Home » Open thread 11/21/2024

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Open thread 11/21/2024 — 48 Comments

  1. ICBM! ICBM! ICBM!

    See? It went from Asia to Europe! Intercontinental! All of 470 miles!

    (scoff-spit)

    Such drizzly bullshit we have to put up with.

  2. On Instapundit

    From the late Gerard van der Leun, The Name In The Stone, and Other Essays.

    What do the above reference?

    Posted at 8:18 am b

  3. Shirehome, that’s a link to the website Neo created to sell the collection of Gerard’s essays, and to sell the collection of his poetry yet to come. I hope the Instapundit link leads to booming sales!

  4. With the speed of news these days it can be a problem relying on any single “source” – IMHO. Some are deceptive, many are politically slanted, others can be reported too early—then seconds later a more accurate article comes out, some are just mistakes, and some may have been copied wrong – etcetera.

    Have been discussing Open-Source Intelligence here recently, and want to condense such “sources” and offshoots that use the results of Open-Source info in their reporting.

    Satellite images, local photos, ‘researchers, investigators and citizen journalists’, forensic pathologists, explosive weapons experts, etcetera from all over the world working together to solve ‘Something’. Example of ‘Something’:

    Bellingcat Investigations

    Here’s an example of what might go into an Open-Source investigation – that I linked to in another thread:

    ‘Exploiting Cadavers ’and ‘Faked IEDs’: Experts Debunk Staged Pre-War ‘Provocation’ in the Donbas

    ISW (Institute for the Study of War) is a site that uses a lot of Open-Source Intelligence in their reporting & analysis. ISW covers Iran issues & the Russian Offensive 6 days a week, and special reports on China and other hot spots.

    Here are some sites that I follow the Russian/Ukraine war on: Critical Threats (connected w/ ISW), Militarnyi, IISS, Meduza, Kyiv Independent, The Insider, IStories, RUSI, The Bell, Frontelligence Insight, Oryx, and Janes Intel. There are others, but I don’t have them in my upfront list right now.

    Most here already have great lists of the Israeli war with Iran and its Axis of Resistance.

    My 2-cents on “sources” ‘n such…

  5. because kim foxx wouldn’t do her duty, well she did to overlord soros, he gets away scot free,
    after wasting the time and money of the COPD, after agitating racial tensions,

  6. SHIREHOME – Pit bulls are fine. Pit bulls are needed. But give me a pit bull that has the experience and temperament to have more than a snowball’s chance in Hades of actually reforming the DOJ.

  7. Mike Plaiss – Ted Cruz would be an excellent choice, provided that he’s not too much of a RINO for MAGA-land.

    Also, would Ted Cruz want to do it? He can probably keep that TX Senate seat as long as he wants it. If he’s Trump’s AG its almost certainly (maybe) four years and then out.

    FWIW – I’ve always liked Ted Cruz the lawyer a heck of a lot better than Ted Cruz the politician.

  8. we don’t need to give up Ted Cruz, what have you learned nothing in the last 10 years,

    kobach as an outside shot,

  9. News moves so fast that I can’t even go to the grocery store without something happening! I read several days ago that Gaetz was not expected to get through a Judiciary Committee hearing, even with Rs in charge.

    The next proposed name is surely also going to be someone who will clean out the DOJ, just someone without this (probably manufactured) ethics mess and someone who is not at odds with much of the conservative wing of the party.

  10. Ted Cruz would be an excellent choice, provided that he’s not too much of a RINO for MAGA-land.

    –Bauxite

    I always thought Ted Cruz was considered more of a Republican bomb-thrower, not RINO, well-suited to MAGA-land.

    The fly in that ointment, as far as I can tell, is that in the 2016 primaries, Trump, in one of his truly offensive moments, insinuated that Cruz’s father was involved with Lee Harvey Oswald.

    Cruz has some legitimate bad blood with Trump. I don’t know whether that has healed.

  11. Interesting interview between Tony Perkins and Caroline Glick of expectations how a Trump administration will restore relations.

    This might be perspective she’s already shared, but it might be worth repeating.

    Caroline Glick on Trump’s Triumph and Israel’s Defense Future
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwjlgcOvJ1c

  12. The only way I can lose is if I’m caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy.’ Edwin Edwards (Democrat)

    Gaetz maybe had sex with a 17 yo woman…

  13. That’s definitely “maybe.” Gaetz alienated a lot of people in his own camp, and that’s what came back to bite him.

  14. Jussie Smollett conviction overturned.

    This could put Kamala Harris over the top with the late voters.

  15. Would you ever surrender to people like this?

    Russian Soldier Arrested After Filming Himself Raping Baby In Ukraine

    Russian soldier Alexey Bychkov was detained on Saturday, for recording a video of himself sexually abusing a baby, The Insider reported.

    The arrest comes after Lyudmila Denisova, commissioner for human rights in the Ukrainian Parliament, alleged on Saturday that Russian troops have raped children during the war.

    Don’t expect the Ukrainians to surrender either

    Alexey Bychkov obviously though it would be OK to video his rape of a baby girl…so proud of this rape – if I recall correctly – he uploads it onto his Telegraph channel!? The only reason he was punished is because word had finally came out that the Russians were raping children.

  16. Maybe it’s just Trump=3D chessmaster thinking. But maybe not.

    Two days ago Victor Davis Hanson proposed the sacrificial lamb’ theory, while not deciding between this and the serious nomination option.

    The Daily Caller has the dory, including audio where VDH states this: “Victor Davis Hanson Explains Why He Thinks Matt Gaetz Could Be Trump’s ‘Sacrificial Lamb’ Pick”. https://dailycaller.com/2024/11/19/victor-davis-hanson-matt-gaetz-trump-tap-attorney-general/

    THEN, AGAIN, didn’t Trump tell Biden at the WH only days ago that “politics is a dirty, dirty business”?

  17. @Abraxas:Jussie Smollett conviction overturned

    Reasoning seems to be that if a crooked prosecutor drops charges for a crony, no one can ever bring them back up, even if never bringing them back up was not part of the offer.

  18. So the US finally approves use of “long range” (300 km) missiles on actual Russian soil and the Brits allow Stormshadow strikes on said sad soil. Russia responds by threatening to use ICBMs on Britain and the US (heard on the radio).

    Question, if Russia drops a conventional ICBM on a US base, say in Germany, how will the Russia apeasers (on this forum) respond? By blaming the US, NATO, and Europe, or by finally admitting the facts about Putin and his Russia?

    But in the interim, until that shoe drops, expect the Russia apeasers to continue to carry Vlad’s water. The narrative requires constant shaping.

  19. Ideally, the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security would be replaced with an array of successor departments, the FBI broken up and its management purged, the federal penal code subject to radical pruning, the sentencing schedules re-calibrated, and the federal rules of criminal procedure reconstituted. Little of that will occur. As for the Attorney-General’s job, ideally they find someone who knows who to fire and can get the job done minimizing impediments the Democratic operatives in robes will throw up.

  20. The fly in that ointment, as far as I can tell, is that in the 2016 primaries, Trump, in one of his truly offensive moments, insinuated that Cruz’s father was involved with Lee Harvey Oswald.
    ==
    That was too crazy to take seriously. What might still rankle is the trade of barbs over each other’s wives.

  21. Humble me never understood why so many people didn’t like the New York Time…{sarc}

    Humble has had a subscription for the New York Times since prison…{Ditto on the sarc}

    H/T Power Line, but I used the Epic browser to bypass their paywall:

    Key to Trump’s Win: Heavy Losses for Harris Across the Map

    It probably cost the New York Times more to create the charts for the article than they made off the paper and Online that day. One active chart even shows how my Dixie County, Fla did between 2020 & 2024 – Harris lost 182 votes and Trump gained 161 votes.

    Los Angeles County, Calif showed Harris loss 621,414 votes between 2020 & 2024 – and Trump gained 37,515 votes.

    Change in votes by county partisanship, compared with 2020
    Counties Harris Trump
    Heavily Democratic –12% +3%

    Moderately Democratic –10% +3%

    Lean Democratic –6% +3%

    Lean Republican –6% +4%

    Moderately Republican –5% +3%

    Heavily Republican –2% +4%

    Geez…she is their front runner for 2028?!

    John McLaughlin, Mr. Trump’s campaign pollster, said the campaign was focused on finding supporters who were not reliable voters and making sure they turned out to the polls. He said that internal polling showed that voters who cast a ballot in 2024 after not voting in 2022 or 2020 supported Mr. Trump, 52 percent to 46 percent.

    “The strategy was very much like 2016, to bring out casual voters who thought the country was on the wrong track,” Mr. McLaughlin said. “These voters blamed Biden and Harris and generally had positive approval for Trump.”

    UPDATE: the “Change in votes by county partisanship” chart quote didn’t turn out right, but will leave it since it still shows results with a little effort…Harris has all the minuses — and Trump has all the pluses +

  22. Dance/anatomical question.
    The right foot shown in the illustration has toes of nearly equal length. I live in an area which is a summer resort about three months a year. Lots of feet showing. Such an arrangement is most unusual. Is this necessary or advantageous for on pointe shoes and dance?

  23. While I was checking out my Issaquah property today, a news crew pulled up to take pictures of the place across the street. He has about six or seven trees across his drive. Completely impassable. My neighborhood got the bomb end of the bomb cyclone. My house is not damaged but the drive is so covered in debris that I drove right by at first.

    Meteorologist Ryan Maue:
    “ Another “bomb cyclone” will come uncomfortably close to the Washington coast on Friday.

    Then, the first one will come back around for another pass.”

    Wonderful.

  24. Since a lot of conservatives (not here) are freaking out over this event, let me add a few details…

    ”Putin threatens to attack US bases in Poland just hours after unleashing ICBM in Ukraine for the first time…”

    First, the weapon used in the attack was not an ICBM. It was a 9M729 Oreshnik MRBM, which appears to be a derivative of the RS-26 Rubezh IRBM. The confusion stems from the fact that Russia originally claimed the Rubezh was an ICBM because its development was in violation of the INF treaty otherwise.

    Second, while Russia calls the missile’s warheads “hypersonic”, Russia’s definition of “hypersonic” differs from the American definition. Russia calls any warhead that reaches hypersonic speed “hypersonic”, even if the warhead is just falling straight down from outer space. America reserves that term for warheads and vehicles that can maneuver at that speed, such as cruise missiles or glide vehicles.

    Third, while hitting hypersonic cruise missiles and glide vehicles is beyond our acknowledged defenses, hitting Mach 8 Kinzhal warheads is within the capability of even the PAC-2 Patriots we’ve given Ukraine (we use the more advanced PAC-3 ourselves). Hitting the Mach 10 Rubezh warheads or the missile bodies from which they emerge should be well within the capability of our THAAD, Ageis, and GMD systems (none of which we’ve given Ukraine).

    Fourth, Putin is bluffing when he threatens hitting Poland at this stage of the war. Bringing NATO into the war at this stage would lead to a massive humiliating defeat for Russia. That would threaten his regime. He is instead engaging in informational warfare against the incoming Trump administration hoping they’ll force Ukraine to accept surrender.

    Let us all hope that doesn’t work.

  25. ISW updates:

    1) Iran Update, November 21, 2024

    … The resolution censured Iran for failing to cooperate with the IAEA and comply with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The resolution requires that the IAEA to produce a “comprehensive report” on Iranian nuclear activities by spring 2025. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the report would almost certainly confirm Iranian noncompliance with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and lay the foundation for the E3 to reimpose UN Security Council sanctions on Iran–known as “snapback” sanctions.

    The United States and E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany), prior to the IAEA Board of Governors vote on the censure resolution, called on Iran to “immediately dispose” of its highly enriched uranium stockpile on November 21. US Ambassador to the IAEA Laura Holgate said that Iran should stop producing uranium enriched up to 60 percent and “downblend its 60 percent [enriched uranium] stockpile entirely.” Downblending is the process of converting highly enriched uranium into low-enriched uranium.

    2) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2024

    The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its full commitment to use the prospect of “negotiations” with Ukraine and the West to pursue nothing short of the total destruction of the Ukrainian state despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to posture himself as amenable to peace negotiations. Ukrainian outlet Interfax Ukraine, citing Ukrainian intelligence sources, reported on November 20 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) drafted a document forecasting global military-political developments until 2045 and proposing Russia’s vision of the future of Ukraine — which completely erases any semblance of a free and independent Ukrainian state or Ukrainian territorial sovereignty. The Russian MoD document advocates partitioning Ukraine into three different parts: one acknowledging the full Russian annexation of occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and occupied Crimea; another establishing a pro-Russian puppet state centered in Kyiv under Russian military occupation; and a third part designating Ukraine’s western regions as “disputed territories” to be divided among Ukraine’s westernmost neighboring countries. The document also outlines future global scenarios, prioritizing those where Russia defeats Ukraine and secures a Russian-led multipolar international order. ISW cannot confirm the existence of such a document and has not observed the content of the reported document itself, but the Interfax Ukraine report is consistent with ISW’s ongoing assessments of the Kremlin’s intent to impose full Ukrainian capitulation and disinterest in good-faith negotiations. The content also reveals that the Kremlin, regardless of the US administration or Western actors, maintains the same uncompromising strategic objectives in its war of dismantling Ukrainian sovereignty and bringing about the waning of Western influence globally.

  26. From the ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment of Russia’s plans to 2045:

    ISW cannot confirm the existence of such a document and has not observed the content of the reported document itself…

    …but they’re going to talk about it anyway, because it fits their narrative.

    That’s quite the objective reporting!

  27. mkent, we’ll know more about the risks based on how Ukraine responds over the next few days. They’ve now launched a few ATACMS and Storm Shadows to show they can.
    Will they follow up with more?

  28. Brain E:

    So should Ukraine back down into their bomb shelters (those that can) while Vlad bombs their cities and infrastructure, since Ukraine taking the war further into Russia+ with American, British, and French weapons would (sarc warning) certainly be a dangerous escalation? Especially if NORKs are on the receiving end?

    Rules and limits for Ukraine, no so for Vladdy.

  29. om, These weapons have a maximum range of 200 miles. The su-34’s have already been moved outside that range.
    Did these attacks have any tactical benefit for Kursk?

    The ATACMS have more value in negotiations than using them and potentially demonstrating they don’t have any strategic and little tactical value as well, based on conditions on the battlefield.

    Trump ran on ending the war. Zelensky needs to be mindful that he will be dealing with Trump in 60 days– and trying to scuttle any chance of a negotiated settlement by forcing Trump to continue funding the war by using these weapons and making negotiations possible is very risky. If it becomes clear that the Biden administration and Zelensky scuttled that chance– the American people will be more likely to galvanize behind cutting funding, even without a settlement.

    Don’t forget Trump has a great bargaining chip. Oil prices. Russia has been able to pay for this war based on oil prices ranging around $70-75 the last two years.
    How quickly can Trump get production up and drive prices down to $50? That could have more effect on a settlement than anything done on the battlefield.

    Ukraine needs to understand that settling now gives them a better chance to thrive in the future.

  30. What can I say which will be adequate to the situation?

    Here is the story of the Chinese “crypto entrepreneur” who just bought a piece of “art” at a Sotheby auction consisting of a 35 cent banana duct taped to a wall for $6.2 million dollars, and quoted in the article linked to below as saying that–

    ““This is not just an artwork, it represents a cultural phenomenon that bridges the worlds of art, memes, and the cryptocurrency community,” Sun said in a statement to Sotheby’s, obtained by The Guardian. “I believe this piece will inspire more thought and discussion in the future and will become a part of history.”

    Sun plans to eat the banana, “honouring its place in both art history and popular culture.””*

    It seems to me that there are an almost infinite number and variety of things to spend this $6.2 million on which have infinitely greater merit, and which could do far greater good than this stunt.

    * See https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/11/crypto-entrepreneur-buys-banana-roll-duct-tape-6/

  31. Brian E

    …but they’re going to talk about it anyway, because it fits their narrative.

    That’s quite the objective reporting!

    Yeah, SURE – best to keep Russia/Iran/North Korea Axis of Evil info & possible future info a *TOP SECRET* since Russia, Iran, North Korea and pro-Russia/Iran/North Korea Americans don’t want Ukraine or Israel being prepared…

  32. Day so far:

    Purchased two 2-pack surf onn electronic dusters from Walmart yesterday – $10.98 x 2 = $21.96!?!? That’s like $5.49 a can (before Tax) for compressed air and a straw. Use it to dust desktops and Dell XPS13 lappy, keyboards, computer screens, and fiber modem. This morning I purchased a ME-CA1 Compressed Air Duster, Cordless for $28.99 no Tax and free shipping from MECO. Walmart & Amazon charge Tax and you have to buy $35 worth of stuff for free shipping.

    The purchased this morning happened whilst my Dell XPS13 was upgrading to 24H2 – took 1hr 50min for download and installation so needed to be hooked up to power outlet. 7:59 am EST now, and it just finished updating some other stuff that goes w/ 24H2 – 10 more minutes and wants a restart now…

    OK…lappy looking good after 24H2 update.

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