Former Vice President Mike Pence said Friday he does not intend to endorse or wade into the presidential race this November, expressing concerns about the direction of the Republican Party while criticizing the Democratic agenda.
I know, Trump and MAGA supporters ‘don’t need no stinking Pence or his voters!’ Is the Republican party starting to ‘Bleed’ voters? I didn’t like Pence from the beginning, still don’t, but figured Trump knew what he was doing.
…………
Trump and his MAGA supporters ‘ThOuGhT’ (are they actually capable of such?!?) it would be a great idea to to kill the border bill six+ months ago in order to blame Biden for the immigration issues during the lead-up to November election.
The Senate might pass the plan, which would be one of the harshest immigration bills of the century. President Biden is ready to sign it. But House Republicans — egged on by former President Trump — already are planning to shut it down.
Vice President Kamala Harris promised to fight for “strong border security,” going after Donald Trump for killing immigration legislation that would have curtailed asylum and promising to sign such a bill into law if elected.
Harris blamed Trump for the failure of Congress to pass a bipartisan border deal earlier this year: “He talks a big game about border security but he does not walk the walk,” Harris said to a raucous Sun Belt crowd.
Jeez…she is literally cramming Trump’s own words down his throat…
The Florida troll, quoting the Joyous Cackler now.
Are immigration controls one of those “man made laws” he trolls about?
Who knows (or really cares)?
om the ‘Gay Commenter‘ can’t resist flirting with male commenters…Jeez, time to come outta the closet dudess…
Karmi:
What is this, junior high? “Gay Commenter”? “Dudess”?
I think that “om” is trying to point out the fact that lately you appear to have sometimes taken on the role of someone who enjoys spreading doom.
Harris’s promise to get tough on immigration is not credible, given the Biden/Harris administration record, nor was the bill Democrats pushed an actual immigration control bill.
Harris is going to get tough on the border, which she was never in charge of and was never in crisis except when it was Trump’s fault.
Harris is going to tame inflation, which was solved a long time ago and was Trump’s fault.
Harris is going to hide in the basement until November, while the press invents nothing but good things to say about her and nothing but bad things to say about Trump.
It may be that the media has already blown its credibility with enough people that this doesn’t work; they do have election shenanigans to fall back on regardless of what voters think or don’t.
The point is, there’s a lot of headwind. Republican voters got really excited over the last month and forgot about these headwinds, but they’ve always been there (and a few of us have consistently said so).
The election is at best a tossup. This is not new.
It would be the better part of wisdom, to have a plan for weathering decades of one-party rule supported by openly partisan media and lawfare. If the election goes our way, then have a plan for weathering the violence and lawfare that will be unleashed in retaliation. Getting caught up in the horse race drama and the narratives that the media sells between now and then is not only a distraction but it is what the media counts on from those who follow it.
I skip over Karmi’s posts.
That video title about Chopin losing his magic, fortunately, turned out to be total nonsense. I’ve never learned about the functions of the pedals on the piano. But it seems they’re rather important after all.
“This is one reason why Chopin could do things that you can’t.”
The ignorance and indifference of people to their fate that is a problem.
Remember what we said about getting older im probably the youngest in this crew but i already feel like methuselah
So oeggy noonan maggie haberman anyone buying a bridge from them yo no (im not)
Im a little older than my grandfather was when the wandering coma descended on cuba courtesy of foggy bottom the times and the company
Did you get your book site back up irish
Miguel, you are wise beyond your years.
Miguel is wise, but hides his light under a bushel of cryptic terseness. I only point this out because I think if he made his commentary more accessible, a lot of people would benefit.
On the other hand, cryptic terseness is a skill we all may have to learn soon if we want to participate online without risk of losing our jobs, bank accounts, and access to credit. The algorithms are tuned to keywords, and the people acting on what the algorithms dig up are increasingly unable to read anything for themselves.
For those like me who give political donations, here are some close House races targeted by the Republicans
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom in Alaska’s at-large district, challenging Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D)
Caroleene Dobson in Alabama’s 2nd District, which Rep. Barry Moore (R) is vacating to run in a different district
Kevin Lincoln in California’s 9th District, challenging Rep. Josh Harder (D)
Scott Baugh in California’s 47th District, which Rep. Katie Porter (D) is vacating since she ran for Senate
Matt Gunderson in California’s 49th District, challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D)
Jeff Hurd in Colorado’s 3rd District, which Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) is vacating as she runs in a different district
Gabe Evans in Colorado’s 8th District, challenging Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)
George Logan in Connecticut’s 5th District, challenging Rep. Jahana Hayes (D)
Joe McGraw in Illinois’s 17th District, challenging Rep. Eric Sorensen (D)
Randy Niemeyer in Indiana’s 1st District, challenging Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D)
Prasanth Reddy in Kansas’s 3rd District, challenging Rep. Sharice Davids (D)
Austin Theriault in Maine’s 2nd District, challenging Rep. Jared Golden (D)
Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th District, which Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) is vacating as she runs for Senate
Joe Teirab in Minnesota’s 2nd District, challenging Rep. Angie Craig (D)
Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina’s 1st District, challenging Rep. Don Davis (D)
Yvette Herrell in New Mexico’s 2nd District, challenging Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) for the seat she previously held
John Lee in Nevada’s 4th District, challenging Rep. Steven Horsford (D)
Alison Esposito in New York’s 18th District, challenging Rep. Pat Ryan (D)
Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th District, challenging Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
Kevin Coughlin in Ohio’s 13th District, challenging Rep. Emilia Sykes (D)
Monique DeSpain in Oregon’s 4th District, challenging Rep. Val Hoyle (D)
Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th District, challenging Rep. Susan Wild (D)
Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, challenging Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
Rob Mercuri in Pennsylvania’s 17th District, challenging Rep. Chris Deluzio (D)
Mayra Flores in Texas’s 34th District, challenging Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) for a seat she previously held after winning a special election in 2022
Derrick Anderson in Virginia’s 7th District, which Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is vacating
I dare an ai to try to copy me, it would go norman the android fully
They say fiction has to make sense internally lord knows realitly doesnt
Of mike pence i have said my piece not to take sides is a choice in itself
Karmi, tell me the advantages of the “bipartisan” immigration bill over the House HR2 border control bill. Which did you support?
Miguel is wise, but hides his light under a bushel of cryptic terseness.
I thoroughly enjoy Miguel’s writing style, his so-called cryptic terseness. To me, it shines very brightly.
Don’t ever change, Miguel!
P.S. I’ll answer your question about my website after make some inquiries with neo.
I have little tolerance for such rank idiocy and equivocation
She enabled this invasion of 10-15 million people a camp of the saints from every cornsr of the earth and then pretends otherwise
She makes neccessities luxuries and luxuries unaffordable then jive talks about lowering prices
Assume what she has advanced come to pass even a small portion it will become nasty brutish and short for many
“What is this, junior high?
No, it’s the prison shower.
neo:
So “Florida troll” is OK? Anyway, om has been following me around the board since my first day here – sniping & snipping and name calling. He followed other male blog commenters before me. Follows other new male members besides me. He acts gay – like a gay stalker in the men’s bathroom…
Brian E:
My point was Trump, House Republicans plot to kill border deal – it didn’t matter how good or bad a border/immigration bill was or even how bipartisan or anything else. Trump and the GOP House wanted to hang the border/immigration issue/s around Biden’s & DEM’s neck for the lead-up to the election season—rather than trying to resolve the issue/s.
Those were his and the House’s actions – not mine, in case you didn’t notice…and such moronic mistakes are coming back to haunt him.
Will probably be a Debate question, and Harris will probably murder him w/ it.
Lady FOAF – still fantasizing over humble me?
@Karmi: The best way to handle commenters who try to bait you is to scroll past when you see them. You have to put in the effort to read what they wrote in order to get annoyed by it. Surely not reading it in the first place is less effort than reading it, getting fired up, and then responding? Seems silly to put in that kind of effort to amuse a stranger trying to wind you up?
Sometimes people try to bait you into saying something that gets you banned or scolded, you know, you don’t have to help them. Nobody online can make you irritated if you don’t help them by paying attention to them.
There are people who have left this place over stuff like this, why be one of them? If you think you can add value and benefit from being here, why not stay and don’t get drawn into nonsense?
And neo’s not our mom or the comment police, after all.
Karmi:
I already explained what I think om is trying to say to you, and why.
And the vast majority of commenters here are male, as far as I know, so responding mostly to male commenters has no special significance.
“Om” isn’t especially polite. Sometimes I criticize him (I assume “him”) when he steps over the line. Here he skirts the line but did not step over it.
Your rejoinder, on the other hand, was juvenile.
I don’t especially like refereeing comments, but if I don’t do some refereeing, it gets completely out of hand rather quickly.
Niketas Choniates & neo – points taken. Niketas Choniates, as usual, you point/s is/were terrible. Jeez… 😉
“Lady FOAF”
I am so devastated, I don’t think I can bear the humiliation! I may kill myself with a vegematic.
Sorry, Lady FOAF, but I keep trying to tell you that I am a very happy humble hermit, and not interested in a relationship…
Karmi, Neo’s blog is a breath of fresh air in the putrid gutter-sniping that masquerades as “comments”.
I think she is doing us all a favor by calling you out for your obvious attempt to insult om in a way that gets under his skin.
You may know more about “gay stalkers” than the rest of us, given your life experience, but I don’t think anyone that reads or comments on this blog want to go down that path.
I looked up the definition of a troll, and based on accepted definitions, you haven’t exhibited characteristics that would meet the definition of a troll.
Police Officer to his Pardner: ‘No wonder she was raped – did you see the outfit she was wearing?
Its a challenge to write more fictional twists than reality even from the perspective of 2012
They had the power to fix what fhey broke through 90 executive orders and they didnt do so.
If they had continued the pipelines ck
ontinued the sanctions putin the doha dynasts et al would not have the resources to engage in the kiev invasion and the al aqsa flood i hate that euphemism
We have seen the dragons teeth that have been sowed by this regime because the security services are either inept or complicit
My point was Trump, House Republicans plot to kill border deal – it didn’t matter how good or bad a border/immigration bill was or even how bipartisan or anything else. Trump and the GOP House wanted to hang the border/immigration issue/s around Biden’s & DEM’s neck for the lead-up to the election season—rather than trying to resolve the issue/s.
Those were his and the House’s actions – not mine, in case you didn’t notice…and such moronic mistakes are coming back to haunt him.
Will probably be a Debate question, and Harris will probably murder him w/ it. – Karmi
Karmi, you’re sounding more like a leftist all the time. “it didn’t matter how good or bad a border/immigration bill was”? Yes it does matter.
Add the fact you can’t recognize that the House bill was offered in good faith. Yes it had no hope of passing the Senate, but all it did was put into law the policies of the Trump administration that had curtailed much of the illegal border crossings.
LIV’s like yourself, can’t distinguish between a bill that controls illegal immigration and one that just turns illegal crossings into legal ones might be subject to the type of narrative/propaganda the left regularly uses. This is one of the great concerns for the future of the country, where journalism has died and narrative has replaced it.
Don’t stop commenting here, but this does crystalize how your comments should be viewed.
@Karmi: You’re clearly a computer literate guy. Find or write a script to block commenters if you need help not rising to bait (if I need to be on that list I ain’t mad at ya). There’s stuff you know that other people don’t, and they’ll learn from you if you don’t give them too many excuses to tune out when they see your handle.
There are always some people who take joy in driving people away or turning others against them, don’t give them another scalp.
“Gabe Evans in Colorado’s 8th District, challenging Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)”
Sorry to say that I am in Caraveo’s district. There is not way in Hades that she will lose, no matter how much money Evan collects.
Hard to believe that so many REP voters (and their Trump/Vance ticket) don’t want an ally like Ukraine…
Karmi acts offended when he goes a trolling in an obvious way and folks notice. He isn’t trolling all the time IMO, but he doesn’t like getting caught when he is. Hard being a humble hermit,or a green Kermit?
My wife and I celebrated our 68th anniversary this week. I want to take a moment to mention why I feel so blessed.
For the first 37 years I was gone a lot. She wase the perfect Navy/airline wife. She kept things together and solved problems in my absence. She was independent, smart, and brave. I’m lucky I met her all those years ago.
And the 31 years since retirement have seen us build two houses, move five times, and visit over 55 countries. Retirement has been full of doing things we both enjoy and staying active. What a time we have had together. She has been my partner, my best friend and a wonderful wife. Who could ask for more?
Another All In Podcast, this time giving more insight into the precarious position the economy is facing, what are some of the causes and potential catastrophic consequences.
It’s likely the fed is going to bow to the pressure of investors to lower interest rates as much as 1% in September to stave off a recession.
But as has previously been noted, we are most likely in what would be a recession if not for the massive stimulus of $2-3 trillion deficit spending for the last several years– which has fueled high inflation and the lingering still too high inflation.
The fed’s mandate is full employment and stable prices– not propping up the leveraged greed on display in Wall St.
We may find out if there is a peak debt load that the world’s economies cannot sustain.
Congratulations, J.J. What a testament to you and your wife’s commitment.
J.J. – Ditto on what Brian E said. 68 years is truly amazing…
J.J. – Beautiful, thanks for sharing!
Brian E on August 10, 2024 at 1:58 pm:
You really don’t get it – we just speak different versions of the English language.
I merely gave a “Jan 29, 2024 Memory Refresher” from what Trump and the House had done. It was Trump’s mistake back then to go on record like that—not my mistake.
He has made many more—apparently forgetting or ignoring them. Not good heading into a Sept 10 debate.
Harris is prepping – already prepping as if on a criminal murder case about to be tried. Watch her speeches from now on—they may reflect the questions that will be in that debate.
J.J., what a blessing you have been to each other, to your family, and to all those around you! May God grant you happiness and (reasonable) health until the end.
Karmi, it is you who doesn’t get it. The Democrat immigration bill, which Congressional Republicans killed, did not solve any problems and would merely have codified the Biden illegal work-arounds failing to enforcing the laws. Refusing this bill was not a mistake. Republicans need to point out that it was a con job, not a real effort to solve the problem.
Wonderful jj
J.J.:
Congratulations to you and your wife!
Kate – it was Trump’s words, *MOTIVE*, and actions that will be used against him. He’s on record wanting to *POLITICALLY* stick Biden & DEMs w/ border/immigration issues…that is the key here.
Politics in the service of truth are okay with me.
Lebanese Media is reporting that Arab Nations, including Qatar, have sent Messages to Hezbollah and Iran requesting that they “Delay and/or Cancel” any kind of Retaliatory Strike against Israel until at least after the August 15th Ceasefire and Hostage Negotiations.
Recall neo’s post in a “Roundup” concerning speculation that attacks may come on Tisha B’Av (Aug. 12-13)?
Said retaliatory attacks haven’t come yet anyhow, so perhaps there is some weight to these speculations.
But what’s this *wait until after the ceasefire negotiations resume* stuff all about? Why is that a critical moment?
I believe these Arab nations are on board with the Obama-Biden scheme — and possibly pressured directly — to handcuff Israel with defeat and saddle Israel with the preservation of Hamas. Were Iranian/Hezbollah retaliatory strikes to intervene prior to resumption of talks toward ceasefire (talks leading to Israel’s capitulation), Israel will have been thrust into dealing with its immediate self-defense and a potential all-out war with Hezbollah and or Iran, providing every incentive to the Israeli cabinet to call off any negotiations while under duress, thus pulling the rug from under Obama-Biden’s schemes.
Indeed, so threatening is any Israeli recalcitrance to a schemed up ceasefire, the White House spent this Sabbath (taking advantage as it always does these last few months when observant piety withholds any immediate response) denouncing and excoriating a key Israeli politican with vile demagoguery [Kirby: “…would, in fact, sacrifice the lives of Israeli hostages, his own country, and American hostages as well…”].
So joy is now the operative word for the Harris/Walz campaign and the media is happy to parrot joy all over stories on the campaign.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen astroturf grow so fast.
I’m also reminded of Hubert Humphrey’s “politics of joy” in 1968, a decidedly unjoyful year — two assassinations, riots all over the country including at the Democrat Convention. HHH’s joy didn’t do him or the country much good. He lost to Nixon.
I didn’t know that 2024 rhymes with 1968.
thats poison ivy, you keep falling for the low hanging fruit, karmi, we can’t help you there,
Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is picking up a “lot of the Obama coalition and Biden coalition” votes that were winners in 2008, 2012, and 2020 ..
“She’s on a honeymoon and being treated as if she’s on a honeymoon,” Zogby said on Newsmax’s “Saturday Agenda,” adding that she’s picking up “a lot of the anti-Trump vote.”
Harris is also polling higher among Black voters, but not where she needs to be to win in November .. “She’s in the mid- to high 70s among Blacks, not where she needs to be, but a whole lot better than Biden.”
Harris’ numbers are also higher among Latino voters .. one poll where she was polling at about 58% compared to President Joe Biden’s numbers in the low-to-mid 40s.
“I think the biggest deal, however, is bringing some progressives back home and notably younger ones,” said Zogby. “A couple of the polls have had her at about 60% among 18- to 29-year-olds, almost where she should be.”
Harris will get another honeymoon period later this month during the Democratic National Convention.
But heading into Labor Day, the race will tighten, and will be “very competitive,” said Zogby.
Karmi, unlike the Dems, Iran won’t find any state secrets among the e-mails.
Humphrey was a joyful warrior, although 1968 was not a joyful year. Harris is not joyful; she’s a nasty piece of work.
Karmi breathlessly reveals— “But heading into Labor Day, the race will tighten, and will be “very competitive,” said Zogby.”
Zogby became a Democrat pollster a few years ago, so I always take his reports with a grain of salt.
J. J.:
Absolutely wonderful. Congratulations!!!
Apparently karmi didn’t actually take the point
J.J.:
You’re a lucky man and you know it, i.e. also wise.
I knew there was a reason I read you. 🙂
I’m very glad for you, JJ!
Today would have been Herbert Hoover’s 150th birthday.
Many thanks to all for the kind thoughts.
Also, thanks to Brian E. for the video link at 3:38 pm.
The Yen carry trade. Who knew it was in the trillion$? Sounds like easy money – until the Bank of Japan raises interest rates with little warning. Except that they now realize they can’t do that without triggering a deluge in the U.S. and other markets. The BoJ is in the “coffin corner.” They can’t raise rates; they can’t stop inflation. Uncharted waters.
And with U.S. debt increasing at $2 trillion every 100 days, how long before the Fed finds itself in uncharted waters as well? Can AI solve this problem? IMO, AI is part of the problem. Stock trading algorithms accentuate upturns as well as nose dives in the market. And borrowing Yen at zero interest to buy stocks is a highwire act.
Anybody got any ideas about how to negotiate these markets with this scenario?
Congratulations J.J. to you and your wife on your beautiful life together.
Open Thread Sunday: Again, congratulations and blessings to J.J. and Mrs, J.J. but here we are –
Air Defence In Ukraine (2024): Creativity, Anti-air drones, Shortages & Lessons – Perun
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:11 — What Am I Talking About?
00:02:14 — Air Defences & The War Of Attrition
00:03:51 — Losses & Replacements
00:10:28 — Assessing Strain
00:12:53 — Ukrainian Usage
00:28:54 — Russia
00:50:54 — Converting Intelligence To Kills
00:59:17 — Conclusions
01:00:56 — Channel Update
Ukraine showed this week that in spite of Vlad’s plans, they have a say in how things play out; see Kursk.
Congratulations J.J.
So many people don’t even make it to 68 years old let alone 68 years of marriage. My parents were married in ‘55 but my father died in 2019.
If you are so inclined to share, how did you two meet and what was your first date like? Were you already in the Navy?
SHIREHOME
“Sorry to say that I am in Caraveo’s district. There is not way in Hades that she will lose, no matter how much money Evan collects.”
According to Ballotpedia
“Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee are targeting the district. In the 2022 election, Caraveo defeated Barbara Kirkmeyer (R) 48.4%–47.7%. The 8th district was the fifth-narrowest U.S. House election nationwide in 2022 and the narrowest in which a Democrat won. “
Why the negativity?
that seems like a very narrow lead, to gauge, btw they haven’t polled in seven days,
“Pro-Palestinian protesters vow massive showing at Democratic convention
Activists say the replacement of President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris does not affect their plans for a show of anger and dissent.
….
That experience, along with 10 months of anger at the Biden administration’s handling of the war, has left AbdulQader and many other Little Palestine residents determined to protest in large numbers outside the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19-22. Organizers say tens of thousands will show up, creating scenes of fury and dissent at a moment when Democrats will be working to project unity.”
Edit. And from the universities
Virginia Secretary of Education Warns Universities To Prepare For Anti-Israel Protests Amid Reports Campus Disruptions ‘Will Be Even More Chaotic’
The BoJ is in the “coffin corner.” They can’t raise rates; they can’t stop inflation. Uncharted waters.
==
The inflation rate in Japan is 2.8% per annum and it’s lower than it was last year.
== And with U.S. debt increasing at $2 trillion every 100 days
==
It has increased by $2.5 tn in the last 12 months.
I know, Trump and MAGA supporters ‘don’t need no stinking Pence or his voters!’
==
He doesn’t have any voters. Neither does Richard Cheney.
for every deadpool, they lay an egg with borderlands,
Karmi, this is just for you.
From the article you linked to:
“University of Michigan professor Erik Gordon said of the results: ‘The fact that voters were more positive on Harris than on Biden . . . says as much about how badly Biden was doing as it does about how well Harris is doing.'”
It’s says nothing about Harris. It’s just projection. The fact this poll is by the Financial Times/U of Mich. should raise red flags, even for you.
So here’s the dilemma Trump-Vance and conservatives face. The MSM will be doing everything in their power to create an Iron Curtain between voters and what Kamala-Walz policies will be. Trump-Vance have to break through that Wall.
If they penetrate that wall, Trump-Vance win the policy/economy portion of the election. That’s true for all the issues, of course.
I think the consensus among conservatives is the issues affecting voters is economy-border-culture-national security.
Art Deco,
2023 inflation in Japan was 3.3%. It’s down, but trending back up in 2024. BoJ’s target rate, like the Fed is 2%.
The $2t every 100 days was a headline in the video of a blog post by Michelle Fox of MSNBC.
I think the point the guys in the All In Podcast is the fragility/interconnectedness of economies. They were looking at a 15 basis point increase and couple that with the Fed possibly lowering rates 25-50 basis points in September was enough to create instability.
Thanks for the factoid’s in answer to Art D’s questions, Brian E. The video has now been taken down for some sort of violation of U-Tube rules. Can’t refer back to it for what was said.
I suspected that the pundits on the video were being a bit hyperbolic. In contrast, I’ve read a couple of financial sites that claim the Yen carry trade has been unwound and all is well. Nothing to see here, move along. 🙂
My guess is that the truth lies somewhere in between. However, we do know that the market is overpriced (Warren Buffet can’t find much worth buying in this market.) And IMO, if the Fed reduces rates before the economy goes into recession, it will probably result in more stagflation. We also know that, as the U.S. debt increases, high interest rates make debt servicing more difficult. So here we are. 🙂
“If you are so inclined to share, how did you two meet and what was your first date like? Were you already in the Navy?” – Chases Eagles
I was in advanced flight training at NAS Cabiness field, Corpus Christi, Texas. Mrs. J.J. was a schoolteacher at West Oso High School. We met at an after church social for young adults. Our first date was an outing to Padre Island beach. We had a wonderful day, and I knew we had a strong attraction.
It would be thirty days before my training ended and I would be assigned to a fleet squadron. During those thirty days we spent as much time together as possible. A week before my training ended, I asked her to marry me. She accepted, and our journey together began.
J.J.,
I’ve read it’s about 50-60% unwound. Which points to one of a dozen unintended consequence of advocacy journalism. It’s very difficult to get data that is divorced of POV bias. Since much/most financial data comes from the bureaucracy, there is a political bias baked in. Hence, “the revisions downward” technique that has become a staple of government reporting data.
I think in whole these are very smart entrepreneurs that aren’t economists, but certainly understand the workings. Remember Chamath said there was nothing to be learned from the Japan situation because conditions are different here. If Sacks or Friedberg overstated the potential here, Chamath likely understated it.
By far the biggest risk facing the country/world is debt. And I don’t mean just the national debt.
Credit card debt, highest ever. Stock market leverage, highest ever (at least in the last few decades). Leveraged loans (high risk loans), highest ever.
Is there a limit to the amount of debt being carried that causes another ’08 financial crisis? It seems we’re reducing any safety factor that would allow an unseen, possibly even minor event, produce a catastrophic event?
Credit Default Swaps, Mortgage Backed Securities– things that were created to absorb more debt, or manage the effects, were misused– even though supposedly regulated. Why is the risk any better now?
In my opinion the best way to navigate the stock market is by watching from the sidelines– but then I’m risk averse.
I don’t think they let bears even go on financial networks anymore– so the level of hype is off the charts, IMO. Google “is the stock market overvalued”.
@ J. J. > “Warren Buffet can’t find much worth buying in this market.”
Nice complex you got there, Frannie – chock-full of treasure, torture relics, and forced confession docs. Lovely.
I think thats unpossible there are too many eloi there
I dont regard him as the real pontiff
Benedict was forced out imho
T hanks for the comment, Brian E.
I’m with you about the debt issue. At some point it has to be resolved. The MBSs and credit swaps snuck up on the markets. I guess we will have to go through another credit crisis like 2007/8 at some point. Just a different house of cards that will bring it down.
Aesopfan, you’re right. We can’t take it with us. On free speech – who knew social media would put free speech in danger? It’s such a convenient way to stay in touch with family and friends. Who would have guessed what a cesspool of crime, censorship, misinformation, and hate it could foster. And yet, I’m informed that many people get all their news there. Go figure. 🙂
but trending back up in 2024
==
It isn’t.
== However, we do know that the market is overpriced
==
The median trailing p/e ratio for the period running from 1973 to the present is 18.6, The S & P 500 has been running higher for 10 years, currently about 50% higher. (The ratio is not unprecedently high, however; there have been 73 months in the last 50 years when it was higher).
== Credit card debt, highest ever
==
The Federal Reserve publishes data on financial obligation ratios, debt service ratios, mortgage debt service ratios, and consumer debt service ratios. They have issued data on 175 quarters since the end of 1979. The first three ratios are not the lowest recorded in that time, but they’re around the 5th percentile. The consumer debt service ratio is contextually higher, but it’s not the highest ever recorded. It’s around the 60th percentile.
==
Our problem is excessive federal borrowing. And our political class is dominated by people who do not give a rip.
I think the point the guys in the All In Podcast is the fragility/interconnectedness of economies.
==
If you’re peddling panic porn, that’s a helpful notion.
Stock market leverage, highest ever
==
The ratio of margin debt to total market valuation in the U.S. was 0.0153 in May of this year. It was nearly twice that in 2009 and has been declining since then.
== https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/margin-debt.php
Art Deco,
Japan inflation rate 2024
2024 Jan- 2.1% Feb-2.8% March-2.7% April-2.5% May-2.9% June- 2.9%
2023 average was 3.3% for the year.
Stock market is overvalued
You used median trailing P/E 18.3. Trailing P/E in Feb. 2024- 24.01.
Credit Card debt is $1.1 trillion. You can argue I should use an inflation adjusted number. I don’t have one.
As to me “peddling panic porn”, it was J.J. that brought up the Japan carry trade, which was just one of many the guys discussed. I was interested in the recession discussion. I think they agree we were in a low level recession. The market is so fragile (overvalued?), bulls are trying to bully the fed to lower rates since the (overvalued?) will have a correction (maybe even a significant correction) it the economy slows.
Propping up the stock market isn’t one of the feds mandates.
stock market leverage
I was looking at the total dollar amount in margin accounts which is highest ever, not as percentage of total market valuation. Probably should have used an inflation adjusted number if I had one.
For example, in July 2024 margin accounts were $810 billion vs. $343 billion in July 2008.
I think the media focuses on the market to the detriment of the economy.
The longtime GOP pollster blames Trump ‘single-handedly’ for the slide
‘The campaign is disciplined; their candidate is not.’
Luntz says that Trump can regain the momentum by focusing on two key issues: the border crisis, which Harris disastrously presided over, and the flailing economy.
I think most anyone paying attention (besides Trump faithful) could tell Trump was way off his previous self since Harris became DEMs candidate. Didn’t take any polls to see that. Overly defensive faithful are also missing that fact, from what I see here.
Example: yesterday I linked to “Shock poll” – thinking to myself that the headline had to be a joke, since one could see that it was going to say Harris was ahead of Trump on the economy…Jeez, it was obvious, but I got a long ‘Lecture’ on it.
Only following politics since 2001, but had heard the old saying—long before my venture into politics that went something like this:
DEMs in charge = Bad Economy. REPs in charge = Good Economy.
Anyway, in the article just linked to (a must read, IMHO, with an open mind…)–it points out this:
The former president last night risked sparking further concern by falsely claiming that his Democratic opponent had doctored an image of the crowd at her rally last week in Detroit.
I saw that ARTICLE – which included a video showing a large crowd. He’s is literally more focused on crowd size than the border & economy issues…?!?!?!
well if you want your brain to fall out, yes thats an open mind,
Luntz was a protege of Richard Wirthlin right out of Oxford, then worked for Perot, and for a brief interval with Gingrich, then became thoroughly irrelevant by 2009, when the Obama infestation came to pass, when Betsy McCaughey and Michelle Bachman conveyed the evil of ‘death panels’ in the Stimulus bill
what can be said of Kamala, she has a low cunning, no evidence of any intelligence, a small talent for lies, a larger talent, (I don’t have to spell it out do I)
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A Twofer – but hard to find ‘Fair and Balanced’ ones when Trump’s own words come back to haunt him:
PENCE LEAVES MAGA
I know, Trump and MAGA supporters ‘don’t need no stinking Pence or his voters!’ Is the Republican party starting to ‘Bleed’ voters? I didn’t like Pence from the beginning, still don’t, but figured Trump knew what he was doing.
…………
Trump and his MAGA supporters ‘ThOuGhT’ (are they actually capable of such?!?) it would be a great idea to to kill the border bill six+ months ago in order to blame Biden for the immigration issues during the lead-up to November election.
Jan 29, 2024 Memory Refresher – Trump, House Republicans plot to kill border deal
Harris Flips Script on IMMIGRATION – Harris promises to go tough on border security
Jeez…she is literally cramming Trump’s own words down his throat…
Look, all I’m saying is we haven’t seen Colin Kaepernick in a while
The Florida troll, quoting the Joyous Cackler now.
Are immigration controls one of those “man made laws” he trolls about?
Who knows (or really cares)?
om the ‘Gay Commenter‘ can’t resist flirting with male commenters…Jeez, time to come outta the closet dudess…
Karmi:
What is this, junior high? “Gay Commenter”? “Dudess”?
I think that “om” is trying to point out the fact that lately you appear to have sometimes taken on the role of someone who enjoys spreading doom.
Harris’s promise to get tough on immigration is not credible, given the Biden/Harris administration record, nor was the bill Democrats pushed an actual immigration control bill.
Harris is going to get tough on the border, which she was never in charge of and was never in crisis except when it was Trump’s fault.
Harris is going to tame inflation, which was solved a long time ago and was Trump’s fault.
Harris is going to hide in the basement until November, while the press invents nothing but good things to say about her and nothing but bad things to say about Trump.
It may be that the media has already blown its credibility with enough people that this doesn’t work; they do have election shenanigans to fall back on regardless of what voters think or don’t.
The point is, there’s a lot of headwind. Republican voters got really excited over the last month and forgot about these headwinds, but they’ve always been there (and a few of us have consistently said so).
The election is at best a tossup. This is not new.
It would be the better part of wisdom, to have a plan for weathering decades of one-party rule supported by openly partisan media and lawfare. If the election goes our way, then have a plan for weathering the violence and lawfare that will be unleashed in retaliation. Getting caught up in the horse race drama and the narratives that the media sells between now and then is not only a distraction but it is what the media counts on from those who follow it.
I skip over Karmi’s posts.
That video title about Chopin losing his magic, fortunately, turned out to be total nonsense. I’ve never learned about the functions of the pedals on the piano. But it seems they’re rather important after all.
“This is one reason why Chopin could do things that you can’t.”
The ignorance and indifference of people to their fate that is a problem.
Remember what we said about getting older im probably the youngest in this crew but i already feel like methuselah
So oeggy noonan maggie haberman anyone buying a bridge from them yo no (im not)
Im a little older than my grandfather was when the wandering coma descended on cuba courtesy of foggy bottom the times and the company
Did you get your book site back up irish
Miguel, you are wise beyond your years.
Miguel is wise, but hides his light under a bushel of cryptic terseness. I only point this out because I think if he made his commentary more accessible, a lot of people would benefit.
On the other hand, cryptic terseness is a skill we all may have to learn soon if we want to participate online without risk of losing our jobs, bank accounts, and access to credit. The algorithms are tuned to keywords, and the people acting on what the algorithms dig up are increasingly unable to read anything for themselves.
For those like me who give political donations, here are some close House races targeted by the Republicans
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom in Alaska’s at-large district, challenging Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D)
Caroleene Dobson in Alabama’s 2nd District, which Rep. Barry Moore (R) is vacating to run in a different district
Kevin Lincoln in California’s 9th District, challenging Rep. Josh Harder (D)
Scott Baugh in California’s 47th District, which Rep. Katie Porter (D) is vacating since she ran for Senate
Matt Gunderson in California’s 49th District, challenging Rep. Mike Levin (D)
Jeff Hurd in Colorado’s 3rd District, which Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) is vacating as she runs in a different district
Gabe Evans in Colorado’s 8th District, challenging Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)
George Logan in Connecticut’s 5th District, challenging Rep. Jahana Hayes (D)
Joe McGraw in Illinois’s 17th District, challenging Rep. Eric Sorensen (D)
Randy Niemeyer in Indiana’s 1st District, challenging Rep. Frank J. Mrvan (D)
Prasanth Reddy in Kansas’s 3rd District, challenging Rep. Sharice Davids (D)
Austin Theriault in Maine’s 2nd District, challenging Rep. Jared Golden (D)
Tom Barrett in Michigan’s 7th District, which Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) is vacating as she runs for Senate
Joe Teirab in Minnesota’s 2nd District, challenging Rep. Angie Craig (D)
Laurie Buckhout in North Carolina’s 1st District, challenging Rep. Don Davis (D)
Yvette Herrell in New Mexico’s 2nd District, challenging Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) for the seat she previously held
John Lee in Nevada’s 4th District, challenging Rep. Steven Horsford (D)
Alison Esposito in New York’s 18th District, challenging Rep. Pat Ryan (D)
Derek Merrin in Ohio’s 9th District, challenging Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D)
Kevin Coughlin in Ohio’s 13th District, challenging Rep. Emilia Sykes (D)
Monique DeSpain in Oregon’s 4th District, challenging Rep. Val Hoyle (D)
Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania’s 7th District, challenging Rep. Susan Wild (D)
Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, challenging Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
Rob Mercuri in Pennsylvania’s 17th District, challenging Rep. Chris Deluzio (D)
Mayra Flores in Texas’s 34th District, challenging Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D) for a seat she previously held after winning a special election in 2022
Derrick Anderson in Virginia’s 7th District, which Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is vacating
Dark humor
https://babylonbee.com/news/russia-sends-troops-to-liberate-oppressed-british-people-from-communist-rule?utm_source=The%20Babylon%20Bee%20Newsletter&utm_medium=email
I dare an ai to try to copy me, it would go norman the android fully
They say fiction has to make sense internally lord knows realitly doesnt
Of mike pence i have said my piece not to take sides is a choice in itself
Karmi, tell me the advantages of the “bipartisan” immigration bill over the House HR2 border control bill. Which did you support?
Miguel is wise, but hides his light under a bushel of cryptic terseness.
I thoroughly enjoy Miguel’s writing style, his so-called cryptic terseness. To me, it shines very brightly.
Don’t ever change, Miguel!
P.S. I’ll answer your question about my website after make some inquiries with neo.
I have little tolerance for such rank idiocy and equivocation
She enabled this invasion of 10-15 million people a camp of the saints from every cornsr of the earth and then pretends otherwise
She makes neccessities luxuries and luxuries unaffordable then jive talks about lowering prices
Assume what she has advanced come to pass even a small portion it will become nasty brutish and short for many
“What is this, junior high?
No, it’s the prison shower.
neo:
So “Florida troll” is OK? Anyway, om has been following me around the board since my first day here – sniping & snipping and name calling. He followed other male blog commenters before me. Follows other new male members besides me. He acts gay – like a gay stalker in the men’s bathroom…
Brian E:
My point was Trump, House Republicans plot to kill border deal – it didn’t matter how good or bad a border/immigration bill was or even how bipartisan or anything else. Trump and the GOP House wanted to hang the border/immigration issue/s around Biden’s & DEM’s neck for the lead-up to the election season—rather than trying to resolve the issue/s.
Those were his and the House’s actions – not mine, in case you didn’t notice…and such moronic mistakes are coming back to haunt him.
Will probably be a Debate question, and Harris will probably murder him w/ it.
Lady FOAF – still fantasizing over humble me?
@Karmi: The best way to handle commenters who try to bait you is to scroll past when you see them. You have to put in the effort to read what they wrote in order to get annoyed by it. Surely not reading it in the first place is less effort than reading it, getting fired up, and then responding? Seems silly to put in that kind of effort to amuse a stranger trying to wind you up?
Sometimes people try to bait you into saying something that gets you banned or scolded, you know, you don’t have to help them. Nobody online can make you irritated if you don’t help them by paying attention to them.
There are people who have left this place over stuff like this, why be one of them? If you think you can add value and benefit from being here, why not stay and don’t get drawn into nonsense?
And neo’s not our mom or the comment police, after all.
Karmi:
I already explained what I think om is trying to say to you, and why.
And the vast majority of commenters here are male, as far as I know, so responding mostly to male commenters has no special significance.
“Om” isn’t especially polite. Sometimes I criticize him (I assume “him”) when he steps over the line. Here he skirts the line but did not step over it.
Your rejoinder, on the other hand, was juvenile.
I don’t especially like refereeing comments, but if I don’t do some refereeing, it gets completely out of hand rather quickly.
Niketas Choniates & neo – points taken. Niketas Choniates, as usual, you point/s is/were terrible. Jeez… 😉
“Lady FOAF”
I am so devastated, I don’t think I can bear the humiliation! I may kill myself with a vegematic.
Sorry, Lady FOAF, but I keep trying to tell you that I am a very happy humble hermit, and not interested in a relationship…
Karmi, Neo’s blog is a breath of fresh air in the putrid gutter-sniping that masquerades as “comments”.
I think she is doing us all a favor by calling you out for your obvious attempt to insult om in a way that gets under his skin.
You may know more about “gay stalkers” than the rest of us, given your life experience, but I don’t think anyone that reads or comments on this blog want to go down that path.
I looked up the definition of a troll, and based on accepted definitions, you haven’t exhibited characteristics that would meet the definition of a troll.
Police Officer to his Pardner: ‘No wonder she was raped – did you see the outfit she was wearing?
Its a challenge to write more fictional twists than reality even from the perspective of 2012
They had the power to fix what fhey broke through 90 executive orders and they didnt do so.
If they had continued the pipelines ck
ontinued the sanctions putin the doha dynasts et al would not have the resources to engage in the kiev invasion and the al aqsa flood i hate that euphemism
We have seen the dragons teeth that have been sowed by this regime because the security services are either inept or complicit
My point was Trump, House Republicans plot to kill border deal – it didn’t matter how good or bad a border/immigration bill was or even how bipartisan or anything else. Trump and the GOP House wanted to hang the border/immigration issue/s around Biden’s & DEM’s neck for the lead-up to the election season—rather than trying to resolve the issue/s.
Those were his and the House’s actions – not mine, in case you didn’t notice…and such moronic mistakes are coming back to haunt him.
Will probably be a Debate question, and Harris will probably murder him w/ it. – Karmi
Karmi, you’re sounding more like a leftist all the time. “it didn’t matter how good or bad a border/immigration bill was”? Yes it does matter.
Add the fact you can’t recognize that the House bill was offered in good faith. Yes it had no hope of passing the Senate, but all it did was put into law the policies of the Trump administration that had curtailed much of the illegal border crossings.
LIV’s like yourself, can’t distinguish between a bill that controls illegal immigration and one that just turns illegal crossings into legal ones might be subject to the type of narrative/propaganda the left regularly uses. This is one of the great concerns for the future of the country, where journalism has died and narrative has replaced it.
Don’t stop commenting here, but this does crystalize how your comments should be viewed.
@Karmi: You’re clearly a computer literate guy. Find or write a script to block commenters if you need help not rising to bait (if I need to be on that list I ain’t mad at ya). There’s stuff you know that other people don’t, and they’ll learn from you if you don’t give them too many excuses to tune out when they see your handle.
There are always some people who take joy in driving people away or turning others against them, don’t give them another scalp.
“Gabe Evans in Colorado’s 8th District, challenging Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)”
Sorry to say that I am in Caraveo’s district. There is not way in Hades that she will lose, no matter how much money Evan collects.
Why her sparkling personality
Putin orders more than 76,000 to evacuate as Ukraine launches surprise cross-border offensive into Russia
Hard to believe that so many REP voters (and their Trump/Vance ticket) don’t want an ally like Ukraine…
Karmi acts offended when he goes a trolling in an obvious way and folks notice. He isn’t trolling all the time IMO, but he doesn’t like getting caught when he is. Hard being a humble hermit,or a green Kermit?
My wife and I celebrated our 68th anniversary this week. I want to take a moment to mention why I feel so blessed.
For the first 37 years I was gone a lot. She wase the perfect Navy/airline wife. She kept things together and solved problems in my absence. She was independent, smart, and brave. I’m lucky I met her all those years ago.
And the 31 years since retirement have seen us build two houses, move five times, and visit over 55 countries. Retirement has been full of doing things we both enjoy and staying active. What a time we have had together. She has been my partner, my best friend and a wonderful wife. Who could ask for more?
Another All In Podcast, this time giving more insight into the precarious position the economy is facing, what are some of the causes and potential catastrophic consequences.
It’s likely the fed is going to bow to the pressure of investors to lower interest rates as much as 1% in September to stave off a recession.
But as has previously been noted, we are most likely in what would be a recession if not for the massive stimulus of $2-3 trillion deficit spending for the last several years– which has fueled high inflation and the lingering still too high inflation.
The fed’s mandate is full employment and stable prices– not propping up the leveraged greed on display in Wall St.
We may find out if there is a peak debt load that the world’s economies cannot sustain.
Yen Carry Trade, Recession odds grow, Buffett cash pile, Google ruled monopoly, Kamala picks Walz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRKDisV_pcI
Congratulations, J.J. What a testament to you and your wife’s commitment.
J.J. – Ditto on what Brian E said. 68 years is truly amazing…
J.J. – Beautiful, thanks for sharing!
Brian E on August 10, 2024 at 1:58 pm:
You really don’t get it – we just speak different versions of the English language.
I merely gave a “Jan 29, 2024 Memory Refresher” from what Trump and the House had done. It was Trump’s mistake back then to go on record like that—not my mistake.
He has made many more—apparently forgetting or ignoring them. Not good heading into a Sept 10 debate.
Harris is prepping – already prepping as if on a criminal murder case about to be tried. Watch her speeches from now on—they may reflect the questions that will be in that debate.
She used his words and actions—like a prosecutor…
Comedy gold that never gets old!
Trump Plays Viral Gaffe Supercut Of Kamala Harris On The Jumbotron At Montana Campaign Rally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxI0180LHxc
J.J., what a blessing you have been to each other, to your family, and to all those around you! May God grant you happiness and (reasonable) health until the end.
Karmi, it is you who doesn’t get it. The Democrat immigration bill, which Congressional Republicans killed, did not solve any problems and would merely have codified the Biden illegal work-arounds failing to enforcing the laws. Refusing this bill was not a mistake. Republicans need to point out that it was a con job, not a real effort to solve the problem.
Wonderful jj
J.J.:
Congratulations to you and your wife!
Kate – it was Trump’s words, *MOTIVE*, and actions that will be used against him. He’s on record wanting to *POLITICALLY* stick Biden & DEMs w/ border/immigration issues…that is the key here.
Politics in the service of truth are okay with me.
OSINTDefender on X
Recall neo’s post in a “Roundup” concerning speculation that attacks may come on Tisha B’Av (Aug. 12-13)?
Said retaliatory attacks haven’t come yet anyhow, so perhaps there is some weight to these speculations.
But what’s this *wait until after the ceasefire negotiations resume* stuff all about? Why is that a critical moment?
I believe these Arab nations are on board with the Obama-Biden scheme — and possibly pressured directly — to handcuff Israel with defeat and saddle Israel with the preservation of Hamas. Were Iranian/Hezbollah retaliatory strikes to intervene prior to resumption of talks toward ceasefire (talks leading to Israel’s capitulation), Israel will have been thrust into dealing with its immediate self-defense and a potential all-out war with Hezbollah and or Iran, providing every incentive to the Israeli cabinet to call off any negotiations while under duress, thus pulling the rug from under Obama-Biden’s schemes.
Indeed, so threatening is any Israeli recalcitrance to a schemed up ceasefire, the White House spent this Sabbath (taking advantage as it always does these last few months when observant piety withholds any immediate response) denouncing and excoriating a key Israeli politican with vile demagoguery [Kirby: “…would, in fact, sacrifice the lives of Israeli hostages, his own country, and American hostages as well…”].
Trump campaign is ‘HACKED’ – amid claims secret documents about JD Vance’s ‘vulnerabilities’ and court cases have been leaked
Re: More 1968
So joy is now the operative word for the Harris/Walz campaign and the media is happy to parrot joy all over stories on the campaign.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen astroturf grow so fast.
I’m also reminded of Hubert Humphrey’s “politics of joy” in 1968, a decidedly unjoyful year — two assassinations, riots all over the country including at the Democrat Convention. HHH’s joy didn’t do him or the country much good. He lost to Nixon.
I didn’t know that 2024 rhymes with 1968.
thats poison ivy, you keep falling for the low hanging fruit, karmi, we can’t help you there,
I’ve always liked Zogby. Pollster Zogby to Newsmax: Harris ‘Picking Up Obama Coalition’ Votes – snippets:
Karmi, unlike the Dems, Iran won’t find any state secrets among the e-mails.
Humphrey was a joyful warrior, although 1968 was not a joyful year. Harris is not joyful; she’s a nasty piece of work.
Karmi breathlessly reveals— “But heading into Labor Day, the race will tighten, and will be “very competitive,” said Zogby.”
Zogby became a Democrat pollster a few years ago, so I always take his reports with a grain of salt.
J. J.:
Absolutely wonderful. Congratulations!!!
Apparently karmi didn’t actually take the point
J.J.:
You’re a lucky man and you know it, i.e. also wise.
I knew there was a reason I read you. 🙂
I’m very glad for you, JJ!
Today would have been Herbert Hoover’s 150th birthday.
Many thanks to all for the kind thoughts.
Also, thanks to Brian E. for the video link at 3:38 pm.
The Yen carry trade. Who knew it was in the trillion$? Sounds like easy money – until the Bank of Japan raises interest rates with little warning. Except that they now realize they can’t do that without triggering a deluge in the U.S. and other markets. The BoJ is in the “coffin corner.” They can’t raise rates; they can’t stop inflation. Uncharted waters.
And with U.S. debt increasing at $2 trillion every 100 days, how long before the Fed finds itself in uncharted waters as well? Can AI solve this problem? IMO, AI is part of the problem. Stock trading algorithms accentuate upturns as well as nose dives in the market. And borrowing Yen at zero interest to buy stocks is a highwire act.
Anybody got any ideas about how to negotiate these markets with this scenario?
Congratulations J.J. to you and your wife on your beautiful life together.
Open Thread Sunday: Again, congratulations and blessings to J.J. and Mrs, J.J. but here we are –
Air Defence In Ukraine (2024): Creativity, Anti-air drones, Shortages & Lessons – Perun
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlljA8zAupY
Congratulations J.J.
So many people don’t even make it to 68 years old let alone 68 years of marriage. My parents were married in ‘55 but my father died in 2019.
If you are so inclined to share, how did you two meet and what was your first date like? Were you already in the Navy?
SHIREHOME
“Sorry to say that I am in Caraveo’s district. There is not way in Hades that she will lose, no matter how much money Evan collects.”
According to Ballotpedia
“Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee are targeting the district. In the 2022 election, Caraveo defeated Barbara Kirkmeyer (R) 48.4%–47.7%. The 8th district was the fifth-narrowest U.S. House election nationwide in 2022 and the narrowest in which a Democrat won. “
Why the negativity?
that seems like a very narrow lead, to gauge, btw they haven’t polled in seven days,
Don’t ‘Shoot the Messenger’:
Shock poll reveals who Americans think is more trustworthy on the economy between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
No quotes since it appears Brian E may have lost his breath yesterday over a link I quoted…?!?
woman can’t spell economy she’s like an eight track tape stuck in a 78 camaro,
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/08/11/ukraine-africa-tuareg-rebels-northern-mali-dmytro-kuleba/
Just maybe Brian E has a life and Kermit isn’t the center of the universe? 🙂
he seems nice
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hyympn8qa
Some good news from the WaPo
“Pro-Palestinian protesters vow massive showing at Democratic convention
Activists say the replacement of President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris does not affect their plans for a show of anger and dissent.
….
That experience, along with 10 months of anger at the Biden administration’s handling of the war, has left AbdulQader and many other Little Palestine residents determined to protest in large numbers outside the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 19-22. Organizers say tens of thousands will show up, creating scenes of fury and dissent at a moment when Democrats will be working to project unity.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/11/palestine-demonstration-protest-democratic-convention/
Edit. And from the universities
Virginia Secretary of Education Warns Universities To Prepare For Anti-Israel Protests Amid Reports Campus Disruptions ‘Will Be Even More Chaotic’
https://freebeacon.com/issues/virginia-secretary-of-education-warns-universities-to-prepare-for-anti-israel-protests-amid-reports-campus-disruptions-will-be-even-more-chaotic/
The BoJ is in the “coffin corner.” They can’t raise rates; they can’t stop inflation. Uncharted waters.
==
The inflation rate in Japan is 2.8% per annum and it’s lower than it was last year.
==
And with U.S. debt increasing at $2 trillion every 100 days
==
It has increased by $2.5 tn in the last 12 months.
I know, Trump and MAGA supporters ‘don’t need no stinking Pence or his voters!’
==
He doesn’t have any voters. Neither does Richard Cheney.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-says-it-wont-send-delegation-to-ceasefire-hostage-talks-thursday/
Obama-Biden foiled again! Damned Israelis.
has egypt really proven trustworthy
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-august-10-2024/?
for every deadpool, they lay an egg with borderlands,
Karmi, this is just for you.
From the article you linked to:
It’s says nothing about Harris. It’s just projection. The fact this poll is by the Financial Times/U of Mich. should raise red flags, even for you.
So here’s the dilemma Trump-Vance and conservatives face. The MSM will be doing everything in their power to create an Iron Curtain between voters and what Kamala-Walz policies will be. Trump-Vance have to break through that Wall.
If they penetrate that wall, Trump-Vance win the policy/economy portion of the election. That’s true for all the issues, of course.
I think the consensus among conservatives is the issues affecting voters is economy-border-culture-national security.
Art Deco,
2023 inflation in Japan was 3.3%. It’s down, but trending back up in 2024. BoJ’s target rate, like the Fed is 2%.
The $2t every 100 days was a headline in the video of a blog post by Michelle Fox of MSNBC.
I think the point the guys in the All In Podcast is the fragility/interconnectedness of economies. They were looking at a 15 basis point increase and couple that with the Fed possibly lowering rates 25-50 basis points in September was enough to create instability.
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/08/08/ray-mcgovern-decay-decrepitude-deceit-in-journalism/
not this carp again,
Thanks for the factoid’s in answer to Art D’s questions, Brian E. The video has now been taken down for some sort of violation of U-Tube rules. Can’t refer back to it for what was said.
I suspected that the pundits on the video were being a bit hyperbolic. In contrast, I’ve read a couple of financial sites that claim the Yen carry trade has been unwound and all is well. Nothing to see here, move along. 🙂
My guess is that the truth lies somewhere in between. However, we do know that the market is overpriced (Warren Buffet can’t find much worth buying in this market.) And IMO, if the Fed reduces rates before the economy goes into recession, it will probably result in more stagflation. We also know that, as the U.S. debt increases, high interest rates make debt servicing more difficult. So here we are. 🙂
“If you are so inclined to share, how did you two meet and what was your first date like? Were you already in the Navy?” – Chases Eagles
I was in advanced flight training at NAS Cabiness field, Corpus Christi, Texas. Mrs. J.J. was a schoolteacher at West Oso High School. We met at an after church social for young adults. Our first date was an outing to Padre Island beach. We had a wonderful day, and I knew we had a strong attraction.
It would be thirty days before my training ended and I would be assigned to a fleet squadron. During those thirty days we spent as much time together as possible. A week before my training ended, I asked her to marry me. She accepted, and our journey together began.
J.J.,
I’ve read it’s about 50-60% unwound. Which points to one of a dozen unintended consequence of advocacy journalism. It’s very difficult to get data that is divorced of POV bias. Since much/most financial data comes from the bureaucracy, there is a political bias baked in. Hence, “the revisions downward” technique that has become a staple of government reporting data.
I think in whole these are very smart entrepreneurs that aren’t economists, but certainly understand the workings. Remember Chamath said there was nothing to be learned from the Japan situation because conditions are different here. If Sacks or Friedberg overstated the potential here, Chamath likely understated it.
By far the biggest risk facing the country/world is debt. And I don’t mean just the national debt.
Credit card debt, highest ever. Stock market leverage, highest ever (at least in the last few decades). Leveraged loans (high risk loans), highest ever.
Is there a limit to the amount of debt being carried that causes another ’08 financial crisis? It seems we’re reducing any safety factor that would allow an unseen, possibly even minor event, produce a catastrophic event?
Credit Default Swaps, Mortgage Backed Securities– things that were created to absorb more debt, or manage the effects, were misused– even though supposedly regulated. Why is the risk any better now?
In my opinion the best way to navigate the stock market is by watching from the sidelines– but then I’m risk averse.
I don’t think they let bears even go on financial networks anymore– so the level of hype is off the charts, IMO. Google “is the stock market overvalued”.
@ J. J. > “Warren Buffet can’t find much worth buying in this market.”
Here’s a suggestion, although it’s for a different billionaire.
https://babylonbee.com/news/elon-musk-buys-the-united-kingdom-to-establish-free-speech-there
And congrats on your 68th anniversary!
That’s worth more than anything anyone could buy.
Pope Sourpuss again recalls U.S. Bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Nice complex you got there, Frannie – chock-full of treasure, torture relics, and forced confession docs. Lovely.
I think thats unpossible there are too many eloi there
I dont regard him as the real pontiff
Benedict was forced out imho
T hanks for the comment, Brian E.
I’m with you about the debt issue. At some point it has to be resolved. The MBSs and credit swaps snuck up on the markets. I guess we will have to go through another credit crisis like 2007/8 at some point. Just a different house of cards that will bring it down.
Aesopfan, you’re right. We can’t take it with us. On free speech – who knew social media would put free speech in danger? It’s such a convenient way to stay in touch with family and friends. Who would have guessed what a cesspool of crime, censorship, misinformation, and hate it could foster. And yet, I’m informed that many people get all their news there. Go figure. 🙂
but trending back up in 2024
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It isn’t.
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However, we do know that the market is overpriced
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The median trailing p/e ratio for the period running from 1973 to the present is 18.6, The S & P 500 has been running higher for 10 years, currently about 50% higher. (The ratio is not unprecedently high, however; there have been 73 months in the last 50 years when it was higher).
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Credit card debt, highest ever
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The Federal Reserve publishes data on financial obligation ratios, debt service ratios, mortgage debt service ratios, and consumer debt service ratios. They have issued data on 175 quarters since the end of 1979. The first three ratios are not the lowest recorded in that time, but they’re around the 5th percentile. The consumer debt service ratio is contextually higher, but it’s not the highest ever recorded. It’s around the 60th percentile.
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Our problem is excessive federal borrowing. And our political class is dominated by people who do not give a rip.
I think the point the guys in the All In Podcast is the fragility/interconnectedness of economies.
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If you’re peddling panic porn, that’s a helpful notion.
Stock market leverage, highest ever
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The ratio of margin debt to total market valuation in the U.S. was 0.0153 in May of this year. It was nearly twice that in 2009 and has been declining since then.
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https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/margin-debt.php
Art Deco,
Japan inflation rate 2024
2024 Jan- 2.1% Feb-2.8% March-2.7% April-2.5% May-2.9% June- 2.9%
2023 average was 3.3% for the year.
Stock market is overvalued
You used median trailing P/E 18.3. Trailing P/E in Feb. 2024- 24.01.
Credit Card debt is $1.1 trillion. You can argue I should use an inflation adjusted number. I don’t have one.
As to me “peddling panic porn”, it was J.J. that brought up the Japan carry trade, which was just one of many the guys discussed. I was interested in the recession discussion. I think they agree we were in a low level recession. The market is so fragile (overvalued?), bulls are trying to bully the fed to lower rates since the (overvalued?) will have a correction (maybe even a significant correction) it the economy slows.
Propping up the stock market isn’t one of the feds mandates.
stock market leverage
I was looking at the total dollar amount in margin accounts which is highest ever, not as percentage of total market valuation. Probably should have used an inflation adjusted number if I had one.
For example, in July 2024 margin accounts were $810 billion vs. $343 billion in July 2008.
I think the media focuses on the market to the detriment of the economy.
Republican pollster claims Trump is ‘destroying his re-election chance’ – as he reveals how the ex-president can get his campaign back on track
I think most anyone paying attention (besides Trump faithful) could tell Trump was way off his previous self since Harris became DEMs candidate. Didn’t take any polls to see that. Overly defensive faithful are also missing that fact, from what I see here.
Example: yesterday I linked to “Shock poll” – thinking to myself that the headline had to be a joke, since one could see that it was going to say Harris was ahead of Trump on the economy…Jeez, it was obvious, but I got a long ‘Lecture’ on it.
Only following politics since 2001, but had heard the old saying—long before my venture into politics that went something like this:
Anyway, in the article just linked to (a must read, IMHO, with an open mind…)–it points out this:
I saw that ARTICLE – which included a video showing a large crowd. He’s is literally more focused on crowd size than the border & economy issues…?!?!?!
well if you want your brain to fall out, yes thats an open mind,
Luntz was a protege of Richard Wirthlin right out of Oxford, then worked for Perot, and for a brief interval with Gingrich, then became thoroughly irrelevant by 2009, when the Obama infestation came to pass, when Betsy McCaughey and Michelle Bachman conveyed the evil of ‘death panels’ in the Stimulus bill
what can be said of Kamala, she has a low cunning, no evidence of any intelligence, a small talent for lies, a larger talent, (I don’t have to spell it out do I)