Trump and Zelensky: tactics or tantrums, or both?
[NOTE: I’ve published a new post on the subject here]
I’ll start by saying that I really hate the sort of thing that happened today on the Trump/Zelensky front, and I’m tired of the roller coaster of clashing personalities and agendas. My feelings about it are of no special relevance to anyone but me, but they certainly get in the way of my writing about the topic. I’d rather turn away, but I won’t. However, it makes it hard to evaluate and understand – and I don’t think I’m alone in that. As is so often the case, people interpret this according to their previous positions: those who love Trump and hate Zelensky – and that seems to be a common combination on the right – say Yay Trump! Stick it to that little worm! And those who despise Trump and like Zelensky (or who merely despise Trump) say that Trump just showed that he has a temperament unfit for public office and that he’s been Putin’s puppet all along.
As for me, I’m not sure whether this is some sort of tactical jockeying for position that will end up being a tempest in a teapot, sort of like watching a WWE match, or whether it signals an irreparable breakdown in negotiations for peace. And I don’t feel I can trust anyone to say, unless I find an objective observer. I was thinking perhaps of Victor Davis Hanson, but I can’t find anything from him on the topic yet.
So I’ll just go with this commenter at Instapundit for now, who seems to come closest to my initial view of the blowup:
Whoever is advising Zelensky about the US, or Zelensky himself, just doesn’t understand Trump or US opinion. Mistake one was at the campaign event for Harris at the ammo factory. The other was today. He can push on Trump in private, but not in public.
Today Zelensky just needed to say this on camera: “Mr. President, thank you for inviting me here for talks. On behalf of the Ukrainian people, we are most thankful for all the help the US has provided over the years, and we look forward to discussing your ideas for peace.”
Save the rest for in private, and then deflect any reporter questions until the cameras are off.
Yes. Apparently the reason the cameras were rolling is that this was supposed to basically be a photo-op. What started the explosion? It’s hard to know from the coverage so far. Here’s Ace:
The summit got off to a bad start when Trump said of Zelenskyy, “Oh you got all dressed up today.”
Vance also pointed out that Zelenskyy went on a partisan political campaign in America, trying to get Biden and Democrats elected.
Things took a turn when Zelenskyy attempted to embarrass Trump and “re-litigate” his demands for unlimited US funding “in front of the media.” Then Trump and Vance began shutting him down.
Video here. Must watch. It starts out like a normal meeting, but then Zelenskyy starts doing what he always does, making demands on people like he’s Greta Fucking Thunberg.
Trump ultimately tells Zelenskyy that the US is out of Ukraine, one way or the other, so Zelenskyy can either begin negotiating or get ready to “fight it out” against Russia on his own.
How did this go wrong? Let me count the ways, and it’s by no means an exclusive count. Let’s just say that, IMHO, there’s plenty of blame to go around. I would much rather have had a bland photo-op from everyone, and leave the fireworks for backstage, because once huge egos are publicly involved it’s hard to repair the damage.
The following comment, which I also found at Instapundit, is way too optimistic in my opinion. But I really hope I’m wrong and this person is right:
Trump seems to be doing two things here:
1. Knocking down Zelensky’s sense that he can expect additional help from the US just for the asking. I’ve been sympathetic to Zelensky’s position of having to shamelessly ask for huge amounts of resources, just because the leader of a country in Ukraine’s position has to do that for their own defense. However, he has definitely come off as ungrateful. Trump has made it clear that he has no problem cutting Ukraine off if American interests aren’t being served. This will force Zelensky to take a more rational view of the situation than he has had to so far – and at the same time, any additional aid that Trump decides should go to them will be very clearly a gift rather than anything owed to them.
2. He’s putting daylight between the US and Ukrainian governments. This sort of blow-up will be loved by Russian media, and will be widely broadcast to the Russian public. Even if Putin sees it as theater, it will make the average Russian more willing to trust Trump as mediator rather than as a co-belligerent against them.
I guess we’ll see.
ADDENDUM: This is very surprising to me. I didn’t expect Lindsey Graham to defend Trump.
Putin is the only one to benefit. As you rightly point it’s not good to do this in public. Diplomacy happens in private for very good reasons.
Video here shows who was aggressive, loud, rude, angry, and undiplomatic. Zelensky was the calm one.
That’s the 7:39 minute one showing Vance actually starting it. There’s a 10+ minute one of the full exchange, but I don’t have that link now.
Worst case of American Diplomacy that I have ever seen or witnessed…shameful—at best!?
Putin and the Kremlin are cheering…Trump just handed them an even stronger position…
As of 4pm, Zelensky is still scheduled to appear with Bret Bair at 6pm on Fox. I don’t know if that is supposed to be live or not.
Having served a full career as a diplomat, I would count this as a monumental diplomatic failure. On both sides. Although, if I had to award points for undiplomatic behavior, the greatest number of points would go to JD Vance. Trump is a close second. And I supported both of them.
Zelensky’s biggest error was trying to conduct this interview in English. He should have used a translator. It would have given both sides more time to think things through before replying. And the advantage would have gone to Zelensky, who understands enough English that he would have known what the translator was going to say, and perhaps to get some nuance from the translated statement.
Vance would not have benefitted from a translator. What he needed was a muzzle.
Pity. Or maybe not. Hard-line Republicans have been looking for a way to be done with this nasty little war.
My overwhelming concern is what message three people have taken from this: Putin, Xi and whoever is in charge in Iran.
Good point F a translator would slowed the process. I’ve just watched it again. Dreadful. Reaction around the world is largely blaming Trump but Zelensky must have been aware what Trump can be like.
The Russians are delighted Here is Medvedev on Twitter
Dmitry Medvedev
@MedvedevRussiaE
The insolent pig finally got a proper slap down in the Oval Office. And
@realDonaldTrump
is right: The Kiev regime is “gambling with WWIII.”
I agree with F here. It also occurred to me re: the partisan political event. That is absolutely true, but I think the problem has less to do with that it happened per se so much as there wasn’t another, balancing one. There are a few derpy games out there (including at least one truly repulsive but addictive lefttard “satire” game about oil and politics) that focus on how you tend to want to grease and butter both sides, with at most a bit more to the side that wins. I suspect Trump and Zelenskyy have had bad problems since the Burisma/Shokin affair and the blowup there, and they likely have trouble standing each other on a personal level, but campaigning with both candidates and parties would give the appearance of trying to keep a bipartisan, even keel behind Ukraine regardless of who won. That didn’t happen.
I would still largely fault Trump more here given my issues with the minerals deal and other issues leading up to this as well as the “dressed up” thing, but Zelenskyy made things even worse.
And Vance should not have been there. I was always iffy on him in the campaign but he did a lot to improve my opinion of him. This undid a lot of that.
On the whole frustrating and worrying.
Great comment & points by F. Many points that I never even considered – especially that last point…
I’m find I’m moving (and quite surprised to be, too) in the direction of “. . . not another goddamn dime. Take your beggars act off to the EU, ya putz.”.
Turtler:
It is also my impression that Trump and Zelensky personally dislike each other and that that is spilling over into the Ukraine negotiations in a way that could be tragic. At the moment I am quite angry with Trump and Vance. They should have held it together and dealt with this privately. If Zelensky is a hothead they needn’t be.
@F
Spectacularly well said, and my thoughts were mirrored as well. The translator issue is also important, but would largely not even be thought of by most.
Part of me would be curious if you have considered trying a blow by blow analysis of this farqup and what we can see, grading the different sides and explaining how they scored bad diplomacy points and also if/when they scored good ones.
But still what you posted is already precious. I just wish it were about a more welcome event, unlike this.
Ed: it also occurred to me that Zelenskyy as a native Russophone would be trying to negotiate in what is basically a secondary or even tertiary language for him; he’s gotten used to habitually speaking Ukrainian and has learned English quite well but I can only imagine the kind of issues involved there. Though I do think the key problems here were what was being asked and there were not many “translation errors.”
That this was supposed to be a feel good photo op is all the more dismaying.
I caught this on TV in a store in Columbus, Georgia just as things started to get out of hand. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing and hearing. Not good at all, and I say that as somebody who strongly supports Trump and Vance. Trump is Trump–I could see him getting steamed as Zelenskyy talked. But Vance should have known better than to throw a match on the tinder.
To say that Trump and Zelenskyy personally dislike each other is an understatement. Still, there’s a time and place for “frank and open discussions”, and a photo op in the Oval Office ain’t it. Nobody comes out of this looking good.
Z has been part of the Democrat scam team since Trump’s 1st term. Whenever there’s a pandemic, a shooting, a hurricane, or war, Democrat scam team leaders rush to exploit the situation for political leverage. Especially if it works against Trump.
Rumors of a possible Blinken, Rice, Nuland, and Vindman conference call with Zelensky on the flight to DC advising him to “stand strong” and “be tough” and “don’t let Trump bully you”.
The days when we could trust the guys in striped pants to negotiate behind closed doors in good faith for America’s best interest, regardless of which party occupies the government, are, I’m afraid, behind us (if ever they existed). Now we have Donny from Queens.
I’ll concede the failure in diplomatic process today, but we don’t know yet of course what the outcome will be. That he does not do things the accepted way, that he is not easy to predict, has been a strength, and a weakness, for Trump.
And of course in this circumstance, Americans do not agree among themselves what the best outcome for America is.
Even though I’ve been quite critical of Trump, in this case I back him 100%, and Vance too. If the negotiations for a peace deal blow up it will prove what the corrupt, sniveling, weasel Zelensky is really after, WW3. He must think that Europe will somehow come to Ukraine’s rescue and force the U.S. to follow. Does he care about the dead bodies piling up in his country? NO! He wants the money and the false prestige that a small man without scruples always desires, no matter the lives lost or the history destroyed.
Hmm, if Dan Crenshaw as well as Lindsay Graham are backing Trump’s approach to Zelenskiy, then I suggest that things are not as they seem, and it might be wise to reserve judgment and await more facts. Just a thought.
Neo seems to not understand that people love a fight of street theater. I don’t know what schools you went to. But in mine, whether elementary or HS or in between, nothing drew rapid onset crowds than any fight. The more passionate or ridiculous, the better!
This was great Street Theater! What do people do on a later Saturday night at the bars? They gather for UFC or whatever else is on tsp…in competitive fisticuffs!
Neo does get it — kind of.
Zilensky acts like Team Trump can be treated just like Mr Potato-head. He even offended American political autonomy by boosting Mr PH’s nominee in the heat of a real campaign to win and rule the country against MAGA and Team Trump.
Hence all the airing of ingratitude now. And Zelensky has fought how many years of war on the US dollar while never facing elections himself? What a freaking AMATEUR hypocrite.
There’s more. I won’t go into the Ukraine corruption and the Democrat Party corruption going on there! Mr Comedian Z is like Trudeau — he’s bin over his heap and deserves what he’s getting good now!
Meanwhile, the Euro’s will act all offended at Trump as if “decorum” trumps all! — never mind the Will of The People revealed by MAGA victory.
If Zilensky is too ridiculous not ask his brother Europeans to tbe His new Sugar Daddy — and if the the EU/NATO folks are too brazen not to volunteer themselves, then where does it put us?
Re-watching The Fight all weekend and next on political talk shows!
And it was glorious. When Neo writes like a a fight naïf, “How did this go wrong? Let me count the ways…” then I must insist on all the many, many ways this airing of grievances went Hella RRRRight!
Also there is this Link:
https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1895562922593841557
“I watched the entire press conference with Zelensky. There was 40 minutes of discussion up to the argument. Most people saw at most the last ten minutes. The whole video gives the proper context.”
The rest of Hanania’s comment for those not clicking links:
I read all the comments and agree 100% with TJ.
@Hubert: Agree about this not being a time and place for frank and open discussions. Also, that there’s a personal history between Trump and Zelensky, although it is possible Zelensky doesn’t appreciate how abrasive his politicking in Pennsylvania was to both Trump and Vance. That surprises me — he’s a smart politician. Somehow he thought he could get away with telling Pennsylvanians they should vote for Kamala Harris.
This, BTW, is the classic European take on America: we love your money and your marketplace, but couldn’t you be just a bit more socialist? Less cowboy?
@Turtler: I could not possibly do more precise analysis of what just happened in the Oval Office today, because it turns my stomach every time I see another airing of the dustup. I just cannot watch it. It was quite honestly total enmérdement and the time to demérder what just happened is not now.
Zelensky just proved himself our enemy. Ungrateful beyond imagining. To get J.D. Vance stirred up you must hit all the right buttons. You know what goes on in the mind of Marine who has seen death in a war zone, who’s encountered wounded and mentally damaged for life soldiers, and who has himself suffered the trauma of just “being there”? Needless war after war going back more than a half century, that is what I imagine Vance was thinking as he came face to face with the evil runt that lives off it, that enjoys it.
https://x.com/Dubinsky_pro/status/1895554358458097970
I would be happy if Trump is equally harsh on Putin. Trump wants “peace now”, and making sure Putin can’t take this as a win. How that will work is an open question, but Russia may be vulnerable to having its shadow fleet taken out of action. Putin might also take that as an escalation. That is a vulnerability for China as well, since it would cut their oil supply.
China is also like likely to misread this entirely. Taiwan is not like Ukraine.
What happens next is outside the scope of my Magic 8-ball. Wild outside guess, Putin ignores Trump’s call for Peace Now, and Trump pulls a full reverse on Ukraine. Somewhere there’s a “pox on both your houses” scenario.
What was on display today is just negotiations that have been going on in private being made public. Zelensky doesn’t want the peace deal that is likely to be negotiated, given Ukraine’s weak negotiating position. President Trump is still trying to get Zelensky to agree to accepting the likely terms of a peace deal.
If you listen to the last two minutes, Trump is emphatic “you either make a deal or we’re out” to Zelensky. It’s pretty obvious with what Zelensky repeatedly said during the press conference that the mineral deal wasn’t enough– he wanted security guarantees which the US can’t/won’t give.
President Trump tried to make the point that the very presence of American companies and American workers would be enough deterrence. I assume Zelensky understands this mineral deal with the US is the best position Ukraine is going to be in to get any concessions from Russia. Had he thought it through, lowering the conscription age to 18 would have given the Ukrainians the best negotiating tool they would have (even if they didn’t intend to implement it).
At this point President Trump is still trying to get Zelensky to agree to accepting the likely terms of a peace deal.
It’s really ludicrous to say this benefits Russia/Putin. Russia knows Zelensky/Ukraine’s position on this. The only unknown is to what extent the US will continue to support Ukraine without a mineral deal. Zelensky is trying to prevent any negotiations between Russia and the US, or create the dynamic (based on the conditions that Russia will try and impose on a settlement) where the US will walk away without presenting the terms to Ukraine.
This is a very dangerous tactic by Zelensky. So far it has worked with the Europeans and I suppose Zelensky thinks this will mobilize continued support for Ukraine by the American people that will force the Trump administration to continue military aid.
I don’t know what level of support Ukraine has among the American people, but I can’t imagine a majority of Americans what to continue supporting Ukraine to the tune of between $60 billion and $100 billion a year (depending on which number you choose to accept for the aid up to this point).
Zelensky has said if the US stops funding, Ukraine will continue fighting in insurgent campaign against Russia. They will never accept ceding territory Russia occupies to Russia.
Secretary of State Rubio in an interview with Brian Kilmeade said we don’t know yet whether Russia wants to end the war.
My advice to Trump– you can’t win them all.
Zelensky is being very poorly advised about US politics.
He never should have gone on the campaign trail for Harris in Pennsylvania.
If J D Vance used this as a way to make points about the FJB junta then it seems that J D Vance showed a monumental absence of judgement.
The FJB junta is a dead horse and there bigger things to deal with in the present.
Should J D Vance be allowed at the adult’s table?
I knew there would be trouble when Zelensky brought out the photos of Ukrainian prisoners. He wanted to use these pictures as emotional blackmail and conduct negotiations on security guarantees in public. This was supposed to be a relatively short photo-op with short statements not a negotiation on future security guarantees.
There is very little actual support for Zelensky in this country. The only real support comes from the defeated Nikki Haley neocon wing of the GOP. The Democrats couldn’t care less what happens to Ukraine and only appear to support Ukraine because it is a stick to beat Trump with. Lindsay Graham’s reaction shows you how badly Zelensky has miscalculated. His behavior was the perfect example of what not to do to get the support of a country that you desperately need.
J*F*M
Putin should never have invaded Ukraine.
President Trump supplied Ukraine with lethal arms and ordnance to fight Russia’s Little Green Men after Putin escalated things in 2014 after Saint Yanulovitch skedaddled.
Ukraine is still under attack by Russia. Hard cold facts. Ukraine lives with them.
Gregory Harper, has Karnac the Omnipotent been giving you the straight poop?
‘N just like that—Lindsey Olin Graham is welcomed back into the fold…
@F
Quite understandable. It was stomach churning for me to see, even with the fuller interview. For a diplomat I can only imagine how badly this went. Take care.
Agreed. This is also why while I think Zelenskyy could be seen as being on the campaign trail with candidates, it had to be for both parties or none. Or at a minimum “just” with the side that won. That was one of the worst possible moves he picked.
F – Is Zelensky a smart politician?
One could argue that a smart politician doesn’t allow himself to be used as a politicized prop by one faction of your biggest patron.
One could easily argue that a smart politician doesn’t turn a photo op in the capital of your largest patron into a televised verbal brawl with the leader of your vital ally.
I don’t think Trump, or especially Vance, covered themselves in glory today, but Zelensky’s behavior is incomprehensible. He did damage to his country today.
I’ve published a new post on the subject here
Bauxite:
I agree. My new post goes into that quite a bit.
I wonder if we’re all being trolled? With Trump anything can happen. The reason I think there is at least a chance of this is that J.D. Vance behaved in a way that is totally uncharacteristic for him. Almost like it was staged? He was baited by the professional MSM trolls for 7 months and kept his composure admirably. They couldn’t rattle him. The next question is to what end? The last question is: Was Zelensky in on the act? Before you dismiss this entirely, please remember we’ve never seen anything like Trump before. We’re used to the Bushes, Mitt Romney, et al who never had the imagination to even dream of something like this. Please give it some thought.
chazzand:
That has also occurred to me, absolutely. That’s why I asked the question in the title: tactics or tantrums? But I don’t see to what purpose. I don’t think it’s what happened, but I agree with you that it cannot be ruled out.
It reminded me a bit of those encounters prior to wrestling or boxing matches, where both parties talk trash for the cameras. I understand it in that context, but what would be the purpose in this one?
Brian E gets to the bottom line.
“If you listen to the last two minutes, Trump is emphatic “you either make a deal or we’re out” to Zelensky.”
Zelensky is now a “dead man walking” as in arguing in the Oval Office before the cameras, he’s “burned his bridges”. The Ukrainian Ambassador’s reaction in lowering her head, covering her eyes and subtlety shaking her head back and forth as Zelensky argued confirmed her assessment of the meeting as disastrous.
The US will now start to implement a process of pulling out all US support from Ukraine. Just the cutting off of Starlink will hamstring Ukraine’s ability to coordinate its military strategies.
There can be no ceasefire much less a peace treaty without Ukraine’s agreement. If none, in the late spring, Russia will move to seize control of the lands up to the Dnieper River and in the south, seize control all the way to Odessa. Ukraine will become a landlocked rump State. There’s also an excellent chance that if the UK and France are so foolish as to send ‘peacekeeper’ troops into Ukraine, when Russia attacks them and the US refuses to see it as an Article V violation, NATO will collapse. That would accelerate the coming collapse of the EU as well.
Some lyrics from the song “The Gambler” apply;
“If you’re gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right
You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep”
I agree with Neo.
Geoffrey Britain: “NATO will collapse”
The picture you paint is worst case old friend, but sadly it could happen.
“And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep”
I’m thinking tacos for lunch.
@The Other Chuck
Fair enough.
That’s a hell of a fucking stretch. And of all the issues I’ve seen with Zelenskyy sniveling isn’t one of the plausible ones. Also, is it really so hard to conflate the desire to have one’s territory back (at least to the lines of 2022) and lack of faith with the Kremlin with *desire for World War Fucking Three*?
And why do you say this while ignoring the likes of Pravda having Kremlin mouthpieces outright fantasizing about nuclear war on their pages and in their video feeds at a time when you cannot even candidly point out the nature of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact without facing arrest and fines or jail time in Russia?
Zelenskyy – corrupt, sniveling, or weasel as you may think he is or that he even may be – tried hard to make a deal with Putin, and utterly failed. So not seeing a way out or path to forcing Putin to compromise, he may figure holding tough is just about the only possible path. Not unlike how the Spanish Republic’s leadership figured out that compromise with Franco was impossible and ultimately hoped for international support or a wider war to call attention to their plight. It’s an awful situation to be in but by no means their main fault.
There are worse responses to things than hoping for that, especially when you were promised support and defense for Ukraine’s 1994 borders by the UK and US, and when you believe (with ample evidence) the Kremlin will not be willing to cut a deal.
How fucking presumptuous. This is dumb on multiple levels, starting with the fact he was pretty active visiting the front and even rear areas and has to deal with the fact that there is a small but nonzero chance he will be one of the dead bodies. It also ignores the fact that this war has been a blight for the two previous Ukrainian administrations he came into office promising to fix (including with terms and proposals that got the Soros front groups like Euromaidan Press angry), only to fail, largely on the basis of the Kremlin not being interested or willing to make some kind of lasting deal.
That’s cute. Now do Putin.
PS: Wouldn’t he get at least as much money and false prestige cutting some kind of “peace for our time” deal like he had offered to do while seeking power?
I have plenty of issues with Zelenskyy, especially after this. He was always grandstanding, bombastic, and arrogant. He also has since become downright tunnel visioned and hysterical like talking about how Russia would try to conquer all of Europe if Ukraine falls, and two faced when dealing with Trump over the past decade. But this particular strawman you have of Zelenskyy doesn’t really bare much of a resemblance to reality or his real flaws.
Depends on how we define “our enemy.”
On that much I do agree.
Given what I’ve seen of Vance I’m not so convinced there. Especially given the scale of the war.
Zelenskyy was never a soldier, but you really think he has never encountered the dead, the wounded, or the mentally scarred? Even if you are skeptical of a lot of the reports such as the Russian Spec Ops Bag/Hit teams in Kyiv after him in Feb 2022 (which I believe is plausible and keeping with Russian doctrine and its love of decapitation blows, but which I cannot prove) he has had to do multiple cycles of wounded and lives in places bombarded semi-regularly by Russian missiles.
Oh fuck off and pull your head out of your asshole.
“Lives off it”? Zelenskyy came to power during the sort of tepid war period after Minsk II, when fighting was limited to the Donbas, and on a platform of explicitly seeking an end to the conflict (including by territorial concessions to the Russian Government). That failed. It overwhelmingly failed because the Kremlin could not even bring itself to answer.
Even if Zelenskyy were an “evil runt” he doesn’t live off the war. Indeed if you took your own supposed evidence (such as believing the WSJ “expose”) seriously you would understand how Zelenskyy is limited by what other Ukrainians can accept or tolerate.
@Geoffrey Britain
If true and that gets held, I think that points to what a fiasco this was on both sides.
Agreed it was a disaster, but as for how seriously the bridges were burned, that’s another question. I also think a lot of people underestimate how much bridges can be rebuilt if there is sufficient time and incentive, or how Putin burnt his own bridge.
I’m skeptical about if it would pull out “ALL” US support from Ukraine, but it is possible.
And even with Ukraine’s agreement I think people underestimate just how nasty and prolonged ground level fighting could be as various paramilitaries refuse to abide by the treaty, even if the major signatories did (which to those of us that remember Minsk I and II is *ANYTHING* but guaranteed).
“Author’s Barely Disguised Fetish” vibes right there. Geoffrey, I’d suggest you stop reading retarded Zigger fanfic and instead re-read the actual histories of how fighting went.
The truth is, the Russian military is not in a good position to make “Ukraine a landlocked country”, as I *Know* I’ve told you before. Even when it came close to effectively making Ukraine one with its naval hold on the Western Black Sea and presence on Snake Island.
One does not have to be a Zelenskyy Cultist or Globalist in order to recognize that. Contrary to a lot of the memes the Russian military’s Southern opening moves were hugely effective (blowing through the superficially formidable but complacent Ukrainian defenses on the Isthmus to seize things as far as Kherson). But it never came anywhere close to seizing Odessa, and indeed the harassing bombardments against the city probably just stiffened resistance in what had previously been one of Ukraine’s great “swing centers” between East and West, Blue and Orange, etc.
And that was with the Moskva still above water and able to provide significant bombardment and overwatch for the possibility of either an amphibious attack or river crossing march on the city. Suffice it to say it is no longer on the table, while greater Ukrainian anti-ship missiles are.
The idea that the Kremlin’s going to be able to seize all this by late spring or anything close to it is fantasy, and one that even the Kremlin (for all of its propaganda and public atmosphere) seems to know, given how they have been focusing on trying to reclaim more of Kursk and the Donbas.
Again, “Author’s barely disguised fetish” vibes. It’s telling that judging from Macron etc. al.’s nonsense that this is actually the less deranged and fantastical of the “projections” here.
Also, while we’re on the subject of “The Gambler” (good song by the way):
How the heck do you expect to get to the point of “dying in your sleep” when you have significant advocates in the Kremlin declaring your entire country verboten, or at a minimum demanding a controlling stake of it? Zelenskyy has a living example of what might happen to him and others in the form of Saakashvilli, who went on the run after the government that replaced his decided to reach out to the Kremlin (if only to have a somewhat stable solution) and went after him for corruption Saaks may or may not be actually guilty of and to help satiate the Kremlin’s demands and remove him as domestic opposition. It’s why he has been slumming it in Ukraine and took Ukrainian citizenship.
If one of the BETTER outcomes of the conflict Zelenskyy etc. al. can look forward to if the Kremlin wins is becoming a new kind of Bohemian like the Czechs and ethnic Germans that fled Habsburg crackdowns and conquest of their homeland in the Thirty Years War did, always looking over their shoulder for fear of a possible poisoned umbrella or similar treatment, is it surprising why he would be leery about coming to the table or having reason to trust the Kremlin?
Ditto the Ukrainian public, which saw the Kremlin go from “those little green men in Crimea are not ours” to “They were, and our special military operation demands forced Neutrality – which we will interpret – , demilitarization, and “denazification”, in utter contravention of Ukraine’s sovereign rights and our previous pledges.”
That doesn’t mean the Russian military will never be able to take Odessa. But it does mean it will probably be a lot longer, bloodier, and harder than you make it out to be.
‘we’re covering not only his military expenditures but his countries pension benefits,he is a might better than poroshenko, the chocolate king, as he was dubbed, he put three members of the svoboda faction in his cabinet, which was a poor choice, he brokered the return of kolomoisky, the one who sundered the Privat bank, the real owner of Burisma, and as such one of Hunter’s employers, the former institution went up to the tune of 6 billion dollars, that included the loans that Biden had extorted from Poroshenko, in return for firing Shokin, an honest man, like Charlton Heston’s character in ‘Touch of Evil
I understand the significance of Bandera, as with Petlura, in the pantheon of their history, he fought off Soviet and Polish Armies for four years in the Carpathian Mountains, virtually without support, retreated to Munich, where he ran afoul of the real SMERSH, the Soviet kill Squad, in 1957, that was during the reign of the good Mudzik Kruschev, well in relative terms,
but one also should consider what it means, re his actions, in the Voyjodina, (sic)
border region with Poland,
as to the boyars of the country, the pinchuks, the akhamatovs, they aren’t any great prize, they finally got around to putting Kolomoisky in prison, after brief retreat to Montenegro,
most of these public special pleaders like vindman, the US sambassador name escapes me, george kent, the chief anticorruption official, who did very little,
@miguel cervantes
Agreed, we and the Euros and a few others. Which I think is the major problem, and not sustainable in the long run.
Agreed on the whole, sans for Shokin being the “honest man”. That’s the first I’ve heard him described as, even among those opposed to his unjust firing (at least as it happened). But apparently while he was corrupt and opportunistic to a point that point wasn’t enough for them.
Voyjodina is in Serbia, on the borders of it and Hungary. Volhynia is what you’re thinking of. And agree. Bandera was a terror and a terrorist, as well as an unironic fascist who wanted to ally with the Nazis until they betrayed him. He was not a good man, even if he arguably may have been a lesser evil compared to literally Hitler and Stalin and their puppets. But I do give him an example of just how long and protracted a guerilla war can be, not unlike we saw in CHechnya.
Agreed they aren’t, but the resources they and the country have are. And made more of an issue since we negotiated the guarantees with Ukraine in 1994 alongside the Russians and British. Maybe it would’ve been better – even far better – had we not. But that’s ultimately water under the bridge and the realm of What Ifs now.
if they hadn’t stolen the 2020 election it’s very unlikely there would have been a further incursion, if Putin didn’t have the oil revenue, he couldn’t have gone very far, the Chechen incursion from what I can gather, was one of those ‘cakewalks’ that didn’t work out, the Stavka, like the Bourbons, have forgotten everything and learned nothing, from the siege of Grozny to the fall of Dudayev, which really opened up Pandora’s box of horribles, the Basayevs the Khattabs the Black Widows, the last two were largely the contributions of the retainers of the Current Saudi king, whose son has tried to make amends, the Dragons Teeth sowed in Dubrovka, and Beslan, and a dozen places in between, some of these fighters migrated their way to Syria,
@Turtle:
You write very well. My knowledge of war and people, however, isn’t from a text book or from reprinting a grok answer. It’s from lived experience and judging people whom I’ve encountered in real life. I choose not to recount and relive these experiences. But suffice to say, my prejudiced opinion of Zelensky is based on those.
Zelensky is and will remain a cheap vaudeville entertainer. His role, the role of a lifetime, on or off stage, is that of heroic war hero. He gads about Europe and this country playing the part, with his dark green quasi-military shirt and pants, seeking out photo ops, lunches & dinners, and attending “important” meetings. All the while he’s collecting money, and not just a few lousy tips thrown on stage, but billions and billions.
None of Zelensky’s shtick is real, or rather the facade he’s projecting isn’t real. The death and destruction he’s overseeing is, however. Without it his role will end.
That sums of why I called Zelensky an evil runt who lives off war and enjoys it. He just proved it in spades by sabotaging the beginnings of a peace settlement. What did he do after being ejected from the White House and told to leave the country? Go on Fox and get before the cameras for one last photo op.
the other chuck has the wisdom of unsourced anecdotes.
Lived experience, second hand.
Otay, Buckwheat.
Works for him.
Your man rides a pony, see today’s Open Thread.
om, my man doesn’t ride a pony. Sometimes it’s not either/or, but a pox on both. As to lived experience, you don’t want to know, it would require a book. And that’s just the brief time spent in the Air Force. As to turtle’s dissertation of WW1, my father, Yes My Father, not grandfather, was in it. I know, perhaps second hand, but know all I need to know and forget about that precious piece of history. It’s why Trump is about ready to cut the cord with the ever feuding, ever fighting assholes.
@The Other Chuck
I’ll thank you then.
Firstly: I don’t use Grok at all. Indeed, I chastised Brian E for using it in lieu of other sources, in part because as someone with a novice’s knowledge of AI and some experience I have ideas on how it can be flatout wrong, and even more on how it can “Flatten” and “remove context” from data.
Secondly: I plead to have no direct knowledge of war, so very much falling into the “textbook” side of the equation. That can’t be said for all the people I work with, which include a number of other veterans.
Thirdly: As even Patton pointed out and as the examination of “lived experiences” shows, one should have a good balance of textbook knowledge and personal experience, precisely because no one person can know or experience everything.
I may be grateful for your service, but that does not mean I am obliged to be quiet in the face of what I see are flawed conclusions or reliance on hideously flawed (even when not outright false) sources like the WSJ’s “expose.”
Which is well worth knowing, and why I’m inclined to give some weight to your judgement, especially since it has probably kept you and others alive.
But I notably haven’t based my arguments on the personal sanctity and impeccable personal life of St. Volodymyr Zelenskyy of the Bayraktars, Servant of the People and Defender of All the Rus. I don’t know the man personally (I would also guess you don’t either), and my knowledge of what he has done is flawed and filtered through all kinds of flawed and biased sources, mostly MSM leaning ones. And much of what I *DO* know is unflattering and not something I am inclined to trust. He is an actor after all, and that means he is used to putting on shows and to being stage managed, after all, as we know he has been.
It’s one reason why I am not inclined to trust him unconditionally, even when I think he has a point. And why I also blame him (and while I greatly respect F’s assessment have come to believe Zelenskyy committed far greater faux pas and failures than simply deciding to use English rather than using the buffer of a translator).
But I also recognize that St. Volodymyr is nowhere near as central to the story of the Russo-Ukrainian War as a lot of the pop culture and media present. This war predated his rise to power, and I fear the fundamental problems will remain long after he has gone. I do not put as much stake on his personal credit, morality, honor, or ethics because contra Trump he is not a dictator (at least yet) and even if he was his ability to impact things like the ambitions for greater Russia would be limited.
I can believe that. Though then again Reagan can be argued to have been an expensive Hollywood entertainer. But in any case that’s also why I work to avoid idolizing him (especially given his disgraceful showing regarding Burisma and here), and I do not structure my arguments around his person.
Which is par for the course and puts him on par with a less (provably) sleazy, nepotistic, and totalitarian loving Madame Mei-ling Chiang/Jiang of justifiable WWII infamy, many sexual scandals, and rampant corruption, who helped con a great many resources out of the US and elsewhere for poor, beleaguered China (and her husband’s secret police, warlord patronage system, and wannabe-Fascist administration). You will not see me have much good to say about the Chinese KMT/GMD under the Chiangs or their conduct in WWII.
But that doesn’t change the fact that as callous and ruthless as they were towards even their own people (far more so than any sane estimate of Zelenskyy), the Japanese and Maoists were worse by several country miles and both were ultimately threats to the US.
Moreover, even if Zelenskyy is ultimately an actor strutting for the camera playing a role in “Servant of the People II: Russian Boogaloo” that doesn’t change the fact that it has occurred to some degree with “live fire stunts.” The stakes for him are probably not as high as for the poor bloody infantry fighting in the trenches at Kursk or Kharkhiv or the partisans operating in the rear, but he still faces death, capture, or exile if things do not work. When even Putin’s closest ally Lukashenko was willing to openly accuse Putin of trying to have him killed, I think that speaks volumes to the reputation and conduct of Putin and his clique.
(For the record, I don’t actually BELIEVE Lukashenko on that score. But the fact that the accusation – easily on par with Trump ordering the murder of a Prime Minister Nigel Farage – is not obviously false I think speaks volumes, and in any case the deployment of the Russian military to Belarus in a defacto occupation also shows how controlling he is).
That I can believe it. I hesitate to believe that “none” of it is real, given both the reported-and-IMHO-credible reports of Russian assassination attempts on him and the mundane horrors of visiting a combat zone.
But in any case your point is well made, and I largely agree. Zelenskyy is no Sgt Rock. He is not a soldier or the war hero. His persona is stage managed by a host of propagandists and spindoctors from around the world to try and create the ideal of the patriotic Churchillian underdog regardless of if he is actually that. It’s also why I certainly can’t write off accusations there
Sure, but then that means he and his spindoctors have to try and craft and cast for a new role. Perhaps “Machiavellian Political Mastermind” or “Hard-Nosed Peace Maker” or “Elder Statesman.” Much as we’d expect.
In any case, I think many people overlook how while his “heroic war hero” casting role is the “role of a lifetime” and probably one he’ll be remembered for most, it wasn’t his initial one. He and his political circle upended Poroshenko by playing “Mr. Smithskyy goes to WashintKyiv”, “Wide-Eyed Idealistic Political Outsider Reformist and Peacemaker who would make a Deal to Stop the War.”**
How true THAT role or collection of roles is eludes me, just as much as it does much else. If I had to wager my life, I’d guess it was somewhat closer to reality than the “Heroic War Hero” role. And in some level it doesn’t matter, as that role didn’t pan out well as the Russian government consistently went off “script” with things like refusing the grand bargain of a Donbas Plebicite.
To be honest I don’t know Zelenskyy’s soul. I also am willing to bet I have less of an intuitive grasp of it than you do, and that he is definitely not Churchill. But on some level I think it doesn’t matter that much. The war’s at best only partially about him.
Lives off war I can believe it. As for enjoying it that’s another issue.
I disdain Zelenskyy for how he has treated Trump and a very generous US, and in particular this ill-fated cockamanie attempt to get more concessions during a substanceless PR shoot in the White House. But as far as “sabotaging the beginnings of a peace settlement” I don’t fault him for that as much as I do sabotaging the possible reconciliation with Trump.
But he is a product of the post-Minsk “peace settlement” and saw what that got Ukraine, and also has ample reason to believe the new one will leave Ukraine in an even worse state. He also just has to look in his “Near Abroad” to Moldova, Georgia, and Belarus for possible fates.
In any case he has his roles to play. I believe he played it quite badly with his temper tantrum during the visits here (though I agree with Neo that nobody played their part as well as they should have). He did a disservice to himself, his country, Trump, and the US.
But he can still be an evil runt and egotistical, selfish, sociopathically indifferent to destruction vaudeville crisis actor and still have a point about Putin being a terrorist, perfidious, untrustworthy, and vocally hostile to his country’s existence.
After all, whoever is managing him picked him in part because they believed he could say that forcibly.
Indeed, which irked me. But it makes a certain amount of sense. After all, photo ops and narrative control are a key part of war, and the White House meeting was supposed to be its own (very different from what happened) photo op. In any case I care less about Zelenskyy than I do what people he represents, and in particular how the war in Ukraine reflects and impacts American interests.
And I say this as someone who was vocally willing to sacrifice Ukraine to the Kremlin’s tender mercies if it was a choice between saving Ukraine and saving the US from its foreign and domestic enemies. But if I’m going to do that, I think it’s worth keeping our eyes open. And even if Zelenskyy is a discount Madame Chiang for the digital age, that doesn’t mean he is as hostile to US interests as Ukraine’s enemies (most of whom are also ours) getting their way.
Agreed, but I think there are limits to how far that can go. In a just world we’d be able to cast a pox on the Right KMT under Chiang, the Left KMT under Wang, the Comintern goons under Borodin and Mao, and the various cliques of Japanese warlords. And to some degree we did. But we couldn’t do so equally.
And crisis actor from Ukrainian vaudeville as Zelenskyy may be, he is still fighting some stern enemies.
Understandable. I imagine it’d be interesting to read, but I can imagine why you wouldn’t want to deal with it.
Sympathies to your father and grandfather.
But as for that being all you need to know and forget about that precious peace of history and why Trump is about ready to cut that cord, I think the issue that is often forgotten is that sometimes it isn’t down to POTUS. In particular people tend to overlook how around the time Wilhelm II and a host of German military leadership – fearful of clashes with the US (both military standoffs in the Pacific and Caribbean and economic ones, with US companies making inroads against major German syndicates) and pushed by their own particular ideological soup began fighting a kind of little known but lethal one sided cold war with the US in Hispanic America (ranging from Mexico to Argentina), and even drew up plans for a “preemptive” war on the US drawn up and redrawn several times in the 1890s and early 1900s.
Wilhelm II and the Admiralty gladly talked about “Copenhagenizing” the United States Navy out of the blue and shelling Wall Street as a grandiose symbol of the Divine Right of Kings against “Anglo-Saxon” and “Jewish” “Capital”, mostly dissuaded from actually enacting any of this due to having more pressing fish to fry.
Sometimes cutting the cord isn’t enough. Sometimes the enemy will be your enemy because they hate you and what you stand for, even half a world away.
It’s telling that Woodrow Wilson was by far the most pro-German President we have ever had in the US, but after half a decade even he was driven up a wall (with the Zimmerman Telegram and the German rejection of the Sussex Pledge being the last straws) and pushed to declare war against his statist, anti-constitutionalist senpais.
That doesn’t mean we need a new Wilson or Putin is the new Kaiser. But it also doesn’t mean he’s not, and that I’d be leery about how effectively we’ll be able to cut the cord.
the other chuck casts back to WWI for his authority.
Otay.
My father told very little of his experiences is France in the fall of 1944, weapons platoon machine gunner; what wounded him (mortar), why, because he was standing up. Big divot in his right calf, but stayed in as a MP. A recollection of an MP in Ft. Leavenworth and hanging of a soldier convictred of murder, yep, murderers, rapists, black marketeers in Ft. Leavenworth in the late 1940s. He served for 20 yrs, SFC, when retired in the mid 1960s. His step brother flew in B-24s from Italy. Relatives on my mother’s side fought in the Pacific.
But am I a veteran? Nope, just immersed in the military culture until I went away to college.
If your man doesn’t ride a pony, that’s good to know after hearing crickets for three years.
I don’t think we’re looking deeply enough at this or to what Trump’s ultimate goal seems to be. To be honest, this wear goes back to 94 when we talked Ukraine into giving up its weapons. And then when Obama screwed with the presidential politics in the country. Now, the deep state and the globalist Europeans are trying to keep an unwinnable war going, and Zelensky knows he can grift off the US until we put a stop to it. He, the globalists and the war machine are the only ones winning off writing them unlimited checks. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian people are being betrayed by all this. But that started over a decade ago and not just with the latest incursion. There is no good solution — other than merely stopping the war, which at least would stop the killing.
@Tom:Ukraine into giving up its weapons.
Ukraine never had nuclear weapons. Russia had nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil, and had control of them from Moscow, just like the US has in other countries. Those weapons were incapable of deterring Russia because they were Russian weapons.
”Ukraine never had nuclear weapons. Russia had nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil…”
If Ukraine had kept them, those weapons would have been dismantled and rebuilt into Ukrainian weapons.
Trump’s “loose cannon” persona is what keeps tyrants from getting too frisky.
The Z man from UKRAINE came to sign a deal for a partnership on mineral rights, and, possibly at the last minute (on advice from Susan Rice) demanded security guarantees. Which is the WW3 threat Trump referred to. While it may seem unfair that Ukraine is being pushed to the sidelines in these negotiations, after what was seen yesterday, it’s probably necessary to get anything done.
Turtler:
I’m not sure whether you’re saying you watched the meeting or not.
In case you haven’t, though – I provide my own transcript of one part of the meeting here. It’s the part where Zelensky disagrees with Trump on how much Europe has helped Ukraine. You might be interested – it doesn’t require any viewing of the debacle.
Also, please see this comment of mine which features an excerpt from Zelensky’s September 2024 interview with The New Yorker, where he is critical as well as condescending towards Vance, and somewhat critical and condescending towards Trump although less so. He seems to have not considered that Trump/Vance might win.
Some confuse the nuclear weapons that were produced by the USSR and nuclear weapons controlled by The Russian Federation after the demise of the USSR.
Nuclear weapons were in Ukrainian possession after the USSR went to sing in the celestial choir.
The USSR was not the same entity as The Russian Federation.
Not rocket surgery.
Did the USSR abide with it’s treaty obligations better than The Russian Federation has?
om, I do not know where you think I “cast back to WW1 for his authority.”
I do not have any more knowledge of the intricacies of that event than what I learned in high school world history and a one semester cruise through European history nearly 60 years ago. What I do have are childhood memories of my old but very erudite father railing, and the scrapbook of pictures and momentos he left behind. Dead bodies in fields and ditches labeled “Dead Huns” and “Kaisers Killing Field”. It was all I could do to memorize and pass the history classes, and promptly forget because of the associations.
Now compound that with my only brother, half-brother, who was 17 years my senior. After graduating Christian Brothers boarding school and while at university, he was drafted into the army and ended up in Korea for 2 years. He came back a hulk, sunken eyes, missing teeth, one cigarette after another. They’d put the troops on amphetamines. He was Army Intelligence but that seemed to be worse than front line duty. I’d been given his bedroom above a basement that my father had turned into a bedroom for his return. I would wake up in the middle of the night hearing his screams as our parents would rush down to console him. Like our father he had a brilliant mind, became a Civil War buff and historian, and later in life a city newspaper editor and teacher. But no matter, his scars lasted his lifetime.
Then there’s my mother’s younger brother in WW2…
Then there’s my own Vietnam era crap…which pales in comparison.
And Zelensky wants to keep this shit going?
And Putin wants to keep this shit going?
And who is trying to stop it, to no avail?
WAR – Edwin Starr 1970
War, huh, yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, uhh
War, huh, yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing
Say it again, y’all
War, huh (good God)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, listen to me, oh
War, I despise
‘Cause it means destruction of innocent lives
War means tears to thousands of mother’s eyes
When their sons go off to fight
And lose their lives
I said, war, huh (good God, y’all)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, just say it again
War (whoa), huh (oh Lord)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, listen to me
It ain’t nothing but a heart-breaker
(War) Friend only to The Undertaker
Oh, war it’s an enemy to all mankind
The thought of war blows my mind
War has caused unrest
Within the younger generation
Induction then destruction
Who wants to die? Oh
War, huh (good God y’all)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing
Say it, say it, say it
War (uh-huh), huh (yeah, huh)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, listen to me
It ain’t nothing but a heart-breaker
(War) It’s got one friend that’s The Undertaker
Oh, war, has shattered many a young man’s dreams
Made him disabled, bitter and mean
Life is much too short and precious
To spend fighting wars each day
War can’t give life
It can only take it away, oh
War, huh (good God y’all)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, say it again
War (whoa), huh (oh Lord)
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing, listen to me
It ain’t nothing but a heart breaker
(War) Friend only to The Undertaker, woo
Peace, love and understanding, tell me
Is there no place for them today?
They say we must fight to keep our freedom
But Lord knows there’s got to be a better way, oh
War, huh (God y’all)
What is it good for? You tell me (nothing)
Say it, say it, say it, say it
War (good God), huh (now, huh)
What is it good for?
Stand up and shout it (nothing)
”The Z man from UKRAINE came to sign a deal for a partnership on mineral rights…”
No, he did not. Zelensky publicly stated at least three times the previous week that Ukraine would not sign such a lopsided agreement.
”…possibly at the last minute (on advice from Susan Rice) demanded security guarantees.”
There was nothing last-minute about it. Zelensky has been stating since at least last spring that security guarantees were a minimum requirement to any agreement Ukraine would sign.