The art of the Ukraine deal
Remember that minerals deal with Ukraine? Well, it’s been signed:
Ukrainian Economy Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko flew to Washington, D.C., Wednesday to help finalize the deal.
“On behalf of the Government of Ukraine, I signed the Agreement on the Establishment of a United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. Together with the United States, we are creating the Fund that will attract global investment into our country,” she wrote on X.
Upon taking office, President Donald Trump said he wanted Ukraine’s rare earth materials as a condition for continued U.S. support in the war. He described it as reimbursement for the billions of dollars of U.S. military assistance given to Ukraine.
How does CNN treat it? Like this: “Ukraine minerals deal is largely symbolic – but that’s enough for Donald Trump.” In other words, nothing much to see here – oh, and any credit belongs to Biden:
Ukraine’s minerals agreement with the United States stems from months of fraught haggling, and originates in a Ukrainian idea first offered during the amicable climes of the Biden administration. It has since become a persistent thorn in the side of Kyiv and Washington’s febrile relationship. President Volodymyr Zelensky had little choice but to sign something, or risk another seismic rupture in his relationship with President Donald Trump.
Yet the document CNN has seen sets the stage for a longer-term relationship between the US and Ukraine. It does not give an ironclad guarantee of American profits in the next years of the Trump administration.
Blahbity blah blah blah.
Russia is hardly pleased:
“Trump has finally pressured the Kyiv regime to pay for US aid with mineral resources,” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on Telegram.
“Now, the country that is about to disappear will have to use its national wealth to pay for military supplies.”
And the Trump administration is reported to be about to do this:
The Trump administration has told Congress that it intends to give the go-ahead for roughly $50 million of defense-related products to be exported to Ukraine through American industry sales direct to Kyiv, according to a new report.
I consider these developments tentatively positive steps, considering the depth and complexity of the problems in the area.
Annnnnnd: The USSR, oops! The Russians must now consider the idea that their next missile barrage might come close to, or strike, some part of Ukraine that the US has some degree of ownership interest in. That could greatly increase the cost of poker…
” the amicable climes of the Biden administration”, yes, if amicable means throwing money away after Dopey Joe has taken his cut for the Biden crime family.
Jesus, how much clearer signal can you send?
Trump kind of trapped himself with his Ukraine talk before the election, and now he’s feeling his way to a solution of some sort, or trying to. I’m encouraged that he does seem to be aware of the risks involved at all levels.
One thing that nobody can be sure about is just how close to exhaustion and ‘breaking’ both sides are, and which side is closer. On paper Russia has the edge in terms of resources and population, but in practice it’s not that simple.
Another Mike.
Correct. And it pays for itself. That’s a two-fer.
As I have said before–sorry if it’s getting boring–Russia’s future activities depend on whether Putin thinks the ultimate end here is a “win”. It’s his decision alone; endless discussions of the matter by the most learned people are irrelevant unless they’re named “Putin”.
And Putin’s decision depends on his interpretation, not anybody else’s, of each particular factor.
The best we can say is that, practically no matter how differently Putin views things, he likely didn’t anticipate the US getting Uke raw materials as one of the results of his actions.
And it pays for itself.
Heard reports the Russians are reinforcing their installations along the border with Finland.
What are Putin’s objectives in going to war in Ukraine? Some of the early speculation was that he wants to head off Ukraine joining NATO. Another idea is that he is looking to protect Russian superiority in the supplying of mineral and energy resources in the region. The most generous reason is that he is looking to take back those areas of Ukraine that are largely populated by ethnic Russians. It makes sense that he is after all of these things; at least those three. To get him to end the war he will have to get what he wants or agree to abandon some or all of his objectives. The minerals deal, which creates a vested interest for the US in the conflict, is a good start. We’ll see what, if anything, comes next.
The evidence is sketchy
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51800
“. . .the country that is about to disappear. . .”
So much for trying to help a neighbor rid itself of nazis! Of course bombing schools and hospitals made that story highly suspect from the git-go. Someone needs to ask Bernie Sanders if he would call Russia an oligarchy, a despotism, or an aggressive colonialist empire-builder.
”Some of the early speculation was that he wants to head off Ukraine joining NATO.”
The Ukraine was and is ineligible to join NATO. To prevent the Ukraine from joining NATO all Putin had to do is sit on his ass and do nothing. Ergo, the war has nothing to do with NATO.
”Another idea is that he is looking to protect Russian superiority in the supplying of mineral and energy resources in the region.”
The war has cost Russia over a trillion dollars in losses and sanctions. It could have bought the mineral rights for a small fraction of that. Ergo, it’s not about the mineral rights.
”The most generous reason is that he is looking to take back those areas of Ukraine that are largely populated by ethnic Russians.”
Most of those ethnic Russian areas voted overwhelmingly to split with Russia and join the Ukraine, and that was before the Russian army raped thousands of their women, kidnapped tens of thousands of their children, killed hundreds of thousands of their people, and leveled many of their cities to the ground. It’s not about a joyous reunion of their people.
”What are Putin’s objectives in going to war in Ukraine?”
To extend Russia’s boundary to its natural western border in the Carpathian Mountains. Those mountains run from northeastern Romania to southern Poland.
mkent.
The results of the war aren’t the reasons for starting it. Putin, supposedly, expected a three-week special military operation. Those costs were, it would seem, within his view of acceptable. That he was wrong doesn’t retroactively become his views at the time.
Now he’s got a sunk cost and has to figure out what the results are, in terms of doing it again.
Good point as to natural borders.