Hostages: deal or no deal?
Israel says not so fast:
Israel’s government is aiming to vote Saturday night, local time, to accept the terms of a ceasefire and hostage agreement, multiple outlets reported, delaying implementation of a deal that negotiators hoped to go into effect on Sunday.
While President Biden, President-elect Trump, and Qatar’s emir announced Wednesday that a deal had been agreed between Israel and Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed beginning the internal Israeli process of approving the deal.
There is dissension in Netanyahu’s cabinet:
Diaspora Affairs and Combatting Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli (Likud) threatened in a lengthy statement on Thursday to resign his position as a minister if the incoming hostage deal terms include a retreat from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border or “if we do not return to fight in order to complete the goals of the war.”
I trust very little that I read about this deal. It seems to still be in a state of flux, plus I don’t trust reporting in general. However, from what I’ve seen, I think both of his stated goals are being met, although I’ve also read articles that seem to state the opposite.
One of the things that seems to matter – or that might matter – is this statement of Trump’s. Strip away the bragging (difficult, I know; there’s so much of it) and pay attention to the promise itself [emphasis mine]:
This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies. I am thrilled American and Israeli hostages will be returning home to be reunited with their families and loved ones. With this deal in place, my National Security team, through the efforts of Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, will continue to work closely with Israel and our Allies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven. We will continue promoting PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH throughout the region, as we build upon the momentum of this ceasefire to further expand the Historic Abraham Accords. This is only the beginning of great things to come for America, and indeed, the World! We have achieved so much without even being in the White House. Just imagine all of the wonderful things that will happen when I return to the White House, and my Administration is fully confirmed, so they can secure more Victories for the United States!
Gaza is full of terrorists, and that was the case even without the release of 1000+ more who are presently in Israeli prisons and are slated for release in the deal.
That is, if the deal goes through. It’s not over till the Israeli cabinet sings. And until the exchange happens. And until Hamas doesn’t violate the ceasefire or break the deal in other ways. And even then it’s hardly over. As Trump says, this is only the beginning, whether of “wonderful things that will happen” during Trump’s turn, or of the hostage deal itself.
ADDENDUM:
Almost all the commentary I read or hear about the deal is that it’s awful, terrible, a surrender, shocking, a betrayal by Trump. I think that’s a very shortsighted way to look at it, although of course it might end up that way. But as I believe I wrote in another post on the subject, this deal is like an iceberg and most of it is unseen: what Trump promised, what Hamas will ultimately do, what the Israelis will ultimately do, and whether there was any other way to get some of the hostages back. There was not, IMHO.
I’ve looked for someone who agrees with me on this, and I found this clip from Ben Shapiro. He’s nothing if not articulate, and he articulates my position very well. The portion I’ve cued up is a little over five minutes long:
This so-called “hostage deal” is a revolting farce. Biden’s back room is responsible, and so are the voters who elected Dopey Joe. Netanyahu should be righteous, not a coward in the face of evil.
Delaware, what do you stand for? You kept Biden in Congress since he was barely eligible because of his young (29) age.
Cicero:
Please see the ADDENDUM to the post.
neo:
Agree with you and Shapiro. I think this deal is complicated and much is still yet hidden. I suspect that Trump and Netanyahu have gamed this out more deeply.
We shall see.
Ben Shapiro was a world-class violinist when he was younger? I did not know that.
I think this should be seen as advantaging Israel in the present.
Islam’s holy book says to kill Jews. This is not going to end, ever.
Being always prepared, all the time, not presuming things are improving, is going to have to be a permanent part of Israel’s culture and politics.
When a nation makes aggressive war, losing it doesn’t necessarily disprove the idea.
The culture which called for it, allowed it, grew institutions to make it happen, must be crushed.
See Germany after the two World Wars. I knew a guy who was in the occupation troops. Not the guys there when the war was over, but the actual occupation units.
They made a point of being intimidating. He said you had to be six feet tall. Not been able to corroborate that. Uniform for duty was a mix of formal blouse and combat fatigue pants and boots.
Much of the time, the head gear was a polished helmet liner. This was intimidating, presumably, since the Germans were used to seeing guys in helmets and that ratio of “head” to shoulder. Now, what looked like a helmet but was smaller gave a smaller head to shoulder ratio which is a sign of larger people.
Not sure how often this was followed, but the point was to use the occupation troops’ very appearance to help crush that part of German culture which had survived the European Usual ending of WW I.
How that can be accomplished with regard to Islam so its adherents stop following the holy book does not immediately occur to me, except in the most horrifyingly apocalyptic visions.
And the holy book has some harsh things to say about what to do to unbelievers of non-Jewish origin.
Well thats one interpretation
https://x.com/CarolineGlick/status/1879990868876357843
Neo-
so we shall see, shall we?
I am dubious about a righteous outcome to these “negotiations” with its many buried details.
One must not compromise or even negotiate with raw evil. Not even at the cost of an earlier death, since Death awaits us all; just matter of when.
Trump has a bad habit of boxing himself in. Is it because of ego, or just being a braggart?
The other side of the negotiation can make you look a fool for setting a hard deadline, and you certainly lose some leverage.
I just don’t understand that tactic.
VDH recently dropped a video which is the clearest explanation of Trump’s negotiating tactics I’ve encountered:
_____________________________________
Introduction to Trump’s Trolling Tactics
The traditional exegesis of all of these tactics is that he’s trolling. Going back to The Art of the Deal (a ghostwritten book), The Comeback, etc., we see a pattern in Trump’s approach.
In The Art of the Deal, Trump’s exegesis explains:
* When you go into a room to negotiate, you present yourself as wild and demand 100%.
* During the negotiation, the other party starts making reciprocal demands on you.
* Eventually, you act as though you feel put upon, and then walk out of the room with a 55% or 60% advantage.
* Afterward, you never make fun of the other person—instead, you praise them.
We’ve seen this tactic in action, such as with North Korea during Trump’s presidency.
–“Victor Davis Hanson: Trump and ‘The Art’ of the ‘Troll'”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gWPWrjtV01s
_____________________________________
I’ve learned to wait and see with Trump.
It may be that Trump feels it important to get some hostages back now and help kick off his presidency with a bang. This will give him more power later to fix the deal’s drawbacks.
Besides, it’s a given that Hamas will sooner or later violate the ceasefire, then Israel can bring the hammer down with US support.
One thing I never see people talking about is whether they, if they were in the position of a hostage, would be happy with their country pulling out all stops to rescue them if it means sacrificing the safety of a great deal more people down the road. I personally think I’d be very angry if I knew my countrymen were in greater danger long term, and that there was a high probability of war and violence continuing for years to come, for my sake. This is something I’ve thought about for months. I can’t wrap my mind around being grateful to be rescued at such a high cost. Speaking from the privileged vantage point of someone who’s never been held hostage, of course.
However, I do understand that right now, there might be more to the deal than we realize, and I sure hope so.
A direct link to Caroline Glick’s podcast, via Miguel’s comment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fnr_1CQ2dvA
“Everything to Know about the Israel-Hamas Hostage Deal | Caroline Glick In-Focus”
50 minutes.
Re: Being a hostage and not wishing to endanger my country
Shadow:
I’ve had that thought too. Strictly hypothetical, of course.
Glick covers the known basics, the reason Israel was surprised to have Biden’s deal be the basis of the plan, the possible consequences, and reveals some things I hadn’t heard before, mostly because (she says) they are either new revelations or went under the radar until now.
Special Envoy Witkoff, who “did the deal,” has monetary ties to Qatar, a leading sponsor of terrorist groups, related to a real estate quagmire that the Arabs bailed him out of.
An Egyptian who should know lied to Shin Bet’s leader about the indications Israel picked up just prior to 10/7, that Hamas was preparing to attack, saying they were all false.
The Shin Bet guy should never have believed him, but apparently they had a “good relationship.”
Even Glick doesn’t know what Witkoff promised Bibi from Trump (if anything) to get his agreement. She did read the same passage Neo highlighted above, and counsels that we have faith in God, Trump, and Netanyahu to do the right thing for Israel.
@ huxley – Neo discussed Shapiro’s musical talent in October.
https://thenewneo.com/2024/10/04/open-thread-10-3-2024-2/
Here’s what she posted about him.
https://www.themix.net/tv-shows/ben-shapiro-violin-schindlers-list/