Home » Open thread 11/2/2024

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Open thread 11/2/2024 — 51 Comments

  1. Is election fraud a form of insurrection?

    I attended a school with a no-tolerance Honor Code. The nephew of a well-known writer was expelled for cheating.

    At a minimum, election cheaters should be disenfranchised.

  2. This is a story of the turmoil and consequences of a transgender male playing women’s volleyball at the college level.

    This has gained attention when at least four colleges have refused to play San Jose State University and forfeited their games.

    In a scathing Title IX Complaint obtained by Quillette, a San José State University women’s volleyball coach explains how her school’s aggressively enforced transgender-inclusion policy created a toxic environment for female athletes.

    Another reason why Harris should be defeated.

    In 2023, the DoE issued a proposed ruling on transgender male athletes playing in girl/women sports. That ruling created an exemption at the higher levels of competitive sports where the potential for injury becomes higher.

    In April 2024, the Biden/Harris DoE issued the final rule, but there was no provisions for exclusions at the varsity high school and college levels.

    College Volleyball’s Spartan Meltdown
    https://quillette.com/2024/11/01/college-volleyballs-spartan-meltdown/

  3. yeah slamming marvin gaye is a bridge too far, same for sinatra, but they probably didn’t draw inspiration from that current,

    you’re 15 minutes are up paul walk away, on a similar note, smokey robinson endorsing harris, first I was surprised he was still around,

  4. From Dax at 11:19:
    “At a minimum, election cheaters should be disenfranchised.”
    Absolutely. Permanently.
    I’d add some jail time for my “minimum “.
    FWIW.

  5. apparently new york state is focused on kidnapping and killing squirrels, rats well they get a pass

  6. Vote Cheating should be a Capital Crime—and easy to prove for individual/s.

    Both DEMs & REPs are terrible—basically mirror images of each other, with the exception of what each side wants *BIG GOVT* to do to other side ‘n others. Neither is trustworthy at this point – a who is worse – Hitler vs Stalin scenario. Maybe a reliably Third Party will come out of this disaster…

    Some slight shifting in the Betting Odds. Polymarket has Trump @ 59.5% down vs Harris @ 40.6% up. RCP Betting has Trump @ 58.3 down vs Harris @ 40.3 up. Election Betting Odds 56.6% down vs 43.0% up. PredictIt is now showing Harris @ 53-cents vs Trump @ 52-cents.

    Still sticking with my Independents Indicator comment Open Thread 10/31 – that Trump wins with Independents’ help.

  7. Karmi:

    No, both sides are not the same. Yes, you get statists on both sides but WAY more on the left than on the right.

    The idea that vote cheating should be a capital crime is hardly a popular one on the right. In fact, in my 20 years of blogging, this is the first time I’ve ever heard anyone on the right advocate it.

  8. @ neo:

    I’m on the *FAR* Right – so from here y’all look quite alike…

    Vote Cheating by an individual/s is akin to Spying & Treason, IMHO, and last time I checked they were both Capital Crimes…

  9. Cheating is not encourage it is integral to keeping this keystone regime, and those who challenge it, can suffer from death (ashley babbit and the six suicides, draconian imprisonments for simple trespass, even when authorized by law enforcement, pauperization in the case of guiliani, disbarment in other cases,

  10. miguel cervantes:

    Vote cheating is extremely serious and should get more than a slap on the wrist. However, it’s very hard to prove, ordinarily. And it certainly should not be a capital crime.

  11. Well, Smokey is 84.
    Sir Paul should honored that singers, singers that are so much better than he, record his song. Elvis is one of my all time favorites. He put much more feeling into the song than Paul ever could.

  12. Re: Paul McCartney slamming Sinatra, Elvis and Marvin Gaye ?

    Total clickbait. Did the critics here actually watch the video?

    McCartney credited Marvin Gaye’s cover of “Yesterday” as the best of class and noted Sinatra, Elvis and Gaye all changed the words from “I said something wrong” to “I must have said something wrong.”

    First, McCartney was the songwriter and understandably annoyed that S, E & G changed his the meaning of the lyrics without good reason. As well as changing the rhythmic scan of the line by adding more words.

    Second, McCartney got off a zinger by noting, correctly, that S, E & G weren’t owning up to responsibility in the matter. Their line was a sort of non-apology apology.

    If you don’t want to like Sir Paul, I can get that, but this isn’t good evidence.

  13. huxley:

    Agreed. I put the video up because I was amazed that they changed the lyric that way, especially since their version wouldn’t scan properly.

  14. SHIREHOME:

    For whatever reason, Elvis never appealed to me much. It’s not that I hated him or anything like that, but his voice and most of his songs didn’t interest me. Paul’s voice happens to appeal to me more for whatever reason (despite its imperfections in the technical sense, or maybe because of them), and I’m pretty sure that I’d prefer his original to any other version – even though I’ve only heard a few of them.

    I also prefer Leonard Cohen singing his own songs to any cover of them, and his voice is certainly imperfect.

  15. @ neo:

    I should’ve stated Capital Crime for Federal Elections.

    I don’t think a voter voting 9 different time—in a race won by Harris by 8 votes is any less of a crime than some sailor giving China Top Secret docs about his submarine…

    Election Fraud Map

    Didn’t check it closely, but it looks like it is showing voter fraud and convictions…

  16. GC™ couldn’t stand it any longer, figures. It’s documented that you initiate these ‘snark, and increasingly nasty personal comments between a couple of commenters’ (am guessing that commenter meant you and me) – and unlike the other three (+++?) commenters you harass ‘n get snarky with, I have chosen to go Tit Tit Tat Tit with you…

  17. Nate Silver is accusing other pollsters of cheating, or more accurately, “herding”:
    ____________________________________________

    I kind of trust pollsters less because they all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just plus-one, every single state’s a tie.’ No! You’re f***ing herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating! Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys.

    …You are lying. You’re putting your f***ing finger on the scale.</b<

    –Nate Silver
    https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/11/polling-guru-nate-silver-accuses-pollsters-of-cheating-herding-to-make-race-appear-tight/

    ____________________________________________

    Current polls of the race as a dead-heat don’t make sense to me.

    First, that’s not my subjective sense of the race, which is of course subjective. Second, it’s been clear for a few weeks now that Trump has the momentum even by regular polls. Third, the Harris campaign seems obviously desperate, spending more time shoring up its base, while the Trump campaign is ambitious enough to go into blue territories like New York and New Mexico.

  18. Something we’re going to need to learn to do, no matter how next week turns out, is somehow insist on and get reliable polls from the people we trust as sources.

    One of the more common things I heard on the Right this last month is that Trump overperformed his polls in the last two elections so he must surely be running away with a election where the polls show “tied”. But we don’t know which polls have already factored in that correction or how exactly they do it.

    We’re all reading the same blogs saying the mostly the same narratives supported mostly by the same sets of garbage polls.

    I expect that even if the polls are accurate, or underestimate Trump’s support among voters, that it still won’t translate to counted ballots because of “fortification” (which I expect will be visible from space). And pollsters are never going to be able to build “fortification” into their models even if they get voter sentiment right.

  19. In the bad old days the reporters knew who would win by the size of the crowds at the rallies. By this measure it’s Trump, hands down. With modern technology aided fraud, who knows?

  20. Another Dumb, Weak Trump Woman – H/T Power Line, and who is Karoline Leavitt?! Weeeell, she is apparently Trump’s National Press Secretary. From Sara Rose X account:

    HOLY SHIT!

    @kleavittnh absolutely destroyed this ABC host to oblivion

    She will crying herself to sleep later

    Best clip of the day

  21. >“At a minimum, election cheaters should be >disenfranchised.”

    Marlene wrote “Absolutely. Permanently.”

    Quite right! I should have written “election cheaters should be disenfranchised, in addition to severe penalties.” Since they are undermining and trying to unlawfully seize control of our Republic, they may be guilty of sedition/insurrection/treason!

  22. Marvin added other words and touches of his own, to make it his song. And it is more distinctive than Sinatra’s or Elvis’s version. Sinatra’s sounded the most like the original to me.

    Elvis couldn’t help adding a chorus, but from what I heard, he did keep the original “I said something wrong” line. He was probably more aware of having said the wrong thing sometimes and was more willing to admit it than Frank was, or than Marvin’s millieu allowed him to admit.

  23. Be afraid, very afraid, and very very concerned. Or not. The troll doesn’t like being noticed?

  24. File under: “When I’m, um, er, uh, 84?”

    (Or should that be, “Just another ‘Silly Hit Piece’”?)

  25. I find it rather curious that Nate Silver has woken up, as it were.

    Where the heck was he in 2020? Or 2022, for that matter…

    (FWIW, I find polls to be absolutely meaningless, as well…and likely to be Democratic Party/Media ops, IOW, doing their damnedest to conceal, confuse, disorient, derail and deceive… AKA LIE.)

  26. Neo and Huxley:

    Agreed. Sir Paul wasn’t slamming the other singers personally or professionally: he just took issue with their changing the line of a song he wrote, and thus changing its meaning, which he had every right to do.

  27. @Barry Meislin:I find it rather curious that Nate Silver has woken up, as it were.

    I don’t think he’s changed any of his thinking. He’s still a Dem partisan, and he’s still marketing his super-scientific election predictions.

    I suspect that he thinks his model is giving the wrong answers because the polls are herding and that’s why he’s cranky. (As of 8 pm Saturday he thinks polls are lowballing Harris.)

    His model putting out 50-50 may be right based on the polls, but it’s the worst thing for the Nate Silver election prediction business, because anybody can say that without doing any work at all. (They’d be wrong, but this about how people perceive a 50-50 prediction.) You get no credit with the public for 50-50.

  28. Related:
    “‘Something That the Feds Really Need To Look At’: Liberal Dark Money Network Sends Inaccurate Election Texts to Voters Across US“—
    https://freebeacon.com/elections/something-that-the-feds-really-need-to-look-at-liberal-dark-money-network-sends-inaccurate-election-texts-to-voters-across-us/
    H/T Powerline blog.

    Though the insistence that the Feds really have to look into horrendous campaign irregularities that favor “Biden” to be either nauseatingly funny or bizarrely naive (takes yer pick…).

  29. And then there’s this gem:
    “Kamala Harris is Running Ads on Both Sides of the Israel Issue to Appeal to Different Populations;
    “micro-targeting voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan by amplifying different parts of her message on Israel and Gaza”—

    https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/11/kamala-harris-is-running-ads-on-both-sides-of-the-israel-issue-to-appeal-to-different-populations/

    The only question remaining here is, “But in which accents?”…

    (Apologies if this was already linked to.)

  30. Re: Pollsters “herding”

    In physics the measurements of the speed of light started a bit high then gradually dropped, but the ongoing measurements stayed curiously in sync, even when there was a brief bump upwards.

    The delicate, technical term for this is intellectual phase locking. I love that.

    What it means is that these scientists were looking over their shoulders at what other scientists were measuring, then subconsciously — or not — adjusting their results to be in the ballpark of he current consensus.

    If scientists can do this, I’ll bet pollsters can too.

  31. Leaving aside more nefarious motives, I can imagine pollsters being attracted to “dead heat” numbers so they are covered whatever happens.

    Unless Trump wins by a landslide….

    It happened with Reagan in 1980. Which I hold as a possibility in 2024.

  32. Sunday Open Thread: Russian (and North Korean) war on Ukraine

    North Korean Troops in Russia – North Korean Shells, Troops & Russian Offensives – Perun

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vL5IHAEiY4

    Timestamps:

    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:01:17 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:03:32 — Setting The Context
    00:08:34 — The Big Picture
    00:11:30 — Race To Regenerate
    00:16:33 — The Dprk Element
    00:30:40 — DPRK Troops In Ukraine
    00:38:25 — Does This Matter?
    00:43:41 — Response Options
    00:56:18 — Strategic Paralysis

  33. If my amateur forecasting of this Presidential Election proves to be correct – then humble me may come outta retirement every Four Years ‘n predict the next President of America.

    At this point in my training—I have naturally progressed to ‘Indicators’ rather than leaving the Hermit Hut in search of humans to question about who they like for President. Betting Odds was the first ‘Indicator’ to flow into my Path.

    Staying on my Path—the next ‘Indicator’ flowed right up to my feet: Independent Voters. Later discovered that this was brought on by Hillary’s Karma…so to speak of such ‘Thangs.

    Within the past two hours—another ‘Indicator’ has arrived: Kamala Harris has a ‘serious women problem’. Color me surprised—that Trump isn’t the one with women problems, but I should’ve known since most all the Signs have been pointing towards Harris since she first became the DEM Presidential candidate this year.

    MSM distractions. RWM (right-wing media) distractions. The New Neo blog distractions. I had missed the obvious—hey, I am an admitted amateur at this.

    Most of Trump’s main women problems were cleared up in 2015-2016. Everyone already knows about his past ‘Grab ’em by the pu**y’ mistakes, and no one cares anymore. He was found guilty – in the prejudiced Left-wing New York Witch Trial – of ‘sexually abusing advice columnist E. Jean Carroll in 1996, but “1996” says all that is needed to say in that case.

    • Female voters on both sides of the aisle were turned off by misogynistic comments made by top Harris campaign surrogate Mark Cuban last week saying Donald Trump does not surround himself with ‘intelligent women.’

    • And an ‘insulting’ new Harris-Walz ad suggesting women should ‘lie to their husbands’ about how they vote isn’t helping the Democratic nominee either. (NOTE: I think this was the nail-in-the-Coffin for Harris)

    • Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff’s ‘cheating and slapping’ scandal’…

    Pro-Abortionists will be out in force, but Independent Women, and REP Women look at more than the Abortion issue, IMHO. Huxley has mentioned the possibility of a “landslide” – am personally too new at this forecasting to go that far (at this time), but that thought has come to mind. One last thing on Harris’ ‘serious women problem‘:

    HOLY SHT! @kleavittnh absolutely destroyed this ABC host to oblivion

  34. On more indicators, some idiot at Slate online published a screed about how Usha Vance is a traitor to her race and sex and obviously oppressed by her white husband. Usha Vance is a Yale Law graduate and a high-powered attorney (although she left the firm when her husband was nominated for VP).

    AND the internet is aflame about a pet squirrel, whom the NY state authorities took from the home, where he’d been a pet for seven years, and killed him to check for rabies. An administrative letter and fine would have been the right approach. A home raid, including harassment of the owners, was government overreach.

  35. “I musta said something wrong”–Women, amiright? Always upset about how I don’t take responsibility for something I blurted out, or whatever it is they’re upset about this time. And they can never prove it with a transcript.

  36. “And they can never prove it with a transcript.” No problems; they just alter the transcripts.

  37. I have been following Mark Halperin’s 2 Way show on YT this fall. He was all excited this morning about a new Ann Selzer poll showing IA flipping to Harris. This sounded too weird, so I dug deeper and found this:

    https://open.substack.com/pub/skeshel/p/my-take-on-harris-3-in-iowa-and-the?r=1n1to2&utm_medium=ios

    Keshel calls it a psy-op, and I have to agree. It fits the pattern we have been seeing for the past few weeks of media weaving a narrative to make a Harris victory, should she be able to steal one, seem believable.

  38. Sounds right.
    The problem is it won’t even have to “seem believable”….

    (Remember all those statisticians who claimed that the “results” of the 2020 “election” were statistically highly improbable—or did they say, “statistically impossible”?—even the ones who insisted they weren’t Trump supporters… Hmm. Wonder whatever happened to those guys…)

  39. Re: Iowa poll — Harris +3

    Jim Melcher:

    Agreed. That poll doesn’t make sense. I’ve been watching too. However, it did tank the Polymarket betting market from 60-40 (Trump-Harris) to 55-45 (T-H).

    Whatever is going to happen is going to happen. I’m still betting on Trump. Whatever tricks the Dems have left will be during or after the election.

    Kamala Harris is the worst presidential candidate in my lifetime, probably in all of our history. Democrats should be ashamed.

  40. I am so happy Om is still on Earth. That means many gifts can be given to theem to repay karma in the years to come.

    Om has a lot tof pain, parasits, and trauma in their life that they deal with by aggravating and criticizing people online. I am sure this behavior has not changed all that much. Without peersonal self worth and healing, it would not. They remind me of a younger 2006 Ymar. That is why I will give theem special treatment in th bifurcation heh, given my new powers and status.

  41. It’s a slow Sunday night, so I’ll go OT in OT…

    Here’s a guy I find amusing and addictive who describes his journey through guitar with emphasis on gear in tasty 10 minute videos: This is typical Mike Cole:

    –Mike Cole, “Why Guitar Players HATE Jimi Hendrix”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ts2ePmYEQ4

    By HATE he means “Having Appreciation That’s Earned.”

    He’s a young black player whose big influences were Stevie Ray Vaughn, Eric Clapton and John Frusciante.

    Then Cole discovers his Big Three all revered Jimi Hendrix and covered his song, “Little Wing.” Swoon.

    Cole has a lightbulb flash moment. He creates a great tribute to Jimi Hendrix.

    Perhaps too much inside guitar. There’s some wild subcultural stuff happening on YouTube.

  42. Sticking by my amateur forecasting comment yesterday that Trump wins this one. Haven’t made any calls on Senate or House this year since Presidency winner is about all I could handle.

    Interesting Daily Mail (their poll shows Trump 80% & Harris 20% but RWM is no more trustworthy than MSM this year) article – Veteran strategist reveals major factor all pollsters are ‘missing’ as he predicts secret wave on eve of one of the closest presidential elections in history. Er, a “secret wave” this time? Alex Castellanos says:

    .. pollsters are overlooking a huge shift in Republican voter registration..

    ‘I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. They are all missing something because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again’, he said.

    ‘What I think they are missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this.

    ’31 states have voter registration by party, 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement towards Republicans.

    ‘Yet we are getting these surveys that are off base. I’m not going to call it a wave but I think there’s a “wavelet” out there of Republican enthusiasm in registration.’

    OK – a “wavelet” this time instead of the dreaded ‘Red Wave’ forecasts that disappointed so many.

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