Syria: Iran’s loss is whose gain?
We certainly don’t know who the ultimate winner in Syria will be. But I think we can safely say a couple of things. The first is that the situation is fraught with peril. The second is that Iran looks like the loser:
The Assad regime was an integral part of an Iranian “ring of fire” that would encircle the Jewish state with heavily armed proxy terror armies. The ring of fire vision was pioneered by the late Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. It was one of the factors that turned the Iranian-led Shi’ite axis into the most capable and dangerous of Israel’s adversaries.
Assad’s downfall is a direct knock-on effect from the devastating blows that Iran’s main regional proxy, Hezbollah, suffered in neighboring Lebanon. Israeli aerial and ground operations left Hezbollah severely weakened. The Sunni rebels in neighboring Syria saw their chance and took it.
Whatever group ends up controlling Syria – or whatever remains of Syria, because it might split – it’s highly unlikely that it will be a friend of Israel. But it almost certainly won’t be an Iranian proxy. Turkish proxy? Perhaps.
There’s also this:
On the ground, U.S.-aligned Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces have moved into Deir al-Zour in eastern Syria near the Iraqi border, while the Israeli Air Force repeatedly struck critical border crossing points between Syria and Lebanon. This means that Iran’s ground corridor—meant to allow the seamless passage of weapons and personnel from Iran and Iraq from the east, into Syria and Lebanon, has crumbled. …
The umbrella Syrian coalition of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and formerly tied to Al Qaeda under the name Jabhat al-Nusra, has emerged as the dominant Sunni insurgent force. The Syrian National Army—a nationalist rebel coalition backed by Turkey—is another major player on the ground.
In the meantime, Israel has been busy destroying weapons that the Assad regime had amassed. The idea is to prevent them from falling into the hands of whatever forces are taking over in Syria.
Interesting times.
The evil of 2 lessers, I guess.
Whole thing seems like a giant mess. But it’s the ME, so…
Well, somebody certainly gained…
From the “Stand By Your Allies” File:
“Days After Trump’s Victory, Biden-Harris Admin Granted Iran $10 Billion in Sanctions Relief, Congressional Notice Shows”—
https://freebeacon.com/national-security/days-after-trumps-victory-biden-harris-admin-granted-iran-10-billion-in-sanctions-relief-congressional-notice-shows/
H/T Instapundit.
‘..you must always choose the lesser of two weevils’ – Captain Aubrey
The Reshaping of Iran’s Axis of Resistance
Interesting read…ends with:
Hopefully Trump does more than just talk and place ‘sissy‘ sanctions on Iran this time…
Another point in Syria’s collapse and Iran’s subsequent loss – is that Russia also suffered a *HUGE* loss, and we can thank the Ukrainians for that.
Israel & Ukraine have shown that the way to defeat such Axis of Evils like Russia/Iran is not to cower before them—not to just depend on sanctioning them, but to stand up against them.
It will be a huge mistake if Trump lets Russia have Ukraine…
I think, and hope, that Trump will unleash the Navy on the Houthis.
Will Trump and Xi have another dinner, and Trump does something audacious.
Erdogan and Turkey are a big problem.
Erdogan hates Kurds because the PKK in Turkey is a minority terrorist group composed mostly of Kurds.
But the huge majority of Kurds are in Syria and Iraq and are forces for good, self-sufficient, oil-producing, defensive but not hostile. They are de facto USA allies.
Remember, Erdogan is a vicious, brutal Islamophilic dictator. That Turkey is a NATO member is a major unresolved problem.
Neo- please stop posting loong quotes. We know already! It is a pain to scroll down to find comments.
Cicero:
I post a long quote if I think it’s a good idea and I’m trying to illustrate something. If you don’t like it, you’ll just have to scroll down. I don’t think you can speak for everyone when you say “we know already.”
Certainly Erdogan is the sanctuary of any number of slithy toves, who i’ve referred to, hes cleverer than most of these villains, not to go too godwin, he has a similar position of stalin to the late gulen, as trotsky, as his network of madrassas allowed him to take over the country, using the pretext of the grey wolf nationalists, to purge the Army and security services then he used the specter of Gulen to twice purge in 2016, before then he was Obamas favorite leader,
his influence is noted in France and Germany, in the latter there is an exclusively Kurdish party, in the so called Arab Spring,
he extended his influence in Libya
and other parts of North Africa, his alliance with Qatar gives the tiny statelet an arms industry, they need,
and the use of warm water ports,