↓
 
Home » Open thread 11/23/2024

Open thread 11/23/2024

The New Neo Posted on by

Chopin wrote this piece when he was eleven years old. It’s his earliest surviving work, but not the earliest he wrote. He was a child prodigy not just in playing but in composing:

I think the pianist is thirteen here.

Comments

Open thread 11/23/2024 — 41 Comments

  2. Great piece by Mamet. This link might go around the paywall (it’s a free “gift link”):

    https://www.wsj.com/opinion/decline-and-fall-of-america-not-yet-history-culture-politics-policy-c5fff60d?st=3bX6Sc&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    A great finish:

    The horror of the past four years—the appeasement of terror, the slavish support of our enemies, the abandonment of the state of Israel, the assaults on free speech—seemed to me the descent into chaos which has been the end of every world power.

    Rome, Greece, Nineveh and Tyre, Babylon, Nazi Germany—all were eventually returned to dust. I saw the irreversible decline of the U.S. and took comfort in the scripture. The Old Testament is a record of decline of those civilizations which fall away from God; and promises that a return to his precepts will restore his grace. We know that one day America, as all things, will go one with Nineveh and Tyre. But not today.

  3. Thank you Neo for the morning smile. The boy could have been me at 13 but playing a Clementi Sonata. Chopin’s early compositions had that Polish dance, unexpected quirky sound. Innocent genius.

  4. Guess Mr. Mamet doesn’t consider Iran’s ally & pardner Russia to be a threat to the West—hence no mention of Ukraine’s desperate fight against Russia’s reinvasion there…

  6. excellent offering I think Chopin gets short shrift compared to Beethoven and Mozart,

  9. I think the pianist is thirteen here.

    –neo

    See. This is why I find piano intimidating. 🙂

  10. I was curious about the remarkable hand crossover in the piece and whether it was specified in the score, so I asked ChatGPT:
    ___________________

    This crossover is not written in the score as a directive but is a practical solution employed by many pianists to manage the physical demands of the passage….

    The repeated octaves can be fatiguing, and the crossover allows for brief relief while maintaining a smooth and powerful performance….

    In many traditional interpretations, this crossover is considered stylistically appropriate. It highlights the virtuosic character of the piece and contributes to its visual and dramatic impact in live performance.

    While not mandated by the score, the hand crossover has become a hallmark of many celebrated interpretations. Pianists like Vladimir Horowitz and Martha Argerich incorporate it seamlessly, enhancing both the musical flow and the visual drama of the performance.

  11. Karmi, Russia is not a threat to the west. It is a threat to itself. It will be damn lucky to not disintegrate and create a massive power vacuum. My guess the war will just peter out as world oil prices plunge under Trump 2.0.

  12. BTW, if you don’t know of Martha Agerich, you may want to:
    ____________________________________

    Martha Argerich is an Argentine classical concert pianist. She is widely considered to be one of the greatest pianists of all time.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Argerich
    ____________________________________

    I only discovered her a few years ago. Here she is at age 59, her fingers flying across the keys, crossovers too:

    –“Martha Argerich Plays Prokofiev Piano Concerto No.3 | Singapore International Piano Festival 2018”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BS0SwRoYAW0

  14. huxley:

    Ah, but even guitar has its prodigies. As do all instruments.

    We should start a new category of prodigy – late life prodigies. 🙂

  15. Huxley: “See. This is why I find piano intimidating.”

    Sadly that is true for the piano. It’s like learning a foreign language at a young age, much easier the younger you are. My first lesson was at age 6 but my grandmother had me playing several years before. She insisted that my newly widowed and broke mother pay for lessons no matter what, because “the boy has the gift.” Lot’s of could ofs, would ofs, and what ifs – it wasn’t meant to be a lifelong profession, just a wonderful avocation. No regrets.

  16. neo:

    Well, I’m in total awe of Jimi Hendrix, Jeff Beck, Eric Clapton and Mark Knopfler. (Not to mention Chet Atkins and Les Paul outside the rock arena.)

    But they didn’t reach that level at thirteen!

    Of course, you are correct that all instruments have their prodigies — including guitar. There are kids who win international competitions very young on guitar.

    Another distinction, I would add, is the ability to create at a prodigy level.

    I didn’t know and I am very impressed that Chopin was composing at such a high level at the age of eleven.

  17. I also liked Mamet’s opinion piece in the “Wall Street Journal.” The guy can write. Neo might object, but I’m going to try copying the whole thing here. I hope everybody gets a chance to read it.
    ____________________________________________________________

    Decline and Fall of America? Not Yet

    David Mamet

    For the past four years Israel has been the leader of the free world. The Jewish state has been the West’s sole protection against Islamist terror, fighting while reviled by the people and countries it was protecting. Its position was similar to that of Donald Trump—demonized, persecuted, targeted for violence.

    Now that Israel and the U.S. will again be allies, we can hope Iran will be returned to the Iranian people, Gaza will become a wealthy city-state, and there will be that biblical peace in which each may sit under his fig tree and be unafraid.

    Moses sent 12 spies to scout out the Promised Land. They returned and reported it was a good land, filled with milk and honey, but it was populated by giants so large “we must have looked to them like grasshoppers, and that is how we seemed to ourselves in our own eyes.”

    Moses admonished them that they had been asked for their report, which gave their people information, rather than for their opinion, which made everyone afraid. The cowardice of the spies caused the 40 years of wandering, as Moses kept the Jews in the desert until that generation had died off.

    God’s promise to the Jews, their fear and his rejection is a universal human myth. The hero is given a task he rejects. In the first instance he must confront himself and choose bravery over cowardice. The mythic hero is aided by the Word of God, contemporary Westerners by heroic example. Winston Churchill inspired in his country’s populace an awareness of their own greatness. So does Mr. Trump.

    Yet half of America not only abides but fervently supports a codependent decline to poverty, crime and a nascent police state. Why? The leftist politicians and their media courtiers and designated beneficiaries profited from the perks of power. But why did the everyday American endorse them and their fear mongering? The actual threat wasn’t global warming, Islamophobia, the Supreme Court, the police, Immigration and Customs Enforcement or Mr. Trump. It was exclusion from the herd.

    An existential secret is one whose revelation would destroy the group. If dad is a drug addict or a sex criminal, acknowledging it would shatter the family. The protection of the secret becomes the family’s unifying endeavor. If anyone says anything, it might reveal that everyone is in on the secret. The sick family devotes all necessary energies to collusion—to mutual and self-censorship.

    During the past four years, American politics has been dominated by a coalition each of whose members, like codependent kin, has its own investment in group integrity and the power it derives therefrom. The superrich, academia, Islamists, Marxists and the media have colluded to suppress the true and impose the false.

    We know that their perfidies, lawfare, slander, blacklisting and civil persecution were practiced on conservatives and Republicans, particularly on Mr. Trump. But the suppression was targeted primarily at their own voters.

    To remain unthreatened by reason, the liberal populace had to be convinced to endorse various lies and fantasies: Black Lives Matter, Israel’s perfidy, unlimited abortion as a woman’s right, men’s right to compete in women’s sports, the abolition of the police, Mr. Trump’s demonic power and so on.

    Why would rational people vote to destroy their borders, their cities, their jobs and their children? For the same reason the sick family must tolerate its dysfunction: The co-opted liberal electorate was terrified that any deviation would result in destruction of its protective unit. As it would.

    In the energy devoted to accommodating lies, the mind puts them in the same category as truth. The codependent pays a huge price from them: his self-respect. President Biden suffers cognitive decline; the administration and the legacy media hid that fact and suppressed its discussion. They did the same with the chaos at the border, crime, inflation, the putsch of Mr. Biden and his replacement through fiat.

    Before June 27, almost all Democrats and media outlets insisted that Mr. Biden was sharp and focused. On July 21, he was ousted from the campaign, and the hagiography of Kamala Harris began. Conservatives’ requests for clarification of her role as “border czar” were labeled “misogynistic.” Her catch phrases were “joy” and “turn the page.” Why would she have wanted to turn the page on four years of the Biden administration, of which she said she would do nothing differently?

    To the left, it didn’t matter. “She isn’t Trump” was sufficient reason to vote for her. Trump isn’t the devil, but a rational consideration of him and his achievements was beyond the liberal’s ability. Mr. Trump was the enemy because he represented a challenge they could not accept.

    The transition from party-line liberal to reasonable citizen generally involves some degree of shame. The genius of 12-step programs is that shame in them can be aired, and, so diffused, in a company each of which has undergone a similar upheaval; where confessions of complicity and shame are greeted and diffused with recognition, laughter and welcome—as among new conservatives, and new devotees to citizenship.

    Why would sentient Americans vote away the freedoms of thought, conscience, assembly and expression guaranteed by our Constitution? It makes sense, as any suicide does, as an act of survival. The suicide takes his own life to stop unbearable anguish. It is the most desperate act of self-preservation.

    Prosperity, interconnectivity and their attendant confusions have led to chaos, the denigration of religion, the family, law and the nations whose identity was created out of the Judeo-Christian tradition. The U.K. now is prosecuting those standing silently across the street from abortion clinics. Should they testify that they were praying, they are guilty of a crime.

    Since the ’20 election I have feared a new American revolution, the leftist government proclaiming its intent to destroy parents whom it calls terrorists and citizens whom it deems insurrectionists. During the past four years Mr. Trump—raided, indicted, convicted, sued, slandered and shot—continued to grow in popularity, and attracted the like-minded into a coalition stronger than that of the left.

    To command, one must have lieutenants themselves capable of assuming command and inspiring subordinates. Their absence in 2020 led to that bump in the road; but their emergence and amalgamation in the last four years is now the Republican Party. This isn’t a cult of personality, but a group of citizen-workers, Americans who adore our country. We understand ourselves not primarily as Republicans or conservatives, but as “we the people.”

    The horror of the past four years—the appeasement of terror, the slavish support of our enemies, the abandonment of the state of Israel, the assaults on free speech—seemed to me the descent into chaos which has been the end of every world power.

    Rome, Greece, Nineveh and Tyre, Babylon, Nazi Germany—all were eventually returned to dust. I saw the irreversible decline of the U.S. and took comfort in the scripture. The Old Testament is a record of decline of those civilizations which fall away from God; and promises that a return to his precepts will restore his grace. We know that one day America, as all things, will go one with Nineveh and Tyre. But not today.

  18. I guess Eastern Europe, the Baltic states, and Scandinavia aren’t part of the west now.

    Whew! That was close, I am reassured now.

    Is Great Britain part of the west?

    Always some new worry.

  19. like Mao said of the French Revolution ‘too soon to tell’

    the East is less subject to the woke mind virus, although Poland seems to have succumbed, with their bouts of thought crime suppression,

    certainly world controller* Starmer doesnt suggest he has a clue,

  20. On another thread someone asked “Who would Sundance [at CTH] choose?

    Well, on November 6, Sundance posted a very lengthy post on how the administration officials [should] work together in the government and who he thought would be good choices.

    Did I mention it’s a long post.

    For those who want to get into the weeds of the executive branch, here it is. You have to read through how the position can be strategically used by the President with a suggestion at the end each section.

    His choice for Secretary of State would have been Ric Grenell and CIA Director Harriet Hageman. AG would have been Ken Paxton.

    Suggestions for President Donald Trump Staffing of Key Positions
    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2024/11/06/suggestions-for-president-donald-trump-staffing-of-key-positions-2025/#more-265970

  21. Russia’s use of the MRBM [Medium Range Ballistic Missile] had an ulterior motive.

    Demonstrate the power of a new weapon with a MIRV or MIIRV warhead that either uses 6 independently targeted warheads or 36 independently targeted warheads. Descending on the target at Mach 8-10, 6 or 36 targets would make it nearly impossible/extremely difficult to intercept.

    Destroy an underground missile production facility.

    Putin said Moscow had struck a missile and defence enterprise in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, where missile and space rocket company Pivdenmash, known as Yuzhmash by Russians, is based.

    Yuzhmash was an underground missile factory going back to the Soviet era and thought to be the site of a current Ukraine missile production factory.

    The US has provided $800 million to fund Ukraine’s own missile production. Zelensky has said they were going to produce 3,000 missiles in 2025.

    Why this missile? These warheads were reported to not contain explosive material but the energy of the projectiles themselves may have been sufficient to damage/destroy an underground facility.

  23. ”Descending on the target at Mach 8-10, 6 or 36 targets would make it nearly impossible/extremely difficult to intercept.”

    It’s just a bit beyond the capability of the PAC-2 Patriots we’ve given Ukraine. The THAAD and Aegis systems can hit it. So can our GMD system if one were ever fired at us.

    ”Yuzhmash was an underground missile factory going back to the Soviet era and thought to be the site of a current Ukraine missile production factory.”

    It’s not the first time that Yuzhmash has been hit.

    So what would be your response to this attack? I bet it has something to do with giving more Ukrainian men, women, and children to Russia. Mine would be not only giving Ukraine enough THAADs and PAC-3 Patriots to defend itself but also enough offensive firepower to take out the Kapustin Yar facility from which this attack was launched.

    One approach encourages more such attacks. The other ends them.

  25. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, it won’t be easy to intercept due to the MIRV capability.

    From Wikipedia:

    A director at the CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) said that the missile’s ability to launch multiple warheads differentiated it from other nuclear-capable missiles that had been used against Ukraine and made it extremely challenging to intercept. A Ukrainian military analyst stated that Ukraine’s air defence systems are completely incapable of intercepting the missile, and that it can not be detected in its travel through the upper atmosphere. US officials note that the missile is still experimental and Russia only has a few in its possession, and that it is unlikely to be regularly deployed against Ukraine.

  26. Why would it be any less detectible than any other ballistic missile?…ICBMs and some IRBMs have long traveled at hypersonic speeds; this one appears to be an IRBM with MIRV capability, rather than a hypersonic vehicle in the sense that the term is currently used, which applied to vehicles that fly on a flat rather than ballistic trajectory and gain their detectability advantage from that characteristic.

  27. David Foster, I wonder if Ukraine doesn’t have the technology to detect an IRBM, given the trajectory and short travel time. I was reading a Defense News article that said Ukraine has had about a 25% success rate with Kinzhal missiles and that was achieved by shooting a volley of Patriot interceptors.

    The Oreshnik isn’t really an issue right now, since it’s just entering production. It’s reported this had the cluster of 6 x 6 warheads, which would be difficult to intercept once it separated from the body.

  28. @ Brian E > ‘On another thread someone asked “Who would Sundance [at CTH] choose?”

    That was me — thank you for the informative link. It is indeed a long article, but gives an encyclopedic overview of the entire IC (intelligence community) that is at the core of most of the rot in Washington. Sundance can be nutty on some things, but at least he argues from a wide and deep foundation.

    I suspect that every position could have a list of 2-5 acceptable candidates, including Sundance’s favorites, although I certainly would not be able to create one. My knowledge of who’s who in the political scene is very much limited by what shows up on the internet.

    Trump and his team know more people, and more about them, and know what he wants done.
    And they know who was promised what for their support in the election, and what has been promised by those people going forward.
    Politics ain’t bean bag, but it sure is log-rolling.

    In re the “making the perfect an enemy of the good enough” as I said about objections to some of Trump’s selections:
    Ric Grenell has always been an entertaining news-maker, but his Wikipedia bio would give grist to any mill operated by those opposed to his nomination to an office. Of course, any negative about any Republican associated with Trump is going to be featured by Wikipedia; however, the recitation of his alleged flaws should not be dismissed, but examined and evaluated carefully.

    This is not the time to walk blind-folded into the cockatrice’s den.

  30. AesopFan: “Ric Grenell has always been an entertaining news-maker, but his Wikipedia bio would give grist to any mill operated by those opposed to his nomination to an office.”

    I see that Grenell’s character and experience have been attacked by Susan Rice, a “veteran journalist” with Reuters who spent seven years at the United Nations, Washington Post “fact checkers”, Sen. Susan Collins, and people unhappy about the fact that he participated in stop-the-steal efforts in Nevada after the 2020 election. Those are all big pluses for me.

    Red flags: he reportedly played a leading role in the U.S. government’s attempts to extradite Julian Assange from the U.K.; and his prior association with Mitt Romney.

    That said, I’m sorry to see that Grenell has apparently been passed over for an appointment in this administration. I hope something can be found for him–if he wants it.

  31. Sunday Open Thread: Russia’s War on Ukraine 1000 days – Perun

    1,000 Days of War in Ukraine – Russia’s IRBM Strike, Trends & The Forces after 1,000 days -Perun

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf2vSoWsmgI

    Timestamps:

    00:00:00 — Opening Words
    00:01:24 — What Am I Talking About
    00:01:55 — Phases Of War
    00:05:46 — Allied Steps
    00:10:59 — Russian Responses
    00:20:17 — The Changing Battlefield
    00:26:55 — Russian Force Evolution
    00:33:20 — What Limits Russia
    00:42:32 — The Ukrainian Force Evolution
    00:45:43 — What Limits Ukraine
    00:58:27 — Assessing The Balance
    01:01:23 — Channel Update

  33. If you think we’ve gotten rid of Mitch McConnell, think again. He will be the chairman of the rules committee and chairman a subcommittee on defense.

    “The Senate Rules Committee will also have important work to accomplish in the 119th Congress, and I look forward to leading it as Chairman,” McConnell said in the statement.

    “Defending the Senate as an institution and protecting the right to political speech in our elections remain among my longest-standing priorities. Ranking Member Deb Fischer has done an outstanding job advancing these causes, and I know she will remain a key partner in the committee’s ongoing work,” he noted.

    Not quite the majority leader, but still enough power to “defend the Senate as an institution [against Trump]…”

    As a bonus, as chairman of a subcommittee, expect funding for Ukraine in every bill coming out of the Senate.
    This is speculation on my part– but if it’s possible– Mitch will be behind it.

    Apparently, Mitch has a lifetime membership in the swamp.

  34. How is the MiGhTy Russian military doing in their reinvasion of the sovereign Ukraine?

    100’s of THOUSANDS of Russian dead troops (730,740 -+) – dead Russian troops that Russia can’t replace fast enough—without the dreaded Full Mobilization Draft that will upset Russian Citizens.

    Russia pays North Korea for 10,000 troops…well, looks like it might be down to 9,500 North Korean troops already:

    Top Russian general and 500 North Korean soldiers ‘killed by British Storm Shadow missiles’ in devastating attack

    Ukraine keeps killing the Russian troops and now the North Korean troops—is that diversity or just proof that the Ukrainians are not racist when it comes to killing their enemy?

    The many pro-Russia Americans best not be tempted by high paying jobs in Russia, e.g., ‘in fields such as “security” and “engineering,”’ because Russia is finding it almost impossible to replace the troops they are sending into the Meat Grinder. In Russia, their troops are sent in waves—into what is called a Meat Grinder – they are charging in waves into strongly armed & fortified positions, and if they dare retreat, then they are killed by Barrier troops (often Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechen troops).

    Oops—the Russians lied again:

    Russians deceitfully recruited hundreds of Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine

    Yemeni mercenaries said they were promised high-paying jobs and even Russian citizenship. The Yemenis were reportedly recruited by a company affiliated with the Houthi group.

    The Financial Times writes that the appearance of Yemeni mercenaries in Ukraine shows that the conflict is increasingly drawing in soldiers from abroad as the number of casualties rises and the Kremlin tries to avoid full mobilization.

    The recruitment in Yemen also underscores how Russia is getting closer to Iran and its allied militant groups in the Middle East.

    Yeah, that last sentence shows that pro-Russia Americans are also being “deceitfully” duped into supporting Iran against Israel…

  35. om, I listened to the Perun analysis, and is there a point that Ukrainians would mobilize the million people that Perun said signed up? They wouldn’t mobilize the 500,000 that was recommended by the military leaders at the beginning of 2024.

    Here is a daily update on the front lines by a former Australian soldier, Willy OAM.
    He uses the map from both pro-Ukrainian [DeepState] and pro-Russian [Suriyak] mappers, trying to correct for any bias. What he is showing is that Russia is approaching the limits of the trench/fortifications that Ukraine has built/had in place since 2014. Once Russia breaks through these defensive lines, the pace of advances will likely increase.

    Perun talks about potential equipment/manpower shortages Russia may face beginning in 2025. He thinks it will become worse in 2026. Can Ukraine last through 2026 without increase their mobilization beyond the 160,000 figure?

    Breakthrough – Another Day Of HUGE Gains/Losses | Ukraine Doubles Down (ATACMS) – Ukraine Map Update
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NfYFxSL9fo

    Do you think his analysis if fairly neutral or do you think it’s just Russian propaganda?

  36. Still recovering from the bomb cyclone
    Power at my place was restored yesterday but broadband is not expected until Tuesday night.

    I mixed up the 2003 and 2006 storms. My house got hit 2003, also lost a very large tree in the backyard. At first light, I had to cut up the tree against the house as it was blocking the garages. My dog was terrified and went missing. Wife waited at school bus stop with son. Dog showed up at bus stop. Wife comes home, turns on news to “school bus trapped by fallen trees in North Bend”. Wife says “that’s not North Bend, that’s Mirrormont and that’s our son’s bus!” We only lost power for a day and half in that storm.

    Mirrormont and area always get slammed because these cyclones suck vast quantities of air through the wind gaps in the Cascades where they smash into a much older range known locally as the Issaquah Alps. They run perpendicular to the Cascades.

    PSE latest:

    “ In some of our hardest hit areas, like Mirrormont and Hobart/Maple Valley, we have hundreds of fallen trees tied up in our power lines, which require tree crews to safely remove using specialized equipment before line crews can begin their work. We have crew resources dedicated to completing this work, but it will take time.”

  37. Cornflour, thanks much for that phenomenal Mamet piece.
    He’s nailed the whole disastrous catalog of problems, issues and calamities; and I dearly hope his clear-eyed optimism will be infectious and will play out…as there’s a whole slough of challenges to tackle and overcome.

    Maybe one day, future AMERICAN historians will wonder how such a wide swath of the country fell for the nightmare that is the latest incarnation of the Democratic Party.

  39. Chases Eagles, restored power after days is wonderful. My friends in western NC, whose house was not damaged, got power back in ten days. I consider this a Herculean effort by Duke Power. When we were up there recently we saw many overhead lines had been replaced with underground cable, which won’t hurt anyone if the poles come down or the lines sag. They’ll be going through and replacing poles and stringing things normally for months to come.

    It took another week to get internet service back.

  40. Twofer

    1) Inside your body, aging unfolds at remarkably different rates

    Recently, scientists at Stanford University began to wonder why identical lab mice, bred with the same DNA and brought up in identical conditions, wound up so different in their old age.

    Some mice could ace cognitive tests and race around on their running wheels. Others would forget simple tasks and hobble from place to place. Genetically, they remained indistinguishable, but their twilight years could hardly have been more distinct.

    Mouses don’t have Golden years?! Let’s see what AI says about this – twilight years vs golden years:

    The terms “golden years” and “twilight years” describe different aspects of old age:

    Golden years
    A time of vitality, happiness, and prosperity, often referring to retirement. The golden years are generally considered to begin at age 65 and last until at least 80.

    Twilight years
    A time of uncertainty, vagueness, or gloom. Old people often rely on pets for comfort and companionship in their twilight years.

    Some experts question whether the term “golden years” still applies because the definition and time span of retirement have changed over the past 50 years. Older Americans live longer now than they did in 1960.

    Google AI Overview seems confused at times, IMHO. Various AI’s differ with each other—a little anyway. ChatGPT sums it up this way:

    Summary

    • Use “golden years” when focusing on the joys, peace, and opportunities of aging.

    •Use “twilight years” when referring to the end-of-life phase, often with a more reflective or solemn tone.

    Yeah, stuck in a laboratory your entire life might not offer a “Golden Years” stage—even for humans.

    2) Progressives begin search for a new leader – when Trump is finally outta the way, the GOP has a rather long lists of presidential candidates. Is that a problem?

    “The progressive movement is strongest when we aren’t overreliant on any single leader to guide us forward,” said Usamah Andrabi, spokesperson for Justice Democrats.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

HTML tags allowed in your comment: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

↑