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The Trump large post-indictment lead – bug or feature? — 22 Comments

1. I’m going to repeat this comment from the previous open thread, with a bit of a tag-on at the end.

   I just wonder: who exactly decided to serially prosecute Trump and thus empower him as a martyr, instead of letting him alone and trusting that he would step on his own tongue and lose out to a more defeat-able nominee?!
   I suspect someone who knew that there were terrible secrets that had to be hidden, and was willing to risk any consequence, no matter how terrible, to any number of innocents including those of the whole country, in order to do so.
   Answer: the Clintons. They put America in deadly peril by selling our ICBM technology to the Chinese for campaign cash many years ago, and have likely only learned to be more brazen since. Look how they have been able to marshal the entire force of US law against the one person who was shown able to thwart them!

   In addition, I tend to think the left has a much more defined hierarchy that they use to deploy their narratives.

   For example, the narrative is starting to emerge that the Republicans are “responding” to the Trump indictments by pushing weaponization inquiries against various agencies, especially the FBI. Of course anyone who doesn’t live in NPR-world knows that the evidence for FBI corruption and beyond has existed for a long time. It is the slowness of GOPe response to Democrat criminality that can give the illusion of reversed cause and effect!

2. it certainly doesn’t hurt to make Trump even more toxic in the eyes of those voters in the middle who might otherwise vote for him.

   I’m uncertain if it would necessarily work out the way the (D) powers that be may hope. All but the most irretrievably stupid potential voters know full well that this is clearly an entirely political prosecution. It’s just a matter of whether or not a given voter is actually OK with that.

   It’s not like this is some new thing here. We’ve all heard this tune many, many times before going back almost a decade now. This is just the latest in a long line of attempts to “get Trump”. We had the Russia hoax, the impeachment, and the endless and relentless lawfare efforts on and on ad nauseam. At this point, I’d be truly surprised if any of this actually shifts middle of the road voter’s opinions on Trump in a more negative direction. If anything this whole side show may just make them all look pathetic in the eyes of middle of the road voters rather than hurting Trump. There’s a big risk that this whole thing could backfire on them all really.

3. In addition, a subsidiary goal of the left is that the indictment will have a chilling effect on anyone who might want to work for Trump or for his campaign

   I think this is the primary goal.

   Trump could not get much done as President because he had no pool of experienced people to tap for positions. The lawfare guarantees that he never will, and should also help anyone thinking about working for any other potential Republican nominee to get their minds right about it too.

   Trump is not the only political figure to be subjected to lawfare. Tom Delay, Ted Stevens, Roy Moore, Brett Kavanaugh….

4. Nonapod, there are unfortunately quite a few voters who are not irretrievably stupid but who are irretrievably ill-informed, and who will make no effort to be informed before voting in 2024.

   I agree with Neo that this is what Democrats and the administrative state think the effect of the Trump indictment will be. They are taking a risk if too many people decide they have jumped the shark.

5. I’ve run into a Goldilocks analysis of the Dem strategy.

   They prefer to run against Trump — after he’s been damaged Just Enough for Dems to win.

   Damage Trump Too Much and he is forced to drop out of the nomination. Then Biden or X would have to face DeSantis with a fully roused R vote.

   Damage Trump Too Little and he enters the race against Biden strong and with a fully roused R vote.

   The plan is a bit too cute, since it requires rather precise control over a complex terrain to reach Just Right.

   But who knows. I wouldn’t want to underestimate the tactical intelligence of the left….

6. “Nonapod, there are unfortunately quite a few voters who are not irretrievably stupid but who are irretrievably ill-informed, and who will make no effort to be informed before voting in 2024.”

   Short Version:
   100% agree.

   1) The new “adults-in-the-room” are not capable of replacing the previous generations.
   2) A “Ruling Class” is the natural state.
   3) We are being conquered.

   Long Version:
   100% agree.

   Several decades ago I was sitting around a campfire in the jungles of PNG listening to some Brits & Ozzies debate the importance of the upcoming Euro. Eventually this Brit from the BBC opined that the Euro was destined to take the place of the Dollar as the world reserve currency. No one challenged his assertion.

   Then one of the Ozzies asked me what I thought. I told them that as long as some of the “adults-in- the-room” remembered the Marshall Plan, the Dollar would remain the world reserve currency. Some looked at me with vacant expressions, but the BBC Brit and the remainder understood what I meant, and moved on to another topic.

   in the past the population included “adults-in-the-room” that provided stability & leadership, and as one generation passed on the next generation took a seat. Now that the Greatest & Silent Generation have almost passed, we have come to find out that many of the new adults-in-the- room – the Boomer & Millennial Generations – cannot provide that stability & leadership.

   I am not without hope, but I am also not optimistic that we can sustain what the post-WWII generations built.** Over the past decades I have had the good fortune to travel on six continents, and it is clear to me that for most of the world a “Ruling Class” is the natural state for groups of people. That has been true for every period of recorded history.

   ** = “Americans and other Westerners who want their families to enjoy the blessings of life in a free society should understand that the life we’ve led since 1945 in the Western World is very rare in human history. Our children are unlikely to enjoy anything so placid and may well spend their adult years in an ugly and savage world, unless we decide that who and what we are is worth defending.” — Mark Steyn

   The “Ruling Class” victories have reached the point in western democracies that we – the non-ruling class majority – are in a rearguard stance. And most cannot comprehend that we are fighting for our freedom because there have been no “bullets” fired at them. I am 95% certain that at some point – our lifetimes, children’s lifetimes – we will be completely conquered.

   We will be conquered and forced to live under doctrine & laws we do not believe or support. Or those who we defeat will be forced to live under doctrine & laws they do not believe or support. And even if we win, that dynamic and conflict will not end in our/ their lifetimes because destructive & dangerous concepts have taken root.

7. Brandon is so weak that Trump *might* beat him, no matter what legal hurdles he faces. But as I’ve said before, I seriously doubt Brandon will be the Democrat nominee. And Trump is a sure loser against almost any other prominent Democrat.

   So yes, I think this is a feature.

8. The “tactical intelligence of the Left” reminds me of Hitler and Stalin: a knock on the door in the middle of the night, and the accused is dragged away, not to be heard from ever again.

   That is the situation we in America face today. The FBI has had Hunter’s laptop since 2019! Biden scatters classified documents for years on the floor of his garage as Senator and VP, and the Garland DOJ goes after Trump!
   Justice is vanishing. Good luck to all!

9. “ I think it’s often the case that people on the right underestimate the tactical intelligence of the left.”

   It’s overrated. Having the press on their side makes everything they do easier.

10. @ that guy > “The “Ruling Class” victories have reached the point in western democracies that we – the non-ruling class majority – are in a rearguard stance. And most cannot comprehend that we are fighting for our freedom because there have been no “bullets” fired at them. I am 95% certain that at some point – our lifetimes, children’s lifetimes – we will be completely conquered.”

    One of David Foster’s recent posts provides an interesting context.
    The non-ruling-class majority has been fighting the elites, and not just those of the Boomer & Millennial Generations, for a long time.

    https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/69580.html
    “Harvard–A View From 1835”

11. that guy: “it is clear to me that for most of the world a “Ruling Class” is the natural state for groups of people. That has been true for every period of recorded history.’

    Yes, that comports with what I have said here before. Most people, in most places for most of history just have gone along with whoever is in power. Because if you don’t very bad things are liable to happen to you and your family.

12. Biden will be replaced and thrown to the wolves. A new VP, probably Newsome, will be appointed and will be the de facto president.

    The new de facto president will “Clean House” after the Biden corruption and run as the savior against the pro-life extremists and haters in MAGA. President Harris will appear in public only to introduce Newsome and praise his help in cleaning up the Biden messes.

    The new Dem will actually run as a law and order middle of the roader who will finally Build Back Better. Biden corruption and the fight against it will command the headlines. A few wasteful expenditures will be stopped and endlessly reported as the new direction that will fix DC. Trump prosecutions will be endless.

    The Swamp will expel the Bidens and close ranks. Hillary love will be a common NYT WAPO LA Times topic. Just think how much better it would have been if the Russians had not stolen the election for Trump.

13. “Having the press on their side makes everything they do easier.”
    No doubt.
    (Also helps if you’re a drooling, raving psychopath**…)

    File under: What’s good for [Hillary? Biden? Obama? Comey? Brennan? etc…] is good for the country…

    **E.g., a “cute” example….
    “Federal prosecutor in Trump probe reprimanded in earlier case for secretly recording defense lawyer;
    “The prosecutor has been identified as Karen Gilbert, who has been identified as a U.S. Attorney’s Office’s lawyer in the 2009 case.”—
    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/prosecutor-trump-indictment-was-once-reprimanded-secretly

14. I always felt that the nomination of Donald Trump would guarantee a Democratic victory in 2024 and the Democrats seem to understand that that perfectly well. The specter of Donald Trump would make a lot of voters forget how awful Biden has been.

15. I would think that keeping Trump’s name in the news makes him more likely to get the nomination, and that the kind of publicity he’s getting would make it harder for him to win the election. But I also think that he was bound to get the Republican nomination anyway. Democrats may convince themselves that the prosecutions are making Trump the nominee, but wasn’t that in the cards anyway? It is true that they are making it harder for him to win the November election. I’m afraid I don’t have enough confidence in the electorate to believe that people who haven’t already seen through what the Biden Team is doing already are going to wake up before the election, or that they’ll see through the sham of these indictments.

    If by the “adults in the room” or the “grownups” we mean the talents FDR and Truman assembled to win the war and rebuild the world afterwards, it’s clear that there aren’t many “adults” around in politics or government now. Those “grownups” were hard-headed generals, admirals, businessmen, bankers, and corporate lawyers. They weren’t partisans or ideologues. They were focused on achieving practical tasks. They figured out ways to get around the entrenched bureaucracies. Some strategic thinking was provided by experts, but they let the practical men do the actual work. Propagandists and ideologues were needed to win the war, but the “adults” didn’t let them get in the way of practical work. Nowadays, everybody is political, everyone is a partisan, and the ideologues are running things. Trump had many problems with personnel, but his attempts to bring hardheaded military men and businessmen back into the Cabinet were a good idea.

16. Trump also set some real-world, practical goals for government. The current crew gets its goals from politics, ideology, pandering, and the lust for power. There’s Biden’s constant repetition that “We’re the United States of America. There’s nothing we can’t do if we don’t put our minds to it,” but somehow the administration and the country just keep floundering. Trump didn’t completely achieve his goals — that’s true — but he did change the conversation and change the direction of the country, at least for a time, and I count that as a win.

17. When Trump first declared for the presidency, I thought it was a clown show. I voted for him in 2016 to throw a figurative brick through the window. Then he did a lot of intelligent things and the country responded. Most of those things were by EO since Paul Ryan and the turtle opposed everything but tax cuts. Still we had a great run until the Chinese let loose their virus. Remember that Trump stopped travel from China and wanted to end the shutdown by Memorial Day. Those actions resulted in wild opposition. DeSantis did it in Florida and was trashed by the national media. There was already massive TDS and Trump might not have been able to do what he wanted. After all, the Chair of the Joint Chiefs was telling the Chinese we would not obey an order from Trump.

    Conrad Black thinks Trump can win in spite of the Lawfare. DeSantis does not seem to be setting the campaign on fire. We’ll see.

18. Next to crystal meth, free money/stuff from the government is the most addictive drug in the universe. And the Biden administration has been seeding future elections of promises of more free stuff.

    When was the last time you saw a MSM article on the federal deficit or national debt?

    Any stories about inflation recently?

    Given that we (the country through the MSM) don’t even talk about the fiscal health of the country, it doesn’t inspire confidence that any Republican candidate can break through the gravy train and win in 2024.

    Short of an economic catastrophe. In which case President Trump would have a credible chance. Even that isn’t a lock, as the recent bank collapses due to mismanagement have just been swept under the rug by promises of federal intervention. It seems there is no limit to the amount of money the federal government can borrow or print.
    This may be the hardest obstacle for any Republican candidate that still has a shred of fiscal conservatism left. It’s been almost completely drained, like blood letting of old, from a majority of Republican politicians veins.

    Spend a few minutes perusing this document.

    The federal deficit, annualized, was $1.7 trillion in Q1 2023, up over $1 trillion from Q1 2022.

    Interest payments were $929 billion, up from $603 billion the previous year.

    Table 3.2. Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures:
    Quarterly

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/tables?rid=53&eid=5272#snid=5308

19. @ AesopFan “The non-ruling-class majority has been fighting the elites, and not just those of the Boomer & Millennial Generations, for a long time.”

    Thank you for the link, good read, and 100% agree that there is an evergreen quality to many of the observations noted by Martineau:
    • “…the error of concluding that letters are wisdom, and that scholarship is education.”,
    • “…the primary social duty of educated men was to enlighten public sentiment as to what truth is, and what law ought, therefore, to be.”,
    • “There are a thousand mechanics shops, a thousand log houses where certain members of the Phi Beta Kappa Society, the orator of the day for one, might learn new and useful lessons on morals and politics,—on the first principles of human relations.”).

    Along with the age old “wisdom” of youth.

20. @FOAF “Most people, in most places for most of history just have gone along with whoever is in power. Because if you don’t very bad things are liable to happen to you and your family.”

    100% agree. To me that is why Steyn’ observation is so important – “…the life we’ve led since 1945 in the Western World is very rare in human history.” – and that my assessment of the current situation is in line with Victor Davis Hanson.

    “America’s bounty was predicated on each generation following the prompt of the prior, modulating when change was necessary, but not daring to tamper with the foundational principles and values that explained our singular wealth, power, and leisure. ”

    https://amgreatness.com/2022/06/26/america-is-more-fragile-than-the-left-understands/

    I’ll add that as lifelong resident of CA, VDH is living and writing about our future. Yet most cannot fathom that that is our future – that CA has been conquered – or that the entire foundation did not need to rot in order for CA to be conquered.

21. @ Abraxas “If by the “adults in the room” or the “grownups” we mean the talents FDR and Truman assembled to win the war and rebuild the world afterwards, it’s clear that there aren’t many “adults” around in politics or government now. ”

    100% agree with your definition and assessment. I’ll add that those men & women were not just found in politics and government. They were also found throughout our communities – and in our homes.

    Growing-up I had adults on a pretty high pedestal: They were fair, reasonable, logical, etc. Once I graduated uni and started my career, I realized that I had a lot of good role models and that does not apply to all adults.

    But at one time that did apply to many adults. And a common theme seemed to be they had experienced real hardship and/ or danger. (e.g., The Great Depression, War).

    I wish we could go back to counting on the adults-in-the-room to provide stability & leadership – and my assessment of the current situation is in line with Victor Davis Hanson.

    “Constitutional systems easily perish because they ask a lot of their citizens — to vote, to be informed about civic and political issues and to hold elected officials accountable. That responsibility is perhaps why, of the world’s true republics and democracies, only about 22 have been in existence for a half-century or more. We are seldom told, then, that America is a rare, precious and perhaps even fragile idea, both in the past and in the present.”

    https://victorhanson.com/victor-davis-hanson-america-and-the-dying-citizen/

22. that guy:

    I suppose we are seldom told it these days. But it is in the words of the national anthem – “Oh, say, does that star-spangled banner yet wave, o’er the land of the free and the home of the brave?” It’s also in the Gettysburg Address – “Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure…that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain — that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom — and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

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