Is a hostage release plan actually in the works?
It’s been about fourteen and a half months since the Israeli hostages were taken to Gaza. It has been a nightmare for their families and friends, and although there is probably some comfort in the fact that the war has been going better than expected lately, it doesn’t change the intensity of the pain and the horror of the imaginings that fill the gap left by little to no information about who is alive and who dead, what hideous psychological and physical torture the hostages themselves have endured, and when and if it will ever end.
And so I keep paying attention to stories such as this:
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to hold a high-level meeting on Thursday with top security officials as efforts to reach a hostage-ceasefire deal with Hamas appeared to gather momentum, Israeli televion reported Wednesday.
Netanyahu’s planned assessment, which will include Defense Minister Israel Katz and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, comes as CIA chief William Burns reportedly arrived in Qatar Wednesday night to try and hammer out the outstanding issues. Channel 12 news said that if there was progress, senior Israeli officials would join the talks. …
Despite optimism that a deal can be reached in the next few weeks, the report said there are still disagreements on several key issues including the number and identity of the hostages to be freed; a mechanism for the return of displaced Gazans to the north of the strip; the identity of the Palestinian security prisoners to be released as part of the deal; and a mechanism for exiling the most dangerous of those prisoners to other countries.
I seem to recall that during the Obama years, some of the Guantanamo prisoners were released to other countries with a supposed guarantee that they wouldn’t be able to leave those countries, and the promise was not kept. Anyone who believes such promises at this point is very very gullible.
Trump’s impending presidency looms large in these talks:
Hamas is concerned that US President-elect Donald Trump will allow Israel to resume fighting in Gaza at the completion of the first phase of the three-stage ceasefire that is currently in advanced negotiations, four sources familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel.
They are right to be “concerned.”
Trump said again this week that he wants the war in Gaza to end, but an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes he’ll have more flexibility under Trump to resume fighting after the first phase than he would under Biden.
The two things are hardly contradictory. Sometimes the way to end a war is to end it more quickly through decisive victory.
What will Hamas have to gain by releasing the hostages?
One more lopsided prisoner exchange–but Israel is not likely this time to assent to it. Israel would consent to equal exchange–but that would be a slap in the face for Hamas. Granted, Hamas deserves more than just a slap in the face. 🙂
Israel getting out of Gaza–Israel, having seen how Hamas transformed Gaza into a rocket-firing machine w underground citadel, is not likely to consent to status quo ante.Israel is going to want some supervision over the Gaza-Egypt border. But all that is anathema to Hamas.
But if this is only a 60 day deal…
Which brings forth the big question: will Hamas still be ruling Gaza?
With the Biden administration unable to apply any pressure, it is unlikely that the Israelis will agree to anything involving a ceasefire. Just like the bombing of the Houthis sends a message to the Arab world, the closing of Israel’s embassy in Ireland – unsweetened by diplomatic half-truths – is a defiant message to the West.
Netanyahu, his voters, and many other Israelis will absolutely not countenance leaving Hamas standing as a player.
There has never been more than a vanishingly tiny remnant of the Israeli public that puts the return of the hostages before other security considerations. Israelis now understand that the hysterical, emotional campaigns by Israelis telegraphed weakness and actually caused Hamas to perform gangland-style executions of some of the hostages.
Is a hostage release plan actually in the works?
If it is, it’s only for one reason, and we all know what that is.
Perhaps the Israeli gov’t could invite the incoming US SecState to help negotiate the deal.
Neo concluded with “Sometimes the way to end a war is to end it more quickly through decisive victory.”
Yes! Edward Luttwak wrote a memorable article on this point in 1999 in Foreign Affairs, “Give War A Chance”: https://peacelearner.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/edward-luttwak-give-war-a-chance1.pdf
Highly recommended!
Here’s to a tiny hope the Trump administration determines to armtwist the Egyptian gov to open the border to the Gazans who would like to leave Gaza for better lives elsewhere. A small thing, perhaps, and yet a meaningful thing, I believe.
Paul,
Thanks for the interesting link.
Luttwak is a great resource for learning military thought and doctrine.
“That’s what Christmas is all about Charlie Brown” Linus Explains the True Meaning of Christmas – Video
https://commoncts.blogspot.com/2024/12/thats-what-christmas-is-all-about.html
sdferr, 8:56 p.m., the Egyptian government will not admit Gazans for its own protection. They are viewed (rightly, almost always) as radicals who would destabilize Egypt and lead it back to an Islamist regime.
With few exceptions the murdered and the hostages were Leftists from Leftist Kibbutzim and/or the Nova psychedelic trance festival.
The clamor for their release has come from other Leftists in Israel. The hostages are being used by the Left to stop Israel from winning against Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran etc.
If you want to feel sorry for these Israeli Jews look no further than their Leftist Culture that does NOT allow Jews to have defensive weapons. They need permits that are very hard to procure in order for husbands to protect their wives and daughters from being raped or murdered. It is insane and very little has changed except some thousands of permits issued since 10/7 when they should not need them at all. I mean, seriously, you need a damned permit to protect your family when the police and IDF are hours away? Same mentality of course in the US in Blue Cities and Blue States.
The Tatzpitanyot female IDF soldiers were first ignored after months of their observations indicating an attack was coming from Gaza and then they were pretty much abandoned in their bases near Gaza that morning. No one in the IDF has been fired or put on trial for their malfeasance. The Leftist Press and politicians protect these IDF clowns.
The Left in Israel bears 99% of the responsibility for October 7th but the Left blames Netanyahu. Well, of course they do as introspection for these people is impossible as they are Marxist ideologues.
Not suggesting the Gazans stay in Egypt (though that possibility isn’t why Egypt won’t let the Gazans out of the war-zone), but merely leave Gaza across that border to other lands — Jordan, UAE, Libya, Sudan, India, Morrocco, Lebanon, Qatar . . . i.e., wherever as refugees, they choose to go and can be taken in.
Jordan and the UAE probably don’t want them either. What proportion of Gazans actually want to merely have a good life? Those numbers are relatively few.
they look down on their brethren brothers, the Hashemites, not only because black september rising, but one of them killed King Abdullahs grand father,
the UAE because well they think them as day labourers at best,
lawrence was perhaps too much of a dreamer in thinking the Arabs needed to be free, of the Ottomans well it served British war aims, but it introduced some bad habits
of course the Ottomans were not the way they were before even by 1915,
with the Armenians and later the Kurds,
Small correction, miguel, it was the current King Abdullah’s great-grandfather, also named Abdullah, who was assassinated by a Palestinian.