Sharon Shannon is a treasure. Many videos on YouTube of her playing the accordian with various Celtic bands. My favorite is her rendition of “Galway Girl” with Mundy. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3V-oXwCWL4
speaking of farm animals (a sheep in this case); can you understand what this guy is saying?
The fellow is speaking English and he is Scottish.
I was unable to understand most of what he said.
The Highland Scottish accent is nearly impenetrable. As is the Irish accent in the west and northwest of the country. And, God help us, in Belfast especially.
In my younger years, I used to work on a monastery farm. I was a tenor in a classical music chorale and would practice my parts ( when I was alone.) Many times the cows would come up and all face me. Very strange.
I’m curious to know how many commenters here would actually describe themselves as “pro-Russian”. To me “pro-Russian” means:
1.) You think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West;
or
2.) You think Russia has some kind of moral justification for invading Ukraine, like Western decadence or Ukrainian corruption or something like that;
3) You have some other reason for describing yourself as “pro-Russian” that I didn’t think of.
I am not pro-Russian, and I believe that their invasion of Ukraine is aggressive and unjustified, and that Putin’s government is self-evidently evil.
Russia’s attack is illegal and if they are allowed to keep ANY of Ukraine then the UN is a dead man walking. The UN exists to prevent this. Unfortunately, Europe is largely run by ninnies.
Niketas,
I agree with what you write in your last paragraph. I also believe U.S. foreign policy possibly accelerated or gave Putin a cause for the invasion. I also believe Ukraine is incredibly corrupt and there are possibly corrupt American actors who, with many Ukrainians, are benefitting from the black hole of U.S. taxpayer money flowing into the war. I also believe the Biden administration may have derailed potential for a negotiated settlement early in the war and there are now hundreds of thousands dead on both sides whose sacrifice may have been unnecessary.
There are many who refer to people who share some or all of these opinions as “pro Russian.” That is a silly ad hominem. Personally, I am not pro-Putin at all. He’s a kleptocratic monster. But I feel for the Russian men he is using as cannon fodder. As in so many wars, the vast percentage of combatants often have little control over their fate. I admire the strong will of the Ukrainians and their resourcefulness.
Hard to know how reliable the polls are in Donbas, but there is a significant percentage of people in the region who are for unification with Russia. From what I hear from friends in Ukraine, that has decreased since the start of the war. Putin’s aggression has rallied Ukrainian patriotism. But it was a volatile area prior to the invasion.
I don’t disagree on the UN’s general fecklessness, but the Donbas is a complex region.
(I also agree the Europe is largely run by ninnies.)
men and women of good will can dissagree on the question, but General Milley or his successor General Brown, Bill Burns or Avril Haines they have no such excuses, same with Mr Smithers Blinken and the one from the Munsch painting, Sullivan,
who were responsible for the Kabul capitulations that ended at Abbey Gate,
now the problem is the core of British and American intelligence is wholy unsuited for this mission, the likes of danchenko and steele, possibly even litvinenko who seemed too lowly a figure in the ORPO,
the crime fightingbranch of the FSB to really know what he suggested,
now some of these ba pennies like deripasha a player in the world aluminum market pop in the gaetz portmanteau
One of the unusual activities here in the estuary is night fishing at low tide during the salmon run. I had never heard of this before. Here is a short video from my security camera. This is almost every night.
Rufus T. Firefly, if California, now filled with foreign persons, voted to leave to US and join Mexico, I would be on the side of conquering Cali and ethnically cleansing the secessionists into to sea.
certainly the coastal areas are problematic, but this is the problem with partitions, one doesn’t have any hard and fast boundaries, the eastern region is more MAGA, but one assumes there are pockets in the West
I believe I’ve said this before here, sometime in the past, but in the early days of the microprocessor revolution, guys like Bill Gate, Scott McNealy, and other “experts” were unanimous is agreeing that these software based systems had no place in election systems.
This particular trick, of leaving the security of a system wide open, then later claiming, “Gee, I’m so sorry, but there’s no proof any breaches happened.” has been utilized repeatedly by Democrats.
CIA director John Deutch was the first one I remember, who put a bunch of secret material on his home computer, then dialed up Compuserve & left it connected for hours or days.
Hillary as Sec. of State, of course. Both with her email server and her unsecured home SCIF.
The wiki on John Deutch:
[John] Deutch left the CIA on December 15, 1996. Soon after, it was revealed that several of his laptop computers contained classified information wrongfully labeled as unclassified. In January 1997, the CIA began a formal security investigation of the matter. Senior management at CIA declined to fully pursue the security breach. Over two years after his departure, the matter was referred to the Department of Justice, where Attorney General Janet Reno declined prosecution. She did, however, recommend an investigation to determine whether Deutch should retain his security clearance. Deutch had agreed to plead guilty to a misdemeanor for mishandling government secrets on January 19, 2001, but President Clinton pardoned him on his last day in office, two days before the Justice Department could file the case against him.
Chases Eagles,
Would you want your son to go to the Donbas and risk his life to preserve a pro-Ukrainian majority? The U.S. does not have a successful track record of sending our servicemen and women into overseas conflicts in recent history. The U.S. continues to do immense good, but our foreign policy has also done immense harm.
Witnessing events of the last 20 years I have grown much less sure and confident of committing our troops and tax dollars to foreign conflicts. When I pass limbless vets panhandling in the street I take pause at what my former cocksuredness has been complicit in.
I tend to not opine about the Ukraine war or America’s policy in it, but there is a non-zero chance our continued funding is putting more lives at risk. I once believed we could foster women’s rights and democracy in Iraq. I was tragically wrong.
brennan was also hacked by a teenager, if memory serves, it would be fitting, because he tried to hack the senate intel report, on interrogation that was mostly hokum, the notion that we keep our secrets in an air gabbed secure facility, like that suggested in the first mission impossible filmm
of course there was the guccifer hack that revealed Hillary’s contacts with former intel operative, the late tyler drumheller and the still extant bill lacy, who in turn did not really provide all what they knew about sources re the wmd program, like the provenance of curve ball the dubious bnd asset, of course in opaque institutions like Iraq, who could really know for certain certain reporters like bob drogin, accepted everything at first hand, but others like stephen gray dug further,
Chases Eagles (12:51 pm) said: “if California, now filled with foreign persons, voted to leave to US and join Mexico, I would be on the side of conquering Cali and ethnically cleansing the secessionists into to sea.”
I moved to California in 2012, and I am significantly less than thrilled by the political culture there*. I would be happy to see California secede, as that secession would mean that the USA electorate would have 54 less Democrat electoral votes to overcome, in order that the left may continue to lose its grip on the hearts, minds, and institutions of the country I’d be leaving behind (and to which I’d definitely still retain my loyalty).
But please, Chases Eagles, can you see if you can spare me the ethnic cleansing that you advocate? I’m old and I want only to live my remaining life in (relative) tranquility.
— — — —
* I’d previously lived my adult life in MA, MD, DC, MD again, and now CA. Politically, they’re effectively six of one versus a half-dozen of the other.
Russia has been warring with Ukraine since 2014. Ukraine did not start the war. It did not deliberately inundate Russia’s border regions with ethnic Ukrainians, it did not attack and occupy Russia’s border regions, it did not seize sovereign Russian territory on the Black Sea, it did not conduct a full-scale invasion aimed at the conquest and absorption of Russia into Ukraine.
Some people seem to need to be reminded of this.
So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.
Donald Trump is considering giving the likes of Joe Rogan and Megyn Kelly a seat in the White House press briefing room instead of mainstream media journalists in a plot that will ‘blow up some heads’.
Speaking to his co-host Michael Knowles, Jr. admitted that the incoming White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt may rework the briefing room seating arrangement to make way for Trump’s new podcast ‘bro’ buddies.
Trump got another most excellent one in Karoline Leavitt—MSM ain’t gonna get around or thru her. Have seen reports/rumors of a lot new news activity (interviews? Etc. ?) coming from both Trump & Leavitt in the future…
Niketas Choniates (2:25 pm) said:
“So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.”
Just wait until Trump (or another Republican) starts driving a hard bargain with Russia (or another Putinist gangster). Suddenly, you’ll see the left revisit a pro-Russia stance, with nary a glance back at — “unburdened by” — what once had been.
they seem to acting against any anti invasion faction anywhere in the continent,
from the Uk to Central Europe, the old joke in animal farm about ‘four legs bad, two legs good,
Niketas, not here, but elsewhere on the web, I have seen some Christian conservatives arguing that Putin’s support of the Russian Orthodox Church and opposition to abortion and same-sex erotic activity makes Putin more worthy than morally degenerate Western leadership. I can’t agree, in great part because I see no evidence that Putin supports these positions because they are morally correct, rather than politically expedient. I doubt it, and his Patriarch’s statements that fighters for the Russian cause in Ukraine get tickets straight to Paradise are, mildly, less than Christian. I believe Putin, in Georgia, in Ukraine, and perhaps in the Baltics, is intent upon re-creating the old Russian Empire, and is absolutely bloodthirsty in these attempts. This is pure imperialism and not good for Russians or, obviously, for his targets.
‘In one widely cited study,’ writes Steven Johnson in his book about the neuroscience of everyday experience Mind Wide Open, ‘he [Pankepp] played dozens of records to chickens attached to equipment designed to record their shivers of pleasure. The chickens turned out to have the strongest positive response to the late-era Pink Floyd record The Final Cut.’
Interesting. But “The Final Cut” was the last Roger Waters’ Floyd album and it wasn’t all that good.
Chickens have poor taste.
@Kate:not here, but elsewhere on the web, I have seen some Christian conservatives arguing that Putin’s support of the Russian Orthodox Church and opposition to abortion and same-sex erotic activity makes Putin more worthy than morally degenerate Western leadership.
I have seen it elsewhere too, but not here, which is why I accommodated it under option 2. If anyone here does think that they are not saying it.
@M J R:Suddenly, you’ll see the left revisit a pro-Russia stance
Like the “reset” button, “tell Vlad I’ll have more flexibility after the election”, and “the 80s called, they want their foreign policy back”?
M J R, I am as anti-secession as there is because it would wreck US military power. My county went for Calamity by 70%. The only counties in the Peoples Soviet of Washington that are more liberal are King (74%) and San Juan (73%). If this state tried to secede they don’t have a friend in me.
CA, KS, ND, AL, OR, NE, VA and now WA.
Rufus T Firefly:
Who will tally the Ukrainian males who disappear into Vlad’s penal system once Russian “peace” is established on all of Ukraine. Vlad’s goal is to eradicate Ukraine as a culture and as a people. It’s the way the Russian empire rolls (IMO). Half measures fighting Putin prolong his aggression. He is in a hybrid war against the west.
Oh, the Russian Orthodox Church, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Russian Federation and before that of the USSR, after the Austrian corporal invaded the motherland?
Sorry, but that organization, not that faith, has no credibility morally (IMO).
“So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.” -Niketas C.
This is irrelevant if you’re looking for ways to prevent another 400,000 – 600,000 Ukrainians/Russians being killed while 1. we wait for the Russian economy to implode and Russia can no longer afford to wage war or 2 the Ukrainian army is degraded to the point that Russia gains significantly more territory.
Those are two likely scenarios whether or not you’re Pro or Anti-Russian. And one of those scenarios might include the use of a tactical nuclear weapon along the way.
We are now foolishly engaging in scenarios that include significant escalations and the increasing risk of a nuclear exchange. And i think if we’re going down that road we should recognize that Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon and take the risk that we wouldn’t be willing to start WWIII, if they thought themselves cornered without options.
Shouldn’t this be all about managing risk? There were many off-ramps along the way in the last 10 years that could have avoided where we are. In my estimation it’s too late to decide to now go all in.
@Brian E:Those are two likely scenarios whether or not you’re Pro or Anti-Russian.
I get that. I’m pretty sure I have a good notion of what you think about US involvement with Ukraine. I’m just wondering if you would describe yourself as “pro-Russian”, in the sense I outlined above:
1.) You think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West;
or
2.) You think Russia has some kind of moral justification for invading Ukraine, like Western decadence or Ukrainian corruption or something like that;
or
3) You have some other reason for describing yourself as “pro-Russian” that I didn’t think of.
Incidentally, one small bright spot is that there’s no point in “chickenhawk” arguments with respect to Ukraine: we are all equally at risk when it comes to nuclear war. So the discourse has that going for it, which is nice.
What I think should happen and what will probably happen is Russia should get out of Ukraine and pay reparations. What I think will happen is world oil prices will rapidly decline under Trump and the war will grind to a halt largely on the current lines. That is if the dumb shits don’t start WWIII. I believe on the whole, Putin’s nuke threats are empty. If he was willing and able to use nukes, I think he would have done so already.
Then when have another festering frontier like Cyprus.
Putin wanted the war, Brian. There were no off ramps. Nothing and no one was going to prevent him from getting it short of his death or ouster from power. That’s the bottom line; really the only line.
Niketas C.,
1. I think we should have honored the original promise that NATO wouldn’t move one inch eastward. This has been debated many times in the past two years on this blog– with the response usually being that the eastern block countries deserved to be in NATO and there is no way for one administration to enforce promises going forward short of a treaty.
Which brings us to the basic worthlessness of Congress in many areas including exerting their rightful place in foreign policy and fiscal responsibility.
When you look at the map, I can see why Russia doesn’t want missiles that close to Russia and they gave us an example why. It’s estimated the flight time of the IRBM missile fired was 15 minutes to cover 462 miles. That isn’t much time to react to a missile attack. Right now our military bases are 3 times that distance.
Yes there are NATO countries now closer to Russia than our current bases, but they are still farther than Ukraine, have a buffer of Belarus, etc.
2. My position changed on the 2014-2021 conflict based on research I did about the causes/effects of the Revolution of Dignity. Once Yanukovych was overthrown Ukraine sent private ultra-nationalist militias to “re-unite” Ukraine. While it’s true that only about 30% of the Donbas favored secession, the majority favored a federalization/limits on Western Ukraine’s authority over the East.
I thought the Donbas and Crimea should have been allowed to leave– even if it meant they joined Russia (which they may or may not have done if Ukraine had recognized their point of view.) And the point of view they had was in some part a reaction to the events when Yanukovych was overthrown. The Donbas and Crimea had heavily voted for Yanukovych and closer ties to the Common Union. They were more ambivalent to joining the EU.
3. The 2022 invasion was illegal– and had we allowed Ukraine to at least present the Istanbul treaty to Ukraine and had the west considered a compromise of the Donbas/Crimea independence (requiring a referendum by them only to determine their status as to joining Russia) and a neutral Ukraine as a settlement would have been preferable to what happened subsequently.
The hundreds of billions of dollars of dollars have literally been blown up and hundreds of thousands of lives have been lost and all that could have been avoided. Those same dollars could have created a sovereign Ukraine existing next to Ukraine by “peace through strength.”
I understand this might be wishful thinking, since Ukrainians would likely balked at giving up any territory.
I don’t consider myself pro-Russian– that is just a tag to make any argument I make as invalid– it’s just narrative control.
Chases Eagles (4:16 pm) said: “I am as anti-secession as there is because it would wreck US military power.”
Not so BINGO. It’s all wildly hypothetical, but I presume that before Califoria leaves USA for good, USA would pull its military knowledge and materiel and any other vital (and even not-as-vital) resources from California. They (California) would stll have the land, of course, but conceivably there may be some sort of agreement à la Guantanamo’s agreement with Cuba.
(My tongue-in-cheek suggestion is not as well thought out as is your objection.)
Google AI Overview: biggest country in the world
Russia is the world’s largest country by area, with a total area of 17,098,242 square kilometers (6,601,665 square miles). This is equivalent to 11% of the world’s total landmass.
Population in that “11% of the world’s total landmass” is 144,484,199 which is #9 in population size. Russia has more landmass than India & China together – their combined population is 2,870,257,069 (if my math is correct) on a combined landmass of 12,361,401 (Km2).
Not nearly big enough says Russia. They *DEMAND* a bigger “buffer” zone, and everyone on their border needs to oblige them—or else.
Mikhail Khodaryonok: Are dreams of Russia’s expansion possible?
Russia will expand its territory, gathering lands and spaces, because constant expansion is not just one of the ideas, but a genuine existential of our historical existence. This opinion is expressed by individual representatives of the country’s political class.
In their opinion, for centuries the Russian state with its harsh and sedentary political interior was preserved solely due to its tireless striving beyond its own borders. It has long forgotten how, and most likely never knew how, to survive by other means.
External expansion, domestic thinkers believe, serves to relieve the internal tension that accumulates in society and which should in no case be released through liberal experiments.
@Brian E. I don’t consider myself pro-Russian
Ok. I think from your long response though, that while you reject the label “pro-Russian”, you do agree with my #1: you think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West.
If I have not described your view accurately I apologize.
Niketas, both sides were wrong. As I said, the 2022 invasion was illegal, but at every turn refused to recognize their position that potentially placing nuclear/non-nuclear missiles that close to Russia was unnecessarily provocative.
US deploys long range cruise missiles in Germany, but including Ukraine in NATO would place those same missiles in far closer proximity to Russia.
Instead of trying to reach an understanding of Russia’s concerns and a solution, we have appeared to just be telling Russia “tough luck”.
Both positions are “unreasonable.”
The video is udderly amazing … (returning to my cave…)
”So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.”
Though he denies he is pro-Russian, Brian E. (and many others in Trump’s camp) clearly fall into the first category here:
”You think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West”
In addition, his (and their) proscription for ending the war — give Russia large swaths of Ukrainian land and large numbers of Ukrainian people to do with as they (Russia) please, force Ukraine to demilitarize and renounce any military alliance which could prevent Russia from taking the rest of the country any time it wishes, and leave all of Eastern Europe wide open for the same treatment as Ukraine — just coincidently is everything Russia is asking for.
With “enemies” like that, why would Russia need friends?
”Hard to know how reliable the polls are in Donbas, but there is a significant percentage of people in the region who are for unification with Russia.”
About 17% in both Donetsk and Luhansk. But the 17% don’t get to dictate to the 83% to which country they belong.
”From what I hear from friends in Ukraine, that has decreased since the start of the war. Putin’s aggression has rallied Ukrainian patriotism.”
Not only that, but Russia has leveled whole cities to the ground — it’s the Russian way of war. There is hardly a brick attached to another brick in Mariupol, Sieverodonetsk, Lysychansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vovchansk, and many others. That sort of thing rarely wins one friends in the regions so devastated.
”Would you want your son to go to the Donbas and risk his life to preserve a pro-Ukrainian majority?”
No one is asking for that, not even the Ukrainians. It’s a red herring.
@mkent:Though he denies he is pro-Russian, Brian E. (and many others in Trump’s camp)…With “enemies” like that, why would Russia need friends?
Do you think it is possible that someone with Brian E’s position could be a reasonable person of good intent who sees a complicated situation differently from you? If not, then why do you suppose he sees it that way?
”Russia’s attack is illegal and if they are allowed to keep ANY of Ukraine then the UN is a dead man walking. The UN exists to prevent this.”
The US has always been the enforcement arm of the UN, and thank goodness. The absolutely last thing we need is a UN powerful enough to enforce its dumber mandates. Our being able to choose which mandates to enforce and which ones to let the UN officials flap uselessly in the breeze is what makes the UN useful.
”We are now foolishly engaging in scenarios that include significant escalations and the increasing risk of a nuclear exchange.”
There is near-zero risk of a nuclear exchange. The Russian leadership is misguided but rational. They know that in a nuclear exchange Russia will cease to exist.
”Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon and take the risk that we wouldn’t be willing to start WWIII”
We’ve already told Russia what will happen if they use a tactical nuke (or other WMD) in Ukraine: America will sink the entire Russian Black Sea fleet and destroy every Russian naval base on the Black Sea. It will be a major humiliating defeat for Russia.
”Nothing and no one was going to prevent him from getting it short of his death or ouster from power.”
In the broad sense you are correct, but this is Russia’s war, not Putin’s. The war has the support of the entire Russian leadership and the vast majority of the Russian people. If anything Putin is a moderate on this issue. If Putin is deposed it will likely mean an escalation of the war, not a pullback.
Re: Hemingway’s “Farewell to Arms”
I’m 3/4 through the translation into French. I read the original when I was 23. All I remembered was the sappy love story and my intoxication with Hemingway’s prose.
Not the horrors of WW I, both physically and morally.
I just finished the section where the narrator, as an American officer who volunteered for an Italian ambulance unit, is compelled to shoot a deserting soldier. Immediately thereafter, he is due to be shot as an officer separated from his men by an Italian kangaroo martial court.
The 1932 movie with Gary Cooper is quite good, particularly when it sticks to the Hemingway. The film softens the edges of Hemingway’s radicalism. For instance, the narrator’s affair with the nurse is justified by a military priest spontaneously officiating a marriage rite for them.
Hard to believe that world is a century behind us. Yet the ripples are still felt.
Brian E need say no more, fan dance by a Russian apologist:
Niketas, both sides were wrong. As I said, the 2022 invasion was illegal, but at every turn refused to recognize their position that potentially placing nuclear/non-nuclear missiles that close to Russia was unnecessarily provocative.
Brain E will fall back on the ouster of Yanukovitch. Oh the dread potentiality of NATO nukes in Ukraine, a thought crime? Funny, Russia has nukes in Kaliningrad (IIRC) should Russia retake all the Baltics because as part of NATO they could already have nukes? Russia used to own/rule/subjugate the Baltics Brain E. Why shouldn’t Vlad take back what was his?
Apologist and cheerleader?
In the Ukrainian perspective Russia has been waging war on Ukraine since 2014, but even you can’t deny that.
”I think we should have honored the original promise that NATO wouldn’t move one inch eastward.”
There was never any such promise. No such agreement has ever been produced and no less authorities than the last president and foreign minister of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev and Eduard Shevardnadze, respectively, have stated flat out that no such promise was ever made. This non-promise was affirmed by the Russian-Ukraine Friendship Treaty of 1997 in which Russia formally agreed that Ukraine could join any bilateral or multilateral organization it wished.
”Yes there are NATO countries now closer to Russia than our current bases, but they are still farther than Ukraine…”
First of all, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are all much closer to the Moscow-St. Petersburg axis than Ukraine is, and they’ve been in NATO for decades.
Second and more importantly, Ukraine was and is ineligible to join NATO. To prevent Ukraine from joining NATO all Russia had to do was…absolutely nothing. So obviously this war is not about NATO.
”The Donbas and Crimea had heavily voted for…closer ties to the Common Union. They were more ambivalent to joining the EU.”
The Ukrainian parliament passed the Ukraine EU Accession Act in 2013 by a 10-1 margin. It had overwhelming support throughout the country.
”Once Yanukovych was overthrown…”
What is your obsession with Yanukovych? No one of any consequence in Ukraine wants him back after his security goons opened fire on peaceful protesters, killing 128 of them. In the face of the resulting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians taking to the streets he fled the country, was disowned by his own political party, was impeached by a unanimous vote of the parliament (328 to 0), was tried by the Ukrainian Supreme Court, convicted, and removed from office. He left office with a 4.9% approval rating. That’s four POINT nine percent.
No one of any consequence outside of Russia wants him back in Kiev. It would be like Britain invading America in 1984 to put Richard Nixon back in power.
”While it’s true that only about 30% of the Donbas favored secession…I thought the Donbas and Crimea should have been allowed to leave…”
So you want the 30% to be able to dictate to the 70% what country they must live in.
”Instead of trying to reach an understanding of Russia’s concerns and a solution, we have appeared to just be telling Russia ‘tough luck’.”
Russia’s concern is that unless it has possession of all of Ukraine, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and half of Poland, it can’t defend itself against invasion from the west. That may actually be true, but that doesn’t mean that Russia gets to conquer those countries and ethnically cleanse the people living there. Lebensraum is not a legitimate reason for war.
So, yes, we rightfully told Russia “Tough luck.”
Ukraine’s Deadly Gamble By tying itself to a reckless and dangerous America, the Ukrainians made a blunder that client states will study for years to come
by Lee Smith
February 25, 2022
It is not an expression of support for Putin’s grotesque actions to try to understand why it seemed worthwhile for him to risk hundreds of billions of dollars, the lives of thousands of servicemen, and the possible stability of his own regime in order to invade his neighbor. After all, Putin’s reputation until this moment has always been as a shrewd ex-KGB man who eschewed high-risk gambles in favor of sure things backed by the United States, like entering Syria and then escalating forces there. So why has he adopted exactly the opposite strategy here, and chosen the road of open high-risk confrontation with the American superpower?
Yes, Putin wants to prevent NATO from expanding to Russia’s border. But the larger answer is that he finds the U.S. government’s relationship with Ukraine genuinely threatening. That’s because for nearly two decades, the U.S. national security establishment under both Democratic and Republican administrations has used Ukraine as an instrument to destabilize Russia, and specifically to target Putin.
While the timing of Putin’s attack on Ukraine is no doubt connected to a variety of factors, including the Russian dictator’s read on U.S. domestic politics and the preferences of his own superpower sponsor in Beijing, the sense that Ukraine poses a meaningful threat to Russia is not a product of Putin’s paranoia—or of a sudden desire to restore the power and prestige of the Soviet Union, however much Putin might wish for that to happen. Rather, it is a geopolitical threat that has grown steadily more pressing and been employed with greater recklessness by Americans and Ukrainians alike over the past decade.
It was never codified in a treaty, but assurances were made.
From the transcript of the talks between Baker and Gorbachev:
Baker: And the last point. NATO is the mechanism for securing the U.S. presence in Europe. If NATO is liquidated, there will be no such mechanism in Europe. We understand that not only for the Soviet Union but for other European countries as well it is important to have guarantees that if the United States keeps its presence in Germany within the framework of NATO, not an inch of NATO’s present military jurisdiction will spread in an eastern direction.
We believe that consultations and discussions within the framework of the “two + four” mechanism should guarantee that Germany’s unification will not lead to NATO’s military organization spreading to the east.
**************************
Baker: I want to ask you a question, and you need not answer it right now. Supposing unification takes place, what would you prefer: a united Germany outside of NATO, absolutely independent 9 and without American troops; or a united Germany keeping its connections with NATO, but with the guarantee that NATO’s jurisprudence or troops will not spread east of the present boundary?
Gorbachev: We will think everything over. We intend to discuss all these questions in depth at the leadership level. It goes without saying that a broadening of the NATO zone is not acceptable.
Baker: We agree with that.
This is a sidebar of the transcript from the Gorbachev Foundation:
“The key exchange takes place when Baker asks whether Gorbachev would prefer “a united Germany outside of NATO, absolutely independent and without American troops; or a united Germany keeping its connections with NATO, but with the guarantee that NATO’s jurisdiction or troops will not spread east of the present boundary.” Thus, in this conversation, the U.S. secretary of state three times offers assurances that if Germany were allowed to unify in NATO, preserving the U.S. presence in Europe, then NATO would not expand to the east. Interestingly, not once does he use the term GDR or East Germany or even mention the Soviet troops in East Germany. For a skilled negotiator and careful lawyer, it seems very unlikely Baker would not use specific terminology if in fact he was referring only to East Germany.
The Soviet leader responds that “[w]e will think everything over. We intend to discuss all these questions in depth at the leadership level. It goes without saying that a broadening of the NATO zone is not acceptable.” Baker affirms: “We agree with that.””
The expertise about Trump voters shown by the writers / interviewees of the New Yorker, quoted by Ed Driscoll at Insty, is very much on a par with the wisdom of this charming Democrat.
Speaking recently at a press conference at the Torino Film Festival in Italy, …Stone kicked things off with by comparing the incoming second Trump administration to fascism under Benito Mussolini.
“Italy has seen fascism. Italy has seen these things. You guys, you understand what happens. You have seen this before. My country is in its adolescence. Adolescence is very arrogant. Adolescence thinks it knows everything. Adolescence is naive and ignorant and arrogant, and we are in our ignorant, arrogant adolescence,” she said.
The actress then gave her description of the kinds of people she thinks voted for Trump.
“We haven’t seen this before in our country. So Americans who don’t travel, who 80 percent don’t have a passport, who are uneducated, are in their extraordinary naivete.”
I guess I had better turn in my 2 diplomas, AesopSpouse’s 3 sheepskins (well, at least one is real vellum), and both our passports, which have taken us to Europe several times, Japan, and India.
Also a total of 7 university degrees belonging to our sons, although I will grant than none of them have traveled abroad yet.
Ms Stone was calling the wrong party “adolescent” IMO, although the Democrats, at least its leaders, are not naïve.
However, I would rather be naïve than ignorant and arrogant.
@ miguel > “a crime where none of the subjects are ever charged how does that work,”
That was a fascinating video, so I looked up some of the related posts.
This is the source article from Wired, which was actually from March 2024: https://www.wired.com/story/jeffrey-epstein-island-visitors-data-broker-leak/
“A WIRED investigation uncovered coordinates collected by a controversial data broker that reveal sensitive information about visitors to an island once owned by Epstein, the notorious sex offender.”
A search for “wired epstein island” will turn up lots of punditry about the video, although not much about the original text article.
I note that the video presenter made a point of informing his viewers on how to protect their own phone-related privacy.
Re Sharon Stone:
I call that bold talk from someone who deigned to flash her cootch on camera for all the world to see.
“What is your obsession with Yanukovych? No one of any consequence in Ukraine wants him back after his security goons opened fire on peaceful protesters,…” -mkent
Overthrowing a President of a country will have consequences, regardless of whether he was popular or not. The level of the reaction might be higher or lower based on the populous’ attitude toward him. But someone voted for him, and liked his policies. I’m not sure why you can’t see that.
Representative from Germany and France negotiated a deal where Yanukovych’s cabinet would be replaced by opposing parties and there would be an early election. Yet the rioters rejected that agreement and said if he didn’t resign by the next day, they would storm the Rada and kill him.
They had an off-ramp. There would have been early elections. The protesters won. And yet they couldn’t accept the peaceful transfer and instead created a constitutional crisis.
As to the Berkut violence– their brutality was an issue early on. But at least 13 Berkut police were killed during the final days, so bullets were flying both directions and some/many of the protestors were killed by Maidan snipers.
If you watch videos of that final day of riots, it was very much a war zone.
Ivan Katchanovski, professor at the University of Ottawa, wrote a book about the Maidan Revolution and it’s aftermath. PDF is available at the link, if you’re interested in a detailed version of events surrounding the overthrow of Yanukovych.
The Ukrainian parliament voted to remove Yanukovych from the posi-
tion of the president of Ukraine under the false pretext that he abandoned
his presidential duties and ?ed Ukraine because of his responsibility
for the massacre. But the decision violated the Ukrainian Constitu-
tion and the vote lacked constitutional majority, while many deputies
from the Yanukovych Party of Regions and the Communist Party voted
under threat of violence, in particular, by the far-right. For example, the
commander of the far-right-linked group of the Maidan snipers admitted
that his group forced certain members of the parliament to participate
in the votes to dismiss Yanukovych and his government…
This video is good for the soul.
Sharon Shannon is a treasure. Many videos on YouTube of her playing the accordian with various Celtic bands. My favorite is her rendition of “Galway Girl” with Mundy. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3V-oXwCWL4
speaking of farm animals (a sheep in this case); can you understand what this guy is saying?
The fellow is speaking English and he is Scottish.
I was unable to understand most of what he said.
https://youtu.be/Kf-B1zjipeY?si=A-uLrRFZf0LZSckC
The Highland Scottish accent is nearly impenetrable. As is the Irish accent in the west and northwest of the country. And, God help us, in Belfast especially.
In my younger years, I used to work on a monastery farm. I was a tenor in a classical music chorale and would practice my parts ( when I was alone.) Many times the cows would come up and all face me. Very strange.
I’m curious to know how many commenters here would actually describe themselves as “pro-Russian”. To me “pro-Russian” means:
1.) You think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West;
or
2.) You think Russia has some kind of moral justification for invading Ukraine, like Western decadence or Ukrainian corruption or something like that;
3) You have some other reason for describing yourself as “pro-Russian” that I didn’t think of.
I am not pro-Russian, and I believe that their invasion of Ukraine is aggressive and unjustified, and that Putin’s government is self-evidently evil.
Russia’s attack is illegal and if they are allowed to keep ANY of Ukraine then the UN is a dead man walking. The UN exists to prevent this. Unfortunately, Europe is largely run by ninnies.
Niketas,
I agree with what you write in your last paragraph. I also believe U.S. foreign policy possibly accelerated or gave Putin a cause for the invasion. I also believe Ukraine is incredibly corrupt and there are possibly corrupt American actors who, with many Ukrainians, are benefitting from the black hole of U.S. taxpayer money flowing into the war. I also believe the Biden administration may have derailed potential for a negotiated settlement early in the war and there are now hundreds of thousands dead on both sides whose sacrifice may have been unnecessary.
There are many who refer to people who share some or all of these opinions as “pro Russian.” That is a silly ad hominem. Personally, I am not pro-Putin at all. He’s a kleptocratic monster. But I feel for the Russian men he is using as cannon fodder. As in so many wars, the vast percentage of combatants often have little control over their fate. I admire the strong will of the Ukrainians and their resourcefulness.
Chases Eagles,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums#:~:text=Another%20poll%2C%20taken%20by%20the,form%2C%20and%205%25%20wanted%20to
Hard to know how reliable the polls are in Donbas, but there is a significant percentage of people in the region who are for unification with Russia. From what I hear from friends in Ukraine, that has decreased since the start of the war. Putin’s aggression has rallied Ukrainian patriotism. But it was a volatile area prior to the invasion.
I don’t disagree on the UN’s general fecklessness, but the Donbas is a complex region.
(I also agree the Europe is largely run by ninnies.)
men and women of good will can dissagree on the question, but General Milley or his successor General Brown, Bill Burns or Avril Haines they have no such excuses, same with Mr Smithers Blinken and the one from the Munsch painting, Sullivan,
who were responsible for the Kabul capitulations that ended at Abbey Gate,
now the problem is the core of British and American intelligence is wholy unsuited for this mission, the likes of danchenko and steele, possibly even litvinenko who seemed too lowly a figure in the ORPO,
the crime fightingbranch of the FSB to really know what he suggested,
now some of these ba pennies like deripasha a player in the world aluminum market pop in the gaetz portmanteau
One of the unusual activities here in the estuary is night fishing at low tide during the salmon run. I had never heard of this before. Here is a short video from my security camera. This is almost every night.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB6IAbfW0bw
Rufus T. Firefly, if California, now filled with foreign persons, voted to leave to US and join Mexico, I would be on the side of conquering Cali and ethnically cleansing the secessionists into to sea.
Here is pre-commie relocate-troublesome-populations map
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2f/Subdivisions_of_the_Russian_Empire_by_largest_ethnolinguistic_group_%281897%29.svg
certainly the coastal areas are problematic, but this is the problem with partitions, one doesn’t have any hard and fast boundaries, the eastern region is more MAGA, but one assumes there are pockets in the West
https://redstate.com/beckynoble/2024/11/25/dishonest-media-strikes-again-as-outlets-take-concealed-cash-from-teachers-unions-for-positive-coverage-n2182471
back of the book section,
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1861237441346314615
a crime where none of the subjects are ever charged how does that work,
Another highly suspicious election system breach, or possible breach, in Colorado.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/11/a_password_scandal_in_colorado.html
I believe I’ve said this before here, sometime in the past, but in the early days of the microprocessor revolution, guys like Bill Gate, Scott McNealy, and other “experts” were unanimous is agreeing that these software based systems had no place in election systems.
This particular trick, of leaving the security of a system wide open, then later claiming, “Gee, I’m so sorry, but there’s no proof any breaches happened.” has been utilized repeatedly by Democrats.
CIA director John Deutch was the first one I remember, who put a bunch of secret material on his home computer, then dialed up Compuserve & left it connected for hours or days.
Hillary as Sec. of State, of course. Both with her email server and her unsecured home SCIF.
The wiki on John Deutch:
Chases Eagles,
Would you want your son to go to the Donbas and risk his life to preserve a pro-Ukrainian majority? The U.S. does not have a successful track record of sending our servicemen and women into overseas conflicts in recent history. The U.S. continues to do immense good, but our foreign policy has also done immense harm.
Witnessing events of the last 20 years I have grown much less sure and confident of committing our troops and tax dollars to foreign conflicts. When I pass limbless vets panhandling in the street I take pause at what my former cocksuredness has been complicit in.
I tend to not opine about the Ukraine war or America’s policy in it, but there is a non-zero chance our continued funding is putting more lives at risk. I once believed we could foster women’s rights and democracy in Iraq. I was tragically wrong.
brennan was also hacked by a teenager, if memory serves, it would be fitting, because he tried to hack the senate intel report, on interrogation that was mostly hokum, the notion that we keep our secrets in an air gabbed secure facility, like that suggested in the first mission impossible filmm
of course there was the guccifer hack that revealed Hillary’s contacts with former intel operative, the late tyler drumheller and the still extant bill lacy, who in turn did not really provide all what they knew about sources re the wmd program, like the provenance of curve ball the dubious bnd asset, of course in opaque institutions like Iraq, who could really know for certain certain reporters like bob drogin, accepted everything at first hand, but others like stephen gray dug further,
Chases Eagles (12:51 pm) said: “if California, now filled with foreign persons, voted to leave to US and join Mexico, I would be on the side of conquering Cali and ethnically cleansing the secessionists into to sea.”
I moved to California in 2012, and I am significantly less than thrilled by the political culture there*. I would be happy to see California secede, as that secession would mean that the USA electorate would have 54 less Democrat electoral votes to overcome, in order that the left may continue to lose its grip on the hearts, minds, and institutions of the country I’d be leaving behind (and to which I’d definitely still retain my loyalty).
But please, Chases Eagles, can you see if you can spare me the ethnic cleansing that you advocate? I’m old and I want only to live my remaining life in (relative) tranquility.
— — — —
* I’d previously lived my adult life in MA, MD, DC, MD again, and now CA. Politically, they’re effectively six of one versus a half-dozen of the other.
Russia has been warring with Ukraine since 2014. Ukraine did not start the war. It did not deliberately inundate Russia’s border regions with ethnic Ukrainians, it did not attack and occupy Russia’s border regions, it did not seize sovereign Russian territory on the Black Sea, it did not conduct a full-scale invasion aimed at the conquest and absorption of Russia into Ukraine.
Some people seem to need to be reminded of this.
So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.
Trump plots stunning White House briefing shake up that’s set to change media landscape forever – hold on…this sounds too good to be true, but:
Trump got another most excellent one in Karoline Leavitt—MSM ain’t gonna get around or thru her. Have seen reports/rumors of a lot new news activity (interviews? Etc. ?) coming from both Trump & Leavitt in the future…
Niketas Choniates (2:25 pm) said:
“So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.”
Just wait until Trump (or another Republican) starts driving a hard bargain with Russia (or another Putinist gangster). Suddenly, you’ll see the left revisit a pro-Russia stance, with nary a glance back at — “unburdened by” — what once had been.
whos the real enemy again:
https://x.com/MikeBenzCyber/status/1861477803163529377
they seem to acting against any anti invasion faction anywhere in the continent,
from the Uk to Central Europe, the old joke in animal farm about ‘four legs bad, two legs good,
Niketas, not here, but elsewhere on the web, I have seen some Christian conservatives arguing that Putin’s support of the Russian Orthodox Church and opposition to abortion and same-sex erotic activity makes Putin more worthy than morally degenerate Western leadership. I can’t agree, in great part because I see no evidence that Putin supports these positions because they are morally correct, rather than politically expedient. I doubt it, and his Patriarch’s statements that fighters for the Russian cause in Ukraine get tickets straight to Paradise are, mildly, less than Christian. I believe Putin, in Georgia, in Ukraine, and perhaps in the Baltics, is intent upon re-creating the old Russian Empire, and is absolutely bloodthirsty in these attempts. This is pure imperialism and not good for Russians or, obviously, for his targets.
like franco but evil
https://babalublog.com/2024/11/25/news-flash-of-the-day-momentous-anniversary-for-cubans/#comment-182051
https://instapundit.com/686935/
I think we already sampled this sorbet of category error,
https://x.com/awstar11/status/1861423184752345545
the sophisticated leaders of Western Europe and Canada, rushed to bail the dynasts in the 90s,
Netanyahu speaks (9:23): https://youtu.be/aWkvmdlH6VU
Tough business, but necessary
Re: Pink Floyd / chicken response
_______________________________
‘In one widely cited study,’ writes Steven Johnson in his book about the neuroscience of everyday experience Mind Wide Open, ‘he [Pankepp] played dozens of records to chickens attached to equipment designed to record their shivers of pleasure. The chickens turned out to have the strongest positive response to the late-era Pink Floyd record The Final Cut.’
–“Pink Floyd Makes Chickens Shiver With Pleasure”
https://www.wired.com/2008/10/pink-floyds-the/
_______________________________
Science!
Interesting. But “The Final Cut” was the last Roger Waters’ Floyd album and it wasn’t all that good.
Chickens have poor taste.
@Kate:not here, but elsewhere on the web, I have seen some Christian conservatives arguing that Putin’s support of the Russian Orthodox Church and opposition to abortion and same-sex erotic activity makes Putin more worthy than morally degenerate Western leadership.
I have seen it elsewhere too, but not here, which is why I accommodated it under option 2. If anyone here does think that they are not saying it.
@M J R:Suddenly, you’ll see the left revisit a pro-Russia stance
Like the “reset” button, “tell Vlad I’ll have more flexibility after the election”, and “the 80s called, they want their foreign policy back”?
M J R, I am as anti-secession as there is because it would wreck US military power. My county went for Calamity by 70%. The only counties in the Peoples Soviet of Washington that are more liberal are King (74%) and San Juan (73%). If this state tried to secede they don’t have a friend in me.
CA, KS, ND, AL, OR, NE, VA and now WA.
Rufus T Firefly:
Who will tally the Ukrainian males who disappear into Vlad’s penal system once Russian “peace” is established on all of Ukraine. Vlad’s goal is to eradicate Ukraine as a culture and as a people. It’s the way the Russian empire rolls (IMO). Half measures fighting Putin prolong his aggression. He is in a hybrid war against the west.
Oh, the Russian Orthodox Church, a wholly owned subsidiary of The Russian Federation and before that of the USSR, after the Austrian corporal invaded the motherland?
Sorry, but that organization, not that faith, has no credibility morally (IMO).
“So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.” -Niketas C.
This is irrelevant if you’re looking for ways to prevent another 400,000 – 600,000 Ukrainians/Russians being killed while 1. we wait for the Russian economy to implode and Russia can no longer afford to wage war or 2 the Ukrainian army is degraded to the point that Russia gains significantly more territory.
Those are two likely scenarios whether or not you’re Pro or Anti-Russian. And one of those scenarios might include the use of a tactical nuclear weapon along the way.
We are now foolishly engaging in scenarios that include significant escalations and the increasing risk of a nuclear exchange. And i think if we’re going down that road we should recognize that Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon and take the risk that we wouldn’t be willing to start WWIII, if they thought themselves cornered without options.
Shouldn’t this be all about managing risk? There were many off-ramps along the way in the last 10 years that could have avoided where we are. In my estimation it’s too late to decide to now go all in.
@Brian E:Those are two likely scenarios whether or not you’re Pro or Anti-Russian.
I get that. I’m pretty sure I have a good notion of what you think about US involvement with Ukraine. I’m just wondering if you would describe yourself as “pro-Russian”, in the sense I outlined above:
1.) You think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West;
or
2.) You think Russia has some kind of moral justification for invading Ukraine, like Western decadence or Ukrainian corruption or something like that;
or
3) You have some other reason for describing yourself as “pro-Russian” that I didn’t think of.
Incidentally, one small bright spot is that there’s no point in “chickenhawk” arguments with respect to Ukraine: we are all equally at risk when it comes to nuclear war. So the discourse has that going for it, which is nice.
What I think should happen and what will probably happen is Russia should get out of Ukraine and pay reparations. What I think will happen is world oil prices will rapidly decline under Trump and the war will grind to a halt largely on the current lines. That is if the dumb shits don’t start WWIII. I believe on the whole, Putin’s nuke threats are empty. If he was willing and able to use nukes, I think he would have done so already.
Then when have another festering frontier like Cyprus.
Putin wanted the war, Brian. There were no off ramps. Nothing and no one was going to prevent him from getting it short of his death or ouster from power. That’s the bottom line; really the only line.
Niketas C.,
1. I think we should have honored the original promise that NATO wouldn’t move one inch eastward. This has been debated many times in the past two years on this blog– with the response usually being that the eastern block countries deserved to be in NATO and there is no way for one administration to enforce promises going forward short of a treaty.
Which brings us to the basic worthlessness of Congress in many areas including exerting their rightful place in foreign policy and fiscal responsibility.
When you look at the map, I can see why Russia doesn’t want missiles that close to Russia and they gave us an example why. It’s estimated the flight time of the IRBM missile fired was 15 minutes to cover 462 miles. That isn’t much time to react to a missile attack. Right now our military bases are 3 times that distance.
Yes there are NATO countries now closer to Russia than our current bases, but they are still farther than Ukraine, have a buffer of Belarus, etc.
2. My position changed on the 2014-2021 conflict based on research I did about the causes/effects of the Revolution of Dignity. Once Yanukovych was overthrown Ukraine sent private ultra-nationalist militias to “re-unite” Ukraine. While it’s true that only about 30% of the Donbas favored secession, the majority favored a federalization/limits on Western Ukraine’s authority over the East.
I thought the Donbas and Crimea should have been allowed to leave– even if it meant they joined Russia (which they may or may not have done if Ukraine had recognized their point of view.) And the point of view they had was in some part a reaction to the events when Yanukovych was overthrown. The Donbas and Crimea had heavily voted for Yanukovych and closer ties to the Common Union. They were more ambivalent to joining the EU.
3. The 2022 invasion was illegal– and had we allowed Ukraine to at least present the Istanbul treaty to Ukraine and had the west considered a compromise of the Donbas/Crimea independence (requiring a referendum by them only to determine their status as to joining Russia) and a neutral Ukraine as a settlement would have been preferable to what happened subsequently.
The hundreds of billions of dollars of dollars have literally been blown up and hundreds of thousands of lives have been lost and all that could have been avoided. Those same dollars could have created a sovereign Ukraine existing next to Ukraine by “peace through strength.”
I understand this might be wishful thinking, since Ukrainians would likely balked at giving up any territory.
I don’t consider myself pro-Russian– that is just a tag to make any argument I make as invalid– it’s just narrative control.
Niketas Choniates (3:59 pm) said: “Like the ‘reset’ button, . . . .”
B I N G O
— — — —
Chases Eagles (4:16 pm) said: “I am as anti-secession as there is because it would wreck US military power.”
Not so BINGO. It’s all wildly hypothetical, but I presume that before Califoria leaves USA for good, USA would pull its military knowledge and materiel and any other vital (and even not-as-vital) resources from California. They (California) would stll have the land, of course, but conceivably there may be some sort of agreement à la Guantanamo’s agreement with Cuba.
(My tongue-in-cheek suggestion is not as well thought out as is your objection.)
Google AI Overview: biggest country in the world
Population in that “11% of the world’s total landmass” is 144,484,199 which is #9 in population size. Russia has more landmass than India & China together – their combined population is 2,870,257,069 (if my math is correct) on a combined landmass of 12,361,401 (Km2).
Not nearly big enough says Russia. They *DEMAND* a bigger “buffer” zone, and everyone on their border needs to oblige them—or else.
Mikhail Khodaryonok: Are dreams of Russia’s expansion possible?
@Brian E. I don’t consider myself pro-Russian
Ok. I think from your long response though, that while you reject the label “pro-Russian”, you do agree with my #1: you think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West.
If I have not described your view accurately I apologize.
Niketas, both sides were wrong. As I said, the 2022 invasion was illegal, but at every turn refused to recognize their position that potentially placing nuclear/non-nuclear missiles that close to Russia was unnecessarily provocative.
US deploys long range cruise missiles in Germany, but including Ukraine in NATO would place those same missiles in far closer proximity to Russia.
Instead of trying to reach an understanding of Russia’s concerns and a solution, we have appeared to just be telling Russia “tough luck”.
Both positions are “unreasonable.”
The video is udderly amazing … (returning to my cave…)
”So no far, no commenters who would describe themselves as pro-Russian.”
Though he denies he is pro-Russian, Brian E. (and many others in Trump’s camp) clearly fall into the first category here:
”You think Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a reasonable response to a legitimate threat, either from the Ukraine, NATO, or the West”
In addition, his (and their) proscription for ending the war — give Russia large swaths of Ukrainian land and large numbers of Ukrainian people to do with as they (Russia) please, force Ukraine to demilitarize and renounce any military alliance which could prevent Russia from taking the rest of the country any time it wishes, and leave all of Eastern Europe wide open for the same treatment as Ukraine — just coincidently is everything Russia is asking for.
With “enemies” like that, why would Russia need friends?
”Hard to know how reliable the polls are in Donbas, but there is a significant percentage of people in the region who are for unification with Russia.”
About 17% in both Donetsk and Luhansk. But the 17% don’t get to dictate to the 83% to which country they belong.
”From what I hear from friends in Ukraine, that has decreased since the start of the war. Putin’s aggression has rallied Ukrainian patriotism.”
Not only that, but Russia has leveled whole cities to the ground — it’s the Russian way of war. There is hardly a brick attached to another brick in Mariupol, Sieverodonetsk, Lysychansk, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vovchansk, and many others. That sort of thing rarely wins one friends in the regions so devastated.
”Would you want your son to go to the Donbas and risk his life to preserve a pro-Ukrainian majority?”
No one is asking for that, not even the Ukrainians. It’s a red herring.
@mkent:Though he denies he is pro-Russian, Brian E. (and many others in Trump’s camp)…With “enemies” like that, why would Russia need friends?
Do you think it is possible that someone with Brian E’s position could be a reasonable person of good intent who sees a complicated situation differently from you? If not, then why do you suppose he sees it that way?
”Russia’s attack is illegal and if they are allowed to keep ANY of Ukraine then the UN is a dead man walking. The UN exists to prevent this.”
The US has always been the enforcement arm of the UN, and thank goodness. The absolutely last thing we need is a UN powerful enough to enforce its dumber mandates. Our being able to choose which mandates to enforce and which ones to let the UN officials flap uselessly in the breeze is what makes the UN useful.
”We are now foolishly engaging in scenarios that include significant escalations and the increasing risk of a nuclear exchange.”
There is near-zero risk of a nuclear exchange. The Russian leadership is misguided but rational. They know that in a nuclear exchange Russia will cease to exist.
”Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon and take the risk that we wouldn’t be willing to start WWIII”
We’ve already told Russia what will happen if they use a tactical nuke (or other WMD) in Ukraine: America will sink the entire Russian Black Sea fleet and destroy every Russian naval base on the Black Sea. It will be a major humiliating defeat for Russia.
”Nothing and no one was going to prevent him from getting it short of his death or ouster from power.”
In the broad sense you are correct, but this is Russia’s war, not Putin’s. The war has the support of the entire Russian leadership and the vast majority of the Russian people. If anything Putin is a moderate on this issue. If Putin is deposed it will likely mean an escalation of the war, not a pullback.
Re: Hemingway’s “Farewell to Arms”
I’m 3/4 through the translation into French. I read the original when I was 23. All I remembered was the sappy love story and my intoxication with Hemingway’s prose.
Not the horrors of WW I, both physically and morally.
I just finished the section where the narrator, as an American officer who volunteered for an Italian ambulance unit, is compelled to shoot a deserting soldier. Immediately thereafter, he is due to be shot as an officer separated from his men by an Italian kangaroo martial court.
The 1932 movie with Gary Cooper is quite good, particularly when it sticks to the Hemingway. The film softens the edges of Hemingway’s radicalism. For instance, the narrator’s affair with the nurse is justified by a military priest spontaneously officiating a marriage rite for them.
Hard to believe that world is a century behind us. Yet the ripples are still felt.
Brian E need say no more, fan dance by a Russian apologist:
Brain E will fall back on the ouster of Yanukovitch. Oh the dread potentiality of NATO nukes in Ukraine, a thought crime? Funny, Russia has nukes in Kaliningrad (IIRC) should Russia retake all the Baltics because as part of NATO they could already have nukes? Russia used to own/rule/subjugate the Baltics Brain E. Why shouldn’t Vlad take back what was his?
Apologist and cheerleader?
In the Ukrainian perspective Russia has been waging war on Ukraine since 2014, but even you can’t deny that.
”I think we should have honored the original promise that NATO wouldn’t move one inch eastward.”
There was never any such promise. No such agreement has ever been produced and no less authorities than the last president and foreign minister of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev and Eduard Shevardnadze, respectively, have stated flat out that no such promise was ever made. This non-promise was affirmed by the Russian-Ukraine Friendship Treaty of 1997 in which Russia formally agreed that Ukraine could join any bilateral or multilateral organization it wished.
”Yes there are NATO countries now closer to Russia than our current bases, but they are still farther than Ukraine…”
First of all, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are all much closer to the Moscow-St. Petersburg axis than Ukraine is, and they’ve been in NATO for decades.
Second and more importantly, Ukraine was and is ineligible to join NATO. To prevent Ukraine from joining NATO all Russia had to do was…absolutely nothing. So obviously this war is not about NATO.
”The Donbas and Crimea had heavily voted for…closer ties to the Common Union. They were more ambivalent to joining the EU.”
The Ukrainian parliament passed the Ukraine EU Accession Act in 2013 by a 10-1 margin. It had overwhelming support throughout the country.
”Once Yanukovych was overthrown…”
What is your obsession with Yanukovych? No one of any consequence in Ukraine wants him back after his security goons opened fire on peaceful protesters, killing 128 of them. In the face of the resulting hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians taking to the streets he fled the country, was disowned by his own political party, was impeached by a unanimous vote of the parliament (328 to 0), was tried by the Ukrainian Supreme Court, convicted, and removed from office. He left office with a 4.9% approval rating. That’s four POINT nine percent.
No one of any consequence outside of Russia wants him back in Kiev. It would be like Britain invading America in 1984 to put Richard Nixon back in power.
”While it’s true that only about 30% of the Donbas favored secession…I thought the Donbas and Crimea should have been allowed to leave…”
So you want the 30% to be able to dictate to the 70% what country they must live in.
”Instead of trying to reach an understanding of Russia’s concerns and a solution, we have appeared to just be telling Russia ‘tough luck’.”
Russia’s concern is that unless it has possession of all of Ukraine, Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and half of Poland, it can’t defend itself against invasion from the west. That may actually be true, but that doesn’t mean that Russia gets to conquer those countries and ethnically cleanse the people living there. Lebensraum is not a legitimate reason for war.
So, yes, we rightfully told Russia “Tough luck.”
Ukraine’s Deadly Gamble
By tying itself to a reckless and dangerous America, the Ukrainians made a blunder that client states will study for years to come
by Lee Smith
February 25, 2022
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/ukraines-deadly-gamble
“There was never any such promise.” -mkent
It was never codified in a treaty, but assurances were made.
From the transcript of the talks between Baker and Gorbachev:
This is a sidebar of the transcript from the Gorbachev Foundation:
“The key exchange takes place when Baker asks whether Gorbachev would prefer “a united Germany outside of NATO, absolutely independent and without American troops; or a united Germany keeping its connections with NATO, but with the guarantee that NATO’s jurisdiction or troops will not spread east of the present boundary.” Thus, in this conversation, the U.S. secretary of state three times offers assurances that if Germany were allowed to unify in NATO, preserving the U.S. presence in Europe, then NATO would not expand to the east. Interestingly, not once does he use the term GDR or East Germany or even mention the Soviet troops in East Germany. For a skilled negotiator and careful lawyer, it seems very unlikely Baker would not use specific terminology if in fact he was referring only to East Germany.
The Soviet leader responds that “[w]e will think everything over. We intend to discuss all these questions in depth at the leadership level. It goes without saying that a broadening of the NATO zone is not acceptable.” Baker affirms: “We agree with that.””
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/16117-document-06-record-conversation-between
Victim blaming and apologetics for a brutal murdering son of a bachelor.
And Lee Smith is who? “On the internet no one knows you are a dog.”
@ Miguel > in re https://instapundit.com/686935/
The expertise about Trump voters shown by the writers / interviewees of the New Yorker, quoted by Ed Driscoll at Insty, is very much on a par with the wisdom of this charming Democrat.
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/11/26/sharon-stone-trump-won-because-of-uneducated-americans-who-dont-travel-abroad/
I guess I had better turn in my 2 diplomas, AesopSpouse’s 3 sheepskins (well, at least one is real vellum), and both our passports, which have taken us to Europe several times, Japan, and India.
Also a total of 7 university degrees belonging to our sons, although I will grant than none of them have traveled abroad yet.
Ms Stone was calling the wrong party “adolescent” IMO, although the Democrats, at least its leaders, are not naïve.
However, I would rather be naïve than ignorant and arrogant.
@ miguel > “a crime where none of the subjects are ever charged how does that work,”
That was a fascinating video, so I looked up some of the related posts.
This is the source article from Wired, which was actually from March 2024:
https://www.wired.com/story/jeffrey-epstein-island-visitors-data-broker-leak/
“A WIRED investigation uncovered coordinates collected by a controversial data broker that reveal sensitive information about visitors to an island once owned by Epstein, the notorious sex offender.”
This is the video that was in your linked Tweet, which was released on 11/22/2024, and a transcript.
https://www.wired.com/video/watch/we-tracked-every-visitor-to-epstein-island
The same video, on YouTube, which is how it was embedded in your linked Tweet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjPHq-Ez0nc
A search for “wired epstein island” will turn up lots of punditry about the video, although not much about the original text article.
I note that the video presenter made a point of informing his viewers on how to protect their own phone-related privacy.
Re Sharon Stone:
I call that bold talk from someone who deigned to flash her cootch on camera for all the world to see.
“What is your obsession with Yanukovych? No one of any consequence in Ukraine wants him back after his security goons opened fire on peaceful protesters,…” -mkent
Overthrowing a President of a country will have consequences, regardless of whether he was popular or not. The level of the reaction might be higher or lower based on the populous’ attitude toward him. But someone voted for him, and liked his policies. I’m not sure why you can’t see that.
Representative from Germany and France negotiated a deal where Yanukovych’s cabinet would be replaced by opposing parties and there would be an early election. Yet the rioters rejected that agreement and said if he didn’t resign by the next day, they would storm the Rada and kill him.
They had an off-ramp. There would have been early elections. The protesters won. And yet they couldn’t accept the peaceful transfer and instead created a constitutional crisis.
As to the Berkut violence– their brutality was an issue early on. But at least 13 Berkut police were killed during the final days, so bullets were flying both directions and some/many of the protestors were killed by Maidan snipers.
If you watch videos of that final day of riots, it was very much a war zone.
Ivan Katchanovski, professor at the University of Ottawa, wrote a book about the Maidan Revolution and it’s aftermath. PDF is available at the link, if you’re interested in a detailed version of events surrounding the overthrow of Yanukovych.
The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine: The Mass Killing that Changed the World
https://www.academia.edu/123427913/The_Maidan_Massacre_in_Ukraine_The_Mass_Killing_that_Changed_the_World