Birthrates large and small
Commenter “Snow on Pine” recently started a discussion about people claiming China’s population is less than officially reported. That rang a small bell for me; I believe such rumors/reports are mostly based on the work of this guy:
China has long been over-reporting its population, over 100 million people fewer than officially claimed, a Chinese scientist told Newsweek, a claim met with strong resistance from demography circles.
Yi Fuxian, an obstetrician at University of Wisconsin-Madison who conducts demography research, said the censuses China carries out every 10 years are “seriously overestimated” in an effort to match official estimates. The annual data should be corrected with the census data, he said. …
… [A] closer look at demographics showed a glaring disparity, Yi said. Around 164.24 million babies were born between 1991 and 2000. After accounting for these births and subtracting deaths and net migration, there were about 40 million fewer Chinese than reported.
However, Yi is apparently pretty much alone among scientists in thinking that.
What is not disputed is China’s very low birthrate, shared by other Asian nations such as South Korea and Japan. Here’s a handy chart in which countries around the world are listed by birthrates in descending order. It’s readily apparent that different areas of the world have very different birthrates, with Africa the highest (for example Niger, number one, has a rate of 6.7), then countries in the Arab world and Latin America, as well as places like Tajikistan. Then come the nations of the West, with the US fairly high in that category (1.7). Bringing up the rear is some of Asia, minus Laos (2.36), Cambodia (2.51), and Vietnam (1.88). Here are the large countries in Asia with the very low birthrates: China at 1.02, Japan at 1.23, and South Korea at .75.
One of the outliers is Israel, a highly developed country with a birthrate of 2.9. This is not due, as most people might assume, to very high birthrates among the very religious. Although the latter phenomenon does exist, there are not enough ultra-Orthodox people in Israel to account for the highrate, which exists in all groups to varying degrees. Nor is it due to the 20% of Israel’s population that is Arab. See this:
… [I]n recent years, Muslim women in Israel have almost the same number of children, on average, as Jewish women in Israel do. In contrast, fertility remains very high among the Haredi Jewish population, who are at the same 6.5 rate of pre-Revolution Iran. Even Jewish Israelis outside the Haredi community have higher fertility than their counterparts in other countries. …
… [E]ven though Haredi [ultra-Orthodox] fertility is high, it is far below maximal levels observed in other populations (10 children per woman on average), and it is consciously limited and controlled by married couples, implying that family planning and family limitation in this population is widespread.
Beyond the wide disparities in fertility among various Jewish subpopulations, Israel is also unique in the value placed on having children among self-described secular Jews, who most commonly have three children by the time they complete their families, a markedly higher rate than their Diaspora counterparts. Why?
It’s that phenomenon – the secular Jewish birthrate in Israel – that is unusual. Here’s the explanation the article gives (in addition to a generally “pro-natalist” policy by the government):
The collectivist and communitarian core of Israel’s social philosophy places a family-shaped framework around its mores at all levels of society. Individuals rely to a great extent on their families within and across generations, strengthening family bonds and engendering a broad and expanded conception of the family: in size, relational lines, and responsibility. Put another way, cultural codes for family behavior and commitment are rather extensive because familial feeling extends beyond the boundaries of the nuclear family. Taking this into account, we can understand Israel’s high fertility in part as springing from the institution that serves as the foundation of family life: marriage.
The author points out that over time there’s been a slow and slight reduction in the Israeli birthrate among secular Jews, and that may or may not continue. But what I don’t see emphasized in the article, and what I think are also large factors, are two other things. The first is that about half of Israel’s Jewish population is descended from Jews from Arab and/or North African countries, and they may be following their own cultural heritage that somewhat resembles that of those countries. The second is that much of the other half of Israel’s Jewish population descended from Holocaust survivors, for whom every Jewish child born represents a triumph over the forces – then and now – which would destroy the Jews. Therefore I don’t think the Israeli experience can speak to that of other Western or Asian countries; it’s significantly different.
I’ve put up other posts – including videos focusing on China – about the falling birthrates in Asia and around the developed world, so I won’t go into a huge analysis of that now. This post just scratches the surface. But it’s a very important topic that I’ll probably revisit, one that doesn’t seem to be going away.
Interestingly enough, what the nations of east Asia are not doing in response to declining birth rates is opening their borders, the way the Wall Street Journal repeatedly tells them to.
China has long been over-reporting its population, over 100 million people fewer than officially claimed
Be this as it may, over-reporting population by 7% is very different from Snow on Pine’s claim that people have disappeared who once existed. His evidence is videos of cities once apparently crowded and now apparently empty. He does tend to conflate the two different claims, I’m not sure he does so deliberately, but he seems to think that evidence of one is also evidence of the other, which it is not.
Then come the nations of the West, with the US fairly high in that category (1.7).
“High”, though, only indicates the depth of the shallowest hole. Under 2.1 a population shrinks and over 2.1 it grows; it’s just a question of how quickly. In three generations a 1.9 TFR gets you a 15% drop, and a 1.7 TFR gets you a 40% drop.
But it’s a very important topic that I’ll probably revisit, one that doesn’t seem to be going away.
It most certainly isn’t, and the negative effects will continue for decades even if people start trying to put it right tomorrow.
It is only my own, personal feeling, I can’t back it up with data, but I feel a big part of the reason for high birth rates in Israel is that the young people are truly alive.
I heard Peter Robinson of the Hoover Institution talk about attending an international conference where most of the attendees were in their 30s. He was mingling and found the conversations mundane and tedious until he noticed a young woman who, despite also being in her 30s, seemed much wiser and mature. He struck up a conversation and she soon mentioned how unserious and boring she found the conversations of her colleagues. She was an Israeli. Peter shared that he had experienced the same and she stated it was because they were not alive. Living in Israel the youth are aware of the precarious nature of their nation, their villages, their families, their own lives. She found she couldn’t relate to people her age living outside of Israel because they were immature and lacked a developed understanding of their humanity.
Childless professionals in their 40s working a 4 day work week in Paris are put upon when asked to work two more years into their 60s for the good of the nation.
Israel may be the only developed country where the citizens feel a shared sense of community and the importance of contributing to it so that it does not vanish.
The birthrate in the U.S., especially in New York city, jumped noticeably after the September 11 attacks. Of course we have the baby boom just after WWII here and in much of the world.
Others here have written of the famous experiment with colonies of mice (was it the Skinner experiment?). Those who had all their needs easily met stopped breeding and reproducing.
About Israel:
I saw an example of Israeli family bonds when a 15 year old Israeli grandson/nephew/cousin visited his relatives in TX, relatives who were friends of mine. I was quite impressed with the kind, patient way the 15 year old Israeli treated his 11 year old cousin. In the US most 15 year old boys will consider 11 year old boys to be “squirts”–or worse.
BTW, the then-11 year old later made the decision to have his Bar Mitzvah in Israel. He had had little religious instruction in the US, so he got a cram course in Israel. No doubt that the kind treatment he got from his Israeli cousin contributed to the decision.
@Rufus:famous experiment with colonies of mice (was it the Skinner experiment?).
John B. Calhoun, and it was Norway rats, though I often see it called “mouse utopia”.
I have heard reports that in the US , conservative families reproduce above replacement rate and conservative Christians above that.
Thanks, Niketas!
Neo,
What you seem to have highlighted is a difference between the Ashkenazi Jews and the Sephardic Jews. The Ashkenazi Jews are predominantly from Europe and survived the Holocaust, the Pale of Jewish Settlement, various pogroms, and other anti-Semitic acts over the centuries. The Sephardic Jews come predominantly from the Middle East, North Africa, and Spain. They did not experience the hardships of the Ashkenazi and thus were not necessarily as into the creation of Israel as the Ashkenazi were. However, I am not Jewish, so there might be some details I am missing or maybe oversimplifying.
A woman living in a predominately Mormon community said that the non-Mormons have a very high birth rate. She attributes it to the way the houses are designed for large families, the way the stores are easier to handle with several children than stores outside the area for even one, and all the little old Mormon ladies who admire your children, talk about how nice it is to have so many families, and ask when you’re having your next.
Jeff, Sephardi and Mizrahi Jews went through plenty of hardships of their own in their long history.
There were high points along the way, too, but the whims of their neighbors (and their rulers), along with the always potentially volatile religious animosity meant that things could never be entirely certain.
Regarding the Holocaust, communities of Tripolitanian Jews (living in Italian-controlled Libya) were eventually rounded up, Morocco’s Jews were saved because King Mohammed the Fifth insisted on protecting them, and then there was the “Farhud” in Iraq in 1943.
When Zionism became an issue, and especially after Israel was established, centuries-old (and more) communities were upended in some cases practically overnight and in others over a longer period.
To witness a similar phenomenon, if not exactly the same, take a look at Iran’s Jewish community since the Islamic revolution; but more recently, look at what’s been happening in Turkey since Erdogan embarked on his anti-Ataturk, neo-Ottoman adventure.
Continued…
In addition, the Sephardi community in Salonica (Thessaloniki) Greece was decimated, most of the Jews from there having been transported to Auschwitz…
Jeff Cox
The late matriarch of the TX Jewish family I discussed in the above comment was from Morocco, and thus Sephardic. Her son from TX and sister from Morocco settled in Israel, so they were definitely “into the creation of Israel.” And Moroccan Jews had not suffered the persecution that other Middle Eastern Jews did after the creation of the State of Israel. About half of Israel’s Jewish population is Sephardic or Mizrahi.
One difference between Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews is their culinary tradition. I find Ashkenazi food to be rather blah. Matzoh ball soup? Give me a break. Moroccan Sephardic food is spicy–delicious.
I went to this year’s Passover Seder with the daughter of the family. The food was all Ashkenazi. The chicken had no seasoning. The Moroccan mother had taught the Synagogue’s cook some Moroccan dishes– such as chicken spicy with prunes and other fruit and vegetables– which was served at Passover Seders. Unfortunately, the cook had retired, and the Moroccan mother was recently deceased.
1. I am pretty sure most Jews connect to the idea of a Jewish child as a rebuke of our mortal enemies, a resolute response to suffering, and sweet affirmation.
2. Israelis have strong social networks involving family, school, and army service. This is remarked in discussions of “Start-up Nation” but it goes deeper. There is still a strong patriotic/ideological streak running through secular Israeli culture, and of course the religious communities.
Israeli kids are raised knowing that they will be drafted after high school. This is made more explicit from 8th grade on, with field trips, speakers and history assignments. This message – as well as other opportunities to develop responsibility and leadership – is reinforced in both secular Scouting and equivalent religious youth groups.
And then comes the army – which in Israel puts more emphasis on personal discipline than externally imposed obedience, and a deep connection and sense of responsibility within the smaller units/teams…. these are the life-long relationships, the people my sons say they are fighting for when in battle.
In modern times army service is followed by overseas travel before starting university or going into a trade.
So when an Israeli steps foot on a college campus, they are not the quivering, unformed, undisciplined, unproven blobs that most Western kids are.
My sons have said similar things to what Rufus T.F. reports – when they were asked to lead or speak to groups of visiting North Americans, they found them very immature.
My guess is that Israeli kids are very similar to how US kids were before the 1960s…. scouting, rifle clubs, service to one’s church, etc.
Thank you for all that first hand detail, Ben David.