Home » Open thread 10/2/2025

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Open thread 10/2/2025 — 20 Comments

  1. It is uncanny. I remember many many years ago, when Elvis was in Egypt, he compared his face to an ancient Egyptian.

    Another day of the Schumer Shutdown, another day of Dems crying over the illegals. What an ad that could make.

  2. Well, there’s going to be no Senate action today because several Jewish members will not be there; it’s Yom Kippur. It will be interesting to see if Trump and Vought follow through on some permanent layoffs today. Senate action, if any, would be no earlier than tomorrow afternoon or evening.

  3. So now I’m exepecting a Rasputin movie directed by Christopher Nolan staring Christian Bale in the eponymous role.

  4. Given the variability of human features, the odds that you look like a specific other person are very low.
    Given the number of humans who have been photographed, the odds that you look like at least one of them seem pretty good.

  5. The Schumer shutdown is starting to have good consequences

    “Trump administration cancels $8 billion for climate projects in latest shutdown cuts

    Washington — The Trump administration announced Wednesday that it would be canceling $8 billion in climate-related projects in 16 states, the latest funding cut by the administration after the federal government plunged into a shutdown overnight.

    Russ Vought, head of the Office of Management and Budget, announced the cancellations on social media and said additional details would be provided by the Department of Energy. All of the states affected by the cuts voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, and all are represented by Democrats in the Senate.”

    Heh.

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-climate-cuts-8-billion/

  6. Let me start by saying that I have no direct experience with AI bots, unlike many here. The idea of it makes me slightly nauseous, but I realize that I should probably get past that one of these days. But I certainly am curious about the broader ramifications of it, so I looked at TJ’s link to a Marc Andreesen interview above. I was kinda hoping for some deeper techno speak, but I don’t think it goes there based on a cursory skimming.

    I thought this was an interesting part: At 29:39 the host describes a fairly simple and bone headed error that his AI query generated in response. Andreesen’s response that yes, this is not our experience with computers of the past. According to Andreesen the old computers were “hyper literal,” “not creative,” and errors were caused by human programmers.

    I’m thinking… that’s why we called them machines!

    Now ask yourself if you really want AI driving your car around for you. I get the impression, perhaps incorrectly, that guys like Elon Musk are OK with you getting killed by your car, as long as the net auto fatalities declines with the advent of autonomous vehicles. Well no, it’s not OK with me.

  7. TommyJay is right that the Andreessen interview dosen’t get too deep. But who here hasn’t used a search engine AND gotten an AI prompt in the past year?

    I think this is the intended audience.

    As for mysrlf, one of the invedyment YTubers I followswears by fiscal.ai to easily produce custom charts on stocks. I think I’m going there soon to try it out.

  8. TJ:

    I have a friend who played his way through several hundred thousands of dollars daytrading with old school technical analysis. He lost his shirt.

    I tried to tell him that whatever he could do, machines could do better and faster. In fact I understand the machines lay traps for such day traders.

  9. A current illustration from the AI productivity frontier. Headlines say there has been a collapse in demand for coding (or computer programmers).

    Tony Heller was interviewed by Tom Nelson’s podcast last July. His claim to fame with AGW skeptics is in using archival records to reject the orthodox temperature records that exaggerate recent CO2 claims and cool earlier 20thC temp records.

    But his career work has been in the computer industry as a EE Master’s holder from Rice University — save, for example, the extensive software development work he did for NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) in Boulder, CO, to put their global warming models onto super computers, some 20 years ago.

    Tony has won quality control awards on microprocessor (or computer chips”) designing from Microsoft and Intel. Clearly, as a critic of AGW, he continues in the QC business.

    But his recent and current work involves AIs. Tom Nelson asks about how it’s changing his work flow and productivity, as a statistical data analyst for his boss.

    Tony tells us that despite “hallucinations”, it has revolutionized his work. His boss asks if he needs new programmers or coders. But Tony explains that new Comp Sci degreed recruits would require training in the tasks he needs performed. Go to 28m: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtF0Bcp76iw

    AI allows him to instruct statistical agents (ie, interactive computerized bots) and correct them over only several hours that would otherwise take a month of his time!

    The only new position filled by comp sci grad does…customer service because he can answer customer software questions! Otherwise, Heller says, high ed in computers is useless for business today.

    That’s dramatic impact.

    As Elon Musk and others say, earlier AI frontiers required Data Centers for training computerized models that imitate natural Large Language Models (or LLMs).

    While only 5% of Big Business uses Cloud Storage, and are therefore Data Center enabled, there is a long way to go for the market to expand. Nonetheless, the AI frontier has shifted to inferential logic processing. This means the LLMs are using more and more time doing computations. And only the highest and fastest in technical powers will reduce this problem solving time. Who needs that the most?

    Therefore, software for full-time automatic driving assist for Tesla vehicles is being released over the coming winter months. Musk recently states that the range of life-saving improvement over operator driving is expected to halve human fatalities. And that further reducing fatal accidents to one-tenth of present death-loss is on the horizon.

    Obviously, automatic driving is a three dimensional problem that can be solved with current AI technology. But what about four dimensional problem solving like the obstacle fraught airspace where automated drones for delivery and personal helicopters in urban areas roam? This is where compute inferential speed will come into play! Likewise, the battlefield where speed is always a strategic advantage.

    TommyJay (ABOCE) is skeptical about fully autonomous driving. But if Musks expectations are met, car rental insurance rates will drop because of their use. One imagines that 90-100% full-time driving in a rental will drop insurance costs enough to benefit the consumer.

    Another area to be affected over the next 2-3 years is this investor expectation. Automated Tesla’s and Waymo (Google) taxis will drive Uber out of business because it will be cheaper to run and safer to ride.

    Personally, I hate senescence – the loss of physical functions – part of aging the most. But if one lives long enough, it is inevitable not just for us, but for all life forms. The safety of automatic driving, whether by ownership or rental, is therefore a welcome prospect to benefit my aging future self. Life is better as a mobile human-being, after all.

    Now, will autonomous driving replace the EMT and ambulances? The frontiers of high tech change keep moving!

  10. Color me contrary but other than their eye color, I don’t see that much of a similarity between those two women. To my eyes, the resemblance is not striking, which is necessary for an ‘exact’ resemblance.

    As for “Celebs Who looks alike exactly like people from history”

    The displayed lack of grammar is all too typical of our failed educational system. I suspect it’s a reflection of a dysfunctional thought process. It took me, a mediocre high school student in English, (then lack of interest) a moment to puzzle out that they meant (perhaps) to write, “Celebs who look exactly like people from history”.

  11. huxley, the business about AI making day trading hazardous bothers me. Could that mean that the everyday retail investor will essentially be shut out of the markets, as a practical matter? Will the stock market just become machines talking to or at each other?

  12. Could that mean that the everyday retail investor will essentially be shut out of the markets, as a practical matter? Will the stock market just become machines talking to or at each other?

    Philip Sells:

    Other than playing index markets long or trading on insider information, so it seems to me.

    In the mid-2000s I took a Stanford CS course from Prof. David Cheriton who had made a bundle advising the Google guys. He was telling us to learn low-level C to get jobs playing off the microsecond delays in propagating trades over the wire.

    It’s gotten worse.

  13. General MacArthur and Bruce Willis was pretty close in appearance, but the chin’s are not a close match. Still, some casting director missed a good opportunity for a really close matchup on the big screen.
    Zora Neale and Queen Latifa is still an open opportunity?
    Einstein vs. Labouef – chin and facial structure are off.

    Even when chin, face, mouth, nose, and eyes are close, often aided by similar hair styles in the comparison views, the ears would not match at all.

    Huxley and Philip Sells: are you suggesting that even long term savers and investors will not be able to realize meaningful gains by betting on the general economy of a free society (or “free” society) to realize improvements and thereby increase their net wealth? Some time ago Megan McArdle said that economic growth was the only real source for retirement savings, no matter what form of private or public payouts it took.

  14. Let’s hope them AI “critters” don’t “develop” a perverse sense of humor.

    (We know they aren’t always “trustworthy”: they DO “hallucinate” and apparently they’ve already not only successfully recommended suicide but also shown instances of “jealousy”…which makes one wonder if emotions, and/or addictive behavior/psychoses, can be—slyly?—“programmed” into said critters….)

    File under: Dial AI for Murder…?

  15. @ R2L > “Still, some casting director missed a good opportunity for a really close matchup on the big screen.”

    That was my thought about several of the “matches” – a little make-up and voila!
    On the other hand, why bother, when either the celebrity, the historical person (some of them not even named), or both were relative non-entities.

    Tangential questions:
    How many people have to be able to recognize a picture for the person to be called “a celebrity”?
    Do GenZers recognize “our” celebrities?
    Probably more than we do theirs, but do they care?

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