The living hostages are back. But what’s next?
That’s the big question. You’ll read a variety of answers, from optimistic to pessimistic, from “Hamas has surrendered” to “Israel has lost the war” and everything in between.
Hear are my thoughts on the matter.
It’s often said that there should be no prisoner exchanges for the hostages, and that as soon as a hostage is taken Israel should consider he or she to be as good as dead. That makes a certain logical sense, a la Peter Singer (please see the three post series I’ve written about his philosophy). But it ignores other extremely important human characteristics that mean it’s not only unlikely to happen but it wouldn’t necessarily lead to better results.
The reality is that the terrorists know that taking hostages serves many functions whether or not prisoner exchanges ever occur. Palestinians have been taught from childhood to viciously hate Jews and Israelis, so seeing them suffer satisfies a sadistic need. It torments the hostages, their families, Israelis, Israeli leaders, and Jews around the world as well as anyone who might sympathize with and support them. Hamas or any other terror organization can release video after video, drawing out the suffering.
Plus, Israel has been doing these exchanges for a long time, and the terrorists have reason to believe they will do it again. Stopping now doesn’t change that equation much because the terrorists are well aware of the pressure Israelis put on their government to do these exchanges. Israel is a tiny country and everyone knows everyone or at least someone close to any other Israeli. It is in many respects a family.
In addition, I’m not so sure there’s anything unique about these particular murderers and terrorists who are being released by Israel. Palestinian society raises people to be like this, and rewards them. If they were all killed today (and Israel may have plans to kill many of them over the next year or so), others would rise up. The problem is deeper than these people – much deeper. And any more permanent solution will have to be more comprehensive.
That’s what the larger Plan is all about. You can hear people saying it’s a trap and now Israel has snatched defeat from victory, and you can hear people say it has great promise. I submit that no one knows at this point and so I think that sort of talk is a waste of time. As events play out it will become more clear. Will that take a month, a year, two years, or a decade? I certainly don’t know that, either. But let’s give it a chance. Do we have any choice?
Trump is a hero today, especially in Israel. You can read about that here. He seems to think the war is over, or at least he thinks it’s a good idea right now to accentuate the positive. But he’s a practical man, and knows that it may be necessary to resume military operations at any time.
Israel knows it, too. But today’s a day to celebrate.
NOTE: In the article I just linked, it mentions that Trump ad-libbed that Netanyahu should be pardoned:
“I have an idea, why don’t you give Netanyahu a pardon?” Trump said, in comments directed at Herzog. He added, in a reference to the gifts Netanyahu allegedly received, “Who cares about cigars and champagne?”
Why does it say “ISRAEL AT WAR – DAY 739” in a red banner at the top of the page at Times of Israel? I went to the home page and it is still there, just moved to left side. Also wouldn’t this be day 738?
Edit: I just realized it is after midnight there so October 14th which is 739.
I read the article and presume this may be why: “first phase of Trump’s broader Gaza peace plan”
“What is next?” might be thought to convey *What are next?”, being as a manifold variety of needs and preferences stand before us, albeit “we” aren’t the actors responding and choosing as the particular case may be.
First among others, all the deceased hostages are to be returned, and among these 28 persons only four have been turned over today. The remaining 24 are said to be missing unaccounted for.
The “Plan” has provisions for this. Those procedures are getting underway, together with many other managerial/tactical aspects of said “Plan”. By these means yet other aspects of the vision Trump touts will begin to be implemented, I take it. Choices made, preferences determined, actions taken.
While I don’t imagine Hamas and its Hezbollah, Houthi, Iranian ilk will forget their plans to wipe out the Jews, they just paid a very steep price that they will not forget either. It will take them many years to rebuild.
What we have seen since the original October 7 is near-miraculous.
Does that mean that Israel and Jews now have reached a happy ending, forever after? Of course not.
We are at step one of a 20-point plan. So, the way ahead is full of minefields and unknown obstacles – mostly because of the Islamists and their fanaticism.
I get the feeling that the nations that showed up at the peace summit are very tired of putting up with the likes of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran. It’s possible both money and military threats can keep them on track toward real peace. Or not.
Anyway, it worth giving it a chance. Who knows? Trump, Witkoff, and Kushner have pulled rabbits out of hats to get things this far. Let’s keep believing and working toward peace. What have we got to lose?
Well, had we taken Ann Coulter’s recommendation a generation ago after 9/11 to kill their leaders and convert the rest to Christianity (assuming a version of Christianity that is not, in turn, “kill all the Jews”), I might have some optimism.
If orthodox Israelis were going to take over their school system, there might be some optimism for a generation from now. And to be clear: I am glad the Israelis are getting who is left of the hostages back.
But the Israelis are going to continue to double down on stupid, and once again not actually win the war, due to guilt with a side of relish. Issac and Ishmael aren’t gonna ever be reconciled voluntarily, and the culture of the West at the moment is just incapable of speaking clear truth about militant Islam and the barbarism inherent within it, which means Islam’s adherents aren’t going to confront and reform it, willingly.
The USA doesn’t have the heart to take out the moneymasters, though Trump has done a bit more than prior administrations, and at least hasn’t sent pallets of cash to Iran, which is nice.
I’ve been to mosques for candidate forums. You can’t reason with most of them on these issues. (I particularly remember being screamed at after one forum by a circle of men insisting that I was wrong to use the phrase, “Islamofascism” on Facebook to describe the ongoing war in Iraq/Afghanistan. Okay. “What term do you want to use for people making war on behalf of Islam?” “We are not speaking of making war.” “But they are, in the name of Islam, and have been very clear about their conquest goals. So what term do you propose to use to call them?” “You cannot say that these people are speaking on behalf of all of Islam.” “Fine. They aren’t acting on behalf of ALL Islam. But we still need a term for what they are doing, under the auspices of Islam. Islamic jihadists? Islamic warriors? Muslim terrorists?” “They are not true Islam.” “But it is true that they are killing in the name of Islam. So what do you call that?” Rage scream in response. They literally would not provide a term that I, an “infidel,” could use to describe anything about Islam that might be construed as bad, because nothing about Islam can be treated badly, or considered badly.
Another one after another forum yammered on and on about how terrible it was that I dared reference an article written by Pamela Gellar. “But were the facts she stated in the article true?” “We do not like her, she hates Islam,” etc. “But it is true that Islamists crucified eight people who contest ISL’s rule in Syria”? “It came from Pamela Gellar.”
Another woman took the opportunity to berate me for my Islamophobia, which embarrassed the (Arabic) host, who was dismayed at the violation of guest rule courtesy and just wanted me to explain ways to lower property taxes. Didn’t get that group’s endorsement, but them publicly making a big deal out of the reasons for their non-endorsement on social media got a local Indian community group to endorse me–though most were D’s, the leader had a brother in the army in Kashmir.
Or just look at what I call the logical flexibility about October 7 itself. The Palestinian arguments seem to be, “we didn’t do it, what you saw/heard was a lie, they deserved it, and it was all their fault, it was a Mossad inside job.”
Sigh.
The only thing Islam has understood over the last several hundred years is deterrent force. Maybe Trump will be disruptive enough to keep things quiet for a couple years. Let’s hope. I don’t see JD or Marco having the same credibility as a Wallfacer though…(sorry to anyone who hasn’t read the 3 body problem series).
Think of it sorta like a self-licking ice cream cone and we’re most of the way there. Save for the very real bullets and bombs part.
Mike Doran: “Nothing to see here. Move along.”
https://x.com/Doranimated/status/1977855710315634991
Just Arabs being executed by Hamas in the street
Arab Muslim society is very tribal. With the IDF withdrawn from some areas, the clan wars resume.
I am curious to see what the Palestinian Authority does. They aren’t friends of Hamas.
I get the impression that Trump negotiated well to the doubts many Arab leaders have about the Hamas campaign against Israel.
Sure, they don’t like Jews and wouldn’t mind the end of Israel, but if it could have been done, by now it would have been done.
Peter Zeihan (remember him?) says that the younger Arab leaders don’t really care about the Palestinian cause and would rather move on.
I suspect Trump put a lot of cherries on top for Arab leaders.
sdferr on October 13, 2025 at 6:48 pm:
“Just Arabs being executed by Hamas in the street”
I am surprised that the “X” terms and conditions would allow such an execution to be web cast.
Maybe if it leads to some remaining groups taking out Hamas?? We shall see – maybe, even when we should not.
Kate on October 13, 2025 at 7:20 pm:
“Arab Muslim society is very tribal. With the IDF withdrawn from some areas, the clan wars resume.”
Yes, it is a reminder of how the European Dark Age or Middle Age Church managed to implement rules against cousin marriage that reduced the influence of the Germanic tribal and clan social structure. While it was probably done mostly to gain access to the wealth of religiously oriented widows (willing her husband’s property to the church instead of to her son or brother or nephew or brother in law or uncle), it seems to have been instrumental in widening the circles of trust across tribes and society in general, leading to kingdoms and nations as we now understand them.
Even though I have read (and I believe you have commented) that in many Muslim societies today, their is a significant decline in belief in Islam, but the non-believers still keep a low profile. But if they don’t moderate their laws about marriage I suspect their clan/tribal nature will continue to hold them back, and continue to cause problems for the West.
huxley on October 13, 2025 at 11:04 pm:
“I suspect Trump put a lot of cherries on top for Arab leaders.”
I certainly hope and want to believe that Trump is fully aware (as much as anyone can be) of the potential for things going awry. But if his pressures and arm twisting does lead to a significant reduction in any funding for Hamas (or other terrorist groups) from either these same leaders in side deals, or the leaders to a better job of controlling contributions to Hamas from their fellow wealthy citizens, then maybe they will “starve” the terrorists of resources.
I remain more on the pessimistic side than the positive one (in part because terrorists don’t really need all that much to cause real trouble).
What’s next? We won’t have long to wait for the answer.
Surprise, surprise; NYC mayoral candidate, and its next mayor, Mamdani, has condemned the release of the Israeli hostages and the overall peace agreement.
This should persuade more NYC voters to support Mamdani.
What’s next is what we’re starting to see, Hamas killing non-Hamas rivals, so as to remain able to dominate the Gazans under their rule.
Crappy semi-dictatorship, with the most ruthless among the rivals with weapons likely to murder their way to power.
The big question is how will Israel administer the occupied parts of Gaza? This remains the key issue Bibi hasn’t found an answer to, and Trump providing support doesn’t answer the Q.