Election eve
Here’s a thread for the election results.
I’m staying away from coverage for another hour or two, but you can discuss everything here.
UPDATE 11/6/2024 at 12:40 AM:
I’m back. I still have PTSD from late returns in 2020, so I won’t comment on the presidential race. But I think you all know how it’s going so far.
I’ll say a few other things, though, that please me a lot.
Republicans will control the Senate, although it’s still not clear by how much.
Cruz’s race wasn’t even close, after all that blah blah blah from the MSM and the Democrats.
I can’t locate the link where I read the following statistics – and early statistics of this sort often change somewhat anyway – but it appears that Trump has done considerably better than previously with black voters (about 25% of black men), Jewish voters (about 45%), Hispanic voters, and Muslim voters. That’s an interesting mix for a neo-Hitler. And I also read that Harris did 6% worse than Biden did with black women.
It’ll be a while before I go to bed tonight.
Oh, and it looks like George Gascon, the abominable DA of Los Angeles, will be defeated.
And I guess Californians have gotten tired of the rampant shoplifting that has gone on since Prop 47 was passed, because they have voted for Prop 36, which reinstates tougher penalties.
Dermatologist appt in morning—7:40 AM EST—but may stay up another hour or two with the way ‘Thangs are looking…
@Karmi:may stay up another hour or two
Remember how that worked out last time…
Somehow or other Florida counts millions of votes in 45 minutes. Somehow or other, the swingier the state, the more days it takes to count votes.
Niketas Choniates
🙂 I can’t remember last time I stayed up – but this looks like something may break, so will stay at least another 45 minutes…
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/
Ted Cruz made it…great!
Flipping between CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC and the Daily Wire. The first three are very non-committal; the team at the Daily Wire, led by Ben Shapiro, are confident Trump is performing very well. Shapiro is listing county by county, demographic by demographic, where Harris is underperforming Biden. Their stance is; likely highest turnout ever in the U.S. and Harris is tracking below Biden = win for Trump.
Neo, you might want to check this real time NY Times link which, at 10:15pm, has Trump with a 79% chance of winning.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
Shapiro quoted the NYT (I believe), exit polling shows Jewish vote for Trump in New York is ~44%.
Hey how’d Iowa turn out? What with that last-minute huge margin for Harris by that pollster who is never ever wrong?
Everything the media spent a century building they have set on fire in the last 8 years.
Re: Iowa poll
Ann Selzer, supposedly a reputable pollster, flipped Iowa from Trump+4 to Harris+3. Trump HQ called it literally BS. Likewise some of our commenters.
Iowa has been called with Trump+14.
I saw a pathetic interview with Selzer in which she claimed she couldn’t understand what R and D were in some numbers apparently taken from the cross tabs of the poll comparing her weighting and the 2020 results.
That poll’s weighting showed outrageous favoring of Democrats. The worst was older women set for D+35.
The analysis I’m hearing is that Harris must now take all three blue wall states — WI, MI, PA — and that sweep is not looking good.
Mark Halperin, a liberal but usually honest commentator, claimed earlier that he didn’t know how the election would turn out, but his bet was that whoever won would sweep all seven swing states.
If so, at this point Trump wins.
Polymarket: 93%-7% Trump
From a friend:
My very very conservative friend from Spokane, Washington just sent me this. She lives in CO now and hates it there.
“I just read a confession by an Australian man that has only lived here for 6 weeks. He walked into a voting place and they gave him a ballot without checking his id or even asking who he was. He didn’t vote. He was just seeing how easy it would be. If there’s one, how many more are getting them and voting anyway.”
Becoming cautiously optimistic.
The west coast, of course, is knee jerk Harris. North Carolina and Georgia, are strange. There is a huge military vote in NC, but they probably vote absentee, and the remainder are overwhelmed by the University towns. . Georgia is, of course, driven by Atlanta and suburbs.
As a 37 year resident of Virginia, before a necessary move to California, it sadden me that the DC suburbs can over whelm a basically Republican state.
In my family there are smart (after their mother), big hearted, medical professionals who simply would not vote for Trump. Aside from TDS, they really believe in government managed health care and ‘abortion rights’. I don’t know their what their information sources are, but they hate big Pharma, big Oil,etc. My head is bloody from butting against brick walls.
According to PJ Media, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina have been called for Trump.
Polymarket: 97%-3% Trump.
Looking very good. We may not have to worry about overtime.
If so, what can they do now?
Declare martial law?
I want to make sure I’m not insane: look at the NYT front page electoral map. Nevada is the only state that has this disclaimer for not projecting results:
“Counting usually takes days, but new technology and rules could speed up reporting. Postmarked ballots are allowed to arrive up to four days after the election, on Nov. 9”
Counting usually takes days. Remember all those days in the past centuries that it took days.
@huxley:If so, what can they do now?
Dump hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots in the middle of the night…. who knows? Their campaign is saying it’s not over until tomorrow… PA won’t be called tonight, apparently.
Should they actually lose, they’re still in power till mid-January.
They can always decide to ransack the place—in the interests of “the American People” and “Our Democracy”(TM).
And/or let the wide-open border open still wider. And/or increase the National debt to even giddier heights. Ditto with inflation.
(Two and a half months of pure, “joyful” destruction can cause a fair amount of “joyful” damage. Besides, those voters who “did this” to them MUST be punished—“Biden”’s Rule, as it were—especially the bigger names amongst the anti-American, anti-women, National Socialist gangsters…
AAAND Bibi will simply have to go; to be sure, if they’re feeling sufficiently compassionate, they might allow the State of Israel to survive, or at least give lip-service to the idea…but that’s a pretty big IF…etc., etc., etc.)
Nice to see people are still awake.
Sure, there are lots of things they can do, but if the Trump win is big enough there is a future Democrats have to live with, if they want a future, unless they want to go for something like martial law.
@huxley:unless they want to go for something like martial law.
The truck will pull up at 3am with 100,000 votes out of nowhere, they’ll tell you it was the Cleanest Election Evah, punish any lawyers who argue otherwise, and then brag about it in Time Magazine. Just like last time.
So you say. I don’t think it’s that simple. There are limits.
Too big to rig is real. It looks to me like we are close.
This isn’t 2020.
Well, the American people may just have to be saved from themselves.
(Anything less would be irresponsible and “anti-American”…which is something “Biden” would never allow “himself” to countenance…)
Top four states in population: CA, TX, FL, NY. All votes tallied and reported. 100 million population right there.
Nevada is #33. Less population than Puerto Rico for hell’s sake. Might take DAYS.
Especially if a whole s#%tload of ‘em don’t even live in Nevada.
(Have to go around scrounging up those suckers…which takes a fair amount of time. Anything less would be “denying them the vote”, doncha know…)
E.g.:
“It’s 11pm. Why are boxes of ballots still arriving to Detroit’s Bureau of Elections via cars with California plates?”
https://instapundit.com/682547/
Looks like “things” are slipping into over-drive…(or should that be “warp speed”…?)
Been bouncing around the channels. If you really want to hear what you want to hear, head over to Bloomberg TV where they’ve pretty much moved on and are talking of Trump and a Republican sweep.
TX Senate race was never a thing. Beto stinks but his campaign was great about stating “here is an alternate to Ted Cruz.” Allred is a people pleasing nice guy and had no chance.
NYT also won’t completely call Maine, they really want that one EV.
(ME-2 is going red)
Polymarket: 99%-1% Trump
Fox just called Pennsylvania with 90% reported: 51.2%-47.8% Trump.
That’s all she wrote.
Neo I’m sorry I’m making your comments section my notepad but the NYT description of the AZ vote has just turned to:
“Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting typically takes days. Officials in Maricopa County said full tabulation could take 10 to 13 days.”
Trump wins! The biggest political comeback in history. I couldn’t sleep waiting for the results now I can’t sleep because I want to drink this moment in.