Home » Open thread 4/2/2025

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Open thread 4/2/2025 — 31 Comments

  1. Compare and contrast (and try not to puke)….

    1.
    “The Real Politics of Israel Part 1: The U.S.-Israel Deep State”—
    https://pjmedia.com/rabbi-michael-barclay/2025/04/01/the-real-politics-of-israel-part-1-the-usisrael-deep-state-n4938506

    2.”The Real Politics of Israel Part 2: The Deep State Coup”—
    https://pjmedia.com/rabbi-michael-barclay/2025/04/01/the-real-politics-of-israel-part-2-the-deepstate-coup-n4938509

    3. Gadi Taub:
    “Netanyahu Takes On Israel’s Deep State;
    “The firing of domestic security chief Ronen Bar is the latest battle in the war at home”—
    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/netanyahu-takes-on-israels-deep-state-ronen-bar

    + Bonus (from the usual suspects)….
    “Unearthed FBI Chat Logs Reveal ‘Gag Order’ On Biden Laptop Exposé”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/unearthed-fbi-chat-logs-reveal-gag-order-biden-laptop-expose

    But wait! There’s more!! (The Democrats NEVER disappoint….)
    “…Organized ‘Bankrupt Tesla’ Group Tied To Formerly USAID-Funded Disinfo Queen”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/evil-people-organized-bankrupt-tesla-group-tied-formerly-usaid-funded-disinfo-queen

  2. Meanwhile, “Interesting Times”(TM) are about to get even more “interesting”….

    “Turkey Moves To Take Control Of Strategic Airbase In Central Syria”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkey-moves-take-control-strategic-airbase-central-syria

    + Bonus:
    Just another “Biden”-engineered crisis…
    (AKA how to create just another “Biden”-engineered FIFTH COLUMN…to be launched when needed)
    “Rolling Risk: Unvetted Migrants Behind The Wheel Of Big Rigs Threaten US Safety & Security”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rolling-risk-unvetted-migrants-behind-wheel-big-rigs-threaten-us-safety-security

    None of this, certainly, ought to be surprising….

    (Also see: Migrant Truck Drivers in Canada…)

    – – – – – – – –
    And…Not wishing to be caught flat-footed, we present: Artificial Intimidation….

    “AI Program Refuses To Generate Image Of Muhammad Due To ‘Credible Threat Of Violent Backlash'”—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/ai-program-refuses-generate-image-muhammad-due-credible-threat-violent-backlash

    Them AI dudes are SMARTER than I thought.
    Or should that be, “More Cautious”?
    (Or “Less Daring”?)

  3. I saw a brief interview on my financial new this morning with one of the authors (Amie) of this new political insider book.

    Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the White House
    by Jonathan Allen, Amie Parnes, et al.

    She claimed that it was Pelosi and Obama that pulled the plug on the Biden candidacy after that debate performance (unsurprising), but she also claims that Obama was adamant that Harris not replace him. Apparently, Jim Clyburn was the one that quickly cemented her candidacy.

    Thank you, Jim!

  4. The conservative political parties in Germany and France (e.g., Afd and LePen’s party) will never attain the ability to appoint a PM (or is it president?) or Chancellor unless in a national election they win more than 50% of the popular vote and thus win more than 50% of the parliamentary seats.
    A vote result like this is highly unlikely.

    Even if the Afd or LePen’s party win a plurality of the popular vote (say, 35% or 40% or even 45%) all the other political parties there refuse to entertain any sort of coalition with Afd / LePen, which prevents these two parties from forming a govt.

    So, in addition to using “lawfare” to keep these two conservative parties from forming a govt, they are also using “political-fare.”

    If the Afd /LePen parties actually received more than 50% of the popular vote (and theoretically able to form the govt), it would be very interesting to see what methods the other parties would use to prevent the Afd/LePen from forming a govt.

    There is no way the entrenched elites in France or Germany would ever permit any “far right” (I.e., conservative) party to form a govt.

  5. What flexibility

    https://x.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1907391884978262071

    The rest of the scam

    Allen and parnes have proven to be prevaricators in the past only when their lips move

    This is a limited hangout that hides the rest of the apparats operations

    Its easier to assemble center right coalitions in holland and italy like the western most corners of oceania

  6. I don’t know that it’s been mentioned here yet, Trump’s casual talk about a third term. But from 2000 to 2024 Democrats were arguing that Bill Clinton or Barack Obama could be chosen for VP and then succeed to a third term and that the 22nd Amendment allows this. These are easy to find. Even Eugene Volokh presented the case for it.

    If I were Trump, I would wait to be challenged on this and then refer to the Dems who made this argument in previous years. But I really don’t have much feeling for how Trump thinks, I admit.

  7. The conservative political parties in Germany and France (e.g., Afd and LePen’s party) will never attain the ability to appoint a PM (or is it president?) or Chancellor unless in a national election they win more than 50% of the popular vote and thus win more than 50% of the parliamentary seats.
    ==
    Not true and not true. French legislators are elected in single-member constituencies in two round contests. If they’re to be elected in round 1, they do require a majority of the validly cast votes. To be eligible for round 2, a candidate must have received at least 12.5% of the valid ballots in round 1; political parties can elect to remove their candidate from contention and non-partisan candidates can elect to withdraw. So, you have a set of surviving candidates competing in the second round. To win during the 2d round, a candidate need only secure a plurality. Please note also that France is one of about 15 European countries where in the head of state (in certain circumstances) functions as chief executive as well. The President of France is directly elected in a two-round vote, with the second round consisting of the top two performers in the 1st round. Please note that the firewall separating NR from the other parties on the right has collapsed and all but one are now willing to co-operate with NR. NR of late accounts for about 2/3 of the right-sector vote in national elections.
    ==
    In Germany, half the parliamentary seats are elected in single-member constituencies and half in a national list via d’Hondt proportional representation. AFAIK, a plurality is all that is necessary in constituency contests; political parties whose support is spread around evenly tend to do poorly in the constituency balloting all else being equal; that benefits the Christian Social Union which competes only in Bavaria. Also, the parties with the larger vote census win disproportionate shares of available seats. That now benefits AfD as it is the second largest party. In re the seats distributed via PR, a party must win at least 5% of the national list ballot to qualify for any. About 15% of the ballots cast went to parties which won no list seats and no constituency seats, so you would not require 50% to win an absolute majority. As in France, it is a reasonable wager the firewall is going to get harder to maintain the more AfD gains electoral strength. You are going to develop an element in the Christian Social Union and perhaps in the Christian Democratic Union which would rather co-operate with AfD than try to work within grand coalitions which have to include the post-communists or the Greens.

  8. Just read that Musk is stepping away from DOGO
    Don’t know what to make of it.

  9. NB, the German political class might just be arrogant enough to ban the AfD. There’s a constituency for that option among the German public, but it’s not a majority constituency. How the German body politic would react if it were made plain that German democracy is a sham one cannot say.

  10. Musk has gotten DOGE started well. Per the recent interview with Bret Baier, there are some very competent people involved to carry this forward. Since the left has made Musk the flash point, his withdrawal back to his businesses is probably best all around now.

  11. Musk, according to the White House, is not leaving nor considering it. The story, they said, is “garbage”.

  12. that scoop is really smelly, but it’s politico, also where allen and karnes came from,
    bezos post, axios politico, feathers of the same bird,

  13. Musk has no choice but to ride this tiger now. The donkey party must be utterly destroyed or they will come for Musk and anyone else that helped Trump. They have made that clear. They de-banked Barron FFS. They are evil.

  14. I don’t think that those making the public case against tariffs are doing that good a job. While I agree with those people that a trade war is lose-lose for both sides while it’s on, the losses are not symmetric, and you have to account for that.

    Our largest trade partners are Mexico, China, Canada, Germany, and Japan in that order. Mexico’s exports to the US are less than 2% of US GDP but they are 28% of Mexico’s GDP, so tariffs on Mexico’s exports to the US hurt them about 15 times as much as they do us. Likewise with Canada, their exports to the US are less than 2% of US GDP but are 18% of Canada’s GDP, so tariffs on Canada’s export to the US hurt them about ten times as much as they hurt us.

    (China, Germany and Japan won’t be very inconvenienced, as they are much less dependent on exports to the US relative to their size.)

    Consequently, I don’t expect the “trade war” to last very long or inconvenience us much. I think there’s a lot of reasons why tariffs are often not a good idea, but it’s not sufficient to say “Smoot Hawley” and pretend it’s still 1930. Smoot-Hawley rates were more like 60% anyway. And while people like to blame it for the Great Depression, that’s narrative and handwaving, not showing work.

  15. RIP Val Kilmer

    Also mentioned in last night’s Richard Chamberlain discussion.

    He was an uneven actor, or at least an uneven chooser of roles, but when he was on, he was unique and splendid. Eh, he was also a bit crazy. I’ll miss him.

    * The Doors (1991) — Uncanny evocation of the Lizard King, Jim Morrison. Even the band couldn’t tell Kilmer’s singing from Morrison’s.
    * Tombstone (1993) — “You’re my huckleberry.” Unforgettable as Doc Holliday.
    * Heat (1995) — Kilmer played a solid secondary role, but the Pacino-De Niro duel was great and everyone should see this one.
    * The Salton Sea (2002) — Written off as Tarantinoesque neo-noir, but still great, weird and one of my faves.
    * Spartan (2004) — Special Forces guy up against a corrupt President. David Mamet at the height of his powers.
    * Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (2005) — Wacky meta-noir-black comedy. Kilmer as a sort of island of sanity as a gay detective, while Robert Downey Jr. transitions from a small-time crook to a Hollywood player. Complications ensue.

  16. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham · Follow
    7h ·
    I join millions of movie fans today in mourning the passing of Val Kilmer, a Hollywood icon and a cherished member of our New Mexico community. Val’s remarkable career brought legendary characters to life – from Batman to Jim Morrison to Doc Holliday – captivating audiences worldwide with his extraordinary talent and versatility.
    And for nearly two decades, Val made his home in northern New Mexico, first in Tesuque and then on a ranch along the Pecos River. These beautiful spaces provided Val with peace and tranquility away from Hollywood’s spotlight. Beyond acting, his artwork graced our local galleries, demonstrating his embrace of New Mexico not just as a residence, but as a place to create. Val once said about filming here: “I love filming in New Mexico just because of the variety of the landscapes and the character of the people.”

    On behalf of all New Mexicans, I extend our condolences to Val’s family, friends and fans worldwide. His spirit will remain a lasting part of our state’s legacy.

    I used to hang out with friends in Tesuque in the ’80’s.

    I concur with huxley. Tombstone is awesome. But no Top Gun??

    Kiss Kiss Bang Bang is a fun but uneven film. It was Shane Black’s first direction effort. Black is the hyper successful playwright for the Lethal Weapon franchise and other films. I like costar Michelle Monaghan too, who is a fellow Iowan.

    I enjoyed Real Genius very much.
    A weird Martha Coolidge comedy supposedly set in Cal Tech. I met the physicist who was a Cal Tech grad and a laser expert who was a consultant on the film.

  17. I used to hang out with friends in Tesuque in the ’80’s.

    TommyJay:

    Totally cool!

    Sure, Top Gun is great, I’ve forgotten Real Genius, but I related more to Kilmer’s eccentric roles.

    I coudn’t say specifically what It Kilmer had, but he definitely had It.

    FWIW, Val Kilmer was part of the very first graduating class of the Juilliard School’s Drama Division. He was accepted at age 17, making him the youngest person ever admitted to Juilliard’s drama program at the time.

    Kilmer started happening young.

  18. I did not know about Juilliard.

    I saw there was a “documentary” movie available on Amazon called “Val”, consisting of Kilmer’s extensive personal video-logs pieced together into some supposedly coherent film. I was tempted to watch it, but haven’t.

  19. The ballet photo session is quite neat. Easily digestible in those four minutes, and I like the effect of those interspersed stills. I assume the background music is to set a good mood for the ballerina.

  20. Howard Lutnick is the new Commerce Department Secretary.
    I have not seen his key role as a longtime 30 years friend of Trump explained or heralded before.

    Here he does this with the “All-In Podcast” (Silicon Valley Red Pilled entrepreneurs).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=182ckTL2KBA

    A few highlights:

    —Gratis (Federal) vendors for completely by-passing red tape that defeats urgently needed help! Explained

    —Before the last election, he recruited Elon Musk — despite not knowing him — to head up DOGE, and first adopted the name.

    —He also prized the influential role of Campaign Director Suzy Wile, getting her slotted to become WH Chief of Staff.

    —Insights into the faked GDP numbers Biden Administration kept to purport false economic growth to prime his re-election, which Lutnick is presently rectifying.

    After the election, Lutnick heads up the transition team (Trump is too suspicious to prepare in advance), and he explains setting up an office in Mara Lago for group meetings with wall style graphics and Zoom style video calls. And overseeing top personnel selection.

    Howard Lutnick has led Cantor Fitzgerald’s post 9-11 recovery. This investment banks’ office staff was nearly total wipe out — 90% were lost in the first tower to fall because they worked from the top 5 floors.

    Fascinating man, Howard Lutnick. I’m very impressed. Salesman — sure. Provocative and powerful thinker and presenter on Trump’s side, DEFINITELY.

    TOPICS AND TIME STAMPS
    (0:00) Chamath and Friedberg welcome Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick!
    (1:10) Howard describes his 30+ year relationship with President Trump and his road from business to politics
    (14:44) Running Trump’s transition team, DOGE origin story, what it’s like working for Trump
    (38:01) Balancing the budget and fixing GDP
    (52:21) Tariff history and strategy, global trade
    (1:10:34) Trump Cards, building better government software, AI thoughts
    (1:22:49) Sovereign Wealth Fund strategy
    (1:37:16) How his family reacted to his new role

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