In Wisconsin, a referendum to put the already-existent requirement for voter ID into the state constitution won but the Republican judicial candidate lost, in a state that Trump carried in 2024 – although he carried it narrowly. But the Democrat judge won by a large margin: 10%. The turnout was about 70% of what it had been in the 2024 general election.

I used the phrase “Democrat judge,” but the race is billed as “non-partisan.” However, it’s hard to imagine a more partisan race, although that fact is hidden by a law in Wisconsin requiring that Supreme Court candidates be listed on the ballot without party affiliation. That is an attempt to maintain the fiction that judges are above the partisan fray. Ha!

So I’m not sure how many Wisconsin voters even followed this closely enough to understand that Crawford, the winner, is a highly partisan Democrat, or what significance the race has on a national level in terms of redistricting to favor Democrats. And besides, I believe that by Wisconsin law ads also cannot designate political affiliation for Supreme Court candidates, as far as I know. Political junkies are aware of all of this, and endorsements and rallies also tell the tale. But most people are not political junkies.

The MSM is framing the result as a terrible defeat for Trump, and a warning to him. It’s certainly a defeat, but I don’t know whether it’s a warning or not, and neither do they. After all, there was a similar special election in Wisconsin in 2023, and the Democrat won although in 2024 Trump carried the state.

I believe that there is probably a significant percentage of Trump voters who are no-shows if he’s not on the ballot. Plus, special elections generally have low turnout and favor the most politically fanatic, who will always turn out. Plus, tons of money were poured into Wisconsin for the Democrat. Plus, apparently the GOP candidate was a lackluster campaigner. Plus, it probably was hard to convey to potential GOP voters that this state election for a judge could help lose the US House for the GOP and affect the course of the last two years of the Trump presidency.

That said, the loss is depressing and certainly not an encouraging sign.

How much did the Democrats spend in the race? This article mentions the topic but only gives a total amount and not a party breakdown:

Susan Crawford, who was endorsed by the Democratic Party, won the closely-watched Wisconsin Supreme Court race Tuesday night in what was the most expensive judicial election in American history.

What would have normally been a sleepy nonpartisan judicial race turned into an expensive battle between Crawford, a Dane County judge, and Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel, who was endorsed by the Republican Party. The campaigns and their supporters have spent more than $81 million, attracting endorsements and campaign appearances from Elon Musk, Vermont Democratic Sen. Bernie Sanders and other national political figures.

Here’s the BBC on the subject. The article says the total was 91 million, including 20 million by Musk “and groups affiliated with him.” What are these groups? And are we to conclude that the Democrats – and “groups affiliated with them” – spent the other 70 million? Who knows? The BBC isn’t telling, athough they list some of the names of the donors – the usual suspects:

Democrats, too, have rallied deep-pocketed donors in support of Crawford. Along with Soros, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman have reportedly contributed large sums. But their names haven’t inspired the same vitriol as Musk’s.

I’ve looked but so far I can’t find an article that says what the Democrats spent on the race.

This one mentions an interesting angle that may have been a factor:

Scott interviewed a Glendale voter who has voted for Trump three times, including in the most recent election. He said he’s backing liberal county judge Crawford in this race.

“He believes that President Trump, by supporting the overturning of Roe v. Wade, sent this issue back down to the states,” reported Scott. “He believes [Crawford] most aligns with his views on abortion rights.”

I see some speculation in the comments on other blogs that the Democrats won because of fraud. My opinion is that, although it’s possible that some fraud occurred, not only will we never know but the margin of victory was rather high for that and I think Crawford won.

One more thing that it’s important to keep in mind is that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz came within a hair of winning Wisconsin in 2024. They were incredibly poor candidates, and yet they came close to winning that election. Trump’s margins were broad but shallow, and I think it’s an enormous error to count the Democrats out.

Both Florida races were won by the GOP with very comfortable margins, although with the enormous margins of Trump wins in those districts last November. This makes sense, though, because the special elections were in red areas and it was pretty clear that the Republicans would win. So, many Trump voters probably figured: why bother? I think that’s a risky calculation, but I understand it.