Israel continues to pound Iran
I don’t think Iran expected this, but it should have. Israel has capacities that till now it hasn’t fully used – but the Israelis are plenty motivated to not only end Iran’s nuclear program but to end its present regime. The question of what comes after will have to wait; the answer is unknown.
It’s of particular interest that much of the world seems to be content to let Israel do this – especially the Arab world, most of which considers Iran the enemy.
Here’s a good summary of what’s occurred so far in the five days of war. Here’s an article (hat tip: commenter “physicsguy”) on Iran’s built-to-be-unreachable Fordow nuclear site:
“For Fordow to be taken out by a bomb from the sky, the only country in the world that has that bomb is the United States. And that’s a decision the United States has to take, whether or not it chooses to actually pursue that course,” Leiter said. But, he added, that wasn’t the only option: “There are other ways of dealing with Fordow.”
Destroying Fordow from the air would be almost impossible for Israel, according to a March report from the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and would require significant firepower and assistance from the United States.
It would not even be reachable by the US’ GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator bombs, which only reach about 60 meters deep, according to the RUSI report. And the GBU-57 can only be delivered by US Air Force B-2 stealth bombers, something Israel doesn’t have – even if the US would give it the bombs.
“Even the GBU-57/B would likely require multiple impacts at the same aiming point to have a good chance of penetrating the facility,” said the report.
Everything is on the table. Iran and its leaders – the ones who remain alive – are very very vulnerable right now. And Trump delivers a message to the people of Tehran: get out of town. We have no beef with you.
The other way to destroy Fordow requires boots on the ground and lots of TNT. That is the extent to which I’d support us going in. It is not up to us to topple the current regime or install a new one.
I believe the progressively diminishing numbers of ballistic missile launched by the IRGC as the days go by give a clear indication that Israel’s targeting of missile launching vehicles and missile stockpiles are having their desired effect. Too, each new barrage from Iran pinpoints new targets for the Israeli forces overhead, so ultimately aid in the near term outcome favoring Israel’s victory. Of necessity suffering strikes in Israel is part of that, and terrible, yet the sooner those may end is the aim.
Trump is now pretty much telling Iran that they have to surrender “unconditionally”, saying that they know exactly where the Supreme Leader is and can “take him out” at any time.
Can you please ban/block “Sophie?” “She’s” spamming every post.
“…from the sky…”
Might one wonder about “taking it out” from the sides?
(That is, from the base circumference?)
top gun maverick, made it took much easier,
https://www.intel-lab.net/post/fordow-fuel-enrichment-plant-as-never-seen-before
Marisa:
Sophie’s an especially wily bot. But I’ll get her in the end.
@neo: It’s of particular interest that much of the world seems to be content to let Israel do this – especially the Arab world, most of which considers Iran the enemy.
^^^
_________________________
Somebody loan me a dime
I need to call my old time, used to be
Somebody loan me a dime
Mmm, I need to call my old time, used to be
–Duane Allman & Boz Scaggs, “Loan Me A Dime”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv60Dz9hUPo
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I miss Duane.
Is Sophie actually a bot, and not a human paid to post things? Not that it matters from a bannination perspective. The profit motive would explain the persistent evasion nicely.
I agree with @rjb1. Unfortunately, the only way to destroy the Fordow nuclear facility is the ancient one of infantry, the queen of battle.
1. Now that we know that Israel set up a drone base on Iranian soil, the plan may very well include a land-based attack on Fordow. There is certainly enough unused ordinance around to generate a massive shockwave.
2. Here in Israel the air-raid alerts have been tapering off, which conforms to what we hear about Israel dominating Iran’s air space and cleaning out missile launchers. Friday night we had 3-4 trips to the bomb shelter; that number decreased by half on Saturday night. We then had a few one-off late morning attacks, which is not the preferred time to launch missiles (especially if your enemy is monitoring your airspace). I wonder if this indicates a breakdown in command, with panicked, disconnected operatives launching the missiles they have at their site.
seeing that diagram, of Fordow, how exactly did they manage to construct it,
And Trump delivers a message to the people of Tehran: get out of town.
It occurred to me that if half or more of the peoples of Tehran actually did get out of town, that… in and of itself… would cause great havoc.
Link to an editorial from the WSJ, because it just wouldn’t be a post from me without one:
https://archive.md/lRMvU
Which got me thinking, how do we know these “deep penetrating bombs” even work? Maybe it’s in our national security interests to find out.
By the way Niketas Choniates, spectacular use of the word “ bannination”.
Fwiw
https://x.com/Osint613/status/1935020414373102048
Of course a cornered animal can strike out
”Which got me thinking, how do we know these ‘deep penetrating bombs’ even work?”
By testing them at test sites such as the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico (GBU-57), the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada (GBU-28), and Eglin Air Force Base in Florida (GBU-72). All but the GBU-57 have been used operationally by the United States and / or Israel in Iraq, Gaza, Yugoslavia, Yemen, and other places.