Home » Open thread 10/19/2024

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Open thread 10/19/2024 — 27 Comments

  1. WSJ, Mike Doran, “Israel Kills Sinwar, and Biden Wants to ‘Move On’“: https://archive.ph/hYEgy

    President Biden sees the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as an opportunity to end the war in Gaza. “It’s time for this war to end and bring these hostages home,” Mr. Biden said to reporters Thursday in Berlin. He said he had spoken with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about how “we secure Gaza and move on.” Based on a fundamental misunderstanding of Middle East realities, this gambit is likely to fail.

    The presidential election makes a peace initiative irresistible to Democratic Party leaders. If a cease-fire were achieved, Kamala Harris could celebrate it not only as a major foreign-policy achievement, but also one that benefits Israel. She could counter attacks from Donald Trump that she is inexperienced and hostile to the Jewish state.
    […]
    Mr. Biden’s cease-fire initiative will likely come with a demand for even more restraint by Israel against Iran. Mr. Netanyahu may or may not heed such counsel. If he does, he will then pursue “total victory” in Gaza and Lebanon even more urgently—if only to prove that Iran and its proxies can’t use America to restrain Israel so they can shoot at it with impunity.

  2. I didnt know that one thanks

    Yes shamblings string pullers are rather sloppy whose in charge flip a coin

    Meanwhile hezbollah tried to drone bibis summer home because reasons

    All told its always better to ignore the regime frankly prince salman should have kept bombing thr houthis

  3. Yes, we are very aware of the Silver Clock, tick, ticking, ticking.
    I am now 78 and my Darling Wife will 78 in Oct.
    I am a Prostate Cancer Survivor. My Wife has been in treatment for Lymphoma since Feb, with more to come (if anyone knows what CAR-T is, then you know much more to come).
    We have lived, I think, full lives. No kids, not by choice. We have traveled the World. Looking to the future, we have a vacation scheduled for Ap, 2025.
    Yes, the Silver Clock is ticking, ticking, ticking.

  4. Just another open-thread comment from someone who’s no fun at parties.

    Given the current political circumstances, I’ll happily vote for Trump, but I won’t pretend to like his personality. To me, it’s obvious that DeSantis would be a better president, and it’s troubling to consider the reasons why so many more people are inspired by Trump. Harris is too awful to contemplate, and despite recent polls, I still think that we’ll soon be blessed with our first female president.

    As a natural pessimist, it’s no surprise that I’d like to recommend Joel Kotkin’s latest opinion piece entitled “Can the West survive four years of Harris or Trump?” (https://tinyurl.com/2hmypz24).

    Here’s Kotkin’s second paragraph:

    “The US, still the world’s only true empire, now confronts the reality of two unserious presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, each threatening its viability. Americans and the rest of what’s left of the liberal world have to hope that our intrinsic advantages in demography, finance, technology and resources will survive the presidencies of either of these awful candidates.”

    For the rest of the essay, Kotkin takes the trouble to explain himself. Even if I don’t agree with all of it, I’m sympathetic, and I think it’s worth a look.

  5. Cornflour,

    I understand what you are saying if this was 2016. However, we now have data on what sort of administration Trump will have from 2016 to 2020. And, I think he learned from his mistakes in the previous term and I don’t think he will repeat them.
    The US was thriving under Trump’s first term, and was derailed by COVID. I don’t know how one can ignore that fact.

    I actually switched my registration from independent to GOP thinking I was going to vote for DeSantis in the primary as temperamentally I like him better…that didn’t happen obviously. I’m fine with Trump now, and hoping for DeSantis in 4 years.

  6. Hamas members starting to surrender? Just saw “400+ Palestinians Killed in North Gaza Assault” under Explore on X – followed it and:

    400+ Palestinians Killed in North Gaza Assault

    Checked these two there:

    Hundreds of Hamas terrorists have begun surrendering to the IDF in Northern Gaza.

    Gaza: The wall of fear of Sinwar is broken: hundreds of civilians begin to leave Jabalia into a safe area with Israel’s army protection, the IDF spokesperson reports today.

    Nothing seems official so asked Grok on X:

    Is hamas surrendering
    Answer
    Based on the information available up to October 19, 2024, there are conflicting reports and sentiments regarding Hamas’s surrender. Here’s what the data reflects:

    Public Statements and Social Media: There are posts on X suggesting that hundreds of Hamas members have started to surrender, particularly in northern Gaza. These posts mention an ultimatum given by the IDF, indicating that some segments of Hamas might be choosing to surrender rather than face continued military action.

    • Official and Unofficial Reactions: However, there’s also mention of Hamas officials, like Khalil al-Hayya, stating that the death of a leader like Yahya Sinwar would only strengthen their resolve, suggesting no immediate intention to surrender as a group.
    • Misinformation and Speculation: There have been instances of misinformation, for example, claims circulated on social media about Hamas surrendering or major leaders surrendering which were later debunked.
    • Military and Political Context: The Israeli military operations aimed at Hamas have led to significant casualties among Hamas fighters and infrastructure damage. This might pressure some members or factions within Hamas to consider surrendering, but organizational surrender or a formal capitulation from Hamas leadership has not been confirmed.
    • Public Sentiment and Media: X posts reflect a variety of sentiments, from calls for Hamas to surrender to observations of individual or small group surrenders, but these do not necessarily represent an official or widespread surrender by Hamas.

    Given this, while there are reports of individual surrenders and tactical retreats by some Hamas members, there’s no conclusive evidence or official statement indicating a comprehensive surrender by Hamas as an organization. The situation remains fluid, with actions on the ground potentially not fully aligned with official stances or broader organizational policy. Always consider that real-time events can be misrepresented or exaggerated on social media, and official statements from recognized authorities or neutral observers would be necessary to confirm such significant developments.

    (UPDATE – Note: updated my X subscription from $8 a month to $84 a year (think that was it??) yesterday.

  7. Re: Harris / law school
    ______________________________________

    SAN FRANCISCO — As a scandal rocked the city’s crime lab in 2010, District Attorney Kamala D. Harris was increasingly at odds with the city’s elected public defender, Jeff Adachi. He accused her of being “unethical,” and she said he was “playing politics with public safety,” according to media reports at the time.

    The fight was, on one level, an example of a prosecutor and defense attorney playing their respective roles. But it was all the more extraordinary because the two had been friends for years.

    Adachi had been Harris’s tutor when they were at the University of California’s Hastings College of the Law in San Francisco.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kamala-harris-grew-up-with-jeff-adachi-then-tragedy-struck-/2019/03/06/2b8e93f2-3c70-11e9-a06c-3ec8ed509d15_story.html
    ______________________________________

    I know a few lawyers. None of them received tutoring.

  8. Well, that video was a weird musical interlude. A very sweaty one, I might add.

    There is that strange instrument too. It could be a violin or an electronic keyboard with a pitch wheel, but it actually sounds like a theremin to me. No indication on the Youtube site about it.

  9. From sdferr’s WSJ opinion link: “[Biden} said he had spoken with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about how “we secure Gaza and move on.”

    What do you mean, “we,” Kemosabe? Biden has tried to thwart Netanyahu on securing Gaza from the beginning.

  10. In the book AI Snake Oil, the authors report that someone asked ChatGPT to explain how to remove a peanut butter sandwich from a VCR player–and to do so in the style of the King James Bible, I thought it did a pretty credible job, and I asked Perplexity to summarize the Cuban Missile Crisis in biblical style. Here’s what it said:

    https://www.perplexity.ai/search/please-summarize-the-cuban-mis-nqx2iE__TauK.ZZQ7G0nmg

    I then asked it tell the story of the Crisis as it might be told by a leftist, feminist academic:

    https://www.perplexity.ai/search/please-tell-me-the-story-of-th-M7SAdY4oQLS2RGohoPjxtw

  11. Many people i know wanted to make sure that desantis was available for florida

    To say Trump is unserious is itself unserious

  12. Cuban missile crisis, King James style:

    And it came to pass in the year of our Lord nineteen hundred and sixty-two, in the tenth month, that a great tribulation befell the nations of the earth[1].

    For lo, the kingdom of the Soviets had secretly placed weapons of terrible destruction upon the isle of Cuba, which lieth nigh unto the shores of America[1][4].

    And when it was discovered by the spies of America, President Kennedy, son of Joseph, was sore afraid[4]. He gathered unto him his wise men and counselors, that they might devise a plan to save their people from destruction[2].

    And Kennedy spake unto his people, saying, “Behold, our enemies have brought their swords to our very gates. We shall not suffer this transgression, but shall make a wall of ships round about Cuba, that no more weapons may pass”[2][4].

    Then did the leaders of America and the Soviets exchange many messages, each man seeking to prevail over the other[2]. And the world trembled, for the shadow of death was upon all the earth[1].

    But lo, on the twenty-eighth day of the month, Khrushchev, leader of the Soviets, sent word unto Kennedy, saying, “We shall remove our weapons from Cuba, if thou wilt promise not to invade this land”[1][2].

    And there was great rejoicing throughout the lands, for the threat of war had passed[4]. Yet the people knew not that Kennedy had also agreed in secret to remove his own weapons from the land of Turkey[2].

    Thus ended the Cuban Missile Crisis, and though peace was restored, the nations continued to watch one another with wary eyes[4]. For the hearts of men are ever filled with suspicion and the desire for power.

    Citations:
    [1] https://www.britannica.com/event/Cuban-missile-crisis
    [2] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis
    [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Saturday_(Cuban_Missile_Crisis)
    [4] https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/cuban-missile-crisis
    [5] https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/cuban-missile.html
    [6] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/publication/CWHIP_Bulletin_17-18_Cuban_Missile_Crisis_v2_s5_Non-Communist_Europe_Israel.pdf
    [7] https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book-special-exhibit/cuba-cuban-missile-crisis-russia-programs/2022-10-04/cuban-missile
    [8] https://www.wcfia.harvard.edu/files/wcfia/files/jd_missile_crisis.pdf

  13. Cuban missile crisis, leftist-feminist-academic style:

    A leftist, feminist academic perspective on the Cuban Missile Crisis would likely reframe the traditional narrative in several key ways:

    ## Challenging the Great Man Theory

    The conventional telling of the Cuban Missile Crisis often focuses on the actions of individual male leaders, particularly John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. A feminist approach would critique this “great man” framing of history[1]. Instead, it would emphasize how the crisis arose from broader systemic issues and involved many actors beyond just the top leaders.

    ## Exposing Toxic Masculinity

    A feminist analysis would highlight how performances of masculinity and machismo exacerbated tensions during the crisis[2]. The emphasis on “toughness” and unwillingness to back down or appear weak likely prolonged the standoff and increased the risk of nuclear war. The rejection of more “feminine” approaches like diplomacy and negotiation would be seen as a dangerous manifestation of toxic masculinity in international relations.

    ## Centering the Experiences of Marginalized Groups

    Rather than focusing solely on high-level political maneuvering, a leftist feminist perspective would draw attention to how the crisis impacted ordinary people, especially marginalized groups. This could include examining the experiences of women, racial minorities, and working-class people who bore the brunt of civil defense preparations and lived under the shadow of potential nuclear annihilation.

    ## Critiquing Imperialism and Colonialism

    A leftist analysis would situate the crisis within the broader context of American imperialism in Latin America and the Caribbean[1]. It would likely be more sympathetic to Cuba’s right to self-determination and critical of U.S. attempts to overthrow the Castro government. The deployment of Soviet missiles would be framed partly as a response to legitimate Cuban security concerns in the face of U.S. aggression.

    ## Emphasizing Structural Violence

    Rather than celebrating the peaceful resolution of the crisis, a leftist feminist view might emphasize how it perpetuated structural violence inherent in the nuclear arms race and Cold War geopolitics[3]. The fact that the crisis was “solved” by secret deals between superpowers, without input from the Cuban people, would be seen as problematic from an anti-colonial perspective.

    ## Reframing “Strategic Empathy”

    Some feminist scholars have reinterpreted Kennedy’s actions during the crisis through the lens of “strategic empathy” rather than masculine toughness[3]. This framing suggests that Kennedy’s ability to understand and relate to Khrushchev’s fears and motivations was key to finding a peaceful resolution, rather than simply outmaneuvering him.

    By challenging traditional power-centric narratives and exposing gendered and colonial dimensions of the crisis, a leftist feminist retelling would aim to provide a more holistic understanding of this pivotal moment in Cold War history. It would likely conclude by connecting the lessons of the crisis to contemporary struggles for peace, justice, and decolonization.

    Citations:
    [1] https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/98/4/1129/6628392?login=false
    [2] https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/07/feminist-and-postcolonial-approach-nuclear-politics
    [3] https://warpreventioninitiative.org/peace-science-digest/from-the-cuban-missile-crisis-to-russias-war-in-ukraine-strategic-empathy-as-feminist-foreign-policy/
    [4] https://journals.openedition.org/ejas/12186
    [5] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MfPCElEQlf8
    [6] https://www.nti.org/atomic-pulse/ask-the-experts-the-60th-anniversary-of-the-cuban-missile-crisis/
    [7] https://www.jfklibrary.org/events-and-awards/kennedy-library-forums/past-forums/transcripts/the-cuban-missile-crisis-an-eyewitness-perspective
    [8] https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301296389_My_Missile_is_Bigger_than_Yours_a_Gender_Analysis_of_Decision_Making_by_the_Executive_Committee_of_the_United_States_National_Security_Council_during_the_Cuban_Missile_Crisis

  14. “I know a few lawyers. None of them received tutoring.”
    How did the Boss say it just yesterday? Something about Kamala “not being the sharpest knife in the drawer.”

  15. Summarizing my post:

    This article discusses the 62nd anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis and its relevance to current nuclear threats. The author recounts a personal experience from Boris Chertok’s memoir “Rockets and People,” which provides a firsthand account of the crisis from the Soviet perspective.

    Key points:

    1. On October 27, 1962, Chertok witnessed increased military activity at a Soviet missile facility, indicating heightened alert status.

    2. Colonel Kirillov informed Chertok about orders to prepare a combat missile with a nuclear warhead, replacing a planned Mars probe launch.

    3. The article describes the tension and uncertainty felt by Soviet personnel during the crisis, including their concerns about the possibility of nuclear war.

    4. A scene is depicted where Soviet officials anxiously await news while drinking cognac and eating watermelon, unsure if it might be their “last drink.”

    5. The crisis was ultimately resolved, with Chertok receiving an “All clear” message.

    6. Chertok reflects on how few people were aware of how close the world came to nuclear war, and how restraint from both Khrushchev and Kennedy prevented catastrophe.

    7. The article emphasizes the lasting impact of the Cuban Missile Crisis and its lessons for current nuclear threats[1][2][3][4][5][6].

    Citations:
    [1] https://unwritten-record.blogs.archives.gov/2022/10/20/60th-anniversary-the-cuban-missile-crisis/
    [2] https://www.britannica.com/event/Cuban-missile-crisis
    [3] https://history.state.gov/milestones/1961-1968/cuban-missile-crisis
    [4] https://www.jfklibrary.org/learn/about-jfk/jfk-in-history/cuban-missile-crisis
    [5] https://www.nti.org/atomic-pulse/ask-the-experts-the-60th-anniversary-of-the-cuban-missile-crisis/
    [6] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/50th-anniversary-the-cuban-missile-crisis
    [7] https://wtop.com/back-in-the-day/2024/10/today-in-history-october-16-cuban-missile-crisis-begins/
    [8] https://chss.gmu.edu/events/2842

  16. I have a problem with French male voices other than Jean-Jacques Goldman (whom I would say is the French Paul McCartney).

    Jacques Brel was a great songwriter (film star too). Hands down. I’m happy that he sings so slowly that I have a good shot at understanding the words. I do find his sweatiness odd, as TommyJay notes. Still I prefer English covers of his songs.

    Judy Collins did a few Brel songs after she broke out of her folksinger mode. But the one which really jumped out at me was Scott Walker’s electrifying version of Brel’s “La chanson de Jacky.”

    Scott Walker – Jackie
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKtZf62BQzM

    Jacques Brel — La chanson de Jacky (Discorama, 1966)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffErt5gJmIE

    Scott Walker was a member of a second-tier mid-60s LA rock group, the Walker Brothers. He moved to Europe and didn’t look back. He even enjoyed a weird resurgence in the 21st century as an avant-garde musician.

    Of course, they are both dead. Brel much earlier of lung cancer in 1978. When he realized he was ill in 1973, he devoted the rest of his life to sailing. He seems to have been an admirable man.

  17. Ah, but of course:
    JPost, “US intelligence documents outlining Israel’s potential attack plan on Iran leaked – report
    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-825249

    Senior American officials voiced serious concern on Saturday following the leak of two US intelligence documents allegedly outlining Israel’s preparations for a potential strike on Iran. These documents were published by a Telegram account linked to Iran.

    While both the US Department of Defense and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the leaked documents, they did not deny their authenticity.

    The timing of the leak comes as Israel is completing preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran in response to the October 1 missile attack. An unnamed senior Israeli official remarked, “Israel’s defense establishment is aware of the leak and takes it very seriously.”
    […]
    The documents included an alleged report from the US Department of Defense’s visual intelligence agency, which had been circulated within the US intelligence community three days earlier. The report detailed alleged recent actions at Israel Air Force (IAF) bases, including the movement of advanced munitions believed to be intended for a strike on Iran. The report also noted that intelligence obtained through wiretaps indicated that the IAF conducted an exercise this week involving fighter jets and drones as part of its strike preparations.

    Malley’s moles are very busy.

  18. I can understand the French, with the help of the English subtitles. But what a dreadful song! I went to the funeral of a good friend, thirteen years older, today. She died in faith, hope and love, unlike the sad tick-tock of the silver clock in this song.

  19. If this is a genuine leak from the IDF, the leakers should be identified and shot, whether Israeli or American. Or perhaps it’s a feint.

  20. Don’t think the leak issues from Israel, but from the US. But we’ll have to wait a long time for definitive answers.

  21. Kate:

    I don’t think there’s any reason to think Brel is trying to describe every older person’s state. He is speaking of those who are relatively alone, infirm, worn out. It’s a song somewhat similar to John Prine’s “Hello In There,” if you’re familiar with that one.

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