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Birthrates large and small — 13 Comments

  1. Interestingly enough, what the nations of east Asia are not doing in response to declining birth rates is opening their borders, the way the Wall Street Journal repeatedly tells them to.

  2. China has long been over-reporting its population, over 100 million people fewer than officially claimed

    Be this as it may, over-reporting population by 7% is very different from Snow on Pine’s claim that people have disappeared who once existed. His evidence is videos of cities once apparently crowded and now apparently empty. He does tend to conflate the two different claims, I’m not sure he does so deliberately, but he seems to think that evidence of one is also evidence of the other, which it is not.

    Then come the nations of the West, with the US fairly high in that category (1.7).

    “High”, though, only indicates the depth of the shallowest hole. Under 2.1 a population shrinks and over 2.1 it grows; it’s just a question of how quickly. In three generations a 1.9 TFR gets you a 15% drop, and a 1.7 TFR gets you a 40% drop.

    But it’s a very important topic that I’ll probably revisit, one that doesn’t seem to be going away.

    It most certainly isn’t, and the negative effects will continue for decades even if people start trying to put it right tomorrow.

  3. It is only my own, personal feeling, I can’t back it up with data, but I feel a big part of the reason for high birth rates in Israel is that the young people are truly alive.

    I heard Peter Robinson of the Hoover Institution talk about attending an international conference where most of the attendees were in their 30s. He was mingling and found the conversations mundane and tedious until he noticed a young woman who, despite also being in her 30s, seemed much wiser and mature. He struck up a conversation and she soon mentioned how unserious and boring she found the conversations of her colleagues. She was an Israeli. Peter shared that he had experienced the same and she stated it was because they were not alive. Living in Israel the youth are aware of the precarious nature of their nation, their villages, their families, their own lives. She found she couldn’t relate to people her age living outside of Israel because they were immature and lacked a developed understanding of their humanity.

    Childless professionals in their 40s working a 4 day work week in Paris are put upon when asked to work two more years into their 60s for the good of the nation.

    Israel may be the only developed country where the citizens feel a shared sense of community and the importance of contributing to it so that it does not vanish.

  4. The birthrate in the U.S., especially in New York city, jumped noticeably after the September 11 attacks. Of course we have the baby boom just after WWII here and in much of the world.

    Others here have written of the famous experiment with colonies of mice (was it the Skinner experiment?). Those who had all their needs easily met stopped breeding and reproducing.

  5. About Israel:

    Individuals rely to a great extent on their families within and across generations, strengthening family bonds and engendering a broad and expanded conception of the family:

    I saw an example of Israeli family bonds when a 15 year old Israeli grandson/nephew/cousin visited his relatives in TX, relatives who were friends of mine. I was quite impressed with the kind, patient way the 15 year old Israeli treated his 11 year old cousin. In the US most 15 year old boys will consider 11 year old boys to be “squirts”–or worse.

    BTW, the then-11 year old later made the decision to have his Bar Mitzvah in Israel. He had had little religious instruction in the US, so he got a cram course in Israel. No doubt that the kind treatment he got from his Israeli cousin contributed to the decision.

  6. @Rufus:famous experiment with colonies of mice (was it the Skinner experiment?).

    John B. Calhoun, and it was Norway rats, though I often see it called “mouse utopia”.

  7. I have heard reports that in the US , conservative families reproduce above replacement rate and conservative Christians above that.

  8. Neo,

    What you seem to have highlighted is a difference between the Ashkenazi Jews and the Sephardic Jews. The Ashkenazi Jews are predominantly from Europe and survived the Holocaust, the Pale of Jewish Settlement, various pogroms, and other anti-Semitic acts over the centuries. The Sephardic Jews come predominantly from the Middle East, North Africa, and Spain. They did not experience the hardships of the Ashkenazi and thus were not necessarily as into the creation of Israel as the Ashkenazi were. However, I am not Jewish, so there might be some details I am missing or maybe oversimplifying.

  9. A woman living in a predominately Mormon community said that the non-Mormons have a very high birth rate. She attributes it to the way the houses are designed for large families, the way the stores are easier to handle with several children than stores outside the area for even one, and all the little old Mormon ladies who admire your children, talk about how nice it is to have so many families, and ask when you’re having your next.

  10. Jeff, Sephardi and Mizrahi Jews went through plenty of hardships of their own in their long history.
    There were high points along the way, too, but the whims of their neighbors (and their rulers), along with the always potentially volatile religious animosity meant that things could never be entirely certain.

    Regarding the Holocaust, communities of Tripolitanian Jews (living in Italian-controlled Libya) were eventually rounded up, Morocco’s Jews were saved because King Mohammed the Fifth insisted on protecting them, and then there was the “Farhud” in Iraq in 1943.

    When Zionism became an issue, and especially after Israel was established, centuries-old (and more) communities were upended in some cases practically overnight and in others over a longer period.

    To witness a similar phenomenon, if not exactly the same, take a look at Iran’s Jewish community since the Islamic revolution; but more recently, look at what’s been happening in Turkey since Erdogan embarked on his anti-Ataturk, neo-Ottoman adventure.

  11. Continued…
    In addition, the Sephardi community in Salonica (Thessaloniki) Greece was decimated, most of the Jews from there having been transported to Auschwitz…

  12. Jeff Cox

    The Sephardic Jews come predominantly from the Middle East, North Africa, and Spain. They did not experience the hardships of the Ashkenazi and thus were not necessarily as into the creation of Israel as the Ashkenazi were.

    The late matriarch of the TX Jewish family I discussed in the above comment was from Morocco, and thus Sephardic. Her son from TX and sister from Morocco settled in Israel, so they were definitely “into the creation of Israel.” And Moroccan Jews had not suffered the persecution that other Middle Eastern Jews did after the creation of the State of Israel. About half of Israel’s Jewish population is Sephardic or Mizrahi.

    One difference between Ashkenazi and Sephardic Jews is their culinary tradition. I find Ashkenazi food to be rather blah. Matzoh ball soup? Give me a break. Moroccan Sephardic food is spicy–delicious.

    I went to this year’s Passover Seder with the daughter of the family. The food was all Ashkenazi. The chicken had no seasoning. The Moroccan mother had taught the Synagogue’s cook some Moroccan dishes– such as chicken spicy with prunes and other fruit and vegetables– which was served at Passover Seders. Unfortunately, the cook had retired, and the Moroccan mother was recently deceased.

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