What about the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and I’ve seen some online buzz speculating that Iran may decide to close it in order to punish the west. If so, what might happen?:
Sven Moxnes Harfjeld, President and CEO of DHT Holdings suggested that there would be a scramble by oil buyers and traders to replace the approximately 15 million barrels per day of crude oil coming out of the Gulf, adding that buyers were already looking around at possible replacement sources.
Frontline’s Barstad followed up, saying: “We’ve been close to this situation before… I actually seriously doubt that the Strait can be closed for any prolonged period of time.”
He saw escorted convoys as one potential solution. “You are actually sailing in Omani waters… I think that we can be exposed to delays as we proceed here – the first would be daylight only navigation – you could see convoys.”
Reassurance can also be found here:
Hotheads and hardliners within Iran’s government may get their way and impose an irrational closure. But considering all the factors, the Iranians are unlikely to initiate such a move. Iran would suffer because of its loss of revenue-earning capacity. Iran would permanently lose its export markets, with China switching to more dependable, alternative suppliers, particularly at a time when there is crude over-supply. China, the last Security Council member with an inclination to support Iran but never a huge admirer, would likely abandon Iran politically. The battle to keep the strait open which would ensue would see Iran’s entire petrochemical infrastructure destroyed. This would please the Russians very much, because it would force oil prices higher, needed to fund their war in Ukraine.
Closer to home, Qatar has shared commercial links with Iran over jointly-owned gas fields. Oman has always maintained cordial links with Iran. Any attempt on Iran’s part to enforce a closure – for example by laying sea mines – would upset what are essentially neutral relationships, particularly if territorial waters were infringed. For Oman in particular, any Iranian attempt to interdict shipping on the Omani side of the Straits would be catastrophic for a carefully-nurtured relationship which is of greater value to Iran than Oman – any trust would be destroyed should there be armed clashes or drone strikes across meridian lines.
And yet the rumors persist, mainly because Iran has made the threat:
“If the United States officially and operationally enters the war in support of the Zionists (Israel), it is the legitimate right of Iran in view of pressuring the U.S. and Western countries to disrupt their oil trade’s ease of transit,” Ali Yazdikhah, a senior Iranian lawmaker, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Mehr news agency on Thursday.
Closing the Strait would basically amount to attacking ships trying to pass through it; it cannot be literally closed.
Closing the Strait amounts to committing economic suicide fro Iran. Their oil goes through the Strait as well. How long can they live without oil income?
Secondly, how many war ships does Iran have to carry out this mission? Not many, and those would no doubt be easily put out of action by Israeli air power or U.S. Navy ships. I don’t think it’s a plausible threat.
Iran is becoming more isolated with each passing day. The Mullahs may not want to negotiate, but as things get worse inside Iran, it’s probable that the military may take charge and force the government to negotiate a settlement.
They can’t win, and their position becomes more tenuous with every passing day. That said, this could go on for quite some time. They are fanatics who are expecting Allah to come to their aid.
If they try, Operation Praying Mantis II.
Wikipedia
Operation Praying Mantis was the 18 April 1988 attack by the United States on Iranian naval targets in the Persian Gulf in retaliation for the mining of a U.S. warship four days earlier.
…
Praying Mantis was the largest of the U.S. Navy’s five major surface engagements since World War II. It saw the U.S. Navy’s first exchange of anti-ship missiles with opposing ships, and its only sinking of a major surface combatant since World War II.”
From the “Just Asking Questions” File…
…this guy is a real piece of work:
“MSNBC Analyst, a Former Obama Official, Calls Iran ‘Most Western Nation’ in the Middle East;
“Iranians chant death to America but ‘love American movies,’ says Richard Stengel”—
https://freebeacon.com/latest-news/msnbc-analyst-a-former-obama-official-calls-iran-most-western-nation-in-the-middle-east/
H/T Instapundit
(He, for some reason, forgot to say that they also love popcorn, hotdogs and apple pie….)
Opening grafs:
>>Secondly, how many war ships does Iran have to carry out this mission? Not many, and those would no doubt be easily put out of action by Israeli air power or U.S. Navy ships. I don’t think it’s a plausible threat. (J.J.)
This was my initial reaction to this post. Logistically, how could Iran pull it off at this point?
“Logistically, how could Iran pull it off at this point?”
I assume it would have to resort to anti-ship missiles (Chinese supplied or clones thereof) fired from mobile shore attacking points, where not from ships or aircraft now deterred from sallying out. I don’t think this would be wise, or necessarily even work, but when has that sort of thing stopped the mullahs from their depredations?
Should I add “DON’T TOUCH OUR BOATS!”?
Because we really don’t like people touching our boats!
Stengel make my head ache he was on the dezinformanista, as he doesnt really care about the constitution
The only person harder hit than the mullahs by the Israeli attack on Iran is Barry. Not Meislin.
Not caring about Iranian nukes is prima facie evidence of serious overall derangement, not just the antisemitic kind. On right wing blogs I have noticed that with a few (usually predictable) exceptions even commenters who are steadfast skeptics of American military involvement overseas realize it would be really really bad if Iran nuked up, they just prefer that Israel do the job without our help.
There was a collision of 2 tankers near the Strait of Hormuz a couple days ago. There was also some hi-jinks going on with GPS navigation and tracking in the area that some are saying is an effort by Iran to combat the guidance systems of incoming ordnance.
What’s Going On With Shipping (WGOWS) has more details: (YouTube)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4dWc9JD6Uo
It doesn’t take military vessels to law mines. There’s still a lot of dhows in the area and I’m sure they have ideas about how to roll a mine or two off the deck.
As far as closing the straits goes, it’s another threat that can be used by Iranian sympathizers in the West to scare-monger.
Iran controls tha Straits of Hormuz until they don’t.
No need to repeat JJ’s points; they stand on their own.
It has become clear that Iran is a roaring Tiger until they are seriously challenged. The same could be said for their Proxies. Not so long ago, I read expert opinion stating what an awesome force Hezbollah was. I haven’t even heard the name in some time. Israel is doing the world’s dirty work.
No nukes, no worries. If Trump doesn’t ‘go’, I won’t be surprised if the Iranians hire some nuclear consultants from a company whose employees only speak Yiddish in very private settings. Maybe they will recommend a supplier for some new gadget to improve the centrifuges. Problem solved.
Well, my wife worries–about all of the military age men who crossed our southern border. I remind her that we pay a lot of money for the FBI, et al to protect us from such as those. That really worries her.
Closing the Strait would basically amount to attacking ships trying to pass through it; it cannot be literally closed.
This is a good point. It’s not like the Panama Canal, or Wally World. It’s 90 miles long and 20 – 50 miles across.
It is legally closed in a sense, depending on what you mean by “closed” and what you mean by “legal”. Both Iran and Oman have included it in their territorial waters and only “permit” what’s called “innocent passage”, the validity of which the United States denies.
Iran closing the Strait is like Canada debanking the truckers. It’s the kind of thing that if you do it, and it seems like you’re going to be doing it whenever you want, then all your clients are going to bail. The oil and gas that now goes through the Strait would be routed around permanently with pipelines, some of which are in existence now, and Iran could be shooting itself in the foot.
Incidentally does anyone remember when Iran captured our river boat crews in 2016? Occasionally Iranians will reenact it on the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.
Notice, I suggest, that Israel has thus far spared extremely vulnerable Iranian economic infrastructure. Largely, I surmise, on account of an Israeli hope that the mullahs will fall and the next regime will appreciate the benefits, as well as the rest of the world’s economies which don’t wish to suffer energy disruptions.
If, however, the war drags on and the mullahs appear to be surviving, I’d expect the Israelis won’t hesitate to grind the Iranian economy to fine powder. That would be a shame to the Iranians, but likely well deserved should it come to pass.
sdferr, that fine powder may be coming very soon. Israel is trying to stop all the missiles, but has not been able to so far, and they are causing damage.
About the Strait, I understand that Iran has maybe 6 subs, that are mining laying capable.
May not close it, but mines would seriously disrupt shipping. I believe that only France has a fleet of mine sweepers. Of course the US does not.
Just saw this on Instapundit
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/shell-ceo-contingency-plans-ready-if-strait-hormuz-closure-triggers-energy-shock
One could cause quite a bit of confusion – and gridlock – by laying mines and also by continuing to jam the GPS signals, making it impossible to resolve the uncertainty of a minefield. It would cause delays and excessive caution, but I don’t think they could effect a blockade for very long. Right now it probably is the most intensively-watched-by-military-resources area in the world.
Something else to worry about. 🙂
DHS warns smuggled Chinese jammers pose growing threat
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/jun/19/dhs-warns-smuggled-chinese-jammers-pose-growing-threat/
Select home-on-jam mode on your party favors.
When the Houthis – not exactly a maritime or military powerhouse – decided to launch missiles at ships on the Red Sea entering / leaving the Suez Canal, they forced many shipping companies to abandon the Suez “short cut” and travel the far greater distance around the Cape of Good Hope, South Africa.
These shipping companies decided that an extra week or so at sea, and its attendant extra costs, were better than having one of their ships sunk or seized.
Iran can do the same in the Straits of Hormuz with missiles or fast attack boats with missiles. They can be selective in which ships they target and allow their own, and other’s they choose to pass freely.
I don’t see why they would not do this.
As far as the mullahs ruling over Iran; if the USA decides to drop the “big one” on Iran’s underground nuke facility and totally demolish it, that does not mean the existing govt. in Iran will fall. It’s quite possible they will hang in their and continue creating havoc in the ME.
Rest assured, when this entire Iran mess is settled – and who knows when – get ready for those talking heads that guessed the right outcome to proclaim, “the outcome was obvious.”
Anyone who guesses correctly will be able to make this claim.
What is obvious, is that if Trump’s plans – whatever those may be – work out for the benefit of the region and the world at large – he will be relentlessly criticized and attacked by the demonkrats and their propaganda organ, the media.
You can bet that the demonkrats / media are hoping, licking their chops, praying that Trump’s policies prove a disaster; they would prefer a disaster in lieu of a good outcome because it would harm Trump.
Anybody can do anything–militarily speaking–if allowed a sanctuary.
No difference in total combat power matters. Examples go back at least to the Greek Civil War where Yugoslavia was a sanctuary and the reds were doing reasonably well. Until Tito changed his mind and…The End.
Astan. Pakistan was the enemy’s sanctuary. You just stay and pay whatever it costs to use up the other guy’s interest while leaving his principle untouched. Could go on forever or until you get tired.
If Iran is not allowed sanctuary status, things will be different from last time. And Trump isn’t the kind of guy to play that game for long.
You can work around the bab al mandel you really cant if you impair the straits of course drawing down on spr made the situation worse as it makes mitigating an attack against abquaiq like 2019 worse