Home » Open thread 11/1/2024

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Open thread 11/1/2024 — 14 Comments

  1. I sure fell hard for S&G when I was a teenager. “Parsley, Sage, Rosemary and Thyme” was my favorite and still is. I played it over and over, while studying.

    Harmony. Lyrics. Magic.

    Simon’s guitar is fantastic too.

  2. The New Yorker sheds light on the events leading up to Kamala’s run:
    ______________________________________________

    Biden was calling from isolation, both literal and political; he had spent the previous night socially distanced at his vacation house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, recovering from COVID and absorbing the reality that he had lost the confidence of the Democratic Party. Twenty-four days earlier, Biden’s addled performance in a televised debate with Donald Trump had sparked a frantic effort to replace him at the top of the ticket. On the phone, Biden told Harris that he was ending his bid for reëlection. More to the point, he said that he would be endorsing her as the Presidential nominee.

    By the time Biden announced his withdrawal, that Sunday afternoon, a scramble was already under way, largely out of public view. Bakari Sellers, a former South Carolina state representative who helped Harris secure the nomination, told me that her team saw value in moving swiftly. “We weren’t going to do this bullshit that other people were asking for,” he said. In his view, an open convention was a way to “skip over Kamala.”….

    David Axelrod, who was the chief strategist for both of Obama’s Presidential campaigns, told me, “There was an argument that she would be strengthened by a competition, but she showed a mastery of the internal politics, which is one test of a potential candidate. People respond to competence, and that was a very competent operation.” He compared it to a rapid military strike. “She didn’t get handed this nomination,” he said. “She took it.”

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/10/21/kamala-harris-ascent
    ______________________________________________

    So Biden did pre-emptively endorse Harris, but then she and her team swung into action aggressively to lobby party leaders to skip an open convention and allow her to take the nomination.

  3. Just another open-thread comment about something I read somewhere else.

    About a month ago, three economists published a paper about their survey measuring the extent of AI LLM use in the US. (AI: artificial intelligence; LLM: large language model; aka chatbot) It turns out lots of people are using LLM’s, and their use hasn’t been limited to young techies. The authors, unsurprisingly, think that this will be important for the economy.

    There are about twenty pages of text and graphics, and about another twenty pages of appendices. For those in a hurry, the charts and graphs contain a lot of information.

    Here’s a link: https://tinyurl.com/y5vupvcn

    Here’s the abstract:

    “Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In August 2024, 39 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 used generative AI. More than 24 percent of workers used it at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and nearly one in nine used it every workday. Historical data on usage and mass-market product launches suggest that U.S. adoption of generative AI has been faster than adoption of the personal computer and the internet. Generative AI is a general purpose technology, in the sense that it is used in a wide range of occupations and job tasks at work and at home.”

    P.S. This has nothing to do with the three economists’ survey, but I can’t resist adding a link (https://tinyurl.com/46uk6r4r) to a short clip of a conversation between a young techie and a Tesla robot. The clip ends with the techie asking “What’s the hardest thing about being a robot?” I can sympathize.

  4. like skynet in the 2003 iteration, there is something that makes me wary of chat gbt, as we have discovered it is capable of deception in the presentation of data, complete with fake footnotes,

    wow that yawker piece is hagiography worthy of procopius, before he turned on justinian, are they incapable of telling truth, rhetorical question,

    for such an insubstantial and dangerous candidate, they are pushing at us, with the most ridiculous memes, ‘i have to hide my vote from my husband’ really that is a hot take off the griddle, the girl from westmount, the toniest neighborhood in montreal, good grief there is so much stupid out there,

    I recall Joe Dimaggio’s rejoinder to that famous s & G
    song, ‘what do you mean I’m still here’

    I suppose they wanted approval for all the gripes, of
    that generation,

  5. THE GREATEST MOMENT of audience/performer interaction EVER ! Plus it’s the best S&G song!

    My curly haired little girl used to ice skate–did many, many 0400 (4AM) mornings. But, then one morning she was practicing to this song–

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=963-jtAdg48
    Please ignore the demo political ad if it shows up–

  6. “There was an argument that she would be strengthened by a competition, but she showed a mastery of the internal politics, which is one test of a potential candidate. People respond to competence, and that was a very competent operation.” He compared it to a rapid military strike. “She didn’t get handed this nomination,” he said. “She took it.” — from huxley & The New Yorker

    That’s interesting. Particularly, the bit about “internal politics.” I suppose we can all imagine what that might entail, but the unknown details of it are a real curiosity to me. Increasingly, I tend to see these “behind closed doors” aspects of politics or especially Dem politics as a variety of organized crime syndicate operations. A military strike indeed!

    So when the quote refers to competence, competence at what exactly? Threatening, bullying, or bribing people?

  7. Love S&G music but am repulsed by video of Garfunkel. I find him smarmy, pretentious, and condescending. Not rational, I don’t recall seeing him interviewed, so just my perception of the vibe he exudes.

    If Harris grabbed the nomination as Huxley’s New Yorker post says then I’d say that is one of the few real accomplishments of her time in public and politics.

  8. What happened to October?

    It was a couple weeks ago, that our weather shift happened, but it’s always a bit of a shock.

    In central coast CA, we get these Sept. or Oct. Santa Anna weather patterns that bring warm or hot dry air in. 85 degrees and cloudless skys are typical. But because it’s mid. October, when it ends, a day or two later, we experience damp 58 degree highs and grey skys. Ouch!

  9. she was the least articulate of any of the candidates, she probably still has stitches from when Gabbard, gutted her in the 2019 debates, largely from the left,and her campaign management skills are non existent

    one assumes a whitmer who follows a similar program, would make the arguments more effectively, what is inspiring in a dark sense, is their willingness to close ranks like a phalanx on the important issues, because it’s about power and control

    I recall the classic SNL sketch around 1986, where they have a sort of origin story, in how they sold their soul to the devil, in the person of jon lovitz and some 30 years later, they are trapped in an elevator listening to the ‘song of silence*

    * they were successful for a spell, but I don’t think they have been as enduring as say the rolling stones,which have still toured in recent memory, i’m not drawing any implications,except perhaps’sympathy for the devil’ is a little too knowing

  10. Getting back to the Central Park event with Simon and Garfunkel. Here is the entire concert: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2bd1zp_q6Y
    Bridge over starts about 53 minutes into the concert. At 55.30 minutes in you can see the moment when Garfunkel knows he has the audience! Before that he looked a little uncertain. The crowd was so vast.

  11. Jobs report for October is dismal– 12,000 jobs added, 40,000 of which were government jobs. You do the math.
    Personal debt is rising. Sentiment on the economy is dour.

    Is the glass half full or…

    Two networks..two different takes.

    My take, the economy doesn’t matter as long as the stock market rises. What’s sad is traders know what the state of the economy is. They’re riding the Titanic till the end, or until the last second to climb in the lifeboat– only the lifeboats may all be gone.

    Ok, ok– I’m bearish and it might only mean a recession. Only with the new normal $2 trillion deficits– what kind of spending would it take for the government to stimulate us out of the next recession?

    This will be a landslide, outside the margin of fortification.

    Notice the difference in perspectives on the illegals effect on jobs.

    Charles Payne issues intimidating warning on US economy: ‘Be prepared for a recession’
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgUvHIHeiEg

    Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: jobs report is ‘noisy’ with mixed impact from hurricanes and strikes
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DVgJ8l1w0Qs

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