Polls show Trump gaining black voters
With the usual caveats regarding polls, take a look:
Trump has significantly shrunk his deficit with President Joe Biden among black Americans in the six battleground states, with the current president leading the former president 70% to 18%, a May New York Times/Siena College poll found. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” was stunned by how Trump is performing with black Americans as a Republican candidate, as well as how unpopular Biden is becoming with these voters.
Seventy to eighteen isn’t exactly doing poorly, of course. And it’s not nearly as unpopular as Biden should be. But it’s potentially very important, because any decline in black support for Democrats is potentially devastating.
More:
“I keep looking for this to change, to go back to a historical norm and it, simply put, has not yet.”
Depends, of course, on what “history” you’re going back to in order to find your “norm.” For a long time after the Civil War, black voters were Republicans.
More:
In 2020, Joe Biden was getting 86% of the African American vote. Look at where it is now. It’s 70%, that’s a 16-point drop, John,” Enten told host John Berman. “And more than that, it’s not just that Joe Biden is losing ground. It’s that Donald Trump is gaining ground. You go from 7%, single-digits at this point in 2020, to now 21% and again, John, I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal and I don’t see it yet in the polling of anything right now. We’re careening towards a historic performance for a Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.”
Six decades ago it was 1964, the year of the passage of the Civil Rights Act.
Most of the current movement of black voters towards Trump seems to come from men and in particular younger men (I read that earlier but can’t find the exact source in a quick search at the moment). But again, I would be cautious about believing overmuch in polls.
One thing that occurs to me, though, is that once a previously politically monolithic ethnic group starts turning in the other direction even a little, it could have a cascade effect in which it becomes less shocking for a person in that group to consider affiliating with a previously-despised party and its candidates.
I think this is a “preference cascade.” If so, it could speed up.
The Communists are usually described as a Party consumed by Power. We’ll see if that’s true. If they eject Joe and choose RFK, Trump won’t get a single black vote. BUT, RFK will do some things his way and not Obama’s. The question becomes will Obama subsume his ego and accept majority control over the government or will he reject RFK because he wants full control? I wonder if the “smartest person in the room” will be content with surrounding RFK with all of his sycophants? Time will tell.
Yeah, I think the ‘Party of Whites‘ is about to blow another Golden Opportunity…
The post-WWII era is over. What comes next no one knows. It can be guessed at and will be, but guessed at is the key. Perhaps it’ll be like the collapse of the Classical World.
perhaps there is reversion to the mean, yes all the crying over rodney king and most recently george floyd, what did that solve, in los angeles, it probably set back south central a generation, detroit never recovered from the riots, other places were just slightly behind the times,
The ballot harvesters are not going to collect black votes for Trump. The deep-blue precincts in the swing states are not going to wave provisional ballots for Trump through, or have any other shenanigans that favor black voters for Trump.
What you are seeing here is the Inner Party telling the Outer Party what they need to do and where they need to do it. They’re just trying to figure out how much fortifying is needed.
Remember that we’re getting this fourth hand: neo via Daily Caller via CNN via NY Times. CNN and NYT are not trying to help Trump get his ballots counted and NYT did not pay for this poll or spread this narrative in order to help Trump.
In addition it’s registered voters, not likely voters, so doubly garbage; after all having a majority of voters means nothing if they don’t vote ballots or their ballots don’t get counted. And the people whose ballots get harvested aren’t getting polled anyway.
This is the fundamental problem with getting our information from blogs. Blogs are almost completely dependent on mainstream media for their sources of fact. Those facts were already filtered to support a narrative. The right-leaning blogs select from those already-filtered facts to support a little bit different narrative, but if we had all the facts we might see that none of these narratives hold up. As it is, we end up believing things that serve the mainstream media’s narratives.
I can see a few of us here already beginning to hallucinate a red wave. That serves the media’s favored narrative. They want you engaged in the election and focusing on things that cannot help win it (the mood of black people) and off of things that could (how ballots are collected and processed in the few places where it matters).
It would be a very simple matter for them to only poll the deep-blue precincts, if they really wanted to predict the election. Notice that they never do. They don’t want polls showing that only 30% of voters there plan to vote and have the final turnout be 75%, nor do they want it to say 70% Biden instead of 90% when the ballots are counted.
But the party organizations do commission such polls. They are paying for actionable information so they can influence the election. The news media is paying for narrative fodder, and the polls they publish are worthless for understanding how the election will go.
Niketas Choniates:
Did you carefully read what I wrote?
Two times in what is a very short essay I warned not to rely much on this. It’s interesting, but there are so many ways in which it could be irrelevant that I didn’t list them here. I’ve written many many pieces on the subject, though, including warnings about fraud and “rigging.”
Polls are not all always worthless, actually. The trick is figuring out which ones are and which ones aren’t. Interestingly enough, if Democrats are going to run fraudulent elections, as you yourself point out they have to know how many votes to “rig,” or manufacture, or suppress, depending. If the polls are wrong in the anti-Trump direction, the fraudsters could be miscalculating.
I don’t know how long you’ve been reading my blog, but I’ve always been cautious about making optimistic predictions about elections in this country.
@neoDid you carefully read what I wrote?
I did, and I didn’t point anything I said at you specifically.
I nearly always, when I remember, address comments to you by using your handle. Otherwise, it’s intended to be an observation not pointed at anyone specific. Sorry for the confusion.
If the polls are wrong in the anti-Trump direction, the fraudsters could be miscalculating.
Depends on who they are. The party organizations commission different polls from the ones the media publishes. At any rate, they can safely miscalculate in one direction. They miscalculated in the other in 2016, and they will not be doing that again.
Important to remember that the value of the poll is primarily if it can predict the election. There are many reasons why these polls in the media don’t, and one of them is that the election is now spread out over weeks instead of a single day, so taking single snapshots at intervals doesn’t say much about what ballots were voted.
I don’t know whether Trump or Biden is going to win in November, but I know the winner certainly isn’t going to be RFK Jr.
Niketas Choniates:
This was your first paragraph:
I’m the blogger here. I’m the blogger giving out the information at this blog. Unless you specifically exempted me from those statements, it would seem that this blog and this blogger are included.
But the Nikblog will be the bestest. Not
And it is good to know that he really wasn’t speaking to neo, just to the rest of all y’all.
@neo: Unless you specifically exempted me from those statements, it would seem that this blog and this blogger are included.
If I made a statement about humans in general, or Americans in general, those statements would include you as well, though maybe not aimed at you or applying to you, but as you are a blogger perhaps you took it more personally than I intended, and I’ll try to be more clear that I think something I say applies to you or doesn’t if it might be taken as critical. Though some grace would be appreciated as it is not always easy to know how people will take things.
Yes, those statements, though not addressed to or aimed at you specifically, were a general observation that include your blog and all blogs getting their facts from the mainstream media–in fact explicitly when I said your post was sharing something fourth-hand:
Remember that we’re getting this fourth hand: neo via Daily Caller via CNN via NY Times.
But I did not include you among those being too optimistic about the polls. Yes, you are tweaking a narrative that’s already been supplied to you, but not in the same way some other blogs are. It’s the nature of the medium, and not a criticism, and people who are getting their news from blogs would do well to bear that in mind before they follow a narrative to their disappointment. Blogs can be a valuable addition to our sources of information, provided we can balance them with others somehow, because they tend to filter out facts in favor of narrative, intentionally or not. When blogs bring in other facts that shed light on the accuracy of the narrative, they’re at their best I think, and that’s one of the reasons I like to read them. I’ve liked yours as it’s usually more skeptical of narrative than most.
‘…if Democrats are going to run fraudulent elections, as you yourself point out they have to know how many votes to “rig,” or manufacture, or suppress, depending…’
Sounds reasonable; but….
…there’s no other reason to conclude that the polling in—was it four?—swing states was STOPPED in the early morning hours of Nov. 4, 2020 BECAUSE the Democrats MISCALCULATED…BIT TIME…
( cf. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/02/940689086/narrow-wins-in-these-key-states-powered-biden-to-the-presidency )
…leading to the history-making “Candidate suffering from dementia wins RECORD NUMBER of popular votes in American electoral history” headline…that wasn’t…
(Just like they miscalculated BIG TIME in Nov. 2016…except that in 2020…THEY KNEW WHAT THEY HAD TO DO just in case…)
“…getting our information from blogs…”
Really? Who “gets information” from blogs?
I’ve always thought they were amazingly useful because they’re SO much, much cheaper than therapy (even group therapy)…
I mean, what a DEAL!!
the rasmussen and tipp polls were probably more accurate because they calculated actual voters, but the wave orchestrated by elias and other parties,
upset those calculations, how can I conclude it, because he and his associates tried to bankrupt or jail anyone who challenged them, which has nevarr happened before, oddly the finding of the real dominion trial seems to have been suppressed, unlike all the hearsay related to the libel that the murdoch boys seem to taken a dive on, like the 1919 blacksox,
when the dems lost with hillary care in 1994, they learned not to make that same mistake again, they coopted the insurance companies, they took at least two senators that were in opposition, off the board, coleman and stevens either by fraud or lawfare,
I mentioned the ringer william allen, that the bureau used to go after stevens and his
NC-17 handler, miss kempner, who is still working at Hoover central at last check,
the possums like ben ginsburg took the lessons they learned from the coleman race and targeted miller, when veruca salt, murkowski did not win the primary, of course they used effective techniques like clearing the path for obama in 2004, by driving Hull and Ryan from their respective primaries,
the miller race, was part in parcel to making sure obamacare or more properly grubercare could not cancelled, the Possum made that very clear, in the way he shoots down the best targets,