Trump: loose cannon or wily negotiator?
Commenter “Hubert” states my own thoughts on the matter quite well when he writes:
Now comes news that Trump is threatening Putin with more sanctions to get him to the negotiating table. Unlike mkent, I suspect there is method to Trump’s behavior. There better be, because mkent is correct when he says that Trump is disrupting the entire postwar and post-Cold War security system. I think it badly needed to be disrupted, but this is turning into a queasy-making rollercoaster ride. Dangerous times; high stakes.
The question is whether Trump actually is a loose cannon or whether there is method to his madness – and if the latter, whether that method will work.
Is Trump talking about leaving NATO? Ending America’s nuclear protection entirely for Europe? Withdrawing all troops from Europe? If so, I haven’t seen it. What I do see is that Trump is aiming to have Europe participate more in its own defense. The idea is that we are spread too thin. As Hubert also writes:
I think it was the Polish PM who recently pointed out that “Europe (450 million people) is demanding that the United States (300 million people) defend it against Russia (140 million people).” That’s ridiculous and unsustainable. Mkent referred on the other thread to Tusk talking about maybe developing a Polish nuclear deterrent, like that’s a bad thing. I think it’s a good thing. It shows that some of the Europeans are getting serious about their own defense. As for mkent’s fear that proliferation will inevitably lead to WWIII and nukes flying all over the world, I would point to India and Pakistan. Two nuclear powers that hate each other’s guts but have somehow managed to avoid going to all-out war. Strategist Bernard Brodie rightly called nuclear weapons “the absolute weapon” in his 1946 book of the same name. By that token, they’re the ultimate deterrent.
This is one of a host of reasons why I’m glad I’m not president. I could not even begin to make decisions of that magnitude.
However, change is inherently frightening because all change can backfire. 9/11 sparked a big change here, because I don’t think that without it George W. Bush would have started wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. 9/11 changed the trajectory of his entire presidency in terms of foreign policy. And during Obama’s presidency, foreign policy changed a great deal also, and I’m hard-pressed to find that any of it was for the better; same for Biden and company. All of those events made it clear that US foreign policy could change on a dime between one president and another.
Western European leaders can’t stand Trump. But they felt the same way during his first term. They laughed at him when he warned them they were too dependent on Russian energy sources – a warning which turned out to be very prescient indeed. But Western Europeans already had a great deal of resentment and contempt for the US even prior to Trump. Remember that cowboy George W. Bush in 2001?:
George W. Bush is highly unpopular with the publics of the major nations of Western Europe. By wide margins, people in Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy all disapprove of his handling of international policy, and the American president does not inspire much more confidence in these countries than does Russian President Vladimir Putin.
More than seven-in-ten of those in each country say Bush makes decisions based entirely on U.S. interests, and most think he understands less about Europe than other American presidents. In that regard, Bush’s foreign policy approval rating runs 40-60 percentage points below former President Bill Clinton’s, when judged in retrospect.
These are the principal findings of a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center …
And Reagan in 1981:
A remark by President Reagan that he could envision a nuclear war limited to Europe has unleashed a political storm among Europeans that U.S. and allied officials sought yesterday to bring under control.
Also in 1982:
President Reagan will meet presidents, prime ministers, a pope and a queen during his trip to Europe for the NATO summit, but will also be exposed to thousands of angry Europeans who despise him — and some who may try to kill him.
In Paris, the president’s first stop on his 10-day, 4-nation tour beginning Wednesday, grand boulevards and winding alleyways alike are lined with posters showing a combat commando gripping a submachine gun and saying ‘the terrorist Reagan must be welcomed with hatred, raised fists and loaded arms.’
Bombs exploded last week at the Rome office of Pan American airlines and an insurance company with U.S. links. The communist group that claimed responsibility for the blast said, ‘This is our greeting to the hangman Reagan.’
The president’s personal safety has been most directly threatened in West Germany, cradle of the European peace movement that views Reagan as a warmongering nuclear cowboy.
We survived that. Hopefully we’ll survive this.
But I’ve never been keen on roller coaster rides. Trump’s unpredictability is both a strength and a weakness. But if he threatens too many times and his bluff is called and he doesn’t follow through, he loses the power engendered by his threats. Plus, he can get into a macho-threat contest with some people and win, but Putin couldn’t care less, IMHO.
However, Trump has pulled many rabbits out of many hats before – so sit tight during the bumpy ride.
ADDENDUM:
I just noticed these:
Ultimately all such radical change has to be ratified, institutionalized and regularized or else they will fail. This must happen through elections and captured in institutional reform. But that is some months away. Meanwhile it's a nailbiting ride.
— wretchardthecat (@wretchardthecat) March 7, 2025
The cultural shifts that have been going on for the last decades could equally be characterized as a Revolution without the Terror and what is happening is counter-revolution.
— Red_Rabbit ? (?) (@Red_Rabbit_001) March 9, 2025
It’s hard to trust and at times even believe what Trump says. His stream of consciousness rambling combined with denials are enough to drive the most patient person insane. However, in the case of Ukraine I believe he is sincere in wanting to at least put a stop to the fighting. Some of what he says publicly are probably feint positions akin to rope-a-dope tactical maneuvers. I want to believe he has some master strategy including fall back positions. And as I’ve said here before, it’s very possible that peace by itself in Ukraine is not what he wants. Maybe he’s using it to achieve other more important objectives.
Friends and fighting men of the Danaans, henchmen of Ares,
be men now, dear friends, remember your furious valour.
Do we think there are others who stand behind us to help us?
Have we some stronger wall that can rescue men from perdition?
We have no city built strong with towers lying near us, within which
we could defend ourselves and hold off this host that matches us.
We hold position in this plain of the close-armoured Trojans,
bent back against the sea, and far from the land of our fathers.
Salvation’s light is in our hands’ work, not the mercy of battle. (15.733-741)
Australia has about 26.6 million people.
A total military, active and reserve of 89,000
The US has about 330,000,000 million people.
Total active and reserve military ( not counting civilian DOD) of 2,100,000.
On a rough per capita basis, if Australia had the same population as the US at 330 million, it’s military size extrapolated from its current size would only be about 1.1 Million men. Slightly more than half of the US military.
Most of our allies are undermanned compared to the US.
We have a hole card that no other nation has. Our fleet of nuclear subs. They have the capability of destroying most of any enemy’s cities/defense capabilities even if the enemy strikes CONUS first. It’s a major deterrent that hardly anyone talks about these days. Trump is willing to be more out there because he knows all our adversaries know/understand this.
There are two ways to deter Russia. One way is by using our military power. But to what end? Destroy Russia and what then? Occupy the country? Rebuild it ala Germany and Japan? Or let it rot ala Afghanistan and Iraq? No good choices.
The other way is economically. This can be done. Russia has an economy based on oil and gas exports. Force the price of oil and gas down and their income goes with it. Block their ability to use the international banking settlements system and they will be in dire straits rather quickly. Unlike Obama/Biden, Trump is willing to consider these economic tools and Putin knows it.
Will Putin go nuclear? That’s the fear, and many quake in their boots when he rattles his nukes. My opinion is no, because he knows about our second-strike capability. And he faces the combined nuclear power of France, Greta Britain, and the USA.
Would China join Russia? Maybe. They might also decide to sit back and stay unscathed while the other powers destroy themselves.
Anyway, al nuclear armed countries
know that nuclear war is basically the end of civilization as we have known it. That’s why none have even though seriously about using it.
Given Western European’s hate for Reagan, Bush and Trump… why continue to place Americans at grave potential risk by offering protection to such a collection of ingrates?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vEEh0GF_C8
Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy four years.
The markets hate uncertainty, and it seems that day after trading day, it goes down. On the other hand, yesterday’s trading had a big morning sell-off, followed by a complete reversal, and ended slightly up. And overall, the declines are nowhere near as big as 2007 and 2008. Yet.
________
I think it was the Polish PM who recently pointed out that “Europe (450 million people) is demanding that the United States (300 million people) defend it against Russia (140 million people).
The population of Europe was a trivia question my team tried to answer recently. I was thinking of the 450M number. The trivia answer and Wikipedia has it at 745M. Which definition of “Europe” is used in each I wonder?
I think he maybe did it as a kind of show, so he could pretend there was a real negotiation going on when really everything has basically been settled already in Putin’s favor: no Nato in Ukraine, Russia keeps the four oblasts?
Not sure about the connection between what Trump says and what he does.
Whatever the Ukraine outcome, the optics are going to be important Putin. Hope Trump knows that.
Europe re America is similar to Democrats re DJT: Nothing the second do will ever satisfy the first.
Geoffrey Britain:
Try shouting at clouds.
Russia calls them The Decadent West. Groffrey does that give you a warm glow about Putin? But don’t get to comfy, you are part of The Decadent West too.
Sorry to have to break it to you old man.
Geoffrey is going to start the 13 minutes to Armageddon panic again. Now, it is the French nuclear umbrella over Europe, since the dreaded NATO nuclear threat to Russia is questionable under President Trump. Before it was potential French cruise missiles that could reach precious Moscow in 13 minutes, if launched from that den of perfidy, Ukraine.
Should US nuclear targeting be reassigned to Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys? After all they are ungreatful and pose the real threat?
TommyJay:
As far as I know, Russia west of the Urals has long been considered part of Europe. But even if you take the Russian part away from that 745 figure, you still don’t get down to 450. So it’s a puzzlement.
Geoffrey Britain:
The traditional answer has been “because we are protecting them from being taken over by something far more dangerous to us and probably to the entire world.”
It’s not sheer unselfish altrusim.
The 450 million figure is almost certainly the population of the European Union.
For those who don’t click links:
The EU is almost but not quite overlapping with NATO. The most prominent European exceptions would be Austria and Ireland (in the EU, not in NATO) and the United Kingdom, Norway, and Turkey (in NATO, not in the EU).
Any of the other stats I’ve ever given here on Europe vs Russia are based on the EU: for example, the EU economy is $29 trillion vs Russia’s $7.1 trillion. A few countries are in neither, like Switzerland.
Trump: loose cannon or wily negotiator?
Trump: Wile E. Coyote or Wile E. Negotiator.
Sorry. That’s just the way my mind works.
I have no idea what is going on. The pro Ukraine accounts are running around with their hair on fire, and the pro Russian accounts are the usual bunch of false victories which culminate in nothing much. There isn’t a reliable view through the political fog. I wish I could trust Trump on this, but I can’t say that I do. He might get trapped in the LBJ domain error — what works in politics/business might not work in war. And Zelenskyy didn’t help himself, what was he thinking? Anyway, it would be nice if Trump, or Waltz, or Rubio, or Hegseth would tell us a bit about what is going on…
Oh, well, I look at the mountains and think that they will still be there long after I am gone and the war is over. There is some peace in that.
Could be much worse, could be Kamalla.
I think Russia is about spent and I wonder how much of their nuke arsenal is Potemkin. Even if the EU massively increases spending it will take 5-10 years to be seen. After five years Poland has received how many of their puny F-35 order? Two or some such?
How about Controlled Cannon.
Poland is massively building its Military. It does take time.
That said, I have the impression the Trump wants to replace Zelenskyy. I think that would be a big mistake, shades of JFK and Diem.
Wouldn’t be prudent at all.
What Chuck said (@10:14 pm)
(Unless one is inclined to believe the Global Corrupt Media, whose sole purpose, it seems to me, has been—and continues to be—to serve up ferocious anti-Trump hatred, demonization and hysteria, 24/7.)
They haven’t exactly covered themselves in glory over the past umpteen years, but believe ’em if ye wish.
Count me out.
The die was cast for the breakup of the post-WWII American Global Order long ago. As Peter Zeihan likes to put it, we Americans bribed up an alliance to fight the USSR. The Global Order was a defense policy for us, not an economic one as it was for the rest of the world. When the USSR fell, the AGO fell into a sort of zombie state. Way too many people had invested their lives and net worth in continuing it for it to go away quickly or quietly. GHWB and Clinton tried to reanimate it as a way to more fully integrate China and other states into the world community. That worked to a degree but the End of History theory that everybody in the world was going to become some flavor of WEIRD and practice war no more literally crashed and burned on 9/11/2001. The Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts showed that we would need to maintain a Cold War size military indefinitely, something that the End of History theory said we wouldn’t need to do, because nobody else in the world was going to step up to help maintain the peace unless they were directly threatened. Even then, Ukraine is proving that even direct threats don’t lessen the reliance of other nations, especially in Europe, on US involvement.
Jon baker again demonstrates the misuse of statistics, numbers applied without considering relevance to the question.
Question: What are the threats to Australian national security?
How large a military does Australia need to deal with that threat?
What mix of forces is needed to deal with that threat?
So focusing on manpower and population Jon baker give us a number. Which on other threads he has decided is too small. Because, who knows.
Australia as far as I know does not have the role imposed on its national defense that the US has assumed since 1945.
What does Jon baker want all those “diggers” that will “man-up” to do? Come on there must be a pithy statistic to “answer” that. If the Australians greatly expand their Navy as a deterrent to China (beyond nuclear submarines) it probablly won’t give a big enough increase in bean counted bodies to satisfy him.
The Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts showed that we would need to maintain a Cold War size military indefinitely, something that the End of History theory said we wouldn’t need to do,
==
It did not and we did not. What might make it prudent to maintain a military of that dimension would be China.
It is interesting you brought up the anti-American protests in Europe during Reagan’s time, Neo. It is well known now how much that movement was incited, organized and paid for by the Soviet Union and its security outfits: at least 95% (with the remaining 5% of the usual useful idiots).
Geoffrey is addressing another question, entirely, take England, it has imported an army of Saracens who would mostly like roundup their fellow citizens, than actually fight the Russians, the service weed out anyone who has a traditional love of England, so who is the real pressing threat,
prove to me, that our military properly employed it’s forces in either Afghanistan or Iraq, yes there is always the trope
‘we won every battle, but we lost the war,’ and one can’t think the Kabul capitulation was nothing but a defeat, the arrest of Sharifullah, the Islamic Cell leader
notwithstanding,
If China doesn’t do something soon, it won’t be able to. Half of their population is 40 or over, few children coming along to replace them, no longer the world’s largest population and declining fast.
No one wants to hear it, but the primary danger to the West in these days of low fertility and late marriage is the Global South, and our own governments are the ones letting them in. A Cold War size military won’t do anything–and who would be manning it?
We won’t be conquered by China or Russia; rather, we’ll be Muslims and Africans and South Americans living inside the lines on the map where European and North American countries used to be, and the indigenous peoples of Europe will be living in nursing homes.
An now an Australian perspective:
The Changing War in Ukraine – The U.S. Aid Freeze, Momentum & how the War has changed in 2025 – Perun
On the numbers, here’s the video of Polish PM Tusk from a few days ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yX06zhJf20o
Tusk actually said 500 million Europeans, which suggests that Niketas is correct: Tusk was referring to the EU figure. It makes his point even more compelling.
On Neo’s question: Trump is good at sizing up his interlocutors and driving a hard bargain. He is also funny. His style plays well domestically. I don’t think his shtick–the shoot-from-the-hip, smart-ass comments, the insults, the discursive thinking-out-loud, the bewildering reversals and bizarro walkbacks (“Did I say that? I couldn’t have said that” etc.), and all of it done in public–transfers well to the international arena. To put it mildly. Even if he’s right (e.g. about getting the Europeans to finally shell out for their own defense), his communication style makes him look unhinged and unserious. I wish he would let Vance or Rubio do the talking. But of course the Euros detest Vance now too.
That’s what dismayed me about the clash with Zelensky in the Oval Office. Trump and Vance were right to push back against Zelensky’s attempt to manipulate them. But doing it in public made them both look smaller. Leaders have to know how to express anger in a way that communicates strength. Eisenhower, who reputedly had a volcanic temper, was a master at this. So was Reagan. Trump’s and Vance’s anger was justified and quite genuine (just watch Trump getting wound up about Russiagate), but the way they expressed it made them look peevish.
But: Trump has certainly gotten the Europeans’ attention in a way that nobody else has been able to. He has shocked them into facing reality. See this interview with former Estonian president Toomas Hendrik Ilves on MSNBC:
https://www.msnbc.com/ali-velshi/watch/fmr-estonian-president-democracy-a-curse-word-among-some-in-the-u-s-233292869973
Ilves hates Trump but is making the same point Trump and Vance are making: that Europe has to get serious about taking responsibility for its own defense, and fast. In fact, Ilves has been pounding that point for years–in vain. Now his hate-object has driven it home for him. Ilves was also unhappy about the Baltic States having been left out of the big security confab in London last week–a symptom of divisions within the European alliance. By the way, Ilves’ Bluesky channel is a good window into elite European opinion about Trump and NATO:
https://bsky.app/profile/ilvestoomas.bsky.social
It appears that (some of?) the western European leaders now regard the United States as an enemy state.
Here is the link to the Perun video.
The Changing War in Ukraine – The U.S. Aid Freeze, Momentum & how the War has changed in 2025 – Perun
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QhTjj_2Nldc
Hubert, uncharacteristicy, lights his hair on fire?
I wish he’d make up his mind on tariffs. Every other day it changes.
Other than that, thoroughly pleased.
that is if one misunderstands democracy, as what the people want, this was the bad off broadway production, that they offered for the last four years,
tariffs are a switchblade against european censorship,
against sectoral dominance of certain produvts, and issues North and South of us,
@Art Deco … Other than Britain, who actually showed up to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan? Everybody else in the world was (at least at that time) more than willing to let the US do the heavy lifting, and that only looks like it might be beginning to change. Before that you had the example of the 1990s Balkan conflict when Europe still had significant forces left over from the Cold War. Yes, some European and other forces will show up and wave their flags but all the significant work, especially logistics and LOC support, wind up being a US responsibility.
The other part of that point is the selling of the AGO continuation was one where it would primarily be our ‘soft power’ that mitigated conflicts so we would get a ‘peace dividend’
@Hubert:It appears that the western European leaders now regard the United States as an enemy state.
I have to assume that’s hyperbole, because if it isn’t, that’s so vile we never should have been protecting such people for so long. If anything would kill off American sentiment about protecting Europe, that would do it.
The Trump era has been good for pulling masks off.
This is the Tusk quote, per Politico.eu.
“Our deficit has been the lack of the will to act, having no confidence, and sometimes even cowardice. But Russia will be helpless against united Europe. It’s striking but it’s true. Right now, 500 million Europeans are begging 300 million Americans for protection from 140 million Russians who have been unable to overcome 50 million Ukrainians for three years.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/
no serious person on that conveyor belt of fools, in fact the followers remove all doubt,
I looked it up, the UK had the largest contingent in Afghanistan, the French the second largest, the Germans the third, and it is more negligible from there, and this was an Article 5 intervention,
so are these wiseguys going to buy Military equipment from,
China, they really aren’t that clever at all,
Om: fire? No fire here. Also no hair.
Niketas: check out the items in Ilves’ Bluesky feed. “The Trump era has been good for pulling masks off.” Yes.
Christopher B: thanks for the full Tusk quote. He’s right. The problem is that there isn’t a united Europe. I lived in Germany for five years. I have great affection for Germany. But I know that Germans will only fight for three things: their six-week annual vacations in Mallorca and the Maldives, their bank accounts, and their inalienable right to 4:00 PM Kaffee-und-Kuchen. I exaggerate, but not by much.
My favorite Eisenhower story was about some action and his advisors asked what they should do about the press. Eisenhower said not to worry, he would baffle them with bullshit. The man knew what he was doing.
@Hubert:Germans will only fight for three things: their six-week annual vacations in Mallorca and the Maldives, their bank accounts, and their inalienable right to 4:00 PM Kaffee-und-Kuchen.
Very good things those are, but no one will die for them. In any event when they’re retired, a Turk or a Syrian nursing assistant might smother them with a pillow rather than listen to their complaints…
Some more examples of Eisenhower’s masterly restraint:
And I think we’ve paid too little attention to his warnings about the capture of policy by the military-industrial complex and the capture of scientific integrity by government money:
the MIC was a necessary tool, but as with every instrument, you cannot let it be your master, another example, widespread unionism
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/03/09/surprise-strike-impacts-40000-passengers-at-hamburg-airport/
the grand bargain that adenauer, struck long since broke down,
one would think that might have been something the more uncouth Patton might have said, he was also a blunt instrument, that probably didn’t fit in peacetime, see his part in the Bonus March in 1930
this is the larger problem, with the constraints the military has operated on at lease since 1945, the Enemy is not so restrained,
Where does it say that those two options are mutually exclusive ?
then they dig themselves deeper into the trench, and bob’s your uncle,
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/03/09/open-borders-eu-saw-over-one-million-asylum-seeker-requests-in-2024/
some governments are somewhat more diligent, at least in the attempt, then others, consider Hungary which is the bete noire of Strasbourg,
Niketas: I quoted Eisenhower’s warning about government money leading to government control of scientific inquiry to the former VP for research at my former university. Oddly, he didn’t appreciate it. Glad I’m out of that racket.
The Global Corrupt Media and the corrupt politicians and organizations it faithfully, if odiously, serves lies by commission and by omission (as well as by the copious use of strategic half-truths and diabolical misrepresentations).
IOW, what has the WEF and its carefully-embedded network of global cohorts (for example, Biden”, UK Labour and Canada Labour parties, much of the EU, the UN, the WHO, significant swaths of academia—and their Corrupt Global Media boosters) been hiding from us? And WHY?
Here’s what they’ve been hiding (i.e., lying about) WRT tariffs:
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/tariffs-good-trump-china
Once one understands their utter dishonesty, their venality and the s**tload of corruption they believe it is their moral snd ethical duty to COVER UP, one can then understand why AMERICA—more precisely, DJT—is their fatal and enduring enemy.
Casting DJT as the villain, as global ogre, is, of course, a necessary part of the coverup.
But criminals gotta do what criminals gotta do, especially when so much is at stake.
NB. I want Putin pushed back to the pre-war border AND his ugly nose bloodied as much as the next person. THE PROBLEM HERE IS that this war and the way it’s been—and is being—portrayed and representated reeks exactly in the way that the “war against COVID” reeked (and still does).
I can certainly be persuaded of that notion, some facile commentators have drawn the parallel, well the McKinley tariff 1890, and the Depression, three years later, but what was going on in Europe’s economies along with ours,
in college I read Wanniski who was the ideosyncratic supply sider and anti-tariff activist, I read the takedowns of Fallows and Van Wolferen, and well
obviously, le bon ton roule
but, we had ever made labor this permeable as tariffs kept things at bay
the recessions of 1857 and 1873 had little to do with that,
of course we were never at Brobagdinian levels of debt before, ostensibly in peace time,
of course the statist prophets like Galbraith assumed well there wasn’t enough government involveemente obviously
om – It could be Kamala? Sure, but it could have been DeSantis too. Then we would would likely have the same clean-out of the administrative agencies (and probably in a way much more likely to stick in the long term.) We would have the same realism on Ukraine. But without the the idiotic threatening of Canada or the indecorous shouting match with Zelensky in the Oval Office, or any of the rest of the Trumpian crazy.
FWIW – Trump is a one trick pony as a negotiator. He plays crazy. No one else does that, or expects that from an American president. They also assume he is stupid because only an idiot would say some of the crazy things he does. Of course, he is not stupid (but neither is he a deep thinker). It’s an act. I suspect that it was a very successful act for him in the worlds of show business and Manhattan real estate.
He’s kind of like a good knuckleballer in MLB. One comes along about once a generation, and always has a lot of early success until hitters adapt to the unexpected. Then the knuckleballer gets hit hard.
That’s where I worry about Trump. Xi is not as emotionally fragile as American Democrats. And it’s not that hard of a game to figure out.
@Art Deco … Other than Britain, who actually showed up to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan?
==
You can look up the inventory from each participant as well as I can. This question is irrelevant to your contention. We did not after 2001 build a military which enrolled available manpower or consumed resources on a scale matching that of the Cold War military and it was not necessary that we do that to achieve the goals we had in Iraq and Afghanistan or, indeed anywhere else.
R.A. Dickey could get away with mediocre four-seamers from time to time because batters were expecting knucklers. 16 yr career. Phil and Joe Niekro had 24 and 22 yr careers respectively. Charlie Hough, 24 yr career. Hoyt Wilhelm, 20 yrs. Wilber Wood, 17 yrs. Tim Wakefield, 19 yrs. Dutch Leonard, 20 yrs.
Knucklers extend careers, and it’s not because they’re getting shellacked: it’s because even the catchers have a hard time keeping up with the movement. They aren’t, however, easy pitches to throw for strikes, or even simply throw consistently at all.
well did we need a military that large, but smaller more capable units, that could tackle more agile adaptable foes, the Caucasus looks largely more like the mass miilitary that characterized the Great War, and that is not reassuring
we have over a generation discarded many of the tools in the physical and intellectual sphere, that would allow us to prevail against Xi mass deindustrialization, that makes us vulnerable to raw materials and critical parts shortages, a media and educational framework, that is hostile to the idea of a confident America, from which we see a military and intelligence establishment
that seems more on the other side, than ours, some needed reforms are underway but is the Congress really willing to put up, will the Courts provide another set of tripwires, questions of this nature,
Elbridge Colby has really thought on these subjects, unlike his grandfather he looks strategically at what are the priorities, will he be confirmed
with some of the cobwebs that litter the PEntagon be cut down,
sdferr – Maybe its a bad analogy then. The only knuckleballer that I really remember is Wakefield. He did have quite a long career, but had a few stinker seasons in there when he either wasn’t throwing well or batters figured out what he was doing. He helped pitch the Pirates to the post season a few times in the early 90’s, but looked so washed up that they outright released him a few years later. He then popped up again with Boston a few years later. And even then, he still had up and down seasons. That’s what I was getting at. Again, maybe not a perfect analogy.
Re: Trump – I think a lot of his success rests on the emotional fragility of Democrats. Also, the “crazy” act is based on unpredictability. It becomes a lot less effective when the player’s moves are limited, such as in larger geopolitical matters. (Hence the reference to Xi.) I wonder if that isn’t at least part of the reason that Trump is upping the level of crazy in international affairs with tariffs, threats to annex Canada, and the like. I guess we’ll see if it works.
It might be a disfunctional analogy on certain parameters, but not on others.
If a guy can throw actual knucklers he’s going to be successful, no matter his age, no matter his pitch velocity etc.
If, on the other hand, a guy thinks he’s going to throw a knuckler but the damned thing just spins slowly to the plate, that pitch is gonna be hammered near every time. That guy is going to quit in short order as he realizes his pitch is going to spin no matter what he does, but then he, by definition, isn’t throwing knucklers but is throwing meatballs.
CC™ returns. DeSantis never got far in 2024 so to pine about what could have been and would be happening is a waste of your limited time on this earth. But you be you.
It still isn’t Kamala (and wacky Walz). Thank God.
On the population question, Russia has only 20% more people than Japan. Germany and France together have more people than Russia, 152 million vs 146 million.
Their economies are $10.4 trillion vs Russia’s $6.9 trillion, both figures PPP.
France has its own nuclear arsenal as well.
Include Italy, and you have an entity with 210 million people and an economy of $15 trillion, 50% more people than Russia and twice the GDP.
Germany, Italy, and France are the #1, #2, #3 manufacturers in Europe. They have all they need to be secure against anyone they’re threatened by, provided they have the will. If any significant part of the rest of Europe can be arsed to pitch in, it’s no contest.
According to the Oms of the World, our allies need not match us in any metric for defense. Maybe South Korea being an exception???? Somehow , with our 36 Trillion in debt we are supposed to just keep disproportionately preparing to defend a bunch of slackers 80 years after the end of WW2…..many of whom are handing their nations over to Muslims, anyway.
Hubert:
“I know that Germans will only fight for three things: their six-week annual vacations in Mallorca and the Maldives, their bank accounts, and their inalienable right to 4:00 PM Kaffee-und-Kuchen. I exaggerate, but not by much.”
My wife is German and my 91 year old father-in-law probably would fight to the death over Kaffee-und-Kuchen. Years ago we were driving to New Orleans from Washington DC and we were in the middle of nowhere Mississippi when precisely at 4 he insisted we stop for K und K. We ended up in a 7-11 and got coffee and some old pastry. Not exactly what he had in mind.
As for the rest of the Germans below 90, I don’t think they would really fight for much of anything.
Uh huh.
Compare and contrast:
“Europe Regularly Supplies Ukraine With Outdated & Defective Weapons”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/military/europe-regularly-supplies-ukraine-outdated-defective-weapons
“The Death of Europe”—
https://hotair.com/john-stossel/2025/03/09/the-death-of-europe-n3800560
“These Are The Nations With The Highest (And Lowest) Marginal Income Tax Rates”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/these-are-nations-highest-and-lowest-marginal-income-tax-rates
This whole charade is to get the Evil Trump—by hook or by crook, by shaming or naming, or whatever it takes—to continue funding whatever “Biden” funded before him. Especially, funding Europe.
(So what is it exactly that “Biden” funded? Remind me….)
File under: Status Quo Ho! (Can you smell the scam?)
They don’t call it the European UNION for nothin’….
https://instapundit.com/707063/
Dunno about the Chermans in isolation, yet taking Europe’s bigs together (and quoting Powerline here) “France, Germany, Italy and the U.K. are now backing the Egyptian/Arab plan to rebuild Gaza at a cost of $53 billion, while leaving the Gazans in place.” it looks to me like they’ll fight for the right to keep on a-hatin’ jews.
Good damn way to edge right on out of my toleration, though I’m not any object of their thought whatsoever.
Jon baker:
Come on Jon shurely you have some random statisic to bolster your “always” argument. Oh, and the Muslims. Yep, the Germans and Brits F’ed up with that internal domestic policy. Not like we did with all the Somalis in Minnesota.
You are aware there are a significant number of Muslims in the Philippines, and some of them have been in open (armed) conflict with the Philippine government for a long, long time (see Black Jack Pershing). But the Philippines aren’t Great Britain; that would be apples and coconuts. You do understand that mangled metaphor?
“Man up” Jon, show the data!
P.S. And as Turtler has mentioned Putin has an interesting policy on Muslims in The Russian Federation, Chechins are toots fine as long as they are killing Ukrainians (Christians).
they think they will hold the Crocodile off at bay, shall we look at Door # 2,
that louche fellow houllebecq, might have been right among some things, perhaps not on the timeline,
Among the newcomers, that have landed in eurabia, how many are well disposed to their new hosts, and how many have other allegiances
Muslim invaders and Zelenskyy are much alike in their lack of gratitude.
They should be grateful, but it’s not in them.
Pity.
Om,
Do you really need someone to feed you the pathetic numbers of our “Allies”. The British themselves not long ago were admitting their Army was about to be at its smallest size since 1793 !!!
https://www.the-independent.com/news/uk/politics/british-army-smallest-john-healey-b2629481.html
Boned Lizard much likes his man on the pony.
Pity
Look at the German Tank fleet. Is it even 10% what it was in the 1990s ? Then compare that to the Modern Turkish military….It’s almost as if someone was preparing to destroy the European Nation States and replace them with an Islamic horde. Maybe a new Ottoman Empire….
There’s nothing like fly fishing in early Spring…
Jon baker:
I thought you were outraged about the far east and Australia for some peculiar reason. But you give us another statistic bereft of any historical insight: manpower of the British Army today vs 1793. IIRC at that time the British were, wait for it, concerned with the French Army. Then they had the Napoleanic Wars, the Crimean War, the various and sundry British Impire wars, the Boer War, WWI, WWII, the Korean War, The Suez Crisis, …, The Falklands, Northern Ireland, The Iraq War, The Iraq War2 and Afghanistan. Yep a lot of fighting by the British Army, but there is a trend since 1945. Do you know what it is? The British military has consistently been getting smaller, amazing, and not a secret either. I’m surprised you picked such a lame 1793 metric. They don’t have an empire, just a Commonwealth. But anyway, the British know their military will be very hard pressed to put many boots on the ground in Ukraine. That disappoints you shurely? I won’t call you Shirley, Jon.
Even so the British haven’t been stingy sending arms and ordnance to Ukraine, or do you dispute that too.
Man up, oh man o data.
Trump negotiates … with his gut instincts. Not chess (3d, 4d) nor other games with one winner, looking for a win-win deal where he wins the most he can win.
And he’s willing to walk away if he thinks doing so now means a better deal later.
Did he fail with N. Korea? No great deal but it seemed better than Obama before or Biden after.
I prefer thinkers, who can tell me why, in advance, they’re doing what they do — to those who follow their guts With The Same Results.
I prefer Gut Using Winners over Thinking Losers.
Worst case – Russia uses nukes. I think there’s a lower chance of that worst case under Trump — Putin surely thinks he can outsmart Trump, but at this point could really use a Peace, too, if he doesn’t need to Lose.
The gut is likely a loose cannon.
Jon:
You might want to do some data digging about the British Army in the post Crimean War to 1914. The British Army at that time was used to deal with insurgencies in imperial colonies. It was small, so small compared to France and Germany that Kaiser Bill called it contemptable. Hence The British Expeditionary Force that went to France/Belgium in 1914 called themselves The Old Contemptables. They did well against the Germans all in all but were essentially destroyed by 1915/1916 (IIRC). Kitchner had to raise an entirely new army for the offensives in 1916. The Somme started in May 1916. But you know all that Jon?
Man-up, oh man o data.
”They should be grateful, but it’s not in them.
What the heck??? We should allow the Ukrainians to be genocided and even assist in the effort because they didn’t say “Thank you” enough? What the hell kind of morality is that?
There’s a video montage going around of Zelensky thanking the United States 94 times. Is that not enough? Is 94 times not enough to condemn genocide? Is 95 times enough? An even 100? How many thank yous do we need before we’re willing to condemn genocide? How many more before we’ll toss the Ukrainians some outdated weapons and allow them to use the satellite imagery we’re already collecting anyway?
Trump always acts with purpose, he has an objective. He’s not always correct, some of his moves do not work, but he is the antithesis of a “loose cannon”.
And the idiocy continues…
I had mentioned before that the US Treasury Secretary had threatened Ukraine with cutting off their access to Starlink, a satellite communications system owned and operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX. This would be devastating to Ukraine, as it’s the only large-scale communication system the Ukrainian military and civilian government has that hasn’t been destroyed by the invading Russians.
Before the 2022 invasion the Ukrainian government relied on a comsat system from the American company Viasat. But in the opening hours of the invasion in February 2022 Russian hackers obtained access to the system and bricked every terminal in Eastern Europe. Combined with the bombing of the civilian infrastructure, this makes Ukraine incredibly vulnerable to Starlink’s shutdown.
So what happened now? Elon Musk has threatened to shut off all Ukrainian access to Starlink. He has done this twice before in two local areas (but never the whole country or even a large region). Quite predictably this has generated a lot of fury from Europe, especially from Poland, who is paying the bill for 30,000 Ukrainian terminals and recently ordered 10,000 more.
Musk’s response? He publicly told the Polish foreign minister to “Be quiet small man.”
Ah, the 3-D chess of the Trump / Musk team! Does anyone here see how that could be unhelpful to wider American interests?
Europe is, of course, responding. The French company Eutelsat is preparing 40,000 terminals for their competing OneWeb satellite system to be sent to Ukraine. OneWeb is not as good as Starlink, and marketing analysts were questioning its very viability competing against Starlink.
No more. Eutelsat stock is reportedly up 240% just this month, and Europe is pulling together a plan to use billions of euros in subsidies to upgrade OneWeb into a more direct Starlink competitor.
This is not going to be the last such incident. Thousands of foreign contracts with American companies are already being canceled, and money is flowing in to foreign competitors.
In addition to the billions in lost revenue there is the loss of control. We won’t be able to shut down these competitors if we really need to, say, if they are being used in direct attacks against us.
But it sure feels good to ridicule the foreign minister of a close ally, doesn’t it? Doesn’t it?
The isolationists are isolating America but good!
”Trump always acts with purpose, he has an objective. He’s not always correct, some of his moves do not work, but he is the antithesis of a ‘loose cannon’.”
Ahhh, yes! The 3-D chess response. Trump is the grand master of 3-D chess. We’re all just too stupid to see it. The entire world, including all of our close allies, are all just too stupid to see it.
@mkent
Europe has a long ways to go to catch up in tech. They have been downright stagnant for at least a decade, and need to ditch the green. I don’t see that happening anytime soon. They have the advantage of following a trail blazed by the US, but there are a lot of missing pieces.
That said, at least they still fight with each other.
Trump is the grand master of 3-D chess.
Partially true. He is the master of all.
Bow down. Just bow down.
You’ll feel better.
Promise.
For the first time in fifteen months, the job gains for native-born Americans exceeded the job gains for migrant and foreign workers. Employment for native-born workers went up by 284K while foreign born workers went down by 87K.
I rest my case.
Zelenskyy….
Indeed it is MOST impressive how devoted Europe is to DEMOCRACY….
https://instapundit.com/707261/
Over to you, Mistuh Merz….
File under: The horror! The horror!
Chickens comin’ home to…die…
“Dr. Peter McCullough Links Bird Flu Outbreak To USDA Gain-Of-Function Experiment In Georgia”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/dr-peter-mccullough-links-bird-flu-outbreak-usda-gain-function-experiment-georgia
But, sure, blame Trump for the critical shortage of eggs…
+ Bonus (if anyone’s wonderin’)…
“When Corruption Is The Path”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/when-corruption-path
Speaking of Georgia, any idea what Stacey Abrams’s been up to lately? (Seems she’s been—uncharacteristically—a bit too quiet over the past while
‘Stacey Abrams’ Linked Nonprofit Spent $1.9 Billion in Taxpayer Funds on Supposed Appliance Upgrades;
‘“These NGOs were created for the first time, many of them, just to get this money. And they’re pass-throughs.”’—
https://legalinsurrection.com/2025/03/stacey-abrams-linked-nonprofit-spent-1-9-billion-in-taxpayer-funds-on-appliance-upgrades/
To be sure, one good grift deserves another…
“Report: $128 million in federal grants spent on gender ideology under Biden-Harris”—
https://justthenews.com/nation/states/center-square/report-128-million-federal-grants-spent-gender-ideology
And another…
“DOGE says $312M in loans were given to children during COVID pandemic”—
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/doge-says-312m-loans-given-children-covid-pandemic
And…
(It’s endless!)
Hey! The Donald must be reading this blog!!
“Trump says intel pause on Ukraine has been ‘just about’ lifted…”—
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-intel-pause-ukraine-just-about-lifted-tariffs-make-america-rich
Sure hope he sends in a donation—or tells his boss Musketeer to do so….
Gregory Harper: “As for the rest of the Germans below 90, I don’t think they would really fight for much of anything.”
I think that’s the case throughout western Europe and the UK. By contrast, most of the countries in eastern Europe and ex-republics of the former Soviet Union are serious about defending their independence and national sovereignty. They know what it means to lose it.
Germans had a reputation for being hard workers, but I’ve never lived anywhere with so many paid holidays. And since I lived in Bavaria, that included paid Catholic holidays. In addition to 4:00 PM coffee-and-cake, there was the 11:00 AM beer-and-cigarette break (beer = food), followed by a long continental lunch (and more beer).
P.S. In fairness, the NATO countries maintained very capable militaries during the Cold War. But that was 35 years ago or more.
Google indicates the EU population was 449.2 million in 2024.
Don,
The “border” countries seem determined. Saw a report some time ago that all Polish kids are to be trained in small arms.
Non-border countries, determined or not, should be able to spare a few Euros.
And a vastly dispersed set of hundreds of magazines containing, say, half a dozen one-way anti tank drones, should have many or most survive initial bombardment. How many? Putin would be asking himself. Cheap at twice the price and, disposed in depth, might not cause the required paranoia on the Russian side.