Hostage deal rumors
It’s now a week till Trump’s Inauguration Day – which is also Martin Luther King Day, by the way – and once again there are rumors that a hostage deal is nigh.
We’ve heard such rumors before. Are they real this time? Beats me. I think there is a slightly greater chance of it happening now because of Trump’s impending presidency than before the election, but there are still major stumbling blocks. The main one is that Hamas wants Israel to give up way too much. That is my fear as well.
From the article, for what it’s worth:
An Egyptian official, meanwhile, said that there had been good progress overnight but also acknowledged that it would likely take a few more days, although the sides were aiming for a deal before Trump’s January 20 inauguration. A third official also assessed that a deal was possible before Trump enters the White House, and said that although they were not yet wrapped up, the talks were in a good place.
A Hamas official said a number of contentious issues still need to be resolved, including an Israeli commitment to end the war and details about the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and the release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners. The official was not authorized to brief media and spoke anonymously. The Egyptian official confirmed that those issues were still being discussed.
Israel has previously insisted that any ceasefire must not prevent it from continuing the war at a later stage, and the matter has been a key sticking point between the sides. Israel has made the demolition of Hamas’s military and governance capabilities one of its war goals.
If that sounds familiar, it’s because it is.
there are still major stumbling blocks. The main one is that Hamas wants Israel to give up way too much.
That has always worked in the past for Hamas. Remember a thousand for one? I doubt that Israel is willing to give up much this time. I doubt that Israel consents to withdrawing completely from Gaza, as it doesn’t want Hamas to be rearmed. Don’t want to go through the last 15 months another time.
No status quo ante, as Israel doesn’t want a repetition of the last 15 months. Hamas’s violations of previous ceasefires show that the impending ceasefire is temporary.
What does Hamas have to lose by stalling? I think that’s the key question here. I think they have the same mentality regarding troop losses as the Russians do — just keep sending in troops. As long as they have troops — and civilians — the’ll just keep letting them get killed. It offends you, it offends me, it probably offends Israelis. But it doesn’t seem to offend Hamas or the people of Gaza. Or if they are offended, so what? I don’t see this ending well. Or soon.
I’m still optimistic, better than 50-50 anyway, that the hostages will be released at the last minute, just as Iran released its embassy hostages when Reagan was inaugurated.
I think Iran/Hamas/Hezbollah/Youthis have a lot more to lose with Trump’s “HELL TO PAY” hanging over their heads. Trump wasn’t just talking about Gaza, but the whole Middle East.
Hamas is composed of islamic fanatics and criminals. There are no “decent” people among its membership. 90% of the “civilians” in Gaza are ardent Hamas supporters. There is no possibility of entering into any agreement with them that they will not break as soon as it is in their interest to do so. Taqqiya is their fall-back position on everything. Their religion tells them that cheating all who are outside the ummah is admirable and killing them should they fail to capitulate and pay the jizyah is acceptable. Any talk of releasing hostages by Hamas is just more of its taqqiya tactic. Frankly, I suspect that most of the remaining hostages are dead. Only the fools composing the Israeli hard left wing and the idiots who populate the dying “Biden administration” still think hostage release is a possibility. Thank God there is only a week left before the remaining ordure is shoveled out of The White House. I hope we can eventually scrub out the stink it leaves.
Maybe I missed it, but shouldn’t they be discussing surrender terms for Hamas in lieu of their continued dismantlement and destruction?
Some of the parallels with the Reagan Presidency make one think. Even President Carter’s passing just before the inauguration.
This time, instead of the Pope and Thatcher working with the U.S. it looks like Milei and Poilievre may be helping to spread freedom and capitalism.
F on January 13, 2025 at 5:00 pm said:
What does Hamas have to lose by stalling?
They risk whatever Trump might do. Is the leadership still in Qatar?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Biden Admin works to protect their leadership from possible Trump actions.
IF, a big IF, there are any hostages still alive, and they are released before Trump takes the Oath of Office, Biden and the Dems will try to take credit for it.
Israel has made the demolition of Hamas’s military and governance capabilities one of its war goals.”
Why do I have this feeling that the “right hand” of Hamas doesn’t know what the “left hand” of Hamas is doing? Who knows who has the hostages? Who knows how many tunnels still exist? Who’s trustworthy at the table? Who do you hold accountable for the next round of rockets?
If I was Israel…I’d be shooting until there was only one “hand” to talk to…maybe beyond that.
‘TOTAL INCOMPETENCY’: Journalist Bari Weiss argues California wildfires are a ‘manmade disaster’
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2025/01/total-incompetency-journalist-bari.html
The evil within me keeps hinting that if Hamas does not come across and release the hostages, we will get to see what Trump’s “All Hell” consists of. Could be impressive. If they do release them then maybe the IDF will be able to run an offensive without having to tip-toe around about not harming the hostages. This should be interesting.
It occurs to me that Trump’s threat about “HELL TO PAY” is probably one of the things Jen Rubin considers to be unacceptably authoritarian.
Too bad.
@ Another Mike > “If they do release them then maybe the IDF will be able to run an offensive without having to tip-toe around about not harming the hostages.”
This may be one reason Hamas keeps stalling on releasing them.
Considering the damage the IDF has done while tip-toeing through the two-lips (taqiyya style), I’m sure Hamas doesn’t want them stomping around instead.
I heard that Trump threatened Bibi in no uncertain terms to accept a deal. From what I understand, it is a terrible deal. It frees hundreds of terrorists with blood on their hands, in exchange for hostages, *and without specifying live hostages.*
I hope it is not true. I feel sick just thinking about it.
Sarah Hoyt on Instapundit:
I HAVE VERY MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT THIS
I agree.