COVID case increases vs. death increases
Here’s an interesting article – the only one I’ve found so far that compares death rates in the very elderly (over 80) towards the start of the pandemic to deaths in that same age group recently. There’s been a big drop in the percentage of people who die (Illinois is one of the states currently experiencing a spike in cases):
Illinois’ overall CFR [case fatality rate] data since the inception of the virus shows that the fatality rate is now just over 2 percent. However, that’s heavily influenced by the 22 percent CFR [average over time] for those 80 and older. The fatality rate for those under 20 is just 0.012 percent.
Those numbers drop significantly, however, when you look at the deaths and cases of just the past three months. The CFR for those 80 and older has fallen to 13.3 percent. While still deadly for too many, that’s a significant improvement in the CFR of more than 30 percent [for that age group] during the May/June peak.
On the other end of the spectrum, the CFR for school-aged children has collapsed even further to 0.006 percent.
That’s the sort of news that doesn’t get a whole lot of publicity.
I’ve also noticed, by looking at graphs for each state at Worldometers, that many states have case levels that are up, but there’s a lot of variety. Some are only up to previous levels, some are up higher, some are experiencing a rise but the level is still considerably lower than it was for that state at peak. For many, though, death levels either have not risen from quite low levels, or have risen only slightly. The worst numbers seem to cluster in the midwest, but I have no idea why.
If Biden becomes the next president, I would not be the least bit surprised if, after his inauguration, COVID reporting shifts from alarm at high case rates to credit for lower death rates.
Seasonality explains a lot for when certain areas are hit. Another theory is latitudinal. In the first wave the hardest hit areas (Italy, France, Spain, US northeast) were on similar latitudes. Then the so called second wave hit California, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida again all on similar latitudes. Now we are back to the northern latitudes.
In the US it seems like everywhere is going to get hit (though less severely as you mentioned) just at different times. It’s why it is so stupid to say so and so did so great. No, they didn’t virus gonna virus.
One oddity is why did Belgium get hit hard (with lower death rates) a second time. A very small country would seem likely to burn through it faster.
Well how can he shut the economy down if the Covid is gone ?
A dilemma resembling the guy with two buttons to choose from.
A really good possible explanation for the rise in hospitalizations is the designating of Remdisivir as a standard of care treatment on October 22. Since this is a five day treatment and also in hospital we could be seeing more people with mild symptoms or other high risk conditions being admitted to the hospital to be administered Remdisivir.
It is such an outrage that it takes independent citizens and data analysts to uncover so much of this. The lack of transparency when the lives of so many people are being whipsawed is just outrageous.
Mike “Well how can he shut the economy down if the Covid is gone ?”
I think that the dictators will not let up just yet. And if Bidens’ COVID czar wants and gets a 4-6 wk shutdown the fun will really start.
Cases past, present, possible, and probable. Evidence of viral spread and community immunity, despite restrictive mandates, but with delayed, prolonged exposure and spikes. That said, close Planned Parent facilities that are accountable for nearly half of Covid-19 coded deaths. That and medical centers are central venues for contagion, where following protocol by trained personnel is a hard problem over time, space, and diversity (e.g. individual patients).
Covid19 has been weaponized … period.
Whatever will help Biden will be the meme of the day in MSM. It will be fluid to suit the need of Biden. He said we’ll follow the science. That will morp into we’ll follow science IF it doen’t harm us!
Watch and see!
Also, it appears that both in Europe and the US deaths are still occurring at very high percentages in LTC facilities. I think the number for Minnesota was 23 out of 36 deaths reported yesterday were LTC.
This leads one to a couple of possible conclusions:
1) Staff and authorities are still not doing enough to protect the vulnerable.
2) There really isn’t anyway to protect some of these people because they are in such poor health and are near death anyway.
After dealing with my mom’s situation for over nine months (sigh) I’ve sadly come to the conclusion that 2) is the likely truth. people have never given any thought to life spans of people in LTC but now we pretend like we can control it somehow. Maybe we can’t.
Mike+K:
“A dilemma resembling the guy with two buttons to choose from.”
Please don’t make things more complicated than they are: Biden has a hard time with only one button to choose from. /S/
As I mentioned earlier today in the previous thread, but I think it needs to be emphasized, serious cases went from 19k to 32k in a single day. Almost a 100% increase where for the past 30 days it was increasing by about 2%/day during this 3rd wave. Someone is either totally incompetent, or someone noticed that this parameter was not in line with the huge surge in cases and decided we need more panic. What’s bizarre is that instead of upping the numbers in a more subtle manner over the course of say a week, they just dump it all in a single day. As if no one with any sense of data would not notice.
An interesting guy to check out is Kevin Roche.
http://www.healthy-skeptic.com
The weakest are the easiest to be put down. By anything.
But I continue to wonder about facts being pseudo-facts. Are all positive virus tests counted as “cases”? Or, as should be the situation, be limited to those with symptoms and signs of the actual COVID infection? What about the not-trivial number of false positives and negatives?
Why are there no data on severity of this illness? For decades the American Heart Association has had category classifications for heart disease, including one for the severity of heart failure, and another for the degree of coronary heart disease.
physicsguy,
Have seen crazy stuff like that all along. Huge data dumps that are then used as hysterical headlines, labs reporting thousands of only positive results and on and on.
Would be curious the break down of that data you mentioned. Is spread somewhat evenly over many states or is being driven by a major state like Illinois.
This week I lost to elderly clients to the Covid. Both in nursing homes.
CBS, NBC and ABC went into overdrive this evening leading with CASES, DEATHS everywhere!
But the real message was for Trump to concede and let Biden takeover.
Two elderly clients.
“Why are there no data on severity of this illness?”
Because then there would be evidence that panic was unnecessary. And they want to keep up the panic.
Cornhead, I’m sorry. 🙁
Well here in WA we are getting locked down again tomorrow. No indoor dining no indoor gatherings (have fun enforcing that) retail limited to 25% capacity. Have fun standing outside in the rain and cold for groceries.
These people are pure evil.
The flip of the script, if it does happen, will be attributed to supporting ScIenCe where those in the medical and science field will be put on a pedestal.
Griffin:
They are and they like it. After all, their policies worked the last time. /sarc/
om,
Yep, and Inslee is so clueless he will just go back to what he did before. Thanksgiving is going to be really interesting. Will we see snitching on your neighbor? Call 911 if there are seven cars in driveway?
Griffin:
Will the police respond? Suggest that the Health Department send a social worker? What will Karens do?
We had just started having church services again about 3 weeks ago, oh well that must be stopped. It is for the “good of the people.” Can we have our 1st Amendment back King Jay?
om,
The right of people to peaceably assemble. Is that not still in the constitution.
And of course governors can’t just proclaim a bunch of things. The legislature passes laws the governor signs them.
This is my favorite data tracking page. It’s just Florida, but it does show by month what the hospitalization and death rates are, broken down by age:
https://business.fau.edu/covidtracker/data/florida-data/index.php
It doesn’t surprise me that the business people are tracking this better than the medical people. First Trust Economics blog’s weekly one-page covid update is also a must read.
Ann in L.A.,
Yes, Rebel Cole and Jon Taylor at FAU have done a great job. The data analysts are far better than the medical people for sure.
The story of Kyle Lamb is so typical. Before all this he was just a data guy who also did an Ohio St football podcast but he has produced some great information like about the magically disappearing flu. And for his work Gov. DeSantis of Florida hired him to a low level data analyst job. Great, right? Now he’s being attacked and doxxed by a bunch of internet ‘journalists’.
What a vile time we live in.
Another site for people who may be interested in this topic is Rational Ground. Made up of a bunch of journalists, data analysts, and think tank people. Good mix of data and text.
http://www.rationalground.com
Griffin —
Inslee (spit) is supposedly decreeing the new lockdown for four weeks. What do you want to bet that will get extended for another four? He’s already said people should rethink their Christmas plans.
Well, wonder of wonders, the 32k serious case number from yesterday, today became 19.5k in this morning’s update. I might give whoever did that credit for catching a mistake and correcting it. I might….except I’ve become such a incredible cynic.
Pingback:Sorta Blogless Sunday Pinup » Pirate's Cove
“If Biden becomes the next president, I would not be the least bit surprised if, after his inauguration, COVID reporting shifts from alarm at high case rates to credit for lower death rates.”
Bingo!
Bryan Lovely,
Yes it is a mortal lock it will continue until after New Year’s at least. His press conference this morning will be him at his moralizing lecturing worst.
I still can’t get over that 25% retail occupancy limit including grocery stores apparently. That is just outrageous.
You’ve got to lock them down, shut them up, and keep them distracted while the steal is completed, for their own good. The exquisite wisdom of King Jay, Emperor Nuisance, and Katherine the Grate. The trifecta of west coast despots.
om,
One of the absolute truisms is what starts in California comes to Washington. It used to take a couple years now it’s down to a week or two. Never fails to happen.
Some Republican governors are taking Covid seriously.
Utah Republican Gov. Gary Herbert announced a statewide mask mandate.
Masks “do not negatively affect the economy,” he said, adding, “we cannot afford to debate this issue any longer. Laws are put in places to protect all of us,” he said. “That’s why we have traffic lights, speed limits and seat belts, and that’s why we now have a mask mandate.”
Wyoming Republican Gov Mark Gordon gave a passionate plea Friday morning for residents to take the COVID-19 pandemic more seriously as cases rise.
“Our capacities are overwhelmed. It’s time that Wyoming woke up and got serious about what it’s doing,” Gordon said at a news conference at the state capitol in Cheyenne. He said it’s time for people to quit being “knuckleheads,” about the virus.
These governors are not trying to placate the Democrats in their state since there aren’t that many! Trump won WY with 70% of the vote and UT with 58%. It’s good to hear some Republicans taking Covid seriously.
Montage:
Somehow the Gov. of South Dakota and Gov. of Florida aren’t following Emperor Nuisance, King Jay, or Katherine the Grate.
Enjoy your lockdown.
Wyoming Republican Gov Mark Gordon gave a passionate plea Friday morning for residents to take the COVID-19 pandemic more seriously as cases rise. “Our capacities are overwhelmed. It’s time that Wyoming woke up and got serious about what it’s doing,” Gordon said at a news conference at the state capitol in Cheyenne. He said it’s time for people to quit being “knuckleheads,” about the virus.
From September 10th to October 27th, the net increase in the seven day moving average of diagnoses in Wyoming was 289. From September 28 to November 14th, the net increase in the seven-day moving average of deaths recorded was 6. The ratio of the latter to the former is 0.02, which is about the median among European countries at this time.
About 12% of their hospital beds are currently occupied by COVID patients. They got a comparatively mild dusting last spring, so there’s a certain amount of dry tinder around. Their current hospitalization rate is about 67% above national means.
The problem is not that people are ‘not taking COVID seriously’. That’s a dumb meme to go along with all the other dumb memes that partisan Democrats push. The problem has been that our state governments have generally refused to set priorities or to creatively organize ways to protect those actually vulnerable. Instead, they impose useless measures like school closings. Another problem has been that the CDC and the FDA are staffed with inept and unadaptable people who have a crucial points made things more trouble than they otherwise would have been. There’s nothing wrong with wearing masks, but it’s doubtful that’s more than a weak vector in influencing outcomes.
Montage: there’s considerable evidence the current surge of cases has more to do with PCR testing than an overwhelming infection rate. I’m not saying there’s not an actual increase in infections during this 3rd wave, but it’s certainly not the near vertical line on the graph that has been happening for the last 30 days. Meanwhile here in the NE, there’s a meeting afoot called by Cuomo to include Murphy, Lamont, and the governors of RI and MA. Want to guess what the result of that meeting will be?? My wife did, and she’s out doing all her xmas shopping now before they close everything down here again. How I wish I was in Florida.
” and the FDA are staffed with inept and unadaptable people who have a crucial points made things more trouble than they otherwise would have been.”
Here’s the proof: https://www.fda.gov/media/134922/download in which the FDA recommends a minimum of 40 cycles in the PCR test. There’s extensive literature, and even a quote by the sainted Fauci that any PCR test with cycles above 35 will result in a whole slew of false post ivies. So if these companies are following FDA guidelines, then that probably shows that up to 70% of the Current “cases” are not real, or at worst, post-infection.
physicsguy,
Well here in WA our idiot governor has just shut us down again including 25% occupancy for all retail including grocery stores effective Tuesday @12:01 am. Already hearing about massive lines at grocery stores. What a joke.
Montage:
You seem to have as many strawmen as The Sorcerer’s Apprentice had brooms.
Masks are not the issue. They are a very minor issue compared to the far more Draconian measures imposed by many of the Democratic governors as compared to Republican ones.
In WA he now proclaims you cannot gather with anyone outside your household. So if you live alone sorry have fun by yourself.
Criminal oppressive conduct, especially on the Left Coast.
Elections have consequences. Democrats vote to oppress themselves.
Griffin: whatever happened to civil disobedience? Is everyone in WA a subject, not a citizen with civil and constitutional rights?
Cicero,
Well he just announced this two hours ago but people are furious. Just talked to someone who was at a grocery store and it was absolutely being bombarded.
Most people won’t follow the gathering mandate but the sheep in Seattle probably will.
This time may be different we will see.
I’ve said it before…
These people are going to cancel Christmas!
In WA he now proclaims you cannot gather with anyone outside your household. So if you live alone sorry have fun by yourself.
If Trump had won the election unambiguously, you’d be allowed to gather in order to riot at the federal building.
Neo,
Every governor has difficult choices to make. I hope you agree with that. If you were a governor what would you do? Being responsible for the local economy vs being responsible to people’s lives is not the easiest choice.
It seems most governors – regardless of party – are trying to balance the risks with not closing the economy. I get it. I definitely do not want to close down again but the rise in cases before winter sets in is concerning.
Mike DeWine Republican governor of Ohio today just reimposed another mask mandate and is considering lockdowns again. I don’t view such actions as political. This is why I point out Republicans who are making these choices. I know they care about their states. Just like Newsom and Inslee and all Democratic governors do.
And, sorry, but for some masks are definitely an issue. It is not a straw man argument at all. Some Republicans are opposed to masks because they think it limits personal liberties.
Marjorie Taylor Greene newly elected House member in GA tweeted this inanity:
“Masks, masks, masks…. I proudly told my freshman class that masks are oppressive. In GA, we work out, shop, go to restaurants, go to work, and school without masks. My body, my choice. #FreeYourFace”
Because people can’t shop, go to work or school or workout without a mask? I’ve been in movie theatres, bookstores, supermarkets and worn a mask. It’s not hard. The economy can still remain open and people can move about.
But she doesn’t understand why people wear masks. She sees only the ‘oppressive’ part not that part about spreading the virus to other people.
Every governor has difficult choices to make.
Ha ha. The ‘difficult choices’ they made include
1. School closings (even though the young are nearly invulnerable to this ailment).
2. Harassment of people for open-air activities like visiting beaches and vacation property.
3. Extensive permissions granted to Burn Loot and Murder and Antifa.
4. And the Cuomo special: discharge COVID patients to nursing homes.
5. Mail in balloting to facilitate vote fraud.
There’s a reason nobody sensible takes these people seriously. Set priorities and people just might take you seriously.
Mike DeWine Republican governor of Ohio today just reimposed another mask mandate and is considering lockdowns again. I don’t view such actions as political.
The moving average of the daily death toll in Ohio has fluctuated between about 10 per day and 30 per day since the beginning of June and the recent increase in ‘cases’ had only the weakest echo in actual deaths.
Again, what ‘lockdowns’ do is redistribute cases between time periods (and injure the productive economy).
But she doesn’t understand why people wear masks.
She understands perfectly well. She just thinks they’re ineffective toward that end.
Montage on display yesterday and today.
And people still would welcome this fool into their digital house for anything except as a source of mockery?
Earth to Montage – where does it say in the CA, OR, or WA constitution that the Emperor, King, or Empress is “responsible” for the state economy?
Montage:
ACAB = All Commies Are Bastards.
A progressive is just a stealth socialist and a socialist is just a communist who hasn’t gotten all the power he lusts after.
I’m no longer in the camp that if Biden/progressives win, Covid will be dropped. No, Covid has become the best vehicle for bypassing checks and balances on government overreach. The Covid statistics will be every bit as useful to politicos and useless to everybody else as pre-election poll numbers. If you liked practicing the religion of your choice, speaking your mind freely, and enjoying assembly with family and like minds; you can just forget about doing these unhealthy things in the future.
“But she doesn’t understand why people wear masks.”
I guess you’d have to say the same thing about me. Here in NV, Governor Sisolak mandated masks about six weeks ago, and in public, he has been careful always to wear his N-95 mask. Three days ago, he reported that he had tested positive for COVID.
An N-95 mask is designed to screen out anything 95 microns or above. The last time I looked, the COVID viron is 93 microns. As the wags say, that’s like screening your house against mosquitos with a chain link fence. People who like to call for mask use don’t have to demonstrate that they work.
F:
N95 refers to the filtration efficiency for particles of a specified size range by NIOSH or if a medical N95 by NIOSH and the FDA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N95_respirator
Here is some particle size info for an N95 respirator from OSHA
COVID-19 | COVID-19 Frequently Asked Questions …
https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/covid-19/covid-19-faq.html
“If worn correctly, the N95 respirator will filter out at least 95% of particles this size. An N95 respirator is more effective at filtering particles that are smaller or larger than 0.3 microns in size. The N95 respirator filter, as is true for other NIOSH-approved respirators, is very effective at protecting people from the virus causing COVID-19.”
Grain of salt required …… as a respirator used incorrectly does little.
I’m not sure what to make of the “filtering particles that are smaller or larger than 0.3 microns” text.
My sister and niece arrived for a visit just in time. We got in a day of sightseeing yesterday and now everything in New Mexico is closed or take-out.