Hostage release negotiations – looking up?
Israel may be getting a big Chanukah present – and more than eight of them. There’s room for very cautious optimism:
“We are the closest to a hostage deal since the last one,” Defense Minister Israel Katz told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.
One-hundred-and-five captives—81 Israelis and 24 foreign nationals—were released during last year’s ceasefire with Hamas that lasted from Nov. 24 to Nov. 30. As of Dec. 16, 100 Israeli hostages remain in Gaza, with 36 having been declared dead.
An Israeli official, previously skeptical about negotiations, confirmed this week that progress has been made in talks aimed at securing the release of Israeli hostages held by the Hamas terror organization in the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, a source familiar with the negotiations told Israel Hayom that talks to formulate a hostages-for-ceasefire deal are expected to be completed by Chanukah, with implementation spread over an extended period.
There have been optimistic reports on this before. What has changed? One obvious thing: the election of Trump – and his ultimatum to Hamas. It’s a very different message than those conveyed by the previous US administration. Also, Iran is much weaker than before and that makes Hamas weaker. And speaking of Hamas being weaker, Sinwar is dead.
How many hostages are alive? No one knows. But I believe the number isn’t zero.
If there is an exchange of Israeli hostages for Pali prisoners, I don’t want to see any more lopsided exchanges–especially since one goal of the Oct 7 attack was to have one more lopsided exchange. That was a realistic goal of Hamas, as Israel had previously consented to a number of lopsided exchanges.
I don’t see how Israel can consent to the IDF leaving the Gaza-Egypt border, as that is how Hamas smuggled in its armaments.
Agree with Gringo. Hamas is no longer in a position to get a lopsided prisoner exchange. It should be either give up the hostages (or remains) or face further destruction.
Kate
It (Hamas) should be either give up the hostages (or remains) or face further destruction.
Which brings up the question: what more is there left to destroy in Gaza? I would estimate offhand that 75% of the buildings in Gaza have already been damaged or destroyed. Do we drop big bombs on the tunnels?
I am reminded of the decision regarding which Japanese city or cities should the US target with the atomic bomb. As firebombing had already pretty much destroyed Tokyo, there was no point in targeting Tokyo with the atomic bomb.
I rather doubt the figure is 75%.
I have very mixed feelings about this. The hostages serve one and only one purpose. For Hamas to buy themselves some breathing room.
>Stop destroying us (at least for a while) and we will release a few hostages.
Hamas needs to be eradicated. Which means Israel cannot let up for a moment. No pause. No ceasefire. No breathing room. And possibly no returned hostages.
Although I understand the natural desire people have to see their loved ones survive and return.
A new wind is blowing……. for the moment!
It’s funny how what’s an asset becomes in a blink of an eye a liability.
Kate
I rather doubt the figure is 75%.
DuckDuckGo: Gaza destroyed or damaged
Reuters, Oct 6
NPR, Oct 10
NYT Oct 7
My “offhand estimate” of 75% stands corrected, but my point stands that the threat of further destruction of Gaza is somewhat empty, as there is little left to be destroyed.
Further destruction of Iran–that’s another story. 🙂