Home » Open thread 10/3/2025

Comments

Open thread 10/3/2025 — 25 Comments

  1. Awwww, sweet moments … !
    And kudos to kind people who help parents survive an oft stressful period, stuck in a crowded can!

  2. I always make funny faces at kids in strollers or shopping carts at the store.
    Makes them smile or laugh.

    Until one toddler started screaming his head off ’cause It scared him. Don’t do that anymore.

  3. What was “3 to 4 days” for Hamas to accept or reject Trump’s Gaza war ending plan has now been lengthened to a fixed time of 6:00 pm Eastern US time Sunday Oct. 5th. So 5 plus a bit days in total. Still no announcement from Hamas at this hour.

  4. @sdferr:Still no announcement from Hamas at this hour.

    Any reason why they would? Fighting to the last Gazan bothers them not at all, especially since Trump gave Qatar a security guarantee against Israel.

    I’m not sure there’s anyone in Gaza to negotiate with, and Hamas has little incentive to negotiate.

    Maybe this is about Israel’s electorate, trying to reduce opposition to further war a little bit by bending over backward to give Hamas another chance to be reasonable, I don’t know, since I don’t know how much reliable information there is on Israeli opposition to the war in Gaza.

  5. Can’t imagine why Hamas would surrender? Why, they’ve done a heap of it already. So, no reason why they won’t in future.

    Over the course of the war we have seen round about a dozen instances (up to 20) of Hamas fighters surrendering en masse, groups of over ten, often numbering 30, 50, 70, 150 all at once, processed in the streets of Gaza by IDF troops in full view of cameras and published by newspapers, tv outlets, internet media and various other sources. The Israelis are thought to have a couple thousand fighters in prison.

    So. Is that impossible? Didn’t happen? Or. So much for any notion of fighting to the last Gazan, eh wot? Now that isn’t to say some remote Hamas douchebag in Qatar refuses to surrender, since sure, that may happen. Too, his reward may prove to be expulsion from Qatar, we don’t know (it’s probable though as a condition of Trump’s pledge to defend Qatar).

    Yet in Gaza itself? Could be the nominal leader of Hamas will refuse to sign on. And could be too his presumptive followers refuse his refusal and give up themselves, their Israeli captives, their weapons, their intelligence holdings, etc. No one knows how that will go.

    We do know this though: the war proceeds apace right now. Israeli units are taking ground in Gaza city (over half of it already), killing opposition, facilitating removal of civilians (over 3/4 are already out), and are content to continue until Hamas is ground to powder. Hamasians can figure this out too. Die or go out of business elsewhere.

    And as the mere fact stated before goes, they haven’t declared. So we wait.

  6. @sdferr:So. Is that impossible? Didn’t happen? Or. So much for any notion of fighting to the last Gazan, eh wot? Now that isn’t to say some remote Hamas douchebag in Qatar refuses to surrender, since sure, that may happen.

    I think you’ve misunderstood me. The “remote douchebags” in Qatar are the leadership. I don’t think they will surrender. I don’t doubt that low-level fighters do surrender sometimes, and I don’t doubt there are plenty more low-level fighters to be had as long as the leadership in Qatar is not touched.

  7. So some are in Qatar, indeed. They aren’t the sole leadership though. Nevertheless we don’t know how those in Qatar will answer, nor those in Gaza.

    It’s ok to assume what you like though. My own guess is they will “yes — but blah blah blah”, which I further believe won’t suffice, won’t work, won’t extract their marbles from the vise. Turn over all the hostages and deceased bodies but keep their weapons? Nope. It’s down to all or die for those in Gaza.

    Suppose (hypothetically!) the creeps in Qatar say “No” and yet every hostage is returned in Gaza and every fighter surrenders in Gaza and every weapon is given up, every tunnel exposed and abandoned to the IDF, every fighting position mapped out and the maps handed over and every commander in Gaza mutinied and handed over, what does that make of the Qatar creep’s “No”? A big fat diddly-squat. It’s a silly supposition to be sure, but some portion of that may take place anyhow. Which, hey!, progress from the IDF’s point of view.

  8. @sdferr:Suppose (hypothetically!) the creeps in Qatar say “No” and yet every hostage is returned in Gaza and every fighter surrenders in Gaza and every weapon is given up, every tunnel exposed and abandoned to the IDF, every fighting position mapped out and the maps handed over and every commander in Gaza mutinied and handed over, what does that make of the Qatar creep’s “No”?

    A bit like every German in Germany surrendering but Hitler and some of the leadership carrying on from Argentina, I guess. Or like Assad fleeing to Russia. Such things happen. I guess it feels different with Hamas because they already operate that way to some extent and have a lot of experience with it. I think they’d cause a lot more trouble, like they used to before they took over Gaza, like the PLO used to before they took over the West Bank.

  9. 3I/Atlas

    I’ve been trying to find the latest information on 3I/Atlas, and actual, detailed information which actually informs has been pretty thin on the ground.

    Looking at Youtube, however, there has been a ton of supposed “information” warning me that 3I/Atlas is going to be/has been hit by some other object, that the object may have changed it’s trajectory, and might even crash into Mars, or to go into orbit around it, that the James Webb telescope had detected movement inside 3I/Atlas, that NASA and other government and military sources of supposedly definitive and scientific news have gone dark as this object moves closer to Mars, and can be more closely observed by the few instruments we have orbiting that planet, etc., etc.

    It is certainly a colorful shitload of what appears to be just speculation masquerading as fact.

    What is true–and is worrying–is that, soon, the trajectory of 3I/Atlas will place it opposite the Earth, and the Sun will block any observation of it.

    As many have pointed out, the trajectory of 3I/Atlas—aligning as it does with the orbital plane of the planets in our Solar System–is a very unlikely one, and if, if, 3I/Atlas were to be an Alien, technological object, it being on the other side of our Sun when we can’t observe it, would be the ideal time to make any course changes it might want to make, and be unobserved by us humans here on Earth.

    In any case, the advent of 3I/Atlas points out the urgent need for much more widespread and robust surveillance capabilities covering out to the edge of our entire Solar System, and for serious, powerful, and capable Planetary Defense.

    The Dinosaurs were not able to stop their “extinction level event” but, hopefully, if one were aimed at us–if we try–we have the possibility to stop it.

  10. Unless someone mentioned it before-

    The “hero” of some Democrats, Kilmar Abrego Garcia, will be deported, a US judge says.
    [Although Mr. Garcia can appeal it.]

    My guess is- the judge didn’t want this member of the violent…MS-13 gang, + human trafficker…also known as man who makes people into enslaved people…aka slaves, to stay in the United States.

    That sounds like the right decision.

    Here’s a link to the story:

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/amy-curtis/2025/10/02/kilmar-abrego-garcia-will-be-deported-n2664357

  11. Yashar Ali [first I’ve seen this — sdferr]:

    Hamas has released a new statement on the negotiations:

    “…..Within this framework, and in order to achieve an end to the war and a complete withdrawal from the Strip, the movement declares its approval to release all occupation prisoners — both living and remains — according to the exchange formula included in President Trump’s proposal, provided that conditions on the ground are secured for the exchange process.

    In this context, the movement affirms its readiness to immediately enter, through the mediators, into negotiations to discuss the details.

    The movement also renews its approval to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats) based on Palestinian national consensus and backed by Arab and Islamic support…..”

    https://x.com/yashar/status/1974200161237860615

    Kinda looks like a sketchy “Yes, but”. Now I’ll go chasing after the source of this fragmentary report.

  12. So JPost cites Al-Jazeera: https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-869351

    It’s “blah blah blah”:

    The terror organization added that regarding the “other issues included in President Trump’s proposal concerning the future of the Gaza Strip and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, these are linked to a comprehensive national position and to relevant international laws and resolutions.”
    Hamas said that these will be discussed in a “unified Palestinian national framework in which Hamas will participate and contribute responsibly.”

    Or more bluntly: “No”.

    Expanded — “We won’t surrender our arms and persons; we will drag everything out with endless piles of Bullshit.”

    To which, y’know: tick tock, time’s a wastin’ until 6:00pm Sunday. Meanwhile the IDF oughta step up the killing in Gaza city.

  13. Years and years ago, I was on a crowded bus in rural South Korea, with families, piles of luggage, chickens, people crammed in everywhere they could fit, as the bus veered around curves that seemed too steep to survive. In the seat just in front of me was a baby, looking over his mother’s shoulder between the seats, fixing me with his calm dark eyes. He gazed at me, inquiring, skeptical, steady, demanding, without letting up, as we climbed moutainsides, descended into valleys, skirted bays. I tried smiling at him, making faces, seeing if I could make him smile. Once in a while he’d allow a little smile, but then he’d go back to just gazing. His eyes asked questions I couldn’t answer, and they did not let go of mine. He’s out there somewhere now, I hope, aged maybe 50, with no idea that his gaze once burned holes in a person’s soul.

  14. During the Pandemic I picked up the unfortunate habit of watching a lot of different things on Youtube, one of them those cop videos, where they arrest speeders, shoplifters, and various other miscreants, sometimes up to and including murderers.

    Watching these many arrests I’ve noticed a pattern, and that is, when the cop first puts his hands on the perp–usually a woman—the first thing she cries—a la George Floyd—is that she “can’t breathe” (this, of course, contradicted by the fact of her continuously screaming, mouthing off at the cops, and yelling “what did I do,”claiming, “I didn’t do nuthing”).

    Next, comes the claim that they’re “pregnant,” and, therefore, deserve special, more gentle treatment.

    The new thing I’ve noticed recently, in the news, is male crooks claiming that they’re “trans,” that they actually are, or are becoming a women and, again, deserving of some special treatment (maybe even a spot in a jail for females.)

    Linked below is the report of the sentence given to the male Nicholas Roske (who now calls himself “Rosie,” along with the appropriate pronouns), the would be assassin who tried to kill Justice Kavanaugh, and how his lawyers and parents argued that because he was now claiming to be a woman, a “transgender,” and he was having a rough time of it, he thus deserved some special, more lenient sentence/treatment (the prosecutors argued for a sentence of 30 years, the perp was sentenced today to only 4).*

    * See https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/just-would-be-kavanaugh-assassin-sentenced-eight-years/

  15. Correction—Rosky was actually sentenced to 97 months, but could possibly be released after having only served four years.

  16. His eyes asked questions I couldn’t answer, and they did not let go of mine. He’s out there somewhere now, I hope, aged maybe 50, with no idea that his gaze once burned holes in a person’s soul.

    Mrs Whatsit:

    Lovely!

    Something happens when a baby looks into your eyes and you look back.

  17. Snow on Pine on 3I/Atlas.

    Geophysicist Stefan Burns, at YT, is an interesting source for authoritative coverage of this unique solar system interloper. He stays up on the newest observational research, too.

    Here’s the last of his videos I’ve watched. He’s very expert. https://youtu.be/TxNjy_jvkml?

  18. @ huxley > “Something happens when a baby looks into your eyes and you look back.”

    Not to be confused with looking into the abyss. 😉

    Really, though, the anecdote from Mrs Whatsit was an absolute gem, as if it came out of some deeply introspective memoir or fiction book.
    Makes me want to get some more of the story!

  19. “New post: my first posting experiment on Substack…”
    Thank you David, interesting post!
    ====
    Seems to me it would make more sense for Hamas to release the hostages first, but I’m not an Artist of Deals.

  20. @ David – thank you so much for the fascinating Substack post of your book review. What an amazing story that is, and so unexpected – I had not heard of the poem codes, although the one-time silk pads were familiar to me.
    I laughed about the emergency reproductive biology lecture.

    There are so many of these heart-warming, and heart-breaking, war stories that are still not known, and now never will be as the lives of the WWII generation come to a close.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

HTML tags allowed in your comment: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Web Analytics