Once again, will the hostage deal take place?
Hamas is not known for keeping its word.
Netanyahu has issued this statement today:
“We will be unable to move forward with the framework until we receive the list of the hostages who will be released, as was agreed,” Netanyahu.
“Israel will not tolerate violations of the agreement,” he declared.
Bruce Hoffman, an expert with the US Council on Foreign Relations, told The Post the hitch could ultimately derail the fragile accord. “One has to ask if Hamas isn’t deliberately sabotaging the deal,” he said.
“This is what they agreed to. It seemed the most basic of all the demands by the Israelis.”
“One has to ask”? One doesn’t have to ask. The sadists of Hamas lie and play games, in addition to everything else they do. They want to exact the maximum suffering from Israel and the maximum gain for themselves, if possible.
Perhaps they will go through with the deal. Perhaps they won’t, and if they don’t they will of course blame Israel, as will more than half the world and at least some of the desperate families of the hostages. Perhaps the Hamas terrorists know where the hostages are. Perhaps they don’t. Perhaps they’ve been bluffing all this time and the hostages are dead (although I happen to think a significant number – at least 25 or 30 – are still alive).
This seems as good a time as any to repeat and clarify something I’ve said before. Many people believe that if Israel did not negotiate for the freedom of the hostages, the refusal would end hostage-taking by Islamic terrorists such as Hamas. I disagree. I think hostage-taking is a win for Hamas no matter what happens. They get the pleasure of having total control of the hostages. What a sense of power! That part of their motivation is similar to what drove someone like Ariel Castro, the man who kidnapped and tortured the three young girls in Cleveland, Ohio, for many years.
Not only can the Hamas kidnappers inflict pain and suffering on the hostages, and wield the power of life and death over them and release periodic videos of their pathetic state, but they cause the hostage families and millions of Israels and Israeli-sympathizers around the world to suffer. The taking of hostages – whether Israel bargains for their lives or not – also increases division and anger within Israel. These phenomena are their own rewards to those who hate Jews, Israel, and Israelis. Getting terrorists back in an exchange is a bonus, but it is not the only point and IMHO it may not even be the most major point of the whole undertaking.
Netanyahu added that the incoming Trump administration has promised support for a renewed military offensive if Gaza breaks the agreement (emphasis mine) “If we do have to resume fighting, we will do so in new ways and with very great power.”
Three hostages – of thirty-three in the first phase of the exchange – are expected to be released tomorrow, if all goes well.
What 2 or 3 every Sun. A lot of pressure on Israel to not retaliate when (notice I did not say “if”) Hamas screws it all up.
Shocking to me that the Israelis and many others are still talking about the hostages…what, like over 15 months already?
Back on October 17, 2023 – medical examiners were still trying to ‘identify as many as 1,400 butchered & burned bodies of Israeli victims.’ No one seems to speak of those any more—those 1,400 Israelis victims.
Dr. Chen Kugel said he didn’t ‘know if we will be able to take DNA from these samples because they are very charred … It’s like a crematorium.’
Around November 6, 2023 – whilst trying to make sense out of ‘a completely charred mass of flesh’ – medical examiners couldn’t determine if it was human until they did a CT scan on it.
Where are the cries & justice for those two Israeli victims…after what, like over 15 months ago?!
1) “They were burned while tied together”: The gut-wrenching work of identifying victims of the Hamas attack
2) Evidence on Display at Israel’s Forensic Pathology Center Confirms Hamas’ Atrocities
After some 15 months the Israelis are still negotiating with with Hamas & Gazans for ever how many live hostages there still are…and however many dead bodies of hostages.
Too much talk and Dallying have gone on for these long 15++ months. There should have been at least 1-million dead Gazans some 13 months ago, IMHO, and some 2-million dead Gazans some 14-15 months.
Sorry about the ‘with with’ and ’14-15′ bad math…just get too choked up every time I think of those ‘Two spinal cords‘ bound and burned together like that…
Karmi:
No need to apologize. And I understand being choked up over what happened on October 7.
Here’s the question I have — not for you, but just in general: would killing 1 million Gazans have stopped their violent intentions and acts? Their killing is so irrational to me, but it is motivated by their desire to rid the territory of Israelis. You and I might not understand that, but it makes sense to them and doesn’t lend itself to any negotiation or modification. And even if someone managed to kill every person living in what is now Gaza and the West Bank, their bloody desire to displace all Israelis is alive and well in other parts of the Middle East, and even in Europe and the USA. You don’t have to kill people, you need to kill an idea. Not an easy thing.
they grieved for a long time, they have fought for more than a year on two fronts, north and south, we can’t forget beirut was the training base for the glider operation
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryvco00cvke#autoplay
for what it’s worth, those that suffered through this hell, like daniel in the lion’s den, combined with the valley of the shadow of death, deserved release, how many more marauders will be let go
FWIW, the first release of three hostages occurred.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2025/01/hamas-releases-first-three-female-captives-as-hostages-for-terrorists-deal-begins/
@ F – and thanks.
Israel wasn’t prepared on Oct 7 – which now has them over 15 months later negotiating for hostages with celebrating Gazans. Gazans Shields having parades for their beloved victors Hamas. Killing 1 million Gazans some 13 months ago, and if hostages weren’t turned over and Hamas surrendering then killing another 1 million Gazans during the next 1-2 months would’ve cut down on the parade size now. Living hostages would’ve already been returned to Israel…as well as remains of dead hostages, and Hamas would’ve surrendered—if any were left to surrender.
Shields: ‘war shields can be both defensive and offensive, depending on their design, cultural context, and how they are used in combat.‘ Shields are weapons and weapons can be destroyed legally in war. Humans, schools, hospitals, etc. being used as weapons can be legally destroyed – maybe not in the opinion of the UN or World Court, but they don’t count since they say Israel killing a Gazan in defense is a crime. During these 15 months Israel has proven that Hamas uses Gazans, schools, and hospitals as weapons (Shields) so Israel needs to remember this.
I understand that simple fact. For decades the Gazans have been shown teaching their children to hate the Israelis. Throughout history peoples have sought to kill other peoples because they hate them.
If Israel had ignored the world opinion during the first two months and killed 1 million Gazans – they would not be foolishly negotiating for hostages now.
We disagree 100% on that.
• Death penalty opponents believe that the death penalty is immoral, unjust, and violates a person’s right to life.
• Death penalty proponents argue that it’s a just punishment for the worst crimes and that it can provide closure for victims and their families. They also believe it can deter crime and prevent re-offending.
Death penalties don’t stop murders, rapes, or kidnapping or the idea of committing such crimes.
Karmi:
What you advocate was never possible for Israel, for a host of reasons. They would have lost the support of what is really their most helpful (usually) ally, the US – and that’s just for starters. They would have lost the support of their own citizens except for a small minority of hardliners. In addition, 2 million Israelis are Arabs and that is 20% of the population, and that group would not have countenanced it. Israel might also have lost the Saudis and that crowd, whose cooperation is valuable to them.
You can imagine going back to carnage on the scale of WWII, but it would not have gotten the results you think it would.
People speak with perfect hindsight, which is foolish, there were four election in the interim between Bibi’s return to power, the balance of power largely among the red-green party was the arab party, (i’m still not convinced that member of that faction, were not aware of some of the planning) then they had the puppet biden administration making every demand on israel, and lavishing abundant funds on not just Gaza but the PA, then you have UNWRA, which runs the media campaign for the Palestinians, in large part largely in Europe, the moppet version of greta, the niece of one of the suicide bombers in Netanya if memory serves was doing the rounds,
then you have the upper ranks of the intel committee and army, like Eisenkot
like the head of military intelligence clearly not the ball,
F:
You write: “Their killing is so irrational to me, but it is motivated by their desire to rid the territory of Israelis.” That’s a fiction – or rather, an understatement. Depends what is meant by “the territory.” Gaza has had no Israelis for almost 20 years. But the Gazans consider all of Israel their territory. In that sense, they’d like to rid “their” territory of Israelis – in other words, eliminate the state of Israel. But that’s not all. They’d like to rid the world of Jews.
Just got an email from my Israeli cousin. They are watching the release of the first three hostages on TV, and watching the ugly spectacle of a Hamas-controlled crowd on the Gaza side showing support for the Hamas barbarians.
(Sorry, somehow missed this thread so am reposting what I posted a moment ago in the thread with the greatly detailed video on the hostage deal.)
Neo,
You weren’t kidding, great information in that video. Particularly around the nuances of some of terms of the agreement. I’m coming around to the view that this is a decent deal for Israel. They at least guarantee the release of some hostages, who may not have much time, and they will then restart the war as soon as Hamas violates the agreement.
I also think there is something to a society having that “no man left behind” ethos. Yes, it creates yet another incentive to take future hostages, and the release of so many Palestinian prisoners creates more future danger, but I can see how a culture could rationally “decide” that they as individuals will all take on some marginally higher future risk as the cost of returning today’s living and breathing and identifiable hostage.
Can they more easily track the movements of those prisoners released for some intelligence? I might send them back with pagers, or maybe spread a rumor that they have been implanted with tracking device or explosives that can detonated at any time.
On the lighter side, I chuckled towards the end of the video when he commented that they were very deliberate in the language used when they approached Trump, saying “only you can get this deal done. Only you.” Figuring that would give him just a bit more motivation to get it done.
neo
Yeah, some really great support from America…
I haven’t done in depth research on that, but a quick search disagrees with your statement there…
?!? Roughly half of Americans don’t want Trump, but Trump gets sworn in tomorrow anyway…
That would’ve hurt – if the Saudis really cared about Gazans & Iranians…and I’m not so sure they do. Making decisions based on what other people think isn’t always a good idea, IMHO.
We’ll agree to disagree.
The death penalty CAN deter crime and prevent re-offending. For example, had Sinwar been executed for the murders he committed, he would not have been around to be released from prison in an earlier swap, and he’d’ve not been available to plan and lead the October 7 massacre.
many of the emirates and kingdoms that includes the uae and jordan did not distinguish themselves in the subsequent events after october 7th, but then again the incoming administration took pains to punish them the former for their complex marital situation, the fbi got involved in the emir’s estranged wife, of course the Lebanese situation seems not to change much behind the scenes, the magnate is traded for the general as tony badran informs us, they were all enablers behind the scenes,
Even Samson would have been hard pressed on this set up, there was much progress in these two campaigns, more than has been achieved in a generation, with remarkable resistance all around
Karmi:
Biden certainly did not give “great” support, nor did I say he did. However, he gave vital support in terms of arms and ammunition. Without that, Israel would have been in much bigger trouble. In practical terms, it needed American help. In the future, Israel plans to be more self-sufficient. But on October 7 it was not.
I don’t know what your “quick search” involves, but most Israelis do not support killing millions of Gazans.
The Arabs of Israel are not equivalent to a political group in the US that doesn’t like Trump. They are ethnically connected to the Palestinians and could constitute a terrorist group in Israel if Israel had done what you suggested.
And the Saudis et al gave support behind the scenes, and more importantly, stayed out of the way of what Israel was doing. The Saudis don’t care about Gazans or Iranians – in fact, they don’t like them – but in the eyes of the world they must pretend to care, and if millions of Gazans had been killed they would have had to do something to prove their pan-Arab bona fides.
F. — “You need to kill an idea.”
If the operation in Gaza had continued, and if Israel had succeeded in crushing Hamas, the things that REALLY needs to be done is some kind of “de-Hamas-ification.” The children are raised on Jew hate. Text books contain story problems: “If there are ten Jews and a heroic Hamas soldier kills six, how many Jews are left to kill?” The children’s show that is supposed to be something like Sesame Street had characters talking about how evil the”Jewish occupiers of Muslim land” are. Personally, I’d love to see Israel invite an army of Mormon missionaries to work on converting the people of Gaza. That’d go a long way toward “de-Hamas-ification.”
On eliminating the Jew-hating indoctrination, our first step, which I hope Trump will promptly take, should be removing all US support for UNWRA. Removing US funding of the PA would also help a lot.
Boy, post EO release, tomorrow evening’s comments here are going to be really interesting to read!!
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F. — “You need to kill an idea.”
The idea that needs to be killed is Islam itself. The Quran etc. is where the “word of Allah” has spoken about the need to subdue or kill Jews and others who resist Islamic dominance across the world.
This is going to be very difficult, but I gather many folks in Muslin societies are already either ignoring their religious “duties” or only going through the motions of worship to avoid other problems from their government or fellow citizens. They just avoid actions that might appear to be apostatical or heretical. [Perhaps Kate and our resident retired diplomates can amplify or correct me on this?]
But we also have an opportunity to pursue a major psy op on these societies.
Recent Western scholarship (especially over the last few decades but extending back to the mid/late 1800’s) is showing that the Quran is just a man made book, with evolving content and changing interpretations, often with a Christian precedence or major influence, plus clearly copying stories and content from the OT and the NT. To some degree it is basically a bastardization of Judaism. Coupled with that is evidence Mecca was not the trading center it was claimed to be in the 7th century, and even that Muhammad as an actual historical figure never existed (or at a minimum not in Mecca, but maybe Petra?).
Perhaps we start with the more benign countries of Morroco or Indonesia? Work back through Pakistan and Turkey, etc. Of course Iran is ripe for a regime change if not a change in religion, per se.
We can’t really change them from the outside, but we can give some of the insiders the intellecutal ammunition they can use to help in a reformation and/or revolution.
@ Paul > “I also think there is something to a society having that “no man left behind” ethos. ”
This used to be a controlling ethos in the US military — the movie “Saving Private Ryan” is an example, but there are other films with at least some recognition of that duty.
One of the most galling aspects of the Biden Afghanistan debacle was his leaving so many American civilians, Afghan allies, and possibly even service members behind (although I’m not sure on that last group, his precipitate and bungled withdrawal certainly led to the deaths of too many soldiers).