Home » Open thread 1/4/2025

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Open thread 1/4/2025 — 32 Comments

  1. I really enjoy these features on “Architectural Digest.”

    My wife and I often have AD on in the background.

  2. Two predictions for 2025, based purely on vibes I am picking up (mainly at X):

    –There will be a lot of manufacturing activity in the US in 2025: startups, expansions, new technologies, reshoring.

    –The fertility rate will show some upward movement.

  3. I see that, as he heads for the door, Biden is giving civilian medals, rewards to all of his leftist supporters and pals–Liz Cheney, Hillary, George Soros, et al–much in the same way some drunken girl on a New Orleans balcony throws out strings of cheap Chinese beads for the passersby below to catch during Mardi Gras.

    From what I can see, these gegaws mean about as much as the little plastic dodads you find in a box of Crackerjacks.

  4. Those medals are the left behinds of garage sales, participation trophies. You can only say FU to America so many times before it become just so much background noise. We get it, the left fundamentally hates this country.

  5. Good morning, people.

    Could someone tell me how to insert an image in the commenter’s avatar box?

    Also, how to insert quoted text in the body of a comment?

    Thanks!

  6. IrishOtter49:

    To start of the quote use a left arrow blockqoute right arrow.

    To end the quote use a left arrow / blockquote right arrow.

    left arrow

  7. A suspect has been arrested for arson in the destruction of Bidwell Mansion in Gerard’s home town of Chico. The guy’s mugshot resembles Luigi except for the curly hair. He has a similar look of disdain bordering on a smirk.

    “CHICO, Calif. – A Chico man was taken into custody Thursday in connection to the arson fire that destroyed the historic Bidwell Mansion in December.

    “On January 2, law enforcement officers arrested 30-year-old Kevin Carlson of Chico on felony arson charges.

    “Butte County District Attorney Mike Ramsey says that Carlson was arrested on charges of intentional arson, with an enhancement of using an accelerant.”

  8. IrishOtter49 – here’s a link to a pic for blockquotes, Bold & Italic text, and to link an article:

    HTML shorts

    Not sure how I got my avatar – but possibly thru my blog link…in the “Website” block below Comment area.

  9. Liz…thanks. I bet Trump reverses that one really fast.

    If someone replaces a gas water heater with an electric one…and that electric one is powered by a gas-fired power plant…then they are replacing a device that converts fuel to heat with probably about 90% efficiency with…

    *A power plant that converts fuel to electricity with about 60% efficiency best case
    *A transmission and distribution network about 90% efficient
    *An electric heater that is by itself close to 100% efficient

    for a total system efficiency of 54%, significantly worse than the gas heater.

  10. Not sure how I got my avatar – but possibly thru my blog link…in the “Website” block below Comment area.

    Karmi:

    Most likely.

    You might enjoy:
    ____________________________

    Do you wanna date my avatar? She’s a star
    And she’s hotter than reality by far
    Wanna date my avatar?

    –The Guild, “Do You Wanna Date My Avatar” (2009)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=urNyg1ftMIU

    ____________________________

    Felicia Day is the hot ginger in front and the lyricist. The song turned into a web series “loosely based on her life as a gamer.” (wiki)

    This was a funny viral in 2009. Online gamers got it. Some commenters are nostalgic for this innocent era.

  11. My first NYC subway ride was 60 years ago, when my 8th grade class went on its class trip to NYC. We sold magazine subscriptions to pay for the trip. Stayed at the Picadilly Hotel. I found the video well worth watching.

    BTW, the NYC subway system houses a sculpture done by my cousin’s husband.

    The video on the subway system brought back memories of riding it. In my early years of riding the subway system, when I stood still trying to figure out where to go, invariably a New Yorker would stop and ask me if they could be of assistance in directing me where to go. Which doesn’t support some common stereotypes of New Yorkers. Run you down if you stand still, etc.

    Speaking of New Yorker stereotypes, consider the stereotype of the New Yorker who is full of contempt for rural hicks or flyover types. I spent my freshman year at a university that consisted of about 25% from NYC. I was from a rural area, but never sensed any contempt from the native New Yorkers about my rural origins. ( I fit in so well–without making an effort to do so– that one of my Jewish classmates thought I was Jewish. Not the first time I have been mistaken for being Jewish. Happened a couple of weeks ago from a neighbor I have known for 20 years. 🙂 ) My take is that the New Yorkers with contempt for rural hicks or flyover types are from rural or flyover country tend to come from those places, who express contempt to show how far they have come from their origins.

    Like David Foster says, it is really dumb to ban gas water heaters, given that most electricity comes from fossil fuel.
    David Foster, my recollection from Thermodynamics classes is that efficiency of converting fuel to electricity is around 40% at best, not 60% at best. A good rule of thumb, I recall, was 33%. But I would have to go back to Kelvin temperatures to check that.

  12. I fit in so well–without making an effort to do so– that some of my Jewish classmates thought I was Jewish…

    Gringo:

    My best friend from Catholic high school graduated from Pepperdine Law on Law Review. He got hired by a top Jewish law firm.

    My friend was smart and swarthy. They assumed he was Jewish! They asked him what synagogue he attended and he said, uh … I’m not Jewish.

    Oopsie.

    They gave him great references and got him hired somewhere else.

  13. David Foster and Gringo:
    I was going to question this as well: “… that efficiency of converting fuel to electricity is around 40% at best, not 60% at best. ”
    But we also need to consider efficiences for the source of the gas, as mine or refinery, and for the distribution (pumps and pipes or trucks), in this analysis.
    You know this of course, but we often forget to make a full womb to tomb comparison. This is not my area of expertise, but I suspect sometimes it can also be difficult deciding just what constitutes the “womb” or the “tomb”, at least for comparison purposes.

  14. A modern CCGT plant will run about 60%…I’ll find a mfrs spec sheet and link it.

    As far as the source of the gas and the transmission pipelines, this will be the same whether the gas is being burned in a home water heater or a power plant gas turbine. However, the distribution pipes going to a residence will indeed result in some extra inefficiency compared with the larger-diameter pipes going to a power plant.

    i

  15. Here’s info on the GE H-series turbines…they say 63-64% efficiency when operated in combined-cycle mode (with steam turbine to recover heat from the turbine exhaust)

    https://www.gevernova.com/gas-power/products/gas-turbines/7ha

    There will be some additional losses in the generator that converts mechanical power into electricity…not a lot, I think, but let’s see what Perplexity has to say:

    https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-the-efficiency-of-a-la-YWX_3bloTmac8nMZt4CAPQ#0

  16. The way the Biden order on the water heaters will be justified is:

    1) We can generate the electricity from wind/solar (ask Germany how that’s going)

    2) People can use heat pump water heaters, which are more efficient (true, but they are also more expensive)

  17. Here’s info on the GE H-series turbines…they say 63-64% efficiency when operated in combined-cycle mode (with steam turbine to recover heat from the turbine exhaust)

    That added cycle to recover waste heat–which I do not recall from traditional efficiency problems–would appear to increase the efficiency to 63-64%. The perplexity link has the 33%-40% efficiency levels that I had recalled.

  18. Open Thread Sunday: I’m conflicted

    The Strategic Winners And Losers of 2024 – Conflicts, Outcomes & the Year Ahead -Perun

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxW-8uONXhI

    Timestamps:
    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:00:45 — What Am I Talking About?
    00:02:56 — the Brief
    00:03:51 — the Axis of Resistance
    00:04:41 — Hezbollah
    00:09:37 — Syria
    00:11:46 — the Houthis
    00:15:45 — Iran
    00:26:02 — the Counterparties
    00:29:52 — the Americas
    00:37:03 — Cuba
    00:39:39 — DPRK
    00:52:59 — Europe
    00:53:49 — the Baltics
    00:56:59 — France
    00:59:31 — Conclusion
    01:03:11 — Channel Update

    Essential Guide To 2024 Naval War In Black Sea – H I Sutton

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjUgb8vaeok

    A new stage of Russian hybrid warfare – Anders Puck Nielsen

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yabwyb14-BQ

    0:00 Intro
    0:20 Pattern of sabotage
    0:55 Hybrid warfare
    1:54 The Western strategy so far
    3:16 Hybrid attacks will intensify
    3:59 Maritime hybrid warfare
    6:22 Countermeasures
    7:15 Dealing with Russia’s shadow fleet
    8:26 A new Western strategy

  19. What’s going on here?! Why would Joshua Steinman say:

    I spent 4yrs on President Trump’s National Security Council – first day to last – and I fear there are mistakes being made NOW re: NSC that will lead to four years of ineffective governance at best, betrayal at worst.

    Out of loyalty to him, I am going public.

    Trump’s CoS Susie Wiles has been doing an excellent job at keeping Trump pretty durn quiet—an amazing job actually.

    Recently saw something about Trump ‘n Wiles wanting admins ‘n cabs running speeches ‘n such thru them before running it in the press.

    Next day Musk is out stirring ‘Thangs up all over Europe ‘n England.

    Today some guy named Joshua Steinman has this out on a – Thread Reader app (apparently it unrolls a long X post?!):

    First: WHAT IS THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL?

    Most people don’t understand what the NSC actually **does**. Most people don’t even know that it it as the White House.

    I’ll lay it out simply:

    If the President is the owner of the football team, the NSC is the Quarterback.

    snip .. When it comes to NSC Staff, PERSONNEL IS POLICY.

    I’m hearing (from multiple people) that a significant % of NSC Staff have been told that they will be allowed to stay.

    This is a serious error if true.

    Removing people like this isn’t personal, its just prudent.

    Is Joshua Steinman being let off the leash to stir ‘Thangs up also? I don’t think this guy is a rogue type – tho don’t recall ever hearing about him…

    An ASIDE on that Thread Reader ‘Thingie’ – main Thread Reader app. Just pasted a long X thread into it and it comes back with the long X post. Nice…very Nice!

    Notice how much news is coming thru X nowadays?

  20. The Perun video om linked to has a couple of interesting factoids. Fast forward to minute 53:00 to Europe and find out that 1in 5 jobs in Denmark is related to Ozempic, which a Danish company produces.
    Also, France is pulling all of it’s military forces in Niger, Chad, Senegal and Ivory Coast. Seems isolationism is a thing, even in Europe, apparently leaving China and Russia the winners there.

  21. and find out that 1in 5 jobs in Denmark is related to Ozempic, which a Danish company produces.
    ==
    You need to check their math.

  22. Re: Biggest wave

    AesopFan:

    Thanks for the surfing link. It doesn’t look 100+ feet to me, but wave sizes are notoriously difficult to gauge.

    That wave was at the big wave surf spot, Mavericks, which is my favorite cautionary tale against the conventional wisdom.

    In this case the conventional wisdom was that there were no big wave surf spots in California comparable to Hawaii. It was inconceivable.

    The big waves at Mavericks were only 20 miles south from San Francisco, just off the famous Pacific Coast Highway. Millions of people drove PCH past the waves. Surfers could easily see the waves but assumed they were unrideable until 1975 when a teenager, Jeff Clark, start riding Mavericks regularly — solo.

    Clark kept trying to get other surfers to come out with him and it took years before a few took him up on the offer.

    Finally Mavericks was “discovered” as a real big wave spot, comparable to Hawaii only colder.

    A famous Hawaiian big wave surfer, Mark Foo, went out at Mavericks on a few hours sleep, get held down after a wipeout, and drowned. Bad luck, I’m sure, but I suspect he underestimated Mavericks.

    How much else do we “know” is wrong and staring us right in the face?

  23. Seems possibly that France finds the threat closer to home, cough Russia, cough. Inconceivable. I’m shocked (sarc), that France might recognize the real world but our isolationists won’t.

  24. The Propaganda Media is Unanimously condemning the Jan4 event at Mar A-Largo, where some 500 people gathered to watch the new documentary “The Eastman Dilemma: Lawfare or Justice. Preceding this — with Trump Watching some 40 minutes in the back of the hall — was a Viva Frei hosted panel on the subject, with John Eastman, Jeff Clark (acting AG? Deputy AG?), and I think Alan Dershowitz…

    At any rate, this new documentary was Premiered at Mar a-Largo, for release on this new J6, 2025 — to outline Eastman’s solution to a fraudulent election and supporting Congress’ role in checking a disputed election process.

    TRAILER https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsrQwkaoDgc

    DESCRIPTION:
    “The Eastman Dilemma: Lawfare or Justice” addresses a critical pain point: the growing reality that attorneys who represent conservative clients are being unfairly targeted and “canceled” by a legal system as it grows increasingly politically biased. There is growing evidence that a two-tiered justice system has emerged, where conservative figures face severe penalties for actions that receive leniency if committed by non-conservatives.

    This injustice not only threatens the integrity of the legal profession but also undermines public confidence in the impartiality of the courts, creating a chilling effect on legal advocacy and free speech. The film aims to expose and challenge these disparities, advocating for equal treatment under the law regardless of political affiliation.

    Documentary Website:
    https://eastmandilemma.com/

    THE BEST newspaper coverage is from The Epoch Times, here:
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/in-new-film-former-trump-attorney-details-struggles-of-conservative-lawyers-5786191

    I EXPECT Viva Frei to share more than he has on his weekly Sunday with Robert Barnes about this event.

  25. om, France was kicked out, leaving Russia and China with more influence on the continent. China, and to a lesser extent Russia, is slowing gaining control of the southern hemisphere.

    France has been forced to pull out of a number of West African nations — including from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in the last two years — following military coups and a rising anti-French sentiment.

    Some countries have since sought closer relations with China and Russia.

    Most recently, Senegal and Chad asked French troops to leave. Chad has been a key ally for France in its fight against Islamist militants, serving as its last foothold in the Sahel region.

    French troops are now only present in Djibouti and Gabon.

    Ivory Coast asks French forces to leave
    https://www.dw.com/en/ivory-coast-asks-french-forces-to-leave/a-71194084

  26. art deco, I misquoted Perun. He said Ozempic accounted for every 1 in 5 jobs created in 2023.

  27. Yes France
    was kicked out, which had nothing to do with isolationism in Europe.

    You do recall that Russia has been kicked out of Syria? Which may impact their imperialist ambitions in Africa and the Middle East. I’m sure you welcome that?

    And what of CCP power projection, surely they are isolationists? Only in that they wish to isolate and dominate the West. You know after that 100 (or is it 200) years of shame thing.

  28. huxley & IrishOtter49:

    Yeah, that ‘Felicia Day is the hot ginger‘! 🙂 I’ve seen some avatars that made you want to date them.

    Can’t stand those moving ‘n flashing GIF avatars tho – they can ruin a comment section, or most any section, IMHO.

    IO49 – Not sure what neo’s rules are on avatars, but mine was made at Gravatar.com…

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