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Random thoughts on New Year’s Day — 17 Comments

1. Happy New Year to you! If were to say 2021 couldn’t be worse than 2020, that would be tempting fate. I have no idea what will happen.

   My state GOP is urging me to call my two (R) senators, to urge them to object to the Electoral College count. I may do that. The evidence of fraud is compelling.

   But as to our personal lives, we just have to do what we can, and to resist the totalitarians to the extent we can.

2. Happy New Year, and let’s hope this crack in time heals itself in the coming months. An unusually hopeful comment from me

3. I’d feel like a hypocrite wishing anyone a ‘Happy’ New Year given that I see a terrible storm upon the horizon.

   I too watched about an hour of NBC’s coverage with my daughter and son-in-law. I repeatedly bit my tongue as it presented the most puerile of ‘performances’ and a stomach turning ‘interview’ with the Bidens, along with “social justice” affirmations from ‘celebrities’.

   Watching that morass of pablum, I thought of New Year celebrations held in my youth and reflected upon how far American culture has devolved.

   Which led me to recall this 1987 quote; “But there seems to have been an actual decline in rational thinking. The United States had become a place where entertainers and professional athletes were mistaken for people of importance. They were idolized and treated as leaders; their opinions were sought on everything and they took themselves just as seriously — after all, if an athlete is paid a million or more a year, he knows he is important … so his opinions of foreign affairs and domestic policies must be important, too, even though he proves himself to be both ignorant and subliterate every time he opens his mouth.” Robert A. Heinlein, “To Sail Beyond the Sunset”

4. Hi, Neo. I predict that there will be a number of deaths this year! I also predict that the sun will rise at least once! There – my boldness has manifested.

5. Happy New Year, Everyone.

   Who remembers the Curragh Mutiny? Blockbuster story of the year for sure if you had asked me in April or May 1914.

   Let’s fervently hope that the Great Covid Fear of 2020/21 remains the blockbuster story of the first half of the third decade. Just saying.

6. We just watched “The Wind and the Lion,” the 1975 movie with Sean Connery and Candace Bergen. It’s a movie, of course, but it portrayed an American spirit of courage, independence, and audacity. I don’t know if we still have those characteristics.

7. Glenn Reynolds has emphasised the best New Year’s quote from his observations on Insta: don’t blame the virus on a bad year, 2020. It’s more productive to blame CCP!

8. “The Wind and the Lion” — mega upvotes.

   “Pedicaris alive or Raisuli dead!” still resonates, despite the fact that the script took certain liberties with the historical account.

   Not that a movie like that could be made today, because, reasons.

   Including the sad fact that Sean Connery is celebrating the New Year in other realms.
   Note for today’s “influencers”: You may be cool – but you’ll never be Sean Connery cool.

   https://freedomshammer.files.wordpress.com/2017/02/sean-connery-wind-and-the-lion-dark-turban.jpg?w=1000

9. Mayor DeBlasio, of course, is never cool.

   https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/de-blasio-slammed-twitter-dancing-times-square-after-saying-dont-go

   This is probably the mildest of the internet-wide deprecations of the Prancing Princeling.

10. Happy New Year, 2021!

    Take care of your garden – we all have something close to care for.

    I was going to resolve to not procrastinate, but it’s already too late for that.

    Our doctor son and his doctor wife came to visit us on Thursday from Banska Bystrica, about 2.5 hrs away. Son has had the vaccine, daughter-in-law gets hers today (2 Jan, Sat.), so they left before 10:00 after breakfast & coffee. They plus two sons and wife & I made 6 (daughter went to boyfriend’s).

    We 6 had a fine New Year’s Eve playing Citadel, one of the newer card-money development games. (I almost won, but second son did). 7 can play, or 6 or 5 or 4… Was fun. Then our own fireworks at 22:45, in a nearby courtyard with other family. Then home for champagne. And. Chocolate Chip Cookies! We all love them… Next day another game of Citadel, where my wife and I were tied when our youngest son could kill a building of mine to make wife win, but instead killed a building of second son. And in tiebreaker (fewer bonus points), I won! How nice! (Whoop De Doo!) Fine game for any game players – our family is full of game players. We then looked at some Onion on YouTube. Not quite as funny as hoped for, sort of cringe-funny. Bonding or Bullying?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Ddg5ZD6Q1w

    Why am I here instead of Parler or supporting #StopTheSteal or something? I like it better here; and habit, thus ease.

    Neo continues her great work at making a comfy place for being fairly honest.
    Here’s a classic post on bias:
    https://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/08/21/the-illusion-of-asymmetric-insight/

    I suspect some less common visitors here feel Neo (+ us) have drifted quite a bit to thinking those that disagree are evil. I’m trying to avoid that. Their policies ARE terrible, but it doesn’t make them terrible people.

    I’m going to try and laugh at them a lot more – tho I’m too serious too often, and so much humor has a mean side to it, too.

    (HT Arnold: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/my-inte/#more-14739 – fine intellectual history notes there, too)

11. Hello, Tom. That’s a pretty interesting article; I saved it. I suppose one reason I post under my real name here and a few other places is touched upon by the discussion in that article.

    Citadels sounds like a rather intricate game. I notice on the creator’s blog that he mentions an Iranian version has recently been published, which he happens to note in passing, apparently without paying the cute rhyme any mind, as the “Persian version”, which tickles me. I had thought it might have sprung from the same group that generates things like Settlers of Catan, Outbreak and all those other spiffy European games in recent times.

12. “I suspect some less common visitors here feel Neo (+ us) have drifted quite a bit to thinking those that disagree are evil. I’m trying to avoid that. Their policies ARE terrible, but it doesn’t make them terrible people.”
    Just keep shuffling along, Tom, just like the German Jews on their way to the railroad cars.

    You would have it that Cuomo is not a terrible person. Just a mass murderer of old people in nursing homes by virtue of a policy of his. But not terrible.

    So tell us, wizard Tom Grey, what distinguishes a person of power with terrible policies that oppress us from an evil one who institutes and oppresses with terrible policies?

13. Cicero:

    I strongly object to your analogy of “shuffling along…just like the German Jews on their way to the railroad cars.”

    I have written on this topic time and again. Please read this on how the vast majority of German Jews left Germany during the 30s, even though it was extremely difficult to find any place to go, and how the vast majority of those who remained only did so because they couldn’t get out for various reasons. In addition, those who resisted were killed, and plenty of Jews also committed suicide rather than be deported. Lastly, there was a huge amount of clever deception on the part of the Germans, designed to reassure people about their destination. I have a post about that somewhere, too, but can’t find it at the moment.

    The Jews of Eastern Europe – as opposed to the Jews of Germany you were talking about – were for the most part caught in speedy Nazi invasions and had no ability to flee because no country would take them in. They were killed in various ways (shot initially; later groups were sent to camps to be murdered) and once again, those who resisted were killed outright.

    Also see this:

    For the Jews who died in gas chambers, the issue of resistance was moot – until as late as mid-1942, most Jews were unaware about the implementation of the Final Solution. Stripped of weapons, facing starvation and disease combined with the prospect of deportation, most Jews believed that they were being relocated to work. For virtually all, the reality that they faced immediate death did not occur until the doors of the gas chambers were sealed, the lights were turned off and the gas filled the rooms. But by then, it was too late.

    Those who did resist – either by running from the trains or attacking their captors – faced certain death. Some took advantage of this option and were summarily executed on the spot. Others chose to take their own lives when faced with the hopelessness of the situation. It might be argued that suicide under these circumstances was itself resistance.

    For others, deciding not to commit suicide but rather to make an attempt at survival amidst the hopelessness and despair of this situation was their resistance. Those that resisted more actively found that any success resulted in unintended consequences since the Nazis practiced collective responsibility. If a Nazi soldier was murdered by a Jew, not only was that Jew executed, but also his family and perhaps a hundred others. As a result, few Jews carried out active resistance from fear of reprisals.

14. Cicero, I actually DO think that most US Democrats, had they been living under Hitler, would be supportive Nazis, and haters of Jews. (And have said that here in the past.) Disagreement, leading to insults rather than arguments, then demonization, then justification for re-education camps because “they’re demons!!!“.

    Those Germans supported the doing of acts to support their country – not so different from Japanese folk supporting their invasion of China (including the Rape of Nanking), as well as Pearl Harbor surprise attack. Supporting your country, being Patriotic, is usually good – except when your gov’t is violently expansionist. Some Americans base their non-support of America on its imperialism (tho such folk mostly hate HATE Trump, who is anti-imperialistic).

    But the key question is HOW to peacefully change their minds?
    “You can’t use reason to change the position of folks who arrived at their position from emotions” (my paraphrase). Most college educated folk are emotionally committed to hating Reps, and thinking Trump is “evil” – and soon more obviously all Reps are evil.

    Democrat Derangement Syndrome. I would guess you didn’t even read the Illusion of Asymmetric Insight – but you should. It applies strongly to folk, like you in this case, who are sure that others with different opinions are so wrong that it justifies insults and steps towards demonization.

    Our fellow Americans, who think Reps evil, are wrong. And support bad Dem policies. But calling them evil, which is one of the wrong things they do against Reps, will not only change few minds, it will rather make them believe YOU are evil. It increases their emotional commitment to bad policies.

    Do you know, personally, like as a friend, any Dem voters for Hillary, 2016, who didn’t vote for Biden 2020? I don’t, and have many Dem friends (Dem, not “Leftist”, which is never on the ballot). That’s their failing – but also mine. And all Reps, who have failed to help Dems see the Truth. I don’t know how. 🙁 🙁 🙁

    A prior commenter noted about her mother not liking Reps – “They are so mean”. Opposing a (bad) policy whose proponents “intend” to have good results, is too often criticized as opposing the good results. (Libertarians against stupid gov’t programs are also considered mean by silly Dems, who think intentions are more important than results).

    Helping the poor is a good result. Ending racism is a good result. Social justice, where justice is a process of living under rule of law, that social justice is a good result. Dems think they’re good people because they support the intention of legislating the good result. I can at least talk with my Dem friends when I clearly agree about the desirability of the Good Result that we both want. How to get there? Does this policy advance or retreat or go sideways?

    Neo’s blog ain’t the place to laugh at folk afraid to use their real name. I’m not sure I would use mine if I were living in the US with my career at risk due to blog comments – that’s a sad reality of the PC-Nazis, the intolerant Woke cancel mobs. But I do try to write what I honestly believe AND try to offer constructive criticism.

    Phillip – Citadel is actually easier than Dominion, which my second son likes better (and wins most often). But yes, it’s like Settlers of Cataan in one very important way – nobody is eliminated. And the winner is often NOT the leader near the end, because of final turn possibilities and bonuses.

    Our family sometimes plays the old Age of Mythology (Microsoft!) game, since we can hook up 6 or 7 computers to our home lan. My wife doesn’t like the graphics of Don’t Starve, Together, so I don’t play it either, but all the kids like it (on lan).

    When in America, visiting my sister, we played Risk!. The older style game where folk ARE eliminated, also like Monopoly. Wife doesn’t like it so much, nor the very popular new Magic, The Gathering, which kids do like. One wife playing new family game is Carcassonne.
    https://www.gadgetreview.com/carcassonne-review

    The other to recommend is 7 Wonders (also up to 7 players):
    https://www.boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/68448/7-wonders

    Again – and why not all year? – Happy New Year to all.
    (And to all a good night)

15. “I was going to resolve to not procrastinate, but it’s already too late for that.” – Tom Grey

    Loved your link to “You are not so smart – The Illusion of Asymmetric Insight” but now I fear that I will have to read more of McRaney’s blog to enjoy his writing!

    The syndrome he describes may operate on the same brain-level as Gell-Mann Amnesia. Possibly the Dunning-Kruger effect as well.
    Not surprised to see this recent post at his blog:
    https://youarenotsosmart.com/2020/12/14/yanss-192-why-we-are-unaware-that-we-lack-the-skill-to-tell-how-unskilled-and-unaware-we-are/

    Kling’s post was very informative – and full of just plain common-sense, which is obtained at great expense of time and money by the experts.

    I assume the Tom G commenter is you? – interesting speculation on Trump’s MBTI personality. I think one of the most problematical parts of that system (and probably others I am less familiar with) is those people who fall close to the center on one of the factors.
    Number One Son remarked recently that, although he had always thought himself an Introvert, he had decided that was an artifact of being somewhat on the Spectrum and socially awkward as a child & teen; now that he is an experienced Program Manager in a high-level Technical field, he thinks he is actually a somewhat restrained Extrovert.

    Thanks for your many very thought-provoking comments; looking forward to reading more of them this year!

16. AesopFan: FYI on Dunning-Kruger:
    _______________________________________

    The darling of those who wish to explain why incompetent people don’t know they’re unskilled, the Dunning-Kruger effect may actually just be a data artefact.

    –“The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Probably Not Real”
    https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/dunning-kruger-effect-probably-not-real
    _______________________________________

    Critics of DK claim to have duplicated the effect with noise data. In which case the effect is not real.

    The Climate Hockeystick got busted the same way by feeding red noise into the climate algorithm and getting a hockeystick output no matter what.

17. Thanks, AesopFan. You, and Huxley, and so many other commenters are so often good. There’s so MUCH to read – why not let Neo read it all and then mostly follow her links when she (finally…) publishes the almost unfailingly good stuff she publishes? And Montage or other Dem semi-trolls here is better than if I have to look more for them. Can’t stand most news.

    I actually do mostly follow Neo, Arnold S. Kling (ASKblog, where I’ve been Tom G for years), and Instapundit the most, when I look at some of their chosen links, and that’s usually too much if I also want time with family and fun time.

    I sort of have Holocaust fatigue, because it’s been overcovered as compared to Rwanda’s Hutu-Tutsi (’94) massacres, and Cambodia’s Killing Fields (of all educated folk, ’75-’79; ended by Viet invastion), and both post WW II China mass murders of The Great Leap Forward (’58-’62) and The Cultural Revolution (’66-’76 ). I think all of these genocides have a huge amount of Asymmetric Insight aspects, plus envy leading to insults, demonization, killing.

    Even so, the Euro “civilized” Nazi killers seem most like us WEIRD (Western Educated Industrialized Rich Developed) folk, Western Civ like us.
    https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/23/the-police-and-us/
    What happened beginning around three years later in Maniz and throughout the Reich? That policeman and others like him did their duty as they helped people like Mrs. Gann and Lewis’ friends do their duty by climbing into the cattle cars taking them to the camps. No hard feelings among good Germans.

    If I was still in CA, I’d be leaving (for Texas?) – but I’ve been long gone. I would certainly be looking at #StopTheSteal for places to protest.

    What the non-college GOP voters do vs the GOPe actions and desire will likely be quite messy for the next few elections. Until pro-American, pro-family, anti-elites take over the party – driving the GOPe deeper under cover. Much like current conservatives in academia hide their true opinions.

    The obligation to accept lies is terrible.
    All races deserve equal rights under the law – and all races have various group behaviors which are similar, and others which are different. And results track behavior more than tracking what race one is. But race always matter, some.

    Pushing normal folk to accept the lie that “different behavior by races should still result in similar outcomes” is one of the Big Lies the Dems (no “Left” on the ballot) are pushing people to accept. Similar dishonesty with sex.

    Accepting the lies is part of accepting the insults; accepting the demonization; accepting the dehumanization; accepting taking away individual rights. I hope and pray that US trend changes before massive violence erupts.

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