Who leaked Israel’s plans for attacking Iran?
[NOTE: We can’t totally discount the possibility that these aren’t Israel’s real plans. If Israel were smart – and I think Israel is usually smart, although it certainly wasn’t smart about 10/7 – then Israel would never share its true military plans with the US. There are just too many potential leakers with access. But I’m going to assume that this involves a leak of real plans.]
In the whodunit of the leak of Israel’s plans for attacking Iran, there are – as with most mysteries – an embarrassment of riches concerning the possibilities. There are that many Iran-friendly people with access, unfortunately. Malley would have ordinarily been the most likely suspect, but he hasn’t had a security clearance for a while, so I think he’s out.
But you may be assured that our intrepid FBI is on the case:
Marked top secret, the documents first appeared online Friday on the Telegram messaging app and quickly spread among Telegram channels popular with Iranians.
Ryder said he could provide no details about the probe, including who in the department is working with the FBI, which is leading the investigation.
“The investigation is in its first few days, so it’s important to let that investigation run its course,” he said, adding that the department takes the safeguarding of sensitive information very seriously and will continue to do so.
The FBI is also known for its propensity to leak damaging information about Trump. But in this case, I’m going to assume it would be hard for the FBI to implicate Trump (although, where there’s a will there’s a way), and that the classified information was released by someone in the Biden administration. Who could it be? There’s this theory (hat tip: David Foster), as well as this one. To me, the latter is most likely to have “legs.” But really, there are probably a host of possible candidates.
During Obama’s presidency, the Iran-friendly “experts” started gaining more power in the State Department and in US intelligence in general. It seems to me to be a destructive and dangerous trend that upends many decades of bipartisan agreement on basic aspects of Iran policy, as well as policy towards Israel. That agreement is no more, and hasn’t been the case for quite some time.
Oh good im reassured
I think your note might well be right — they never actually intended to attack Iran, which would be an incredibly risky move for many reasons (without necessarily benefiting their self-defense, since Iran is a huge, rich country that can rebuild any military infrastructure). But it is to their benefit to have Iran BELIEVE they’re willing to attack at any time, if given enough provocation. So they allowed the US access to their “plans,” knowing full well they’d be leaked immediately.
Who is pro-Iran??? Seemingly quite a number of government officials. My question for them is, why????
Since 1979, Iran has promised to wipe out the Little and Great Satans. Apparently, these Iran backers think it’s all a kind of misunderstanding. They must think, “Surely they don’t mean it.” Or maybe they think it’s all an act.
They don’t seem to understand how many Americans have been maimed and killed in Iraq, and elsewhere in the ME, by the Iranians. And the billions spent by Iran in efforts to destroy Israel.
Who are these people? My sense is that no one who is a committed Obama acolyte can be trusted vis a vis Israel and Iran. Barack hates Israel. And that’s just that much more reason why we need to win this election and clean house.
It should be very easy to figure out who leaked the documents.
In the discussion on whether these were actual plans, as the snippet shown in the post @ Grim’s Hall below notes, part of the information leaked was American surveillance of Israeli military exercises likely to be rehearsals of a strike.
While it’s certainly possible that the Israeli’s could have decided to conduct decoy rehearsals that does seem to be a bit extravagant considering their situation.
https://grimbeorn.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-big-leak.html
It would seem that Trump made a wise choice when he decided to defer receiving daily intelligence briefings from his group of Washington DCs ‘Best Friends’.
Who leaked? State is riddled with Iran supporters, thanks to Obama’s closest advisor, one Valerie Jarrett, born in Shiraz, Iran, and who speaks Persian.
Obama may have left the White House, but he also left appointees behind, leftist termites in every nook and cranny, especially in the DOJ.
If Trump can beat the margin of fraud, he has a real Aegean Stable to clean.
My late father took part in Operation Bodyguard, the WWII disinformation strategy used to mislead the German High Command as to the time and place of the Allied invasion of Europe. I would like to think that the Israelis just employed a similar strategy.
@J.J.
My take on your question is that these people are committed Leftist/Marxists who are fully on board with the view that Israel is a white supremist ‘settler colonial’ society bent on establishing a Jewish-Arab apartheid state. As such, in their view the primary cause of unrest in SW Asia is the existence of this aggressive Zionist entity and the primary goal of US policy should be to check Israeli aggression both by direct pressure and by helping to establish a regional power, i.e. Iran, to counterbalance it.
I get the impression that this wasn’t involving information shared with us by the Israelis, this was information gleaned from satellite imaging intel.
That’s the function of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA). They aren’t spies, they’re analysts. They pore over satellite imagery and signal intercepts to glean intelligence about troop, unit and asset movements and preparations as well as just general intelligence about world actors.
I don’t think Israel would be naïve or foolish enough to share details of their plans with the Biden administration, but our intelligence agencies using spy satellites and signals intelligence are still pretty good at sussing things out.
BTW: Back in the 2010’s the NGA was building a brand new facility in Northern Virginia. I worked for one of the government contractors (General Dynamics) on the project for a short time. I was a technical trainer involved in the IT and communications systems being installed in the building (they were impressive at the time). I wasn’t privy to any highly sensitive information or anything…I didn’t have the “need to know”…but I became familiar with the mission and role of the NGA in the intelligence community. I still have a fleece jacket with the NGA project logo on it that I got from that project. It’s very comfy.
Pro Iranian propagandist and Obama holdover Robert Malley is the one I strongly suspect.
J.J. and buddhaha are so very correct. Thanks, guys!
Why does wisdom only come to us when we are old? I know, experience and all that, but still….
From what I’ve read, Sailorcurt has the gist of it. The intelligence is from overhead imagery analyzed by the National Geospatial Agency. It comes with a pretty selective list of people/offices to which it can be distributed because the detail from the imagery shows our capabilities, and one generally wants to keep enemies guessing about capabilities. Actually, the reporting I have seen from NGA did not come with imagery — just a written analysis of what it shows. Other users probably got the real images, but I didn’t need that.
My takeaway from this is that the leaked intelligence probably only described what the imagery shows, and that kind of information probably has a wider distribution than the imagery. That would make it harder to narrow down what office it came from.
I have mentioned before, I found myself and my dog in the Apple Maps satellite view of my yard. From the shadow I am casting you could estimate my height. If this is what they let us deplorables have, I can only guess…
Christopher B., I believe you’re probably correct in describing their mind set. In spite of all that Iran has done, they’re blind to it. For some reason they don’t believe that the Mullahs and their followers are serious and would cut their throats or behead them if they could.
Obama has always believed that the U.S. needs to be cut down to diminish our global influence. He has never believed in democracy and free markets. Like so many lefties, he believes the U.S. got wealthy off the backs of others. Obama and his ilk don’t or won’t recognize the results of recent economic outcomes – East and West Germany, North and Sout Korea, Mao’s Red China and Taiwan – to mention three of the most prominent.
That the myth of the perfect socialist society persists is a monument to the human longing for a place where everyone has a “womb with a view.” 🙂
Christopher may have something. If Israel has a plan for such a strike, faking Iran into defending against something else would certainly be in character. Best way to make Iran believe is to route through Iran sympathizers in DC
It’s possible the leak has worked to achieve the aim set for it: namely, prevent Israel’s retaliatory response prior to the US election. That’s Harry Reid’s sense of “worked”, of course, as in: “Did he win?”
We won’t know until then, sure, but time is ticking fast away.
The easiest target for the Israelis is the Iranian Navy.
30 to 40 corvettes, frigates and patrol boats with ranges over 1,500 km.
They are above ground and on the water.
One bomb each and their Navy is gone with exception of some short range armed speedboats.
Once their Navy is gone attacks from the sea are much easier and Iran will then have to supply the Houthis by air only.
I have listened to audios of retired generals from the IDF and the response to Iran will NOT be a single, one time show of force but rather a strategy like Gaza and Hezbollah where it will be continuous until Iran is no longer a threat.
I don’t hear anyone in the West saying this but I hear the Israelis saying it.
We shall see.
If Israel were smart – and I think Israel is usually smart, although it certainly wasn’t smart about 10/7 – then Israel would never share its true military plans with the US. There are just too many potential leakers with access. But I’m going to assume that this involves a leak of real plans.
–neo
Well, 10-7 was a non-linear event like 9-11. Both were attacks the likes of which hadn’t been seen before. Until they occurred.
But the Dems and Deep State have betrayed Israel often enough, that I’m betting Israel is not surprised this time either. They have their backup plans in order.
For four years I worked at a Silicon Valley hi-tech company founded and run by Israelis. That’s where I made my stock options money. Israelis are serious, smart people.
I have listened to audios of retired generals from the IDF and the response to Iran will NOT be a single, one time show of force but rather a strategy like Gaza and Hezbollah where it will be continuous until Iran is no longer a threat.
John Galt III:
I’m also betting that Israel is timing and calibrating its response with respect to the current US presidential election.
Though exactly how those calculations are calculated is beyond my capacity.
Peculiar timimg, to say the least:
https://freebeacon.com/biden-harris-administration/biden-harris-admin-promotes-pentagon-employee-tied-to-iranian-influence-network/
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/h1ufl700eyl