Caroline Glick on what’s going on in Syria
No one really knows what will happen now in Syria. The Assad family has been in charge for over a half century, and now they’re gone. Some of the forces – maybe all of the forces? – vying for post-Assad control are noxious as well.
But I’ve long found Caroline Glick’s take on things to be worthwhile. Here she addresses the situation in Syria:
And here’s Glick on political power plays in Israel aimed at getting rid of Netanyahu.
And – could it be that some of the hostages really will be returned? And if so, how high will the price be?:
Speaking about Hamas, he says the Gaza-based terror group is “more isolated than ever” after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. “It expected help from Hezbollah — we took that away. It expected help from Iran — we took that as well. It expected help from the Assad regime – okay, that won’t happen anymore.”
“The isolation of Hamas opens another opening to making progress on a deal that will bring our hostages back,” Netanyahu says.
He promises that he and the government are “turning over every stone” to bring all the hostages home.
I don’t see that he mentioned the election and pending second presidency of Donald Trump, but I think most people know that’s somewhere in the mix.
As I commented under a different topic: There will be a bloodbath.
I predict the Alawite and Druze at the head to the list: They are considered “infidels” to a degree by the conquering islamists. (One of the reasons the Assads cozied up to Shiites was to align with Iran because at least the Alawite are descended from Shiism. And post 1979, Alawites were looking for someone to align with.) The Kurds, although Moslem, are undoubtedly on the list. Probably somewhere between the aforementioned, and whatever Christians are left in Syria.
And let’s not forget the total destruction of ANY non-islamic historic sites. Dynamited like the Bamyan Buddhas.
I am willing to bet that the US knew that the Turkish Army was planning a coup or junta or whatever years ago — and Obama warned Erdogan. Remember when Erdogan arrested all of those military officers?
Assad was a murderous tyrant. But he was better than what is coming, I am sure.
To repeat what I wrote before: The enemy of my enemy is not always my friend — it is sometimes worse than my enemy.
So Erdogan will then move in to “clean up the mess”?
Savior of the Middle East!!
(Cue The Who…)
Thanks for the link to Caroline Glick’s video. I used to pay close attention to her work, but I’ve fallen out of the habit. In this video, she does a good job of supplying historical context.
It’s been quite a few years since I took it, but I’d like to recommend a free online course entitled “The Emergence of the Modern Middle East,” taught by Asher Susser, a professor emeritus at Tel Aviv University.
The course does a good job at providing historical context for current conflicts. Today, we have the fall of the Assad regime, the decimation of Hezbollah, and the isolation of Hamas. Tomorrow, we could see the break-up of Jordan and Lebanon. Even Iran’s government looks shaky. What will the new Middle East be like? More tribal? More wars of revenge? New maps and borders?
Getting some background via Susser’s course seems timely.
Here are the links:
https://www.coursera.org/learn/modern-middle-east-1
https://www.coursera.org/learn/modern-middle-east-2
Jordan is shaky and so is Egypt.
Erdogan used the grey wolves as pretext for the first purge his own associate the late gulen for the second purge
“Assad was a murderous tyrant. But he was better than what is coming, I am sure.” – Lee Also
I agree. A known quantity, however bad, that people were used to. The new “bosses” will have other policies/agendas that will be perilous for many.
Will new alignments and new countries be the result? Or will Turkey take control and become the bug dog in the neighborhood? A lot’s going on, and I have no crystal ball except that there will be suffering.
It’s government breakdowns like this, that should remind us how lucky we have been to be born in the USA.
In the meantime….
“Israel Striking Bases & Equipment Across Syria, Including Assad’s Chemical Weapons Sites”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-striking-bases-equipment-across-syria-including-assads-chemical-weapons-sites
Interesting grafs (RTWT):
I don’t see that he mentioned the election and pending second presidency of Donald Trump, but I think most people know that’s somewhere in the mix.
Netanyahu didn’t mention the election or Trump because Biden is still President. It’s not in Israel’s interest to tee Biden off before January 20.
Berry, looks like the US is joining in, attacking sites
My offer to Hamas, turn over every hostage right away, and we’ll let you live.
She’s confused. The Alawite regime in Syria was not manufactured by the French mandatory. Alawites were present in the Army high command and in the senior ranks of the Ba’ath Party. Particular figures among them were talented at intramural intrigue and seized control of the party and government. (The Ba’ath had successfully established itself in the Army and had agents in both the Syrian and Iraqi military).
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Public life in the Fertile Crescent was at its most congenial when you had competing patron-client formations whose bosses negotiated with each other. In Iraq and in Jordan, you had premier boss supervising. IIRC it was Cecil Hourani writing about 60 years ago that the appeal of military rule and party rule among the Arab world’s intelligentsia was stoked by the notion that it would enhance national power. They were hankering after a mobilization state to replace the crooked (but pluralistic) political world they did not respect.
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Please note that it was sensible for the British and French to work to establish states to succeed the Ottoman Empire. There is no non-geographic political order. The Empire had been decomposing for over a century and at its core Turkish particularism was pre-eminent after 1908. You had two major language groups, you had three notable subfractions among one of the two, you had six notable religious groups and then subgroups among them, you had lineages and local loyalties; you had irrigated agriculture, rain-watered agriculture, and pastoralism. The thing to do was to attempt to optimize on boundaries so that they’d each capture a set of grandees who could bargain with each other. You can see in Iraq and in Lebanon how they made a hash of it.
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She’s also confused about Jordan. The descendants of the 1946 population are not typically pastoralists. In addition to the eastward migrations over the Jordan in 1948 and 1967, you also have a population which derives from the use of foreign labor in Jordan (of which the largest segment is Egyptian, I believe).
Jordan is shaky and so is Egypt.
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‘Sez who?
Except the allawites were pre the french mandate but they were empowered by tbem like the brits did the sunnis in iraq over the shia and the kurds thats what that long thread was about
But the former always think they are in the majority when they are not
In 1949 quwatly a sunni who was the first post mandate pm was replaced by a kurd husna zaim that was one of miles copelands first deals for the cia before nasser
Bedouin tribes transcend borders like the howeitat in the kingdom and jordan the tribes in the sinai and gaza et al
Except the allawites were pre the french mandate but they were empowered by tbem
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From 1920 to 1970, how many Alawites held the position of President or Premier?