The drone attack: “Russia’s Pearl Harbor”
It’s mostly Russians who are calling the recent drone attack by Ukraine “Russia’s Pearl Harbor,” because that would make Russia seem the innocent victim of a sneak attack that was unprovoked. Russia, of course, started this war, which makes the analogy absurd. However, Russia apparently did sustain quite a blow.
What it does to the peace talks is anybody’s guess.
More:
On Sunday, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued an official statement that a coordinated Ukrainian drone swarm attack targeted and damaged military aircraft across several airbases located deep within Russian territory. …
Multiple U.S. media outlets—including Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, and CBS News—have independently confirmed the Ukrainian drone swarm operation targeted and destroyed approximately 40 Russian military aircraft across four airbases.
According to Ukrainian intelligence officials cited by CBS News, the aircraft destroyed include Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 bombers, which play a central role in Russia’s strategic and nuclear-capable long-range aviation forces.
These are aircraft that have been used to launch attacks on Ukraine. Ukraine says it informed Washington; the Trump administration denies this.
More details here.
The larger picture is that drone attacks seem to be the new face of warfare and probably will necessitate a huge adjustment in strategy and tactics. We’ve known about this need for quite some time; let’s hope we’re preparing quickly. Here’s an article with some details:
[Gen. Randy George, chief of staff of the Army] noted that technology is changing too rapidly on the modern battlefield to be wedded to these large procurement programs that historically have taken years to develop and once fielded, can be largely obsolete.
He wants to shrink the timeline it takes to develop systems and get them in the hands of soldiers, especially given much of these capabilities, such as drones, communications gear and electronic warfare tools, are increasingly available on the commercial market.
…
The Army has been experimenting with this approach through what it calls transforming-in-contact, which aims to speed up how the service buys technologies and designs its forces by injecting emerging capabilities into units and letting them experiment with them during exercises and deployments. …He also noted that Ukraine’s drone attack over the weekend flips the cost curve. Kyiv used relatively cheap systems to destroy millions to billions of dollars worth of Russian combat power.
“Look at how cheap those systems were compared to what they took out. We have to be thinking about that [with] everything we’re doing,” George said.
The attack, furthermore, exemplified how transparent battlefields are becoming, meaning there is nowhere to hide.
“We talk a lot about you can’t really hide anymore on the modern battlefield. You’re going to have to be dispersed, lower signature, all of those things, which we talk a lot about with our troops and with our commanders,” George said.
Our military needs to scramble to figure out a way to defend against this sort of thing, and I hope they’ve been working on it for quite some time because the threat has been obvious for a while.
This is so important. I heard a podcast (School of War, with Aaron MacLean) where he interviewed some Australian general who told him that drone warfare is evolving insanely quickly, innovations being countered in days and weeks.
Meanwhile, McDonnell Douglas, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Martin Marietta are all trying to provide weaponry to fight the last war instead of the next. Pivoting away from antiquated styles of procurement might solve a lot of problems and take a lot of power away from people who have gotten too used to having it.
I realize that probably makes far too much sense…
If the drones are displaying white privilege or are transphobic then they’ll have it covered.
Israel has reported the first combat use of laser weapons against drones.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2025/06/israel-deploys-new-class-of-laser-weapon-to-intercept-hezbollah-drones/
Israel Deploys New Class of Laser Weapon to Intercept Drones
Israel’s Ynetnews: Laser-based air defense system “capable of intercepting short-range threats—including rockets, mortars, and drones—within a 10-kilometer radius.”
In a historic breakthrough, Israel unveiled a new class of weapon systems to bolster the country’s air defenses. Earlier this week, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) disclosed that it successfully intercepted dozens of Hezbollah drones fired from Lebanon using a laser-based defense system.
“Israel said it used a laser air-defense system to shoot down drones in wartime, deploying weapons that would mark a technological leap on the battlefield,” The Wall Street Journal reported. “Israel’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that it has intercepted drones with laser-powered weapons more than 40 times since its multifront war began after Hamas attacked from Gaza in October 2023.”
Israel’s Defense Ministry released footage of the system in action against drones fired by Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah.
more like the doolittle raid, for the range of the target, this resembles the battle of the cities that went on for 8 years between iraq and iran, of course the West found a way to arm both sides as well as ostensibly neutral countries like India,
Israel’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday that it has intercepted drones with laser-powered weapons more than 40 times…
Go Israel go. I hope we’re learning from them.
I’m sure we’re responding to the drone threat by building much bigger and more expensive everything.
“I’m not gonna fire a $2 million missile at a $10 empty tent and hit a camel in the butt,” as one US President said many trillions of dollars ago, but nonetheless that is what the defense establishment is set up to do.
Ah, what’s money, we’ll just borrow and print more… it’s always worked so far…
So the drones were launched from spots inside Russia, quite close the the airbases, and they were operated by humans via remote control. Was the datalink to the drones long range, I wonder? If it was shorter range, then some Ukrainian operators would have had to engage in a seemingly suicidal mission.
________
The larger picture is that drone attacks seem to be the new face of warfare and probably will necessitate a huge adjustment in strategy and tactics. We’ve known about this need for quite some time; let’s hope we’re preparing quickly.
I was a civilian employee of the Navy for many years and our dept. had weekly colloquia. One 20+ years ago was given by a guy who was in charge of a branch of DoD that collected, studied and tested weaponry used by our adversaries. They also tested our systems and weapons we planned to use to counter those foreign systems.
One of his points back then was that things like laser guided weapons were changing the landscape. He said the conventional weapons like artillery and mortars take a certain amount intelligence, skill, and training to operate effectively. Now (back then) some relatively untrained soldier can point an infrared laser beam at something and pull a trigger.
Concerning this much newer drone threat to airbases, I wonder if something rather conventional like the Navy’s Phalanx CIWS could be used to counter that threat. It’s targeting is automated with a radar system in its dome structure. We had one of the CIWS Vulcan cannons located in the lobby of our building for a while.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_qSLR7a5qI
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS
Interestingly from the Wiki article…
A land variant, the LPWS (Land Phalanx Weapon System), part of the Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) system, was developed.[6] It was deployed to counter rocket, artillery and mortar attacks during the 2021 US withdrawal from Afghanistan.[7][8]
some bases in the far east, are nowhere near any base except some in kazakhstan, near where the baikonur space port is located, but that seems unlikely
Putin will redouble his efforts, as the foolish Kursk offensive, proved ultimately counterproductive,
The official story seems to be a little too “Mission Impossible,” but I suppose it could be true. These days, I suppose everything could be true. Or false. The question is what Putin will do in response. He and those who support him might now realize that a negotiated settletment is in Russia/Putin’s best interest, before the Ukies take out more of Russia’s military hardware. (The deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers seems not to have had much effect.) Or, this could simply presage another round of escalation. If Ukraine can strike thousands of miles inside Russia, that green-lights a similar Russian response in Ukraine. A few dozen ballistic missiles with large conventional warheads into Kiev is clearly in the cards.
Conservative Tree House. Has a very different take on the strike. He thinks
That it puts the nuclear non-proliferation treaty between the US and Russia in danger.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/06/02/zelenskys-gauntlet-did-ukraine-just-draw-the-usa-and-nato-closer-to-war-with-russia-by-targeting-russian-strategic-long-range-bombers-covered-by-salt-and-start-treaties/
@Paul In Boston: From your link:
If true then the comparison to Pearl Harbor makes a little more sense in that the bombers were vulnerable due to a treaty requirement.
I sincerely doubt our DoD is anywhere up to speed on drone technology. We are not at war, so there’s no motivation to innovate. History has shown that war drives technology innovations. The Ukrainians are fighting for survival, and as the old saying goes, it’s focusing their minds.
I remember the T 22M aka the Backfire, because in 1979, the Soviets put a squadron of them in Cuba, and Jimmeh was hemma hommening about that, that among other things was probably why SALT 2 wasn’t ratified, to the disdain of the arms control clerisy, whose spokesman was Strobe Talbott, who learned nothing about the 1980s when he was Clinton’s viceroy, in the 90s, of course the late Tretyakov had a wry chuckle about how easily it was to fool strobe, according to Peter Earley his ghost, these rear bases were probably like the Bastion, the sub pens that we were never to attack, even though the Soviets didnt think much of going after our bases in the UK and other sites,
so the TU 95 is the old workhouse comparable to the B 52 stratofortress, which is too say, a weapon that has been superseded by hypersonic missiles like the Khinshal, or the new heavy lift booster the Satan,
Pearl Harbor was America’s Port Arthur. They were both coups de main. So was the attack on Taranto. So was this.
41 warbirds claimed but only 5 verified however.
Japan’s attack on Clark Field decimated the US Army B-17 bomber forces on December 8, 1941.
Poor Russia and their second Moskva event. As far as Conservative Nuthouse and Somedunce goes; if Vladdy wants to use up and wear out his long range bombers dropping high explosives on Ukraine, he deserves his FAFO lesson.
Does Somedunce know the difference between nuclear treaties and war crimes that are in progress?
An assertion at X by someone often pretty insightful:
“Everything drones are made of, is made in China. And no, there is no alternative to that. The very point of a drone is that it is the dirt cheap weaponry, and every component of it must be dirt cheap. Which is possible, only as long as you produce them in mega-quantities (-> economy of scale) at the mega-factories of Pearl River Delta.”
https://x.com/kamilkazani/status/1929263321053622781
i do not think this is correct. My suspicion is that the US domestic + military market, plus that of potential foreign customers, is plenty large enough to achieve the requisite economies of scale. I bet a present-day Charles Sorensen could do for drones what the original Charles Sorensen did for the production of B-24 bombers.
https://strategosinc.com/RESOURCES/04-Lean_History/willow_run.htm
arms control, like international law, is a mugs game, only the likes of Witkoff really believe in it, as we see in these keystone talks with Iran, honestly they need someone like Gorka, instead of a mark more like Paul Nitze, which they did that silly walk in the woods, play about, I am reminded of the opening of that film Dawns Early Light, which starts with events in Eastern Ukraine, and then things go down hill from there,
it was based on a novel from one of those other Vietnam reporters who got things mostly wrong along with Halberstam and Sheehan, William Prochnau, it was originally set in the 80s, but the film forwarded the plot to the early 90s, with Martin Landau as the President,
we should take what the consequences are to these little games,
Bullshit about Pear Harbor and Port Authur. IIRC Japan didn’t surprise the Russian except by knowing what the were doing. The Russo Japan war didn’t start with the defeat of the Russian fleet at Port Authur.
The Japanese studied the Royal Navy’s success with torpedoes attacking the Italian fleet at the Taranto harbor and modified their torpedoes and tactics for use at Pearl Harbor. That’s as far as you can push it.
actually Sidney Reilly informed the Russian high command about what the Japanese were up to, but they thought so little of their adversary, so Sidney did what any enterprising businessman would do, corner the market on critical supplies, when the attack came,
I have mentioned how Dusko Popov observed these maneuvers and allegedly told Hoover of what was being suggested, but again, the latter did not listen properly,
One might observe all the little crumbs that appeared in the run up to 9-11 going back to the Concorde Hijacking attempt in 94, were not properly collated and reached the proper conclusion
When I was in Korea, I worked at a university that specialized in science and engineering. I can remember talking to people who were there for a conference on micro-drones. The military applications were scary, but undeniably interesting. That was in 2002.
For at least twenty years, military strategists have speculated about drones carried and launched by the ubiquitous shipping containers found on ships, trains, and trucks. I haven’t kept up with this, but Ukraine’s recent attack on a Russian airbase is an obvious example. China has almost certainly made similar plans for the US west coast. Hopefully, these are only at the stage of war games, but who knows?
The Tupolev bombers, like our B-52s, went out of production decades ago, so the destroyed/damaged Russian bombers cannot be replaced or decently repaired.
I marvel at the invincibility and determination of the Ukraine, which has been bullied and starved by the Kremlin for a century now, with the deaths of millions of Ukrainians at Morcow’s hands. Trump better get right with God in his lackadaisical posture in this matter.
In the Newsweek article the idea that it was a “sneak stack” by Ukraine is particularly risible.
Was Ukraine supposed to notify the Russians that their military airfields deep inside Russia were going to be attacked?
Will Russia be buying strategic bombers from China now? North Korea and Iran aren’t capable suppliers.
Maybe the Russians can make a deal with Elbonia for some airframes.
A tactical success, and strategic blunder.
Yes, “sneak attack” in a war already years in the works is an interesting concept.
A strategic blunder? Yes, Vladdy invading Ukraine was a strategic blunder.
It was not a “sneak” attack. It was a surprise attack.
Wikipedia
Coup de main
The United States Department of Defense defines it as “An offensive operation that capitalizes on surprise and simultaneous execution of supporting operations to achieve success in one swift stroke.”
Re: Port Arthur
From Maritime Operations in the Russo-Japanese War Vol 1
“… It will be recognized at once that the effect of the attack had been to break up the foundations of the Russian war plan. That plan had been founded on two assumptions – firstly, that no direct attack on Port Arthur would be made in the face of the undefeated squadron; and secondly, that the squadron could dispute the command of the Yellow Sea. Both those postulates had gone.”
Nigglies like badmouthing DoD and the Pentagon are no longer appropriate.
The tactic of using artillery and tanks/armor to prep a battlefield that can then be taken and held by infantry no longer works. Satellite intel and other electronic intel is too good.
Most major powers have planned for that tactic plus using high speed aircraft, rockets, missiles, and other precision guided ordnance. It’s outmoded, and vulnerable to third generation warfare. New tactics are needed.
Drones are cheap, low flying, slow flying, and capable of precision guidance. Air defense systems are adapting to them, but by sending swarms, a percentage will always reach the target. They can also be moved by stealth into range for “sneak attacks.”
It may well be that a laser weapon of some sort could be a more effective defense against drones. I hope we’re working on that.
Weapons like drones that are cheap, easily mass produced, and can be targeted precisely are the next generation of weapons. High tech bombers, missiles, hypersonic missiles, and submarines are all very expensive and while they are PGMs, only the submarines are hard to target in the present intel world.
Our nuclear subs are our ace in the hole at times like this. No one else has the capability that our subs have. Russia and China would like to have it. They don’t, although China is working hard to get up to speed.
I think Putin will try to bomb the crap out of Ukraine for this “sneak attack.” But he has financial limits that will come into play. He may be forced to accept peace talks soon, even though he doesn’t want to.
And Pearl Harbor is a valid metaphor, supplies? Surprise, Russia wasn’t prepared.
Ukraine has been performing long range attacks on Russian targets for more than a year; this was just a bigger and better unexpected, complete, surprise.
Who expected the Moskva to be sunk? Who expected the Black Sea Fleet to be chased out of the Black Sea by marine drones? Who expected the Kerch Straits Bridge to be disabled temporarily? Who expected Ukrainian sea drones to shoot down Russian jets?
Who expected Russians to execute Ukrainian POWs? Who expected Russian Safari hunts (FPV drone attacks) of Ukrainian civilians in Kershon? Who expected Bucha?
General Zaluzhnyi made a major speech a few years ago staining in part that new methods and tactics were needed to deal with the Russians. Another surprise I guess.
J.J.
The British, Israel. and the USN are working on laser systems for point defense situations. Supposedly microwave systems too.
@neo: The larger picture is that drone attacks seem to be the new face of warfare and probably will necessitate a huge adjustment in strategy and tactics.
That’s my takeaway.
Tech is moving faster than most people, even those paid to do so, grasp.
9-11 wasn’t just a disaster but a failure of reasonable imagination.
1. A suggestion: If you encounter a Tucker Carlson “I’m not anti-semitic, I’m anti Israel” type – send them links like that laser defense news item… goes a long way to explain the bipartisan support for Israel in Congress. Faced with such links, the clever ones shut up, the more fever-brained spill their bile and reveal themselves.
2. Drones are not dependent on China – the whole point is they are assembled from simple systems easily sourced/manufactured anywhere…. based on my (limited) experience with Israeli military drones, they are not being assembled from consumer parts – maybe that was first generation and/or guerilla situations… But they are still much easier to assemble than larger craft – and more importantly, less costly to lose.
Another
attack by Ukraine on the
Kerch Strait bridge. This time, it is reported (Ukraine the Latest podcast) by an underwater drone.
Poor Vladdy.
“Vladdy in his bunker” memes to come soon?