Giving up on Gaza peace
I see a great deal of current commentary saying that things will never work out in Gaza, that Trump and Netanyahu were foolish to think it would, and that it’s all over there and Hamas has won.
It’s been what – two and a half weeks? – since the deal was announced and the hostages came home, and the Gazans aren’t singing Kumbaya? I would wager that neither Trump nor Netanyahu are surprised by this.
This is what I wrote not long after the hostages came home:
The problem is deeper than these people [the terrorists that were released by Israel in exchange] – much deeper. And any more permanent solution will have to be more comprehensive.
That’s what the larger Plan is all about. You can hear people saying it’s a trap and now Israel has snatched defeat from victory, and you can hear people say it has great promise. I submit that no one knows at this point and so I think that sort of talk is a waste of time. As events play out it will become more clear. Will that take a month, a year, two years, or a decade? I certainly don’t know that, either. But let’s give it a chance. Do we have any choice?
Trump is a hero today, especially in Israel. You can read about that here. He seems to think the war is over, or at least he thinks it’s a good idea right now to accentuate the positive. But he’s a practical man, and knows that it may be necessary to resume military operations at any time.
Israel knows it, too. But today’s a day to celebrate.
Well, that day of celebration is in the past, although the recent past. And the hostages are still home, which means the focus is no longer on them and on making sure they don’t get killed by Israel as Israel battles Hamas.
But for anyone who thought that Hamas wouldn’t violate the ceasefire – well, I want to try to sell them that proverbial bridge. Anyone who thought this would go smoothly – same thing. It seems pretty clear to me that the rest of the Plan will be extraordinarily difficult and will take a very long time even if ultimately successful.
Will the other countries that pledged to help actually help? I very very much wonder. But I repeat that I don’t think either Trump or Netanyahu are naive about this, and I think we don’t know the half of what’s happening and what will happen with these countries behind closed doors.
And I also think that engineering the hostages’ return – getting that done initially rather than later – was one of the main points of the deal. Israel needed a rest, even if it’s a short one. It’s a tiny country that’s been on a war footing for two long years. The “ceasefire” – any ceasefire in the area – should always have scare quotes around it, for the foreseeable future.
After October 7, 2023 – never such innocence again.
https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1982184182169387177
No clue why people might fancy that ‘Hamas’ has won.
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I would prefer that Hamas lose more thoroughly. That means the entire tunnel system is destroyed and any armed man who commits and act of violence is liquidated on the spot.
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I’m not hopeful, because the crux of the problem is the lack of constructive objects on the part of the Arab bosses which is a function of the lack of them among about 2/3 of the population at large. This has been a persistent feature of Arab society in this part of the eastern Mediterranean for a century, so I don’t see that going away.
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The other surprise here is the rapidity and thoroughness with which figures living in the occident were willing to give succor to this mentality, as well as lying their asses off. (The new President of Ireland refers to Israel as a ‘genocidal state’).
Apparently, the clan that Hamas went after and started executing has reached out to Israel about working together. We’ll see how that goes.
Israel needs a rest for sure. One thing I have not seen discussed is the effect of the prolonged war on Israel’s economy. Given their heavy reliance on the reserves, who contribute nothing to the economy when on active duty, there must be a tremendous drain on the country’s finances.
I’ve always assumed Hamas was going to FAFO.
But hooray! The hostages are back and Israel is free to do what needs to be done in Gaza with Hamas.
Not that that will be an easy task, not that there won’t be setbacks, but Israel is in a far superior place than it was on Oct 8, 2023 while Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran are far weaker.
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And the days that I keep my gratitude higher than my expectations
Well, I have really good days.
–Ray Wylie Hubbard “Mother Blue’s”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rIQVG0Bcu6w
OK, will it last? No. But right now it gives Israeli Military a breather. Regroup, rest, rearm. I can not think that Israeli military is not monitoring Hamas very closely. Next time they do go in, they will have a great deal more intel.
Having watched Hamas and their terrotist ilk in the region for a few decades, it seems to me an enormous victory to get all of the living hostages back, at once, while still in control of 53% of that awful Gaza strip. Israel and the US know Hamas will constantly violate the cease fire, which means Israel will not need to pull back. And they have no more worries about their hostages being used as human shields in protection of those terror tunnels. Fire away!
I read/ heard it speculated that Israel is hoping to create a “West Germany” (Gazans wanting a normal life migrate to that side) and “East Germany” (Gazans wanting Hamas) in the Strip. I shouldn’t say ‘create’, humans can’t do that. Emerge is the better word, – even if it works it will take a really long time. But, it’s the best idea or conjecture I’ve heard.
Paul S
great idea to form east and west Gazans, etc. but of course the real issue is how to avoid infiltration and subjugation by Hamas elements.
the peaceful Gazans would have to report them at great personal risk.
A caveat: Israel doesn’t need to worry about hostages while they dismantle Hamas – until the terrorists take some new ones.
Israel has to quit mucking around with their cut-throat internal politics and get serious about “never such innocence again” or the cycle WILL start again.
I know Paul was using the West and East German examples without regard to the cardinal directions, but Israel would be safer if the “East German” Hamas-niks were on the WEST side of the strip. It’s an awfully narrow space for that to work out, even if some of the clans opt to be the “West Germans” (per Lee Also’s observation).
I would think ousting Hamas completely, per Art Deco’s recommendation, is the only viable option for an “everlasting peace” (harsh but true).
Neo is right that we don’t know what all of Trump’s back-room deals in the region entail, but we do know that he does NOT respond favorably to people who spurn his peace deals.
And a macabre question: Trump said “Hamas is going to have to start returning the bodies of the deceased hostages,” which is a highly-valued objective of Israel and the affected families.
I know that ordinarily Jews do not embalm bodies, but bury them as soon as possible after death (and many additional traditional rituals as well). Do Muslims embalm bodies, and did Hamas embalm the dead hostages?
Given that no one seems to have been “in charge” of the entire group, dead and alive (or at least Hamas wants us to think that), what condition have the bodies been in when returned?
I was interested to see that the traditions are quite similar for both religions, perhaps there is a connection because of the necessities of desert living in earlier eras.
https://www.funeralbasics.org/jewish-funeral-customs/
https://blogs.mittarv.com/muslim-funeral-traditions-etiquette/
The bodies have always been returned in coffins, and forensic identification has concluded twice that the alleged person was not the one in the coffin. TOI says that Hamas claims they are having to dig bodies out of rubble (Israel’s fault of course!), so I’m assuming most of the remains are not, shall we say, intact.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-believes-hamas-could-return-most-deceased-hostages-argues-it-is-breaching-deal/
This is Secretary Rubio’s latest statement, it’s blunt to say the least.
I think he has been a really good fit for this office; I was iffy about him as President, although still preferable to ANY Democrat and a lot of Republicans.
https://nypost.com/2025/10/25/world-news/rubio-vows-to-return-bodies-of-all-dead-hostages-as-israeli-officials-hope-hamas-returns-two-more-on-sunday-we-will-not-rest/
“team from Egypt entered the Gaza Strip to sift through the rubble to help locate their remains.
Rubio was in Jerusalem to meet with families of dual US-Israeli citizens Itay Chen, 19, and Omer Neutra, 21 — slain hostages whose bodies are still located somewhere inside the Palestinian enclave.”
One of the more craven responses by Biden Inc in 2023 was their desultory actions about retrieving American citizens, even back when most of them were still alive.
This is a more extensive report on Rubio’s visit to Israel.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/rubio-at-gaza-ceasefire-hq-israel-has-met-its-commitments-hamas-must-disarm/
More on the peace deal itself, the progress so far, and the setbacks and roadblocks ahead.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-weighs-which-sides-red-line-to-cross-as-it-seeks-to-implement-gaza-deals-2nd-phase/
One objection I have is we tend to over-focus on Hamas. In particular we see this as a way of trying to isolate wider Gazan and Balestinian Society from culpability in the crimes we saw like Oct 7th. And sure, Hamas is by far the chief perpetrator of it, with its leaders and their allies providing the dictatorial leadership behind the atrocities and strategies as well as most of the fighters. But I think this can be taken too far.
People tend to ignore that Hamas has governed Gaza in a coalition government, and has fought the war as a coalition. It may be the kind of coalition we saw in totalitarian one party state systems like the “coalition parties” in North Korea, where they exist as basically sock puppets of the dominant one, but they exist (and generally moreso). Balestinian Islamic Jihad claims to represent a purer interpretation of the Muslim Brotherhood in Gaza and the Levant. And of course there are those darlings of the foreign left the “Democratic Front for the Liberation of Balestine”/DFLB/DFLP and the “People’s Front for the Liberation of Balestine”/PFLB/PFLP, as well as a host of lesser mostly Fatah schisms like the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. All of these groups have engaged in terrorism, mass murder, mass rape, kidnapping, and other crimes against humanity and the rules of war, and many of them were part of Hamas’s coalition rule in Gaza after its purge of Fatah. Moreover Hamas has used their semi independent nature and identity as a means of plausible deniability by giving them custody of hostages so it can claim it did not know the location or status of them all (and at times that might even have been true) and as backdoors to restart things. They should be viewed as just as guilty of this as Hamas and just as necessary to be destroyed for justice and peace, because if overlooked in favor of just fixating on Hamas they will spawn again.
This is leaving aside the significant atrocities of “civilians” which while ginned up by Hamas and its allies and planned by them cannot entirely exonerate the participants or society at large, even if I am inclined to be somewhat more lenient or slow to judge given the intentional level of control and terror Hamas etc Al did.
Dishonorable mention should go to the likes of Fatah, Egypt, and others which while not directly allied with or fighting alongside or under Hamas have played a sick double game almost as much as Qatar and so of simultaneously condemning Hamas etc Al and apologizing for it while condemning Israel.
Hamas is the prime culprit of this atrocity and this front of the war, with perhaps main dispute being over the level of premeditation by Iran. But we should not let the other participants off any more than an accounting of the Holocaust should overlook the involvement of say Vichy, the Ustasha, the Arrow Cross, and so on, or those of the Cold War should ignore the Khmer Rouge, North Korea, Castro’s Cuba, and so on.
Unless this is confronted and the ideologies behind this and the groups championing them be identified and destroyed, this will be kicking the can further. That doesn’t mean it should not be done, just that it will not be sufficient.
I didn’t figure Hamas would quit. With their position and their goals, half a dozen guys with rifles can do some damage and there’s no way to shut down such ad hoc activities. Not to mention Hamas’ goals remain what they were. So there will be more than such ad hoc attacks.
I figured the plan was to peel off any semblance of support, moral or otherwise, from Hamas. Leave them alone on the world stage. Which would ease Israel’s position with–some–observers as to who is the bad guy here.
“Look what they could have. Practically anything they want. Why not take it? ” Everything but the destruction of Israel, and that will be more obvious.
It’s great that the hostages are home. Was the cost too high? How many killers did Israel set free? How many will they kill in the future?
Mattsky:
I addressed those issues in this recent post.
Mattsky
A hostage has a name. A face. A family.
The soldiers who will die for what was given up have none of those yet. And will be part of thesethingshappen.
My take on this deal is that Trump built a coalition of nations in the region to isolate Hamas and impose conditions on them. Hamas and Gazans are not partners in peace but they depend on outside support including the Arab nations and Turkey. Iran has lost much influence in large part due to Israeli military power.
If Trump is able to limit material support for Hamas the fact that Hamas doesn’t want peace can be managed. Terror and fighting won’t end but if events go against Hamas every time they act out progress can be made.
I figured the plan was to peel off any semblance of support, moral or otherwise, from Hamas. Leave them alone on the world stage.
I doubt such can truly work in the West, because of the left. But material support can be shut off.
Trump’s method is to control the media with a steady stream of headlines and announcements. I think he was dismayed to find out just how hamstrung Bibi is by the hard-core Israeli Left, who still control many levers of power in a country that is very much still a democracy in gestation.
I think Trump was counting on Bibi clearing out Hamas in the wake of the attack on Iran, when questions and objections would be swept aside. It felt like the Trump-Bibi team missed a beat at that point, and have not yet recovered.
Here in Israel:
We don’t have a Constitution, but a patchwork of socialist-era institutions still funded by the kind of corrupt log-rolling that Musk’s DOGE uncovered.
A majority of the population still has not yet been radicalized enough to disbelieve the media or disobey the Establishment – they still feel constrained to conform to what “everybody” knows…. this is changing, but the Leftist Big Brother still wields cultural authority waaaay beyond their electoral performance.
I think the Trump administration just assumed that, because Bibi is charismatic, he could lead the media cycle and deliver headlines like Trump.
But the same crazy Lefties who used their media position to politicize the hostages and make them a central, divisive issue of the war – while deflecting attention from the failure of Osla and its feckless generals – are just waiting to politicize the “genocide” of Hamas and turn it into another Sabra/Shatila – an artificial Vietnam-type “failure” created by hostile media.
It seems to me like DJT and Bibi are now regrouping… this does not seem like a planned waiting period in an overarching strategy. I hope I’m wrong…. maybe they have a plan. Maybe they are running down the clock to thin out the population in Gaza (there are steady streams of refugees slipping into Egypt and other havens).