Is a hostage release plan actually in the works?
It’s been about fourteen and a half months since the Israeli hostages were taken to Gaza. It has been a nightmare for their families and friends, and although there is probably some comfort in the fact that the war has been going better than expected lately, it doesn’t change the intensity of the pain and the horror of the imaginings that fill the gap left by little to no information about who is alive and who dead, what hideous psychological and physical torture the hostages themselves have endured, and when and if it will ever end.
And so I keep paying attention to stories such as this:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to hold a high-level meeting on Thursday with top security officials as efforts to reach a hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas appeared to gather momentum, Israeli televion reported Wednesday.
Netanyahu’s planned assessment, which will include Defense Minister Israel Katz and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, comes as CIA chief William Burns reportedly arrived in Qatar Wednesday night to try and hammer out the outstanding issues. Channel 12 news said that if there was progress, senior Israeli officials would join the talks. …
Despite optimism that a deal can be reached in the next few weeks, the report said there are still disagreements on several key issues including the number and identity of the hostages to be freed; a mechanism for the return of displaced Gazans to the north of the strip; the identity of the Palestinian security prisoners to be released as part of the deal; and a mechanism for exiling the most dangerous of those prisoners to other countries.
I seem to recall that during the Obama years, some of the Guantanamo prisoners were released to other countries with a supposed guarantee that they wouldn’t be able to leave those countries, and the promise was not kept. Anyone who believes such promises at this point is very very gullible.
Trump’s impending presidency looms large in these talks:
Hamas is concerned that US President-elect Donald Trump will allow Israel to resume fighting in Gaza at the completion of the first phase of the three-stage ceasefire that is currently in advanced negotiations, four sources familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel.
They are right to be “concerned.”
Trump said again this week that he wants the war in Gaza to end, but an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes he’ll have more flexibility under Trump to resume fighting after the first phase than he would under Biden.
The two things are hardly contradictory. Sometimes the way to end a war is to end it more quickly through decisive victory.
What will Hamas have to gain by releasing the hostages?
One more lopsided prisoner exchange–but Israel is not likely this time to assent to it. Israel would consent to equal exchange–but that would be a slap in the face for Hamas. Granted, Hamas deserves more than just a slap in the face. 🙂
Israel getting out of Gaza–Israel, having seen how Hamas transformed Gaza into a rocket-firing machine w underground citadel, is not likely to consent to status quo ante.Israel is going to want some supervision over the Gaza-Egypt border. But all that is anathema to Hamas.
But if this is only a 60 day deal…
Which brings forth the big question: will Hamas still be ruling Gaza?
With the Biden administration unable to apply any pressure, it is unlikely that the Israelis will agree to anything involving a ceasefire. Just like the bombing of the Houthis sends a message to the Arab world, the closing of Israel’s embassy in Ireland – unsweetened by diplomatic half-truths – is a defiant message to the West.
Netanyahu, his voters, and many other Israelis will absolutely not countenance leaving Hamas standing as a player.
There has never been more than a vanishingly tiny remnant of the Israeli public that puts the return of the hostages before other security considerations. Israelis now understand that the hysterical, emotional campaigns by Israelis telegraphed weakness and actually caused Hamas to perform gangland-style executions of some of the hostages.
Is a hostage release plan actually in the works?
If it is, it’s only for one reason, and we all know what that is.
Perhaps the Israeli gov’t could invite the incoming US SecState to help negotiate the deal.
Neo concluded with “Sometimes the way to end a war is to end it more quickly through decisive victory.”
Yes! Edward Luttwak wrote a memorable article on this point in 1999 in Foreign Affairs, “Give War A Chance”: https://peacelearner.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/edward-luttwak-give-war-a-chance1.pdf
Highly recommended!
Here’s to a tiny hope the Trump administration determines to armtwist the Egyptian gov to open the border to the Gazans who would like to leave Gaza for better lives elsewhere. A small thing, perhaps, and yet a meaningful thing, I believe.
Paul,
Thanks for the interesting link.
Luttwak is a great resource for learning military thought and doctrine.