Israel (and Trump) send a message to the Iranian people
Israel bombed some interesting targets today:
Israeli fighter jets on Sunday night struck the administrative compound of Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison, media reports suggest.
“Footage from the attack shows one strike hitting the entrance gate to the prison,” The Jerusalem Post reported Monday. “The strike was deliberately targeted at the entrance gate so as to avoid hitting the inmate housing,” the newspaper reported, citing Iranian sources.
Evin Prison, which detains opponents of the regime and kidnapped foreigners, is infamous for rape and torture of inmates by the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) thugs that runs the facility and answer only to Iran’s tyrant Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
There are undoubtedly more political prisoners in Evin Prison than there were in the Bastille. Perhaps the attack was more than symbolic, but it was symbolic at the very least.
Plus:
Other regime targets struck by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) include the headquarters of IRGC-affiliated Basij militia and the so-called “Destruction of Israel” clock in the heart of Tehran. …
The Tehran’s landmark digital clock was counting down to the destruction of Israel in the year 2040, a reference to the prophecy made by Khamenei, the dictator of Iran and the ‘spiritual leader’ of Shia Muslims across the world.
The clock was erected in 2017.
Israel wasn’t finished. These targets were also hit:
“A short while ago, the Israeli Air Force fighter jets, guided by precise intelligence from the IDF Intelligence Directorate, struck command centers and assets belonging to the Internal Security Forces and the IRGC in Tehran, Iran,” the IDF said in a statement Monday. “These forces consist of various corps and command centers, and are responsible, on behalf of the Iranian regime’s military, for defending the homeland security, suppressing threats, and maintaining the regime’s stability.”
The strikes also targeted the regime’s most loyal Basij militia. The 600,000-men strong Shia-jihadist militia within the IRGC is often used by the regime to terrorize the population and crush street protests.
Again, that is very clearly directed in a way that should hearten the opposition groups in Iran.
And Trump added this message for the Iranian people:
It’s not politically correct to use the term, “Regime Change,” but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change??? MIGA!!!
And no, that doesn’t mean that the US is going to act directly to change the regime – although Israel might get a tad more aggressive on that.
None of this means the Iranian people have the will or the power to act, or in what way they might act. And of course the final result would be unknown – as is true of all shakeups and revolts. But to those who say “something worse than the present regime could come to rule Iran,” I’m trying to imagine what that might be. Worse than a leading state sponsor of terrorism around the world? Worse than an entity that believes it has the deity-driven dictate to destroy Israel, the US, and the West? I’m having trouble picturing just what that would be. Maybe the same goals, but more competent? And yet actually, helped along by the Obama and Biden administrations, the mullahs were seeming pretty competent until last summer, when Israel decided that they’d had enough of Iranian proxy Hezbollah. The rest is history – so far.
That’s my feeling as well. I can’t imagine a definitively “worse” option that seems at all likely to occur. Mind you that doesn’t mean such an outcome absolutely couldn’t occur, it just doesn’t seem very probable to me. I’m also not expecting some hypothetically ideal outcome either, with a truly open Democracy replete with western values on human rights and all that. The Islamic fundamentalist mindset just seems to be too well entrenched in that culture for such an outcome to be likely.
But all in all it just seems like the removal of the current extreme theocratic autocracy would be nothing but a good thing for the rest of the world.
Hashemi Rafsanjani, remember him? He was supposed to be a moderate. He clearly implied that absorbing a nuclear attack may be worth it to destroy Israel.
“If one day,” he said, “the world of Islam comes to possess the weapons currently in Israel’s possession [meaning nuclear weapons] – on that day this method of global arrogance would come to a dead end. This, he said, is because the use of a nuclear bomb in Israel will leave nothing on the ground, whereas it will only damage the world of Islam.”
So, yes, kind of hard to imagine worse than that.
I don’t want to get in the habit of parroting things I’ve heard on Fox News here, but this was rather unique, I thought. Van Jones on CNN’s broadcasts, warning progressives about the dangers of Iran.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/guNMdeKFciM
Iran has proxies who go around raping people?? Who knew? (Facetious and sarcastic)
I did recall the gist of this statement, by Rafsanjani, he was the lead Iranian ‘moderate’ back in Iran Contra, one recalls,
I’m having trouble picturing just what that would be.
There’s any number of things that COULD be done, that the current government of Iran is NOT doing. Things that Hamas or ISIS would do.
For example, those 9000 or so Jews who still live in Iran could be made hostages, in the same way that Hamas has done. Or worse than made hostages, as on October 7.
So, yes, I think a new government of Iran could easily be worse, even if it were no worse than Hamas or ISIS.
I don’t think that possibility is a reason not to do what we’re doing with this one. But it is a possibility that the people who make decisions have to grapple with, or they are irresponsible.
Perhaps it’s my naturally sunny disposition, but I don’t see the current Iranian government lasting more than a year.
Make Iran Great Again!
Niketas:
The current government of Iran would not hesitate for a moment to torture and/or kill every Jew in Iran if they thought it would help the regime. They calculate, however, that keeping them around as propaganda pets is more valuable. That’s all.
So a regime that took those Jews hostage (which, in a sense, they already are) or killed them would just be making different calculations as to what would benefit the regime. Which would mean they are more stupid than the current regime, because could you imagine Israel’s retaliation?
This has been awkward for me personally. On the one hand I have my own views on the conflict. On the other hand for eighteen years my ministry was with students and scholars from other nations. During the last few years we served there we had several from Iran, I consider them friends, keep in touch with a few, I’ve also learned to speak a little Farsi. I am deeply concerned about what will happen to my Iranian friends in the United States. Some have graduated, gotten jobs, started families.
I had a dream yesterday morning in which we visited our friends from Iran, brought them clothes and food (?!?), and I started crying.
Rick67:
“What will happen to my Iranian friends in the USA?”
Wait for it …… nothing.
Unless your friends decide to do stupid sh*t that is illegal.
I would hope you have normal people for friends.
You can pray that they are wise.
@neo:The current government of Iran would not hesitate for a moment to torture and/or kill every Jew in Iran if they thought it would help the regime.
You may be very well be right. But you were saying, probably rhetorically,
But to those who say “something worse than the present regime could come to rule Iran,” I’m trying to imagine what that might be.
And I suggested that something like Hamas or ISIS would be worse. It’s possible you think that the government of Iran is already at maximum evil and nothing further remains to be worse than them. But I suspect there’s depths yet to plumb and that it’s possible there is someone waiting for their opportunity to do so.
Rick67:
All of the Iranians I know here are against the current Iranian government and fled from it. Nothing will happen to them except they might be anxious for friends and family in Tehran, while the bombing is actively happening. But civilians there are not being targeted.
So I don’t know what you’re talking about. Even those Iranians in the US who are part of the current Iranian government might merely be deported. I don’t know that there are many of those, anyway.
Niketas:
But surely you know that Hamas is under the wing of Iran and that Iran helped train Hamas for October 7. So there is no difference.
Rick67
I am deeply concerned about what will happen to my Iranian friends in the United States. Some have graduated, gotten jobs, started families.
Here is an example from the UK of why those of Iranian origin could be concerned.
Iran accused of abducting journalist’s family over Israel war coverage
Is this what you meant?
I have read that during the Biden administration, several thousand Iranians slipped through our then-nonexistent border controls. It is quite possible, and even probable, that some of those free and footloose undocumented Iranians are agents of the Mullah’s government tasked to take out certain Iranian opponents of the regime who are living in the US.
What neo said at 4:33pm. The current Iranian regime has been murdering Jews all over the world for decades.
Because I suddenly got concerned that “MIGA” might mean something unfortunate, in Farsi, I tried “miga” in Persian on Bing Translate (Farsi was not an available choice), which came back with “it is said”.
@FOAF: The current Iranian regime has been murdering Jews all over the world for decades.
No one here said they weren’t. No one said the government of Iran isn’t pretty bad. I was saying, however, that there are worse things possible than the current government of Iran. Okay, if you want to say Iran is as bad as Hamas I wouldn’t argue it; then one of my examples, ISIS, is I think still worse. And of course there’s been worse in history.
It’s only to say that if you want “regime change” in Iran, and you aren’t willing to occupy Iran and try to ensure a specific regime–which the track record there is not so good–then responsible decision-makers do need to consider the likelihood that whatever might plausibly replace the mullahs is worse, in what way they are worse and worse for whom, and plan for the eventuality.
Doesn’t mean they need to let Iran off the hook, just means people need to think.
My view on regime change and what comes next is…
Cross that bridge when you come to it.
Something wicked arises, kill it too.
Better worry about the devil that doesn’t have you by the throat because the devil that does may not be as bad?
Better to be butchered by the lesser present evil than the worse one of your fears.
That is how the present devil grows stronger.
Timidity.
@ Neo > “So a regime that took those Jews hostage (which, in a sense, they already are) or killed them would just be making different calculations as to what would benefit the regime. Which would mean they are more stupid than the current regime, because could you imagine Israel’s retaliation?”
Considering what the Israelis have done in retaliation for 10/7, as part of which the destruction of Iran was clearly another item on their bucket list, I don’t know what would be left for them to destroy, short of using their own nukes to make Iran a sea of glass.
It looks to me like the Israeli plans for rolling up Hezbollah and Iran have been on the shelf for years, waiting for some non-negotiable provocation. The atrocities of 10/7 were finally enough to take them down and dust them off. The election of Trump 47 made the nuke busting simpler (compared to what the IDF would have to do), but they were going to go after as much as they could get without it.
Good points from Ace about Iran’s sort-of-attack and regime change.
https://ace.mu.nu/archives/415359.php
neo wrote: “Nothing will happen to them except they might be anxious for friends and family in Tehran, while the bombing is actively happening.”
Thanks for the reply. Quick response:
Most if not all of my Iranian friends came here as students or visiting scholars. As far as I know they didn’t leave as dissidents. I managed to avoid discussing politics around them and don’t know their views.
My concern is if the federal government said “hey our countries are at war and you need to leave” and what would happen to them after returning to Iran. You are surely correct their primary concern right now is for family back home. And a degree of anger because we obliterated a facility near their home city.
I think om (who wrote “Wait for it …… nothing”) is probably correct. As long as they don’t do anything stupid they’ll be fine. I’ve heard absolutely nothing about expelling citizens of Iran. Our intelligence services are probably keeping an eye on them.
I also note Gringo’s comment. Another reason they would be concerned about family back home.
I still possess a sunny disposition. The current Iran regime will be overthrown and will not be replaced by a theocracy.
Regime change is hard, the IRGC is till powerful, and no unified opposition has emerged.
But the collapse of the mullahs’ credibility since Oct 7 is so epic that I would argue that ordinary rules don’t apply.
it’s hard to tell when the breaking point will be reached, but there does seem to be a limit to a citizenry’s patience. No one invaded the USSR nor even bombed it, when the Soviet Union collapsed.
@huxley:The current Iran regime will be overthrown and will not be replaced by a theocracy.
Assad was overthrown and replaced by a union of militants including offshoots of Al Qaeda. Lots of things could happen in Iran. Not a reason not to hope for or attempt regime change, but a reason to have plans in place for potentially a worse outcome.
Some kinds of “worse outcome” might be much worse for Iran but better for everyone else: like a kleptocratic dictatorship that disavows nuclear weapons and terrorism and normalizes relations with Israel and the US but is much more oppressive to the citizens. In that case, what’s the right thing to do? Not always easy answers.
No one invaded the USSR nor even bombed it, when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Primarily that was the regime losing its ability to repress, in my opinion: they couldn’t hang on to the Baltics and the satellites and so everyone could see they were weaker than they had been. Not so much that the citizens of the satellites and constituent republics finally got fed up. They’d always been tired of it, and had always been ruthlessly suppressed when they tried to do anything about it. After 1988 the thugs in those areas saw Moscow wasn’t riding to their rescue anymore, and found some other line of work to be in.
The current Iranian regime is peculiarly ambitious and revanchist. There is no worse on these dimensions. It’s not totalitarian in the manner of North Korean or Ba’athist Iraq, but few places are. The anxiety is not that a successor regime would be worse, but that there would be no successor regime, just a collection of fiefdoms.