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Struggle for power in Syria

The New Neo Posted on by

There are no good guys among the factions vying for power in Syria. Here’s the situation at present, as best we can tell:

Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad is nowhere to be found in Damascus, according to a source, but Syria’s presidential office and Iranian officials maintain he has not departed the capital. US officials told CNN his regime could fall within days. A Damascus resident says the city is in “a state of tension and panic.”

In the south, a new uprising emerged along the Daraa province, with rebels there claiming to have seized a major military base as they charge toward the capital.

On the western edge of Syria, rebels are speeding toward the major city of Homs — where residents are fleeing ahead of potential hostilities between anti-regime and government forces.

Assad is a Russia- and Iran-backed dictator whose family has been in power for 53 years, and in the process has killed hundreds of thousands of people. The “rebels”? They seem to be an al Qaeda offshoot, perhaps affiliated with Turkey. Or are they more like the Muslim Brotherhood, or the Taliban?

It’s a pity they can’t both lose. Of course, in that neck of the woods, if they both lost something else equally awful might end up being the winner.

Comments

Struggle for power in Syria — 58 Comments

  1. Whoever Iran supports, I oppose. Iran supports Assad and Hezbollah. Therefore, I am rooting for the rebels.

  3. I do not feel the least bit sorry for Assad, nor hid family. Most likely family is already on way to London. He has $$$$$$ hidden away.
    Yes, what come next will be bad. Russia is getting out. There will be mass exodus to get away. Assad’s supporters either get out or get killed.
    Understand Iran getting out too.
    This might help Israel in the short term. Hezbollah won’t be able to get arms from Iran, nor will the Palis.
    Will Biden screw it up? Yes, if he can. BO might try too.

  4. @IrishOtter49
    There are conflicting accounts. For what it’s worth, this report by The Telegraph suggests they might be more like the Northern Alliance:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/03/syria-diversity-friendly-jihadists-plan-building-state/
    Of course it can be wishful thinking and/or deliberate propaganda.
    So far, however, I’ve chiefly noticed nudging the “no former jihadist” skepticism by mildly to overtly pro-Russian resources like ZeroHedge.

    The Kurdish prospects look objectively grim, though. Not necessarily because of the winning factions on the ground, but because of Turkey/Erdogan backing those factions and pulling the strings.

  6. Indeed, the Turkish connection, and its ramifications for Iran, Lebanon and Israel, is one of the more “intriguing” aspects of the current resurgence of hostilities.

    Lots of unknowns here, to be sure.
    One result, so far:
    “In first: Israel intervenes in Syrian conflict;
    “IDF uses artillery fire to help United Nations forces repel rebel attack near Hader, opposite Israel’s Majdal Shams; reports say rebels have taken the Syria-Israel border area.”—
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/400356

    + What many have feared since October 7, 2023 is being revealed AND is, due to “Biden”’s defeat, coming to pass…
    Here’s Caroline Glick;
    “A coup attempt in the shadow of Oct. 7;
    “Many fingers are pointed in the direction of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But the evidence says otherwise….”—
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/400372
    Concluding graf:
    “… As the days and weeks pass, and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration draws nearer, Israel’s ruling class is becoming desperate to oust Netanyahu from power. They fear that without Biden supporting their efforts and with Trump determined to rout out their American administrative state counterparts, they will lose their grip on unchecked power. Muallem, Yaakobi, Feldstein and the NCO have become victims of their desperation.”

  8. It’s over for Assad and the Iranian-Russian putzes. Turkey rewarded thanks to Israeli victories in the Leb fight. Hezbollah big losers. Iran’s Mullahs too. Now it’s a race to their bomb or its destruction: which will it be?

  10. Tony Badran a few minutes ago:

    There was something odd about watching the past several days in Syria. On one level, it felt like deja vu from 2012. At the same time it was a completely different dynamic. The difference that set in motion this historic development is Israel. More precisely: Benjamin Netanyahu.

    Benjamin Netanyahu went on the offensive and showed that the emperor in DC and his allies in Tehran have no clothes. By defying Obama’s imperial regional project, Netanyahu altered the geopolitical map. He ran the table.

    https://x.com/AcrossTheBay/status/1865609193685717259

  11. Tony’s thread grew bigger, and is still growing, but here’s some more as I find it:

    In recent years, I have tried to drive home two essential points about the strategic geography of the Levant: 1- The Levant is not a center of power. Rather, it’s the theater of war and invasion route for surrounding power centers.

    2- Israel, in becoming such a power center despite being part of the Levant (basically displacing the role historically reserved for Egypt), is a fortuitous historical anomaly.

    And at some level Obama understood this reality–namely that Jewish sovereignty in Israel was an obstacle that needed to be removed if he was to implement his regional vision.

    He went so far as to stoke Jewish factionalism–the one characteristic of Levantine statelets that Israel had, critically, managed to overcome–in order to bring Israel to its knees.

    The fact, however, is that Obama’s regional project was built on sand. The psychopath emperor’s allies in Tehran, whom he wanted to place at the head of the regional table, could not stand without his propping them up–which is what he did from the get go.

    To do so, Obama even reversed America’s Cold War achievements, returning Russia to the eastern Mediterranean. He spoke glowingly of the IRGC arch terrorist, and murderer of Americans, Soleimani.

    But the fact is that the IRGC are shit, whose militias required the constant support of both the US and Russian air forces. It was artificially inflated and actively propped up, militarily and financially, by Barack Obama.

    Briefly put, Iran’s regional position stood on two legs: 1- Hezbollah. The Iranians have no army. The IRGC isn’t a fighting force. None of the other militias the Iranians have been developing qualify. Their army really is just Hezbollah. 2- Barack Obama.

    When Netanyahu, under the tremendous pressure of empire bearing down on him in order to crush him and his state and people, went on the attack and bludgeoned Hezbollah, he took out the first leg. He destroyed Iran’s army, and with it Obama’s vision.

    https://x.com/AcrossTheBay/status/1865610750296723542

  12. Problem though is that Obama/“Biden” still has time to try to wreak destruction—i.e., defenestrate Netanyahu and foment (as has been the case for many years) civil war in Israel.

    (See the Caroline Glick link above.)

  13. Morning of Dec. 8, 2024.

    Rebel groups have SEIZED Damascus, the capital of Syria.

    Reported- President Assad, Syria’s ruler, has fled that city.

    …President Biden is [now] in Africa, doing a “good feelings” tour, in nations there.

    I predict: will Biden, wherever he is in the world, until February- help [the people in the US], and [the people in Syria], help to end this war and chaos?
    …No.

  14. Here’s the official take on HTS:
    https://www.dni.gov/nctc/ftos/hts_fto.html

    They are Turkish backed successors to AQ. Our Noble Ally, the future Sultan, Erdogan, is more than happy to cut a deal with them, the Russians, and Jake Sullivan’s people. He’ll cut everyone out when the time is right. Israel’s great victory is going to come back to bite them in the ass. Meanwhile we have 1,000 guys out in the desert aiding ‘rebels/freedom (they are always for freedom) fighters/whomever. And stopping Iran. Just like Bolton/Barack/Best&Brightest have wanted for decades.

    Hopefully Trump is actually going to leave and leave everyone hanging out to dry. Including his son in law.

  16. Tony’s thread grew bigger, and is still growing, but here’s some more as I find it:
    ==
    Not buying any of it.

  19. ”Looks like Assad never made it out of Syria. His plane disappeared from radar near Homs.”

    Rumors abound that his plane, a Russian IL-76, was shot down by a Russian S-300 air defense system protecting the Russian naval base in Tartus. That would be fitting. The Russians shoot down more Russian planes in Ukraine than the Ukrainians do.

  21. … Israel’s great victory is going to come back to bite them in the ass…

    Hmm, though I suppose one could say THE SAME about ALL of Israel’s victories, “great” OR “small”…given the nature (and grievances/ideologies) of their adversaries.

    To be sure, the ALTERNATIVE to such victories (great OR small) would be…what, exactly?

    (Of course, there are those who derive GREAT SATISFACTION from blaming Israel for the FACT that after all these years it STILL HAS TO WIN…any victory at all, great or small…as in, “WHY CAN’T THEY make peace with their neighbors??”
    As in, “WTF is THEIR PROBLEM!!!?”
    Or alternatively, as in “Freakin’ Jews don’t know how to lose…”)

  22. …And stopping Iran. Just like Bolton/Barack/Best&Brightest have wanted for decades…

    Barack? Really?

  23. Well if Assad makes it out of Syria alive, he has nothing to worry about. He is probably worth a few Billion $$$$$ and wherever he winds up, he and his family will be living like royalty, but without any responsibilities.
    Sort of like how Prince Harry is living it up in Calif. or the widow of Arafat in Paris, France. (Geez, I wonder; do you think Mrs. Arafat attended the opening of the Notre Dame cathedral?? )

    So where will he wind up?? Russia? Iran ? Qatar?

    Oh, I know; Bashar will be invited to Jake Sullivan’s home – or perhaps to one of the 4 multi-million $$ homes that barry Hussein ocommie owns – to hang out while Bashar finds a new place to live.

    Anyway, now that Bashar is gone, Jake Sullivan and his pals can convince joke Bidet to send, yet again, a few more billion $$ to Iran to secure a lasting peace in the M.E.
    This time it will produce the desired results and the M.E. will see “peace in our time.”

  25. @Kate
    > The IDF takes control of Mount Hermon
    …which is abundantly cool no matter how much Neo is blackpilling us.

    Any linear combination of Saudi Arabia and the Northern Alliance would be better for the region than the Russian, Iranian and, indirectly, Chinese pawn the Assads were.
    I am not counting days or even months until the “Palestinian Resistance” mockery peters out, but years, I do.
    And then Israel and the Ummah can live in peace until Jesus or aliens come, whatever option you find more plausible, rendering the Middle East the most livable region of Planet Earth — exactly as God intended (I am kidding upon the Book of Genesis, but not too much).

  26. Somewhat interesting that the Democratic party’s ‘Struggles’ are happening at the same time as those of Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia…and China (their BRI project includes Iran, Lebanon and Syria).

    Democratic strategist reveals exactly why Kamala lost as he gives dark warning about the party’s future
    • ‘IT IS TIME TO STOP talking about 2024‘ (ME: yeah, good luck w/ that—political parties can go on for decades whining about the past)

    • ‘a political organization that can hardly be classified as a national entity anymore.‘

    • ‘other losing metrics from once-blue states like Iowa and Ohio as worse than ‘a canary in a coal mine‘’

    • ‘It is a massive boulder landing in front of you on the only road home’ – ‘Even worse, my party has largely avoided reckoning with how big that boulder is.‘

    • ‘We can no longer do that or we will find ourselves in an even worse situation than we do following the 2024 election,’ – ‘Now is not the time for quick fixes. We must make real structural changes.‘ (ME: ‘Stars are Lining up’ for AOC in 2028)

    Those were just a few of Steve Schale’s points…

    Well, am gloating again—shame on humble me! Need to read verse two of what I call ‘Two Golden Birds’:

    ‘As long as we think we are the Ego, we feel attached and fall into Sorrow. But realize that you are the Self, the Lord of Life, and you will be freed from Sorrow.’ The Mundaka Upanishad (#2)

  28. @ArtDeco
    > The BoobBC is reporting Assad is in Moscow and been granted asylum.

    @SHIREHOME I told you it would be Rostov-on-Don!

  29. @Karmi
    > interesting that the Democratic party’s ‘Struggles’ are happening at the same time as those of Syria, Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia…and China

    The Old Regime would always support and reinforce another Old Regime, no matter what they say for the camera.

    Build alliances accordingly.

  30. Having the new folks in Syria supported by Iran rather than Russia simplifies Israel’s problems. Iran can be crippled easily by sanctioning its oil business or, if you want to go kinetic, hitting some refineries. Which are nearby and protected by third rate air defenses
    It does not yet have nukes and the avenues thereto are known and vulnerable.
    If Israel manages a mass decapitation as with the pagers, a restive population could be a problem, which is a concern that Putin does not have.
    Whether the new kids on the block will be more or less organized in their attacks on Israel remains to be seen. If they think they now own, in a fashion, are in charge of, are legitimate in, Syria, they may not want to attract a really serious reaction from Israel But if they simply think they have a new and advantageous location from which to operate, what happens to Syria behind them is less interesting.

  31. Richard Aubrey, the general idea I’m hearing is that these “new folks in Syria” are NOT supported by Iran, but rather, perhaps, by Turkey.

  33. This new move by Israel to fortify Mt. Hermon is causing me concern. It looks like a very straightforwardly optimistic strategic land grab. Is Jerusalem proposing to annex this or something? I can’t imagine that, having planted IDF positions there, they’ll be in any hurry to relinquish control on the ground, even if the Syrian situation were to magically clarify overnight.

  34. Why should Israel not annex this vantage point? The UN can no longer defend it. Would you prefer that the new jihadis have it?

  35. ”Richard Aubrey, the general idea I’m hearing is that these “new folks in Syria” are NOT supported by Iran, but rather, perhaps, by Turkey.”

    Correct. There were four groups of rebels fighting the Assad regime in Syria. Two weeks ago the Turkish-backed HTS had the least amount of territory. Assad still controlled two-thirds of the country and was backed by Russian air and naval power and by Hezbollah (which is in turn backed by Iran). The Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) were backed by the US. They held by far the largest chunk of rebel-held territory, basically most of the country northeast of the Euphrates River. Another Turkish-backed group, the SNF, controlled two disjointed areas along the Turkish border.

    Somehow the HTS went on a thunder run and quickly captured the four largest cities in Syria. When Damascus fell, HTS took over all of the government-held territory and, it appears, the territory along the Iraqi border held by a rebel group backed by the Iraqi Shia. So now the rebels which two weeks ago held only a small amount of territory now control about two-thirds of Syria.

    Israel has occupied a buffer zone around the Golan Heights and has conducted over 100 airstrikes all over Syria, mainly to destroy weapons depots. The US has conducted dozens of airstrikes against positions held by ISIS. They have also warned the HTS and SNF to leave the Kurds alone, but the SNF is shelling the Kurds anyway.

    Russia now says Assad and his family are in Russia and have been granted asylum. I wonder if they will move into the apartment next to Yanukovych.

  36. Turkey has had their mitts in this business for some time. In fact, somebody asked why they’re in NATO at all, having interests and cultural practices at odds with civilized countries.
    But, with a new front, new for a while anyway, Iran could see its way into the fray, since they and Turkey both dislike Israel. And some of their other proxies are not operational at this point.
    So Turkey would be same old, presuming only more of the same from their folks in Syria. Iran would be a new deal and would justify being dealt with. The up-your-nose strike on an air defense installation near a nuke facility demonstrates that the defanging can be done quickly.
    But if Turkey gets really big on this, with its own armed forces taking large parts, then we have a problem. What does NATO do when a member, Turkey, is attacked by an ally, an ally at least of the US?

    Is there any reason to think any Turkish/Iranian “difficulties” could not be managed for the greater good? Presuming there are any and speeches by various notables don’t count for much.

  39. Should recommend Douglas Murray on youtube. Brit journo and correspondent. Lots of pieces, mostly about Islam and Europe and so forth. Great speaker and debater but the learning is in what the Muslims or their apologists say.

    He made the point that Muslims are not friends. See…any number of wars and massacres of Muslims and Muslims. The only thing which unites them is Jews living and Jews winning.

    Any Iranian help–presuming Iran dares–will be gratefully accepted in Syria by various groups and any Turkish controllers there may be. Previous disputes on the shelf for the duration.

  40. Possibly not, Iran being Shi’a and the Syrian extremists Sunni.

    OTOH, Hamas (and Islamic Jihad) decided to take advantage of Iran’s offers of assistance in order to destroy their common (Zionist) enemy, though this decision was not, um, appreciated by every Sunni…

    So go figger…

  41. mkent mentions HTS, SDF, and SNF:

    Map showing what areas those rebel groups now hold in Syria

    *******************************
    OT @ mkent – didn’t you say you were going to build a media machine or library?

  43. ”OT @ mkent – didn’t you say you were going to build a media machine or library?”

    Yes, I did, but I’m a few months behind on my projects. At my current rate, I should get my Christmas tree up by April. 😉

  44. An interesting “overview” of the effects of the latest phases of the ongoing “transformation” in the ME, if perhaps with more than a grain of wishful thinking and some inaccuracies here and there.

    Nonetheless, a useful analysis…keeping in mind that there’s no fat lady yet visible on the horizon…though snatches of the song may be faintly audible…
    “ANDREW NEIL: This is a disaster for Iran and the ayatollahs have never been more vulnerable. The smell of regime change is now in the Tehran air…”—
    https://archive.ph/wp4UQ
    H/T Blazingcatfur blog.
    https://blazingcatfur.ca/2024/12/08/this-is-a-disaster-for-iran-and-the-ayatollahs-have-never-been-more-vulnerable-the-smell-of-regime-change-is-now-in-the-tehran-air/

  45. (OT @ mkent – Thanks for the update! OK – back to Syria…)

    How bad is it for Russia in Syria now? The ISW’s Ukrainian Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment is talking a lot about Syria:

    The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria.
    ****
    Russia’s inability or decision to not reinforce Assad’s regime as the Syrian opposition offensive made rapid gains throughout the country will also hurt Russia’s credibility as a reliable and effective security partner throughout the world, which will in turn negatively affect Putin’s ability to garner support throughout the world for his desired multipolar world.
    ****
    Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 8 that a Kremlin source claimed that unspecified Syrian opposition leaders guaranteed the security of Russian military and diplomatic institutions in Syria.

    Snicker snort 🙂 How much does Russia trust that guarantee? Ditto on the Snicker snort 🙂

    Russian authorities have notably softened their language about Syrian opposition groups, with the Russian MFA referring to the actors opposing Assad’s Syrian Arab Army (SAA) as “opposition groups” – a notable shift from Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s reference to such groups, including Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), as “terrorists” a day earlier on December 7 at the Doha Forum.
    ****
    ISW previously observed reports that the Russian military redeployed some of its air defense assets protecting Khmeimim Air Base, indicating that the Russian command in Syria previously assessed that Russian military assets in Syria were not all secure.
    ****
    ISW has collected strong indicators that Russia has been setting conditions to evacuate its military assets from Syria and that Russian military basing is not secure. Satellite imagery collected on December 7 shows three Il-76 and one An-124 military transport aircraft at Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base, possibly in order to evacuate limited amounts of Russian military assets from the country.

    Gotta love The promise of open-source intelligence!

    Geolocated footage published on December 6 showed Russian forces transporting S-300 or S-400 and Tor-M1 air defense systems near Baniyas along the M1 Lakatia-Tartus highway, possibly as part of a tactical redeployment or for evacuation out of Syria.
    ****
    A Russian milblogger claimed that Turkey is allowing Russia to fly through Turkish airspace to evacuate Russian military assets from Syria.

    Meanwhile, many Republicans are looking to save Russia in Ukraine – including rumors about Trump, and also about Kyiv’s Western partners are considering a ‘gilded exile’ to London for Zelenskyy. Sounds like Trump will possibly let Putin off the hook and give him Ukraine…we shall see.

  46. My! What a LYING little scamp!
    What an artful dodger!!!
    What a weasel!!!!

    Alas, Decent Joe be backtracking again…or maybe just maybe he was taken out of context….

    “Biden: ‘Iran made a historic mistake when it launched a war on Israel’;
    “US President Joe Biden discussed the fall of the Assad regime and noted that it would not have been possible if not for Israel delivering blows on Iran and Hezbollah and Ukraine’s fight against Russia.”—
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/400420

    Guess this means one should completely ignore “Biden”’s massive encouragement of the mullahs, of the Palestinians and of Hezbullah, precipitating the October 7 attack.
    (And one should, as well, completely ignore “Biden”’s initial efforts to deny that the mullah a had anything to do with the October 7 attack…)

    Guess this means—officially—that NONE OF THIS is “Biden”’s fault…

    (But of course it isn’t… IT NEVER IS…in just another humorous replay of the Great Obama’s MO!)

    Hey! Do they give a Nobel Prize for weasels?

  47. Now that Syria has fallen, Russia will have more money, troops, equipment and munitions for the Ukraine conflict. Iran will also have more to use in their War with Israel. How long before that is beneficial for Russia and Iran?

  48. How long before that is beneficial for Russia and Iran?
    ==
    You mean they were investing in Syria even though it wasn’t beneficial to them? Do you have an assessment of their objects in other conflicts?

  49. With the fall of the Assad clan, the only redoubt of secular Arab revanchism is Mahmoud Abbas’ gang on the West Bank. Islam is now the motor of revanchism in the Arab world and points adjacent.

  50. Sort of like how Prince Harry is living it up in Calif
    ==
    I’ll wager valves regulating the income flow to Harry are controlled by his father and his late mother’s siblings and that he’s overspending.

  51. My understanding is that Damascus feel to islamists. And that is better than Assad how? I’m no fan of the Assad regime. And I understand that under pere et fils, THOUSANDS of Syrians were murdered or imprisoned. But have people forgotten what life was like under ISIS? What happened in Iran when it fell to the islamists? I predict a blood bath. Any Christians or Druze men remaining will be killed, the women taken as slaves. Ditto Alawites. Shiites, too. And of course, historical sites destroyed, dynamited into oblivion.

    The enemy of my enemy is not always my friend — it is sometimes worse than my enemy.

  52. well those who cannot read a map cannot see that this was an erdogan power move, now he’s a sufi by affiliation, but he welcomes the worst vipers to his bosum, yasin kadi, who we pretend was not funding the golden chain, zendawi who was an ally of bin laden, the late quradawi, the preacher with the stoning fetish, so as dylan would put ‘a hard rain’s gonna fall’ and those who pretend otherwise are just fooling themselves,

    the Damascus peoples front, has set the deposing of the Sauds as their next goal, of course they said in Arabic, so the Western publicists can deny
    it, Gabbard will prove to be Cassandra when this is all over sadly,
    ‘when the gnashing of teeth,’ becomes unavoidable,

  53. Art Deco

    I mean they will both be spending less money, time and material in Syria. For Russia it will free up some for Ukraine. For Iran it will free up some for their proxy war with Israel.

  54. For Iran it will free up some for their proxy war with Israel.
    ==
    One of their proxies has been liquidated as a military force. The other has been decapitated.

  55. Art,
    which leaves more resources for some other proxy, possibly not yet on the radar. They’re not going to invest in Black Rock. Or, come to think of it….

  56. “One of their proxies has been liquidated as a military force. The other has been decapitated.”

    Don’t think that they are out of business. Nor out of recruits. Not as long as the mullah’s are running the show in Iran.

  57. Don’t think that they are out of business. Nor out of recruits. Not as long as the mullah’s are running the show in Iran.
    ==
    The mullahs do not control recruiting.
    ==
    The head mullah is 85 years old. He has a life expectancy of about five years. His preferred successor was killed in a helicopter crash last spring. The current president is a surgeon who does not have extensive religious education, so he’s not lined up as the successor. So, the head mullah’s plan is supposedly to bequeath his position to his son. That worked out real well for Hosni Mubarak.

  58. WRT Iran: They–at least the mullahs–have been dying, more or less, to wipe Israel off the map. That’s their thing. It’s been demonstrated by their actions for many years.
    The fuss in Syria isn’t going to change that. Only some practical issues regarding how to spend resources to destroy Israel.
    The key, as has been mentioned above, is what the next mullah thinks would be a good thing for Iran to do. More of the same?
    And if it’s not one of the Mad Mullahs, what is anybody willing to bet that it means a completely different view of Israel?

    I keep thinking of an Iranian exchange student in our high school, before their revolution. Terrific kid, well-spoken, bright, not the usual Middle East nutcase. Hope he and his family got out.
    There are enough Iranians like him to do well by Iran once the leprous mullahocracy is gone. But if wishes were horses….

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