4.33 minute video on Recess Appointments – sounds like Trump can do it without the Senate even agreeing to it – as long as House Speaker Mike Johnson goes along with it. Bannons War Room:
I am still stunned to find that the annual interest rate on the typical American credit card is nearly 25%. WTH did that happen? Would someone please take a stab at identifying the moments of increase during the past four years? Of course, that great old liberal Jimmy Carter removed the ceiling on interest rates. Does anyone remember when there was a 10% usury law? What I am interested in understanding are identifiable rate increases over the past four years and if possible is there a relationship between other events and these increases? Perhaps a comparitive timeline of rate increases compared budget events?
I am still stunned to find that the annual interest rate on the typical American credit card is nearly 25%. WTH did that happen?
Generally credit card APRs correlate pretty tightly with the Federal Funds Rate, along with the interest rates on mortgage and auto loans and business loans and just about any other loan you can think of. After dumping like 6 trillion dollars into the economy during the pandemic followed by Biden’s wild spending spree (including the newspeak named “Inflation Reduction Act”) we got lots of inflation. So the Fed gradually raised interest rates in order to combat said inflation… and voila! high APRs.
Two psychos talking about a third, demonstrating that they STILL do not have a clue…
@Barry Meislin: It’s not surprising that the likes of Katie Couric and Jen Psaki are fussing about the failure of the messenger rather than the failure of any actual policy that’s been enacted and its results. It’s unlikely that people like them could ever accept that perhaps the dog food just doesn’t taste good to the dog. But sooner or later it will slowly dawn on at least some Democrats that they need to moderate their actual policy ideas to make them more palatable for us dogs I guess.
25% APR on Credit Cards is usury. I had a crazy balance, and I would shift between cards — it you don’t carry a balance for awhile, a card will make an offer of 0% for balance transfers. You gotta be careful to make sure you don’t mess that up — then you are back up at 25%. I finally took out a three year loan to pay off the balance. The loan interest is not great, not bad, but a heck of a lot better than 25%.
Indeed, the utter cluelessness is astonishing.
And very, very scary.
WRT “failure of any actual policy”, well…OK, but the whole point—I believe—is that “Biden”’s policies were/are—“he” had a full two months remaining—INTENDED to be utterly destructive, harmful and toxic.
They were INTENDED to cause chaos, division and HATRED.
As such, those policies were incredibly successful.
Oops,
“…had a full two months…”
should be
“…has a full two months…”
Unsecured credit always comes at a higher rate– though it does seem usurious, but it’s not a new phenomenon.
Banks issue credit cards to almost anyone and there is a high default rate– so the interest covers all the people that they can’t collect from. It’s also a profit center.
The problem is when you limit the amount banks can charge– they just stop extending credit to high risk people– which might be a good thing unless you’re struggling to make ends meet.
There is an even worse alternative– Payday Loan businesses. There interest rates are exorbitant, something like 20% of the amount borrowed + 4% per month. That makes 2% per month on a credit card seem very reasonable.
Another profit center for banks are returned check fees. I think they may be as high as $50. And banks charge you if you accept a check that bounces, which is why business charge high fees if you pay for something with a check that bounces.
13.26 minute video on Recess Appointments and DoJ “Meltdown” that includes part of the video I linked to at 9:33 am in this post. This one includes more info, plus something on FDRA act of 1998. As a hermit, I find listening to anyone for more than a couple of minutes or so to be boring—something like that…so to speak. At around 10:55 into this video, this Act in 1998 has come up (Trump also mentioned it today ?? on his social network ??) and…
UPDATE: there may be more of this interview, but Bannon’s site is new to me, and difficult to find stuff right now…
The problem is when you limit the amount banks can charge– they just stop extending credit to high risk people– which might be a good thing unless you’re struggling to make ends meet.
Yeah, if we actually had any real usuary laws limiting stuff like APR to 15% or whatever, all that would happen is a ton of people wouldn’t be able to aquire credit cards anymore. Same goes for stuff like payday loans. Lower income people who need quick money would have to resort to the old standby, black market loansharks.
Yes, I recall seeing 21 to 23% interest rates on credit cards several years ago. So with the current fed funds rate up to tackle inflation, that adds a few percentage points.
There is a whole financial “industry” that enables and profits from debit consolidation and personal bankruptcy. I know a lawyer guy in that business, though I’ve never heard any of the details. Plus, you see TV ads for companies in that space.
I think the model often looks something like this: The professional looks at your $40K in credit card debt, convinces the card companies that you can’t possibly pay it all off, then they both agree to pay half of it in one immediate lump sum. So now, the debtor has half the debt, and a new loan at a much lower rate, but not so low that the lender isn’t making a tidy profit.
But the card company just lost half of the principal expenditure, and the new lender has to worry about the debtor being a deadbeat again. And the debtor’s credit rating is trashed. Those events are expensive for card companies, so they have to make that up and make a profit.
Feel free to correct me if I got some details wrong, since I always make sure to stay a mile away from such things.
BREAKING News: Trump has sent word to the Senate Majority Leader Thune that if the Senate doesn’t confirm AG Gaetz, he will appoint him using the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998, which allows for temporary appointments for up to 210 days, with a possible 210-day extension. This individual would not require Senate confirmation.
Am no expert on Federal stuff, but sounds like the left can give up on destroying or delaying “AG Gaetz”… this was actually yesterday’s news so am running behind on what is happening.
Analogously to how the REAL minimum wage is $0 for no employment, the REAL minimum interest rate is 0% for no money lent.
In both cases, we might as a society decide that we prefer the trade-off, but that would require acknowledging that the trade-offs exist, and few of us seem willing do so. But what happens when you set a cap or a floor on the price of anything is what always happens, regardless of whether you were willing to acknowledge it.
Axis of Evil – Russia, Iran and North Korea:
You support Russia against Ukraine in the Russia/Ukraine war.
However, you ‘tHiNk’ you support Israel in the Israel/Iran–Axis of Resistance war, but are you actually “supporting” Israel?
Unclear how weapons reached Lebanese terror group; 60-70% of arms found in initial days of ground op were Russian-made, including anti-tank weapons produced as recently as 2020…
***
Hezbollah’s cache of modern, sophisticated weaponry far exceeded prior military estimates in both quantity and capability, the report said, bolstering the group’s ability to strike and kill Israeli soldiers.
An IDF commander who heads the National Munition Disassembly Lab told the Journal that 60-70 percent of arms found in the first days of the ground operation were Russian-made.
Maybe Political reality is different from Real Reality…?
the mob only charges 20% thats the vig right, of course you don’t pay,…well the kray brothers would tell you so,
how could hezbollah afford those weapons, from the oil revenue that Biden had freed up, from those documents we have a rough timeline of the road to October 7th
Karmi, Syria has always been the conduit for arms to Hezbollah from Iran but there is a large Russian presence in Syria.
It’s not surprising Russian military equipment would find it’s way to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Brian E, the amount fooled the IDF, but that is easy to do {sarc} 😉
the ammunition, was hidden under hospitals, under playgrounds, in office towers, all those areas that were off limits, protected by the UN peacekeepers, and the lebanese armed forces that we fund,
it took 40 years for israel to clean out those never do wells, like fuad shakr
Is Russia going to NUKE pro-Russia Americans too?!
Iran will buy weapons from Russia as long as they have the money. Russia receives $15 billion a year from arms sales. That’s chump change compared to the US that sells about $70 billion or arms annually.
I suspect President Trump will reinstate sanctions on Iran, which will have an effect in the short/medium term. Whether or not Europe decides to provide a way for Iran to bypass the sanctions is unknown, but that might be part of the overall strategy for NATO and European security arrangements (including Ukraine).
We need to decouple Russia/Iran/China. You say it’s impossible, but these are not natural alliances and all three have disputes that can be leveraged.
More than its weapons sales to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia’s greatest strategic and geopolitical interest in Syria is the use of a deep-water port at Tartus. RFE/RL takes a closer look at this arrangement.
Congresswoman Nancy Mace fired off a brutal response when asked why she does not want the first trans member of Congress to use women’s restrooms.
‘If being a feminist makes me an extremist I’m totally here for it,’ the South Carolina Republican sharply told a reporter.
Mace added: ‘I’m a victim of abuse myself. I’m a rape survivor. I have PTSD from the abuse I’ve suffered at the hands of a man, and I know how vulnerable women and girls are in private spaces.
‘So I’m absolutely, 100 percent going to stand in the way of any man who wants to be in a women’s restroom, in our locker rooms, [or] in our changing rooms.’
Gotta love some of these badass Republican women!
Brian E – am going to add you to my new pro-Russis/Iran Americans list…
Defenestration!!!!
A Russian ballet dancer who was an outspoken critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine has mysteriously plunged to his death from the fifth floor of a building. Vladimir Shklyarov, a married father of two, plummeted around 60 feet to the ground from a building on Saturday, a spokesperson for the Mariinsky Theater in St. Petersburg, where the 39-year-old was the highest-ranking dancer, told Fontanka. Russian authorities initially labeled the fall an accident, blaming the painkillers he was taking before a complex spinal surgery. However, he joins numerous other critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin who have met untimely ends
Russia has made an art of it…
or they have very dangerous windows and balconies…
Peter Zeihan has finally done a video which lays bare his participation in TDS groupthink.
He admits his election prediction was quite wrong, because he assumed that only the usual 5-10% of voters were truly swing voters and thus he totally missed all the defections from blue-collar, hispanic and black blocs. Much less the reasons for the defections.
Then he recommends that his audience suspend its political prejudices, meaning Trump voters, and concede that Trump was obviously “losing it” and we would inevitably face a constitutional crisis in a few years because we would have a “demented president.”
Zeihan seems not to have noticed that crisis is already here. Senile Joe Biden currently controls the nuclear football.
Zeihan gets hit hard in the comments. As one said:
________________________
Peter doesn’t just drink the Kool-Aid. He mixes it up and serves it.
________________________
I still find value in Zeihan’s geopolitical analyses, but when it comes to American politics, he loves his Kool-Aid.
Is Russia going to NUKE pro-Russia Americans too?! -Karmi
So says a former spokesman for the Russian government. Russia’s reaction has been more nuanced than that.
But to the point this is an escalation, it depends on how Zelensky handles it– which based on the fact he used some of them last night for military targets is encouraging.
Rather than condemn Biden, this could be a small help to Ukraine in future negotiations with the help of President Trump. These are not a “game changer” and won’t change the outcome. They are medium range missiles with un upper limit of 190 miles and if Zelensky uses them on military targets, not much will probably happen. There are two variants Ukraine likely has– the bomblet variant and a 500 lb single bomb variant.
If Zelensky wants to make negotiations impossible he’ll target non-military targets that create political problems for Putin inside Russia.
It’s my understanding that US military personnel have to be used for the system/targeting– so is it possible they might nix targets deemed to be non-military?
The big issue is there is no path for Ukraine to achieve the goals Zelensky has laid out (return to 1991 borders). ATACMS, with a range of 190 miles isn’t going to force Russia to withdraw from the Donbas. Just like HIMARS didn’t make Russia withdraw from Crimea, which was being touted, a year ago.
Ukraine does not have the manpower to “win” this war. Recent figures suggest the military is down to 300,000, from the 750,000 claimed at the beginning of the war.
A year ago General Zaluzhnyi called for a mobilization of 500,000 to allow Ukraine to mount any offensive. Zaluzhnyi was replaced. Instead Zelensky called for a mobilization of 160,000 earlier this year. The numbers they are achieving suggests it will be closer to 100,000.
Once of the problems Ukraine faces is the censorship in place by the Ukraine government that makes it hard for Ukraine citizens to realize what is going on on the front lines.
Zelensky is talking out of both sides of his mouth– one to the Ukraine people and one for international consumption. Our church supports a missionary in Kyiv, who recently sent an update of what they are doing.
He included “a mother who fears her son will pass a medical exam with poor eyesight and be drafted into the artillery unit with minimal training; a sister who just said goodbye to her brother for another 72 straight hours in the trenches where there is heavy fighting.
The world appears to be spiraling out of control and this seems like a crucial moment to pause and pray.
A pastor and full-time chaplain, Vitaly, had his van intentionally torched outside the church. Several incidents of military vehicles targeted in Kyiv have occurred.
One Ukraine understands that losing 20% of your country is not the same as losing the country. Imagine what could have happened if Ukraine had agreed to Istanbul proposal, which would have resulted in less territorial loss, but the $100 billion in military aid sent to Ukraine had been used to build up a defense force that would be a formidable force to prevent any future aggression.
We can’t lose sight that Ukraine has no functional government as their deficit is 50% of their total budget. Ukraine is going to need $100s of billions of dollars to rebuild it’s country. That is going to be needed at a time when countries (including ours) are facing potential economic downturns. President Trump will be working at warp speed to reduce regulatory and economic drags on the economy as we reduce the amount of government spending propping up the economy.
Someone I know was talking about their teen’s friends. six of whom are transgender. And my acquaintance didn’t even think that was a little… off.
One of the biggest losers in this election that nobody seems to be considering is Mitt Ronmey. One of the main standard-bearers of the never-trumpers, he refused to endorse Kamala because he envisioned himself as a future power of sorts that would steer the direction of the GOP after trump lost to Kamala. The fact that he has been forgotten in the aftermath of trump’s win is a promising sign for this new version of the GOP
Mitt who? He’ll go over to the lincoln project or some such, i dont think aei would have him
Someone else: “an acquaintance has a teen with 6 transgender friends”
Is the friend a lefty?
And living in a Democrat run town?
Sad times.
The activist Leftys & many public schools are working on normalizing all things abnormal.
Prognostications about what a specific system, ATACMS, or HIMARS will or won’t force Russia to do are, IMO, horsesh*t slung from afar or wishcasting.
Things aren’t going all Russia’s way, their vast manpower for meat waves has now been reduced to NORK meat puppets for the maw. Why is that? Maybe because Vlad can’t decimate the male populations of St.Petersburg and Moscow for his exestintial war (his existence) on Ukraine. Russian mother’s won’t support that.
I haven’t seem any reports of Ukrainian missile or drone atacks on civilians. Funny that, they haven’t the capability or perhaps the intention to terrorize Russian civilians.
It is an asymetrical war in many ways.
om, As to prognostication, tell that to Ben Hodges.
From a November 23, 2022 article in Insight News:
According to the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, Ukraine can liberate Mariupol and Melitopol by January, after which the liberation of Crimea will begin.
“Soon HIMARS will be fired from Kherson. The approaches to Crimea are within reach. This will weaken the Russian defense, while the “left-wing” of the counter-offensive will take Mariupol and Melitopol by January. Then the decisive phase of the campaign will begin – the liberation of Crimea”, Hodges explained.
General Hodges also published a map of the range of different types of weapons from the liberated city of Kherson.
Hodges stressed that ATACMS missiles would have an immediate positive effect against Russian bases in Crimea.
By the way, Ukraine has been using ATACMS on targets inside Ukraine for some time.
Maybe the question should be, Where DIDN’T they try to cheat?
The transgender issue isn’t going away, and we need to have a resolution to it.
I kiddingly suggested a few years ago, that instead of male and female signs at bathrooms, we should have penis and not penis signs. I don’t know how women feel about it, but if a man has fully transitioned with surgery she may not be a woman, but a trans woman in this case is also not a man.
I don’t know how many males have that surgery as part of their transition, but I imagine it’s a minority.
huxley,
Thanks for the link. I gave up on Zeihan about a year ago. He cites some interesting data, but he extrapolates overly bold predictions and he goes too far into the future. It’s hard enough to predict the economy of a single country over a 12 month period. 200+ countries’ behaviors over the course of decades is impossible. Nothing wrong with giving it a go, and stating opinions, but he’s way too confident and self-assured with all of his guesses.
I didn’t bother to watch the video, but, as you wrote, there are some fun take downs in the comments. I hope he reads them and tries to learn from them and adjust.
“I was completely wrong in my predictions …so now I’ll make a bunch of additional overconfident predictions based on hunches.”
ArtflDgr,
Defenestration is also prominent in “Czech” and “Bohemian” history.
A fully “transitioned” biological male is just a biological male without a penis. I’m with Congresswoman Nancy Mace on this.
‘So I’m absolutely, 100 percent going to stand in the way of any man who wants to be in a women’s restroom, in our locker rooms, [or] in our changing rooms.’
Biological males should also not be allowed in women’s sports.
Get this Crime Against Humanity out of the public schools also…
Karmi, I had a friend from college transition 30-40 years ago. If you didn’t know him you wouldn’t know he had been a male. I have no idea if he had bottom surgery, but using a bathroom I doubt a woman would know, since there are privacy stalls in women’s bathrooms.
When I saw her, I don’t recognize her and someone had to point out that Kendra had been Ken.
Using a bathroom and competing in a sport are different issues.
“Kendra” is a biological male with or without a penis…
Rather haughty “Presidential scholar” Alan Lichtman, a frequent guest on MSM shows, claimed that his “Thirteen Key” system for predicting presidential elections was very good indeed, predicting the correct outcome for every presidential election since 1984, and this time his system predicted that Harris would win.
When he was being roundly criticized by leftist Cenk Uygur for the abject failure of his system, Lichtman said that he would not stand for this “blasphemy” against me.
gender dysphoria is a mental condition. As I was typing this, I was watching 2 Way and a “cis-gendered male” who looked like a female was expressing concern about the safety of her community with the Trump election.
I think the view is most conservatives [at least me] is I don’t want to know your sexual/gender proclivities. If you are gay, I don’t need/want to know. If you are a male that wants to be accepted as a female– then act the part. I don’t need/want to know you used to by a “cis gendered male”.
I gained from that little interaction on the 2-way yahoo show was there is an element of exhibitionism that is a characteristic of dysphoria. The need for acceptance– and I think that may also be a characteristic of homosexuality. This is going to be an unsolvable issue– until the left regains control and makes it a capital crime to not show the correct level of acceptance/affirmation.
I only brought the topic up because Rep. Nancy Mace is going to introduce a rule in Congress that biological males cannot use women’s restrooms. There will be a transgender woman in the House next term and she is vehemently opposed due to a sexual assault in her past.
I like using ISW (Institute for the Study of War) – they rely heavily on Open-Source Intelligence
It is a welcome threat to malefactors and governments with something to hide
Yeah, it’s hard to hide from proof. Russia especially hates such Open-Source Intelligence. One site checked out some Russian “proof” of a “Ukrainian terrorist attack” in Ukraine that killed a pro-Russian Ukrainian. Russian morons showed pics of the person in the blown up car, and that skull damage had been done elsewhere and the body had been placed into the blown up car. Open-Source Intelligence proved it was false info.
THE GREAT hope of the 1990s and 2000s was that the internet would be a force for openness and freedom. As Stewart Brand, a pioneer of online communities, put it: “Information wants to be free, because the cost of getting it out is getting lower and lower all the time.” It was not to be. Bad information often drove out good. Authoritarian states co-opted the technologies that were supposed to loosen their grip. Information was wielded as a weapon of war. Amid this disappointment one development offers cause for fresh hope: the emerging era of open-source intelligence (OSINT).
Satellite images cost several thousand dollars 20 years ago, today they are often provided free and are of incomparably higher quality. A photograph of any spot on Earth, of a stricken tanker or the routes taken by joggers in a city is available with a few clicks.
Bellingcat is one of the Top Dogs in the Open-Source Intelligence ‘Business’.
Bellingcat is an independent investigative collective of researchers, investigators and citizen journalists brought together by a passion for open source research.
Founded in 2014, we have pioneered the use of open source research methods to investigate a variety of subjects of public interest. These range from the shooting down of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine to police violence in Colombia and the illegal wildlife trade in the UAE. Our research is regularly referenced by international media and has been cited by several courts and investigative missions.
Lots of others also…
Lots of pro-Russia Americans & RWM (right-wing media), along with the daily Russian disinformation efforts, have been desperately pushing the false narrative that “Ukraine is losing” or “Ukraine can’t win.” Open-Source Intelligence is proving otherwise…
Ukrainian forces have defended against Russia’s full-scale invasion for 1,000 days and continue to demonstrate incredible resilience against Russian aggression. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022 under the incorrect assumption that Ukraine would fail to defend itself and that Russian forces would be able to seize Kyiv City and install a pro-Russian proxy government in three days. One thousand days later, Ukrainian forces have successfully pushed Russian forces from their most forward points of advance in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Poltava, and Mykolaiv oblasts and continue their daily fight to liberate occupied territory in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea. Russian forces are currently advancing throughout eastern Ukraine, and Ukrainian officials have recently warned about the possibility of an imminent Russian offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin is simultaneously waging an informational war against the West, Ukraine, and the Russian population aimed at convincing the world that Russian victory is inevitable, and that Ukraine stands no chance. This informational effort is born out of Putin’s fear and understanding that sustained Western military, economic, and diplomatic support for Ukraine will turn the tide of the war against Russia.
Russia has accumulated a significant amount of risk and a number of ever-increasing constraints on its warfighting capabilities over the last 1,000 days … This system has provided the Kremlin the manpower necessary to support operations so far, but there are mounting indicators that this system is beginning to teeter … Recent Western estimates of Russian manpower losses suggest that Russian forces are currently losing more troops per month than Russia’s ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts can sustain, and open-source evidence indicates that Russia may not be able to sustain its current rate of armored vehicle and tank losses in the medium term as Russia burns through its stockpiles of Soviet-era equipment. The upcoming 2025 year will only increase the manpower and materiel constraints on the Russian military if Russia attempts to sustain its current offensive tempo, and Putin continues to appear averse to such measures given Russian society’s growing disinterest in fighting in Russia’s war, the Russian economy’s limitations including a significant labor deficit and high inflation, and continual aversion to bearing the burden of additional wartime costs. Russia cannot maintain its current tempo indefinitely. Putin will likely need to take disruptive and drastic measures – including another involuntary call up of the mobilization reserve – to overcome these growing limitations as the war protracts.
Ukraine, meanwhile, continues to improve its warfighting capabilities and prepare itself to be self-sustainable in the long term.
“1,000 days” and the once ‘MiGhTy’ Russian military is on its knees to Iran & North Korea – and *THAT* along with Open-Source Intelligence shows that Ukraine is holding its own, and Russia is both desperate and “is beginning to teeter.”
Hopefully, Trump doesn’t blow this opportunity…
Karmi, was your name Bob in another life?
Brian E – spoken like a true pro-Russia/Iran American…
Brian E:
Indeed, predicting outcomes in war is difficult. Should I dredge up predictions from Colonel McGreggor to amplify your point, or even from Vladimir Putin?
HIMARS and ATACMS have forced Russia to alter their tactics and caused hudge casualties, do you discount or deny that? Russia has been hounded out of the Black Sea, has lost control of part of their sacred motherland, and is in the 600k range of casualties in a 1000 day war that was expected and predicted to last 21 days.
Predicting what long range strikes on military targets in Russia will accomplish is bullshit. There are other platforms/weapons; Stormshadow/Scalp that may be allowed to rearrange Russian assets soon.
Payback, Vladdy.
Can anyone say they foresaw the bromance between Musk and Trumpvcoming a month or more ago? I sure didn’t!
Not only did Elon Musk plunk down a hundred or two million dollars in support of the former president, but he’s taken a break from all his entrepreneurship with several businesses, typically seeing him in the air twice a day or more— then insinuating himself into the Trump clan, gaining “uncle” status.
Successful new businesses are built by obsessives. And many credit Musk’s mega loss leadership buy of Twitter for creating open channel for Trump’s message in the Presidential election to reach voters of the nation!
I am amazed. Now, how helpful Elon Musk’s counsel will be to recruiting solid DC leadership in a decadent DC Federal government remains to be seen. But I’m enjoying the show so far.
Anyone else?
”Lots of pro-Russia Americans & RWM (right-wing media), along with the daily Russian disinformation efforts, have been desperately pushing the false narrative that ‘Ukraine is losing’ or ‘Ukraine can’t win.’
This “Russia stronk!” argument was always baffling. Russia has had a second-rate military since at least the fall of the Berlin Wall, yet from the start of this latest Russian invasion the conservative media have almost all painted Russia as invincible. Even now, three years into a three-day war, this message persists.
Just to show you how ridiculous this claim is, note that during Russia’s “blistering” (according to right-wing media) advances this last year, Russia captured roughly 2,455 square kilometers of Ukraine from Nov. 1, 2023 to Nov. 1, 2024. At this “blistering” rate of advance it will take Russia another *four years* just to capture the 9,600 square kilometers of Donetsk oblast it doesn’t already occupy and **200 years** to capture the rest of the country. (Donetsk is an oblast (province) that Russia invaded in 2014 and formally incorporated — including the parts it doesn’t yet control — into Mother Russia in 2023.)
Russia doesn’t have 200 years. Forget even the men. Within about four years Russia will be out of tanks and artillery, as the 75-year stockpile accumulated by the Soviet Union will be gone. Russia’s only hope of victory is that the Trump administration will successfully force Ukraine to effectively surrender.
The sad part is that the strategy appears to be working.
@ T. J. > “many credit Musk’s mega loss leadership buy of Twitter for creating open channel for Trump’s message in the Presidential election to reach voters of the nation!”
I don’t think there is any way to overstate the importance of Twitter’s change of ownership. Without the Twitter Files breaking open the massive act of government malfeasance in second-hand censorship, and then X un-censoring conservatives and sane liberals (or at least some of them), there would probably not have been a Trump victory.
The efforts of Trump’s campaign to go anywhere and talk to anybody were fruitful in the venues they went to, especially among black and Hispanic communities, but the resulting news stories, podcasts, etc. were amplified tremendously by publicizing them on X, which he was prevented from doing on Twitter in 2020.
I decided spare you a couple of dozen Peanut Victorious memes, but you can go to Sarah’s blog and check out her Friday Meme posts for the last couple of weeks.
Elon’s brief remark that I linked to is explained very well in this lengthy post from Matt Taibbi.
https://www.racket.news/p/how-americas-accurate-election-polls
“How America’s Accurate Election Polls Were Covered Up —
The Real Clear Politics National Average was removed by Wikipedia before the election and the New York Times denounced its failure to skew data. A solution to the “mystery” of crappy polling?”
Puget Sound hammered by high winds. PSE has 347.5k customers without power. SNOPud another 116.7k.
The transgender issue isn’t going away, and we need to have a resolution to it.
==
Eliminate 3d party payments for it, tell people demanding ‘accommodation’ to pound sand, and bankrupt practitioners with malpractice suits. That will largely resolve it. You want to go the extra mile, put the medical ghouls who poison people with hormones and butcher them with unnecessary surgery in prison where they belong. There’s your resolution.
‘Within the Department of Justice, you know, you have the sex crimes unit, which is what I was a part of,’ she said, highlighting her work for the Department of Justice in the 2000s.
She asked: ‘Child sex crimes and child trafficking. How could you nominate someone with allegations of child trafficking or trafficking across state lines and having sex with a 17-year-old?’
However, within four minutes, co-host Whoopi Goldberg addressed Hostin and said: ‘Sunny, you have a legal note.‘
‘I do, Whoopi, thank you,’ Hostin replied, before coldly reading off a memo.
‘Matt Gaetz has long denied all allegations, calling the claims, quote, “invented,” and saying in a statement to ABC News that “this false smear following a three-year criminal investigation should be viewed with great skepticism.” The DOJ investigation was closed with no charges being brought.’
Former federal prosecutor Sunny didn’t look very sunny after sticking her foots in her mouth…
I stocked up in 2022 (good to 2032), so forgot what to look for and get. One said old people – something like old people already have iodine in system, and that younger people are the ones who need it…I dunno tho. Bought it anyway…
Guess our pro-Russia commenters here have forgot about Russian NUKE threats during late fifties thru sixties (?)…and again now.
For those who haven’t seen it, here is Mollie Hemingway’s investigation of the Gaetz charges and why the DOJ didn’t charge him. The charges come from an entirely unreliable convicted felon who tried the same sort of scam on someone else. Not credible.
Senate Republicans aired frustrations Tuesday after Vice President-elect Vance and other party members skipped votes Monday, greasing the skids for Democratic-backed judicial nominees to be greenlighted as part of a final push to fill the bench with lifetime appointees before President-elect Trump takes office.
***
Adding to the drama, Harris left Washington for Hawaii on Tuesday, depriving Democrats of a potential ability to break a 50-50 tie.
Despite the math, GOP members were incensed at the no-shows, which stretched into Tuesday as Vance did not show up for the morning vote.
Puget Sound Energy alone has over 400k accounts without power this morning. Practically the whole east side is dark. Issaquah hard hit. Enumclaw recorded 77 mph gust. Saw a tree down on a security camera view at a vacant house of mine right before the power went out. Last time this happened (2006) it took a week to get power back.
Based on this new ad, there is an obvious brand name change for “Jaguar” which comes to mind.
Chases Eagles, best wishes for you and your area. Stay safe.
“Brian E – am going to add you to my new pro-Russis/Iran Americans list…” – Karmi
Can you upgrade me to a Putin lover? What an honor to be in the same company as Tulsi Gabbard! Of course, om had me as a Putin lover long before you even showed up.
I don’t need to talk about Russia’s shortcomings as you, om and mkent have that covered. What you’re failing to understand is the manpower shortfall that Ukraine is facing. While Russia may face manpower issues in possibly 2025, or maybe 2026, or almost certainly 2027 (according to ISW), Ukraine is facing the issue now.
And Ukraine can’t “fix” that– without taking drastic measures they have refused to take. And if they don’t have the political will to mobilize the number of men they need– that suggests there isn’t enough men to draft, or there isn’t the popular support in the country, or they don’t really believe Russia intends to occupy the entire country.
The ISW report you linked to has so many qualifiers to be almost meaningless. For example: “there are mounting indicators that this system is beginning to teeter”. Ok, how many years until it does teeter? Then how many years before it falls? 2-3 years?
Ukraine doesn’t have 2-3 years.
Its official war aim is to restore the country’s international borders, including retaking Crimea, but there is a growing recognition in Kyiv and the West that Ukraine has neither the men, nor the arms nor the Western political support necessary to do that.
There is rising political pressure in parts of the West for Ukraine to cut a deal to end the fighting — something that’s especially prevalent in the new team around Donald Trump.
You shouldn’t ignore the realities on the eastern front.
From an aesthetic standpoint, decline. Over many decades.
Why Ukraine’s war is in a bad place
==
At some point, it would be agreeable if Putin admirers figured out their predictive ability is less than stellar.
Are you saying Politico.eu is a Putin admirer?
Brian E
Can you upgrade me to a Putin lover?
Heck *NO*!!! You are without a doubt a pro-Russia/Iran American. Can’t speak for om, but suspect that he was just taking it easy on you with the “Putin lover” label.
What you’re failing to understand is the manpower shortfall that Ukraine is facing.
You seem to arrive at the wrong conclusion so often…possibly a Guinness World Record.
Anyway, of course I know Ukraine is facing manpower shortages, but not so much as to pay South Korea to send troops to help. Russia is putting theirs thru the infamous *MEAT GRINDER* and Ukraine is still holding back many whilst planning for the future after the war. I wrote about that a while back.
Go back and read my Open-Source Intelligence comment. Instead of those bogus and/or Russian propaganda sites you keep reading for your so-called “source” – try some factually based Open-Source sites…
That comment will also mentions the ‘“1,000 days” and the once ‘MiGhTy’ Russian military is on its knees to Iran & North Korea’ -– that’s desperate—that’s teetering on the brink of losing. Have read rumors that Russia is going to bring in 100,000 more North Korean troops because Ukraine is killing so many Russians that Russia can’t replace them without going to some kind of full or similar draft, and Putin is afraid that would bring the wrath of the Russian people down on him.
Again, of course Ukraine is facing manpower shortages, but not like your *BELOVED* Russian propaganda sites are telling you. Ukraine has like 1/3 the population of Russia, and maybe ¼ the military that Russia has, but as mkent said at November 20, 2024 at 12:54 am in this thread:
Russia has had a second-rate military since at least the fall of the Berlin Wall, yet from the start of this latest Russian invasion the conservative media have almost all painted Russia as invincible. Even now, three years into a three-day war, this message persists.
Just to show you how ridiculous this claim is, note that during Russia’s “blistering” (according to right-wing media) advances this last year, Russia captured roughly 2,455 square kilometers of Ukraine from Nov. 1, 2023 to Nov. 1, 2024. At this “blistering” rate of advance it will take Russia another *four years* just to capture the 9,600 square kilometers of Donetsk oblast it doesn’t already occupy and **200 years** to capture the rest of the country.
Some people would rather die than to lose their freedom, but apparently pro-Russia Americans and pro-Russia/Iran American you don’t understand. Ukraine has been fighting Russia since 2014 or 2015. Europe is preparing for war with Russia. NATO has grown since Russia reinvaded Ukraine, and it is also preparing for war with Russia.
Americans are not going to let Trump give Ukraine to Russia, so Putin’s gamble is about to leave Russia in a much weaker position…IMHO.
UPDATE: Just read where America is sending landmines!? Had wondered why Ukraine didn’t have more mined areas…fuking Biden should’ve already sent them. Better late than never, and those mines will get stepped on by a lot of North Koreans. These are supposedly terrible mines on troops…
Brain E has been shaping the Russian war on Ukraine for 1000 days and always returns to the Yanukovitch sad trombone of 2014. Because of course the Ukrainian constitution not the actual war being waged by Russia against those who don’t want to be under the Russian boot forever.
Karmi, what sources I’ve linked to do you consider “your *BELOVED* Russian propaganda sites?”
I won’t use those in the future.
Since you linked to The Economist, I assume you consider it a reliable source.
From Nov. 20 article Most Ukrainians now want an end to the war:
The surveys, conducted in August and October 2024, show that support for continued resistance against Russia has fallen in every part of Ukraine (see maps). In Kyiv, the capital, Gallup data show that support has dropped by 39 percentage points since 2022; in eastern regions close to the front line the figure is even starker: just 27% of respondents now favour pressing on, compared with 63% who want the war to end. Roughly half of those who favour talks are open to territorial concessions—Russia has seized 19% of Ukraine’s land since 2014. Less than 40% of them oppose ceding any land.
Even though the article tried to tie the drop in support for the war to the election of Trump, the survey was done in August and September, when Trump’s election was in doubt.
The Ukrainian people– even those in western Ukraine where there is less effect from the war are doubting the ability to “win”. The reason why Ukraine didn’t go along with the mobilization they originally were trying to pass of 500,000 was because the politicians realized it was political suicide– so they settled on a smaller mobilization of 160,000 and even then they are drafting people with physical disabilities.
They are already not reaching their monthly targets and the total mobilization may be closer to 100,000.
One of the problems is mkent is using the failed blitzkrieg that the Russian army began with in 2022 and the success Ukraine had in repelling their attacks. That was the highwater and the best chance Ukraine had to get a favorable settlement. This isn’t 2022 and Russia is using the tactic they know– trench warfare.
There are several key towns that have been the bulwark of defense for the Ukrainians– highly fortified. But if or when they fall, it will be much easier for Russia to continue advancing west as there aren’t the trenches to the west of these towns.
mkent sometime back linked to a story that said Russia would run of military equipment/armored vehicles in 2027. Even the ISW assessment you linked to only suggests Russia’s capability are beginning to teeter. Let’s assume that they will have their own manpower shortages by sometime in 2027. Can Ukraine’s manpower shortage hang on for 2-21/2 years?
I asked art deco if he considered Politico.eu as Russian propaganda, but here’s some statistics from the article I linked to about casualties.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in February that 31,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed in the war; The Wall Street Journal reported the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, although Zelenskyy later called that “a lie.”
Russian dead and wounded are thought to be higher: Ukraine’s General Staff estimates that more than 654,000 Russian personnel have died. Western analysts are more conservative, putting the total number of dead and wounded Russians at about 600,000.
Now you just claimed that Russia has suffered 700,000+ dead and 2 million wounded– which are the numbers Ukraine is claiming. These numbers are unrealistic. At the same time, most analysts (including the US DOD) think Zelensky’s claim 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers is also propaganda.
I’ve read from several sources the number is likely at least 70,000 dead and 200,000+ wounded for Ukraine– which would be 270,000 casualties. Most analysts think the 720,000 “liquidated” claim by the Ukrainians is likely 720,000 casualties for Russia.
We are 2 years into the war (or half way if Russia can continue fighting at this pace (or something like it) for 2 more years. So now we’re speculating which army is going to run out of soldiers first. Can Ukraine afford to suffer another 270,000 casualties or can Russia afford to suffer another 720,000 casualties?
Let’s look at the funding. This years bill was $60,000 billion– of which less than $20 billion was for military aid and the rest was for the support of the Ukraine budget. Getting reliable numbers on how much the US has sent to Ukraine is almost impossible to find, but it’s somewhere between $150-200 billion. For the scenario I’m describing, we would need to send at least another $200 billion to get Ukraine to 2027. So by 2027 Ukraine will be devastated and will still have not driven the Russians back to the pre 2014 border. They may or may not be in a position to negotiate anything better than settling now.
And the west still will have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild a smaller Ukraine get them on their feet.
I think this reality is finally dawning on the people of Ukraine. They are tired of the war. Yes, the ultra-nationalists will want to continue fighting– but they are a minority.
Karmi, those are anti-personnel landmines. The US has been providing anti-tank mines all along.
Karmi, another The Economist article outlining the seriousness of Ukraine’s manpower weakness.
The problem is not so much the loss of territory, which is limited and has come at enormous cost to Russia—600,000 dead and wounded since the start of the war, on American estimates, and 57,000 dead this year to October alone, according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is the steady erosion in the size and quality of Ukraine’s forces. Ukrainian units are under-strength and overstretched, worn thin by heavy casualties. Despite a new mobilisation law that took effect in May, the army, outside a handful of brigades, has struggled to recruit enough replacements, with young men reluctant to sign up to tours of duty that are at best indefinite and, at worst, one-way missions. Western partners are privately urging Ukraine’s leaders to lower the mobilisation age floor from 25 to increase the potential pool of recruits. But political sensitivities and fears over an already alarming demographic crisis stand in the way of any change.
On manpower, too, Russia remains solvent. Its army is recruiting around 30,000 men per month, says the NATO official. That is less than government targets, but is still enough to cover even the gargantuan losses of recent months.
Russia cannot fight for ever. But the worry among American, European and Ukrainian officials is that Ukraine’s breaking point will come first. “Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year,” writes Mr Watling, “and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances.” That, he warns, would give Russia leverage in any negotiations that follow.
The gloomy mood is evident in a shift in America’s language. Senior officials like Mr Austin still strike a confident note, promising that Ukraine will win. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say that, in practice, the ambitions of early 2023—a Ukrainian force that could take back its territory or shock Russia into talks through a well-crafted armoured punch—have given way to a narrow focus on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” says a person involved in that planning.
We are 2 years into the war (or half way if Russia can continue fighting at this pace (or something like it) for 2 more years. So now we’re speculating which army is going to run out of soldiers first.
This is why discussing with you is useless. Akin to trying to carry on a discussion with a Progressive, i.e., just lots of muddy water and few if any actual facts…
Since you linked to The Economist..
We just had a discussion on “sources” not being reliable. I don’t consider Economist to be reliable or unreliable. As I said in the November 9, 2024 at 10:46 am comment on deceptive, wrong, mistaken, etc. that readers & commenters need to double-check anything they read—including links that neo uses as “sources”.
Also, this is exactly why I made the Open-Source Intelligence comment at November 19, 2024 at 10:54 pm, and suggested you use “sources” that actually have Open-Source proof in them. You don’t use them for a reason – you are a pro-Russia/Iran American, and you don’t want actual facts.
I also linked to Bellingcat as one of the Top Dogs in the Open-Source Intelligence info, and the ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19, 2024 article which used Open-Source info to show that Russia is the one suffering the most from manpower shortages—shortages that will become worse in 2025.
Show me Open-Source intel – not speculation and/or pro-Russia right-wing American propaganda and/or Russian propaganda…
Bellingthecat is a nsa ghcq contractor that occassionally turns up good intel as in blind squirrel (like the berlin shooter that biden traded for some magic beans
Bellingcat (stylised bell¿ngcat) is a Netherlands-based investigative journalism group that specialises in fact-checking and open-source intelligence (OSINT). It was founded by British citizen journalist and former blogger Eliot Higgins in July 2014. Bellingcat publishes the findings of both professional and citizen journalist investigations into war zones, human rights abuses, and the criminal underworld. The site’s contributors also publish guides to their techniques, as well as case studies.
Bellingcat began as an investigation into the use of weapons in the Syrian civil war. Its reports on the Russo-Ukrainian War (including the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17), the El Junquito raid, the Yemeni Civil War, the poisoning of Alexei Navalny and the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal, and the killing of civilians by the Cameroon Armed Forces have attracted international attention.
Russians and pro-Russia Americans hate Bellingcat…
Bellingcat is an independent investigative collective of researchers, investigators and citizen journalists brought together by a passion for open source research.
Founded in 2014, we have pioneered the use of open source research methods to investigate a variety of subjects of public interest. These range from the shooting down of flight MH17 over eastern Ukraine to police violence in Colombia and the illegal wildlife trade in the UAE. Our research is regularly referenced by international media and has been cited by several courts and investigative missions.
We design and share verifiable methods of ethical digital investigation. By publishing walkthroughs to open source research methods and holding tailored training sessions on their use for journalists, human rights activists and members of the public, we’re broadening the scope and application of open source research.
With over 30 staff and contributors in more than 20 countries, we operate in a unique field where advanced technology, forensic research, journalism, transparency and accountability come together.
We believe in the need for collaboration and have partnered with news organisations across the globe. Likewise, Bellingcat’s Global Authentication Project (GAP) seeks to harness the power of the open source community by nurturing and encouraging a network of volunteer investigators. Our Justice & Accountability unit, meanwhile, seeks to demonstrate the viability of online open source information in judicial processes.
Did I mention that Russians and pro-Russia Americans hate Bellingcat? Yes I did…good.
My favorite example of Open-Source workings and excellent work done by Bellingcat:
Editor’s note: This article contains and links to imagery which some readers may find disturbing
But one suspicious video, which showed a gruesome scene of charred bodies and human skulls that seemed to have been sliced open, appeared so serious and egregious that Bellingcat decided to investigate further, speaking to an explosive weapons expert and a forensic pathologist in the process.
What they told us was that an apparent IED (improvised explosive device) attack used by separatist and Russian media as evidence of Ukraine’s aggression included the staged use of cadavers and likely faked IED damage.
****** Unusual Injuries
The injuries caused to the three alleged fatalities immediately aroused suspicion after graphic footage depicting their charred state emerged. In a detail first noticed by the Twitter account @glastnostgone and reported by the independent US media website Grid News, one of the bodies (Casualty A) appeared to have an unusual injury for a person impacted by an IED. These injuries included what appeared to be clear cuts on both sides of the head, cleanly separating the skull cap from the rest of the skull.
****
Dr. Lawrence Owens Research Fellow at the University of Winchester replied, noting that the cuts were clearly from an autopsy procedure, and that, given the context, Casualty A in Vehicle 1 would have been dead before the explosion.
Open-Source research like that is why Russia and pro-Russia Americans hate Bellingcat…
“This is why discussing with you is useless.” -Karmi
I don’t hate good intel. But I do think we need to be skeptical. For instance– your using Ukraine’s casualty figures for Russian losses. Why should we believe them? Ukraine is in the business of propaganda when it comes to the war.
Just as are organizations like ISW. The key is balancing the opposing sources and look at how they frame their “data”. This can help determining something approximating reality.
I’m not finding much from you but ad hominem attacks. I need data/estimates that are grounded in something more than “mounting evidence that Russia is beginning to teeter”. That is narrative.
And framing everything in relation to 2022 is narrative. This is not the same war that was being fought in 2022. Russia learned from it’s disastrous assumptions that they were going to be met with flowers as they rode into Kyiv.
Remember when the narrative was Russia was running out of missiles and their troops were fighting with shovels? I’m not accusing you of saying things like that, but that was the narrative for a time.
I have watched the support in Ukraine for the war dwindle this year, as the realities of the destruction was brought home. If the Ukrainian people had an opportunity to vote (which they don’t under martial law) and they voted to settle the war, would you support their decision?
That would be a good start– to have an election or a referendum on continuing the war. In fact, once and if there are negotiations led by President Trump, it would be useful for a pause to the fighting and allow the Ukrainian people vote on whether to accept any deal.
people don’t understand the Russian mindset, the Russo Turkish wars which happened around the time of our Revolution, is very vivid in their memory, same with the Crimean war, it’s not ancient history for them,
Karmi- I also use open source intelligence– just different sources.
Willy OAM
I served in the Australian Infantry from 2014-2021, With specialist qualifications in Heavy Weapons/Anti-Armour, Combat First Aid, With a tour to Afghanistan as a crew commander of a Armoured Mobility Vehicle.
Upon my Return I was unexpectedly diagnosed with a Incurable and Inoperable Brain tumour that is slowly killing me. I was also awarded the Queens Order of Australia Medal (OAM) hence the post nominals after my name. Then Being medically separated from the Army I flew to Ukraine in 2022 for 6.5months and now make content full time. I really appreciate you being here Thankyou
I’ve found him to be knowledgeable on military tactics and evenhanded in his reporting. While he would like to see Ukraine prevail– he is trying to be neutral in his analysis.
He provides mostly daily updates, though he is beginning a new round of treatments for brain cancer and that has affected the timing of his broadcasts. He also flew to Israel and provided analysis of the beginning of the Israeli strikes into Gaza and later Lebanon.
He might provide you with another source to add to what you’re reading now. This is his latest broadcast.
4.33 minute video on Recess Appointments – sounds like Trump can do it without the Senate even agreeing to it – as long as House Speaker Mike Johnson goes along with it. Bannons War Room:
Jeff Clark Explains The Tie-Breaking Power Of The President
Peter Thiel interviewed by Bari Weiss of the Free Press.
https://www.thefp.com/p/peter-thiel-honestly-trump-jd-vance?r=jaf0z&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true
I am still stunned to find that the annual interest rate on the typical American credit card is nearly 25%. WTH did that happen? Would someone please take a stab at identifying the moments of increase during the past four years? Of course, that great old liberal Jimmy Carter removed the ceiling on interest rates. Does anyone remember when there was a 10% usury law? What I am interested in understanding are identifiable rate increases over the past four years and if possible is there a relationship between other events and these increases? Perhaps a comparitive timeline of rate increases compared budget events?
I am still stunned to find that the annual interest rate on the typical American credit card is nearly 25%. WTH did that happen?
Generally credit card APRs correlate pretty tightly with the Federal Funds Rate, along with the interest rates on mortgage and auto loans and business loans and just about any other loan you can think of. After dumping like 6 trillion dollars into the economy during the pandemic followed by Biden’s wild spending spree (including the newspeak named “Inflation Reduction Act”) we got lots of inflation. So the Fed gradually raised interest rates in order to combat said inflation… and voila! high APRs.
Two psychos talking about a third, demonstrating that they STILL do not have a clue…
“Katie Couric slams Kamala Harris over word salads: ‘Answer the goddamn question, please!’”
https://nypost.com/2024/11/19/media/katie-couric-slams-kamala-harris-over-word-salad-answers/
YMMV.
@Barry Meislin: It’s not surprising that the likes of Katie Couric and Jen Psaki are fussing about the failure of the messenger rather than the failure of any actual policy that’s been enacted and its results. It’s unlikely that people like them could ever accept that perhaps the dog food just doesn’t taste good to the dog. But sooner or later it will slowly dawn on at least some Democrats that they need to moderate their actual policy ideas to make them more palatable for us dogs I guess.
25% APR on Credit Cards is usury. I had a crazy balance, and I would shift between cards — it you don’t carry a balance for awhile, a card will make an offer of 0% for balance transfers. You gotta be careful to make sure you don’t mess that up — then you are back up at 25%. I finally took out a three year loan to pay off the balance. The loan interest is not great, not bad, but a heck of a lot better than 25%.
Indeed, the utter cluelessness is astonishing.
And very, very scary.
WRT “failure of any actual policy”, well…OK, but the whole point—I believe—is that “Biden”’s policies were/are—“he” had a full two months remaining—INTENDED to be utterly destructive, harmful and toxic.
They were INTENDED to cause chaos, division and HATRED.
As such, those policies were incredibly successful.
Oops,
“…had a full two months…”
should be
“…has a full two months…”
Unsecured credit always comes at a higher rate– though it does seem usurious, but it’s not a new phenomenon.
Banks issue credit cards to almost anyone and there is a high default rate– so the interest covers all the people that they can’t collect from. It’s also a profit center.
The problem is when you limit the amount banks can charge– they just stop extending credit to high risk people– which might be a good thing unless you’re struggling to make ends meet.
There is an even worse alternative– Payday Loan businesses. There interest rates are exorbitant, something like 20% of the amount borrowed + 4% per month. That makes 2% per month on a credit card seem very reasonable.
Another profit center for banks are returned check fees. I think they may be as high as $50. And banks charge you if you accept a check that bounces, which is why business charge high fees if you pay for something with a check that bounces.
13.26 minute video on Recess Appointments and DoJ “Meltdown” that includes part of the video I linked to at 9:33 am in this post. This one includes more info, plus something on FDRA act of 1998. As a hermit, I find listening to anyone for more than a couple of minutes or so to be boring—something like that…so to speak. At around 10:55 into this video, this Act in 1998 has come up (Trump also mentioned it today ?? on his social network ??) and…
Jeff Clark: DOJ Continues To Meltdown After Results Of The Election
UPDATE: there may be more of this interview, but Bannon’s site is new to me, and difficult to find stuff right now…
Yeah, if we actually had any real usuary laws limiting stuff like APR to 15% or whatever, all that would happen is a ton of people wouldn’t be able to aquire credit cards anymore. Same goes for stuff like payday loans. Lower income people who need quick money would have to resort to the old standby, black market loansharks.
Yes, I recall seeing 21 to 23% interest rates on credit cards several years ago. So with the current fed funds rate up to tackle inflation, that adds a few percentage points.
There is a whole financial “industry” that enables and profits from debit consolidation and personal bankruptcy. I know a lawyer guy in that business, though I’ve never heard any of the details. Plus, you see TV ads for companies in that space.
I think the model often looks something like this: The professional looks at your $40K in credit card debt, convinces the card companies that you can’t possibly pay it all off, then they both agree to pay half of it in one immediate lump sum. So now, the debtor has half the debt, and a new loan at a much lower rate, but not so low that the lender isn’t making a tidy profit.
But the card company just lost half of the principal expenditure, and the new lender has to worry about the debtor being a deadbeat again. And the debtor’s credit rating is trashed. Those events are expensive for card companies, so they have to make that up and make a profit.
Feel free to correct me if I got some details wrong, since I always make sure to stay a mile away from such things.
@TommyJay: Yeah, debt buying is an entire industry unto itself and can be fairly lucrative, if a bit unseemly at times.
Look like Trump’s isn’t going to play around with his appointments…here’s an interesting one on the
Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998
Am no expert on Federal stuff, but sounds like the left can give up on destroying or delaying “AG Gaetz”… this was actually yesterday’s news so am running behind on what is happening.
Analogously to how the REAL minimum wage is $0 for no employment, the REAL minimum interest rate is 0% for no money lent.
In both cases, we might as a society decide that we prefer the trade-off, but that would require acknowledging that the trade-offs exist, and few of us seem willing do so. But what happens when you set a cap or a floor on the price of anything is what always happens, regardless of whether you were willing to acknowledge it.
Axis of Evil – Russia, Iran and North Korea:
You support Russia against Ukraine in the Russia/Ukraine war.
However, you ‘tHiNk’ you support Israel in the Israel/Iran–Axis of Resistance war, but are you actually “supporting” Israel?
IDF finding far more Russian arms in Hezbollah’s possession than expected
Maybe Political reality is different from Real Reality…?
the mob only charges 20% thats the vig right, of course you don’t pay,…well the kray brothers would tell you so,
how could hezbollah afford those weapons, from the oil revenue that Biden had freed up, from those documents we have a rough timeline of the road to October 7th
easier link
https://warroom.org/
why do they always have to be hacks,
https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1858934359849304236
right up there with uncle bosie, making stuff up
Karmi, Syria has always been the conduit for arms to Hezbollah from Iran but there is a large Russian presence in Syria.
It’s not surprising Russian military equipment would find it’s way to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Brian E, the amount fooled the IDF, but that is easy to do {sarc} 😉
the ammunition, was hidden under hospitals, under playgrounds, in office towers, all those areas that were off limits, protected by the UN peacekeepers, and the lebanese armed forces that we fund,
it took 40 years for israel to clean out those never do wells, like fuad shakr
Is Russia going to NUKE pro-Russia Americans too?!
Russia threatens US with ‘nuclear war by Christmas’ – if we don’t roll over and let them have Ukraine…
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/11/19/hillary-clinton-uranium-giveaway-to-russia-n4934428
Iran will buy weapons from Russia as long as they have the money. Russia receives $15 billion a year from arms sales. That’s chump change compared to the US that sells about $70 billion or arms annually.
I suspect President Trump will reinstate sanctions on Iran, which will have an effect in the short/medium term. Whether or not Europe decides to provide a way for Iran to bypass the sanctions is unknown, but that might be part of the overall strategy for NATO and European security arrangements (including Ukraine).
We need to decouple Russia/Iran/China. You say it’s impossible, but these are not natural alliances and all three have disputes that can be leveraged.
Explainer: Why Is Access To Syria’s Port At Tartus So Important To Moscow?
https://www.rferl.org/a/explainer-why-is-access-/24619441.html
Moment reporter receives brutal truth about Nancy Mace’s opposition to trans using female restrooms in Congress
Gotta love some of these badass Republican women!
Brian E – am going to add you to my new pro-Russis/Iran Americans list…
Defenestration!!!!
A Russian ballet dancer who was an outspoken critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine has mysteriously plunged to his death from the fifth floor of a building. Vladimir Shklyarov, a married father of two, plummeted around 60 feet to the ground from a building on Saturday, a spokesperson for the Mariinsky Theater in St. Petersburg, where the 39-year-old was the highest-ranking dancer, told Fontanka. Russian authorities initially labeled the fall an accident, blaming the painkillers he was taking before a complex spinal surgery. However, he joins numerous other critics of Russian President Vladimir Putin who have met untimely ends
Russia has made an art of it…
or they have very dangerous windows and balconies…
Peter Zeihan has finally done a video which lays bare his participation in TDS groupthink.
–Peter Zeihan, “Election Postmortem…”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tA5pMRw64tE
He admits his election prediction was quite wrong, because he assumed that only the usual 5-10% of voters were truly swing voters and thus he totally missed all the defections from blue-collar, hispanic and black blocs. Much less the reasons for the defections.
Then he recommends that his audience suspend its political prejudices, meaning Trump voters, and concede that Trump was obviously “losing it” and we would inevitably face a constitutional crisis in a few years because we would have a “demented president.”
Zeihan seems not to have noticed that crisis is already here. Senile Joe Biden currently controls the nuclear football.
Zeihan gets hit hard in the comments. As one said:
________________________
Peter doesn’t just drink the Kool-Aid. He mixes it up and serves it.
________________________
I still find value in Zeihan’s geopolitical analyses, but when it comes to American politics, he loves his Kool-Aid.
Is Russia going to NUKE pro-Russia Americans too?! -Karmi
So says a former spokesman for the Russian government. Russia’s reaction has been more nuanced than that.
But to the point this is an escalation, it depends on how Zelensky handles it– which based on the fact he used some of them last night for military targets is encouraging.
Rather than condemn Biden, this could be a small help to Ukraine in future negotiations with the help of President Trump. These are not a “game changer” and won’t change the outcome. They are medium range missiles with un upper limit of 190 miles and if Zelensky uses them on military targets, not much will probably happen. There are two variants Ukraine likely has– the bomblet variant and a 500 lb single bomb variant.
If Zelensky wants to make negotiations impossible he’ll target non-military targets that create political problems for Putin inside Russia.
It’s my understanding that US military personnel have to be used for the system/targeting– so is it possible they might nix targets deemed to be non-military?
The big issue is there is no path for Ukraine to achieve the goals Zelensky has laid out (return to 1991 borders). ATACMS, with a range of 190 miles isn’t going to force Russia to withdraw from the Donbas. Just like HIMARS didn’t make Russia withdraw from Crimea, which was being touted, a year ago.
Ukraine does not have the manpower to “win” this war. Recent figures suggest the military is down to 300,000, from the 750,000 claimed at the beginning of the war.
A year ago General Zaluzhnyi called for a mobilization of 500,000 to allow Ukraine to mount any offensive. Zaluzhnyi was replaced. Instead Zelensky called for a mobilization of 160,000 earlier this year. The numbers they are achieving suggests it will be closer to 100,000.
Once of the problems Ukraine faces is the censorship in place by the Ukraine government that makes it hard for Ukraine citizens to realize what is going on on the front lines.
Zelensky is talking out of both sides of his mouth– one to the Ukraine people and one for international consumption. Our church supports a missionary in Kyiv, who recently sent an update of what they are doing.
One Ukraine understands that losing 20% of your country is not the same as losing the country. Imagine what could have happened if Ukraine had agreed to Istanbul proposal, which would have resulted in less territorial loss, but the $100 billion in military aid sent to Ukraine had been used to build up a defense force that would be a formidable force to prevent any future aggression.
We can’t lose sight that Ukraine has no functional government as their deficit is 50% of their total budget. Ukraine is going to need $100s of billions of dollars to rebuild it’s country. That is going to be needed at a time when countries (including ours) are facing potential economic downturns. President Trump will be working at warp speed to reduce regulatory and economic drags on the economy as we reduce the amount of government spending propping up the economy.
Someone I know was talking about their teen’s friends. six of whom are transgender. And my acquaintance didn’t even think that was a little… off.
10 mins to liftoff: https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1857841326542434339
The support of the Ukraine-Russia war has been slowly decreasing in Ukraine, but according to this poll, a majority of Ukrainians now want the war to end as soon as possible.
Half of Ukrainians now want an Ending of the War as soon as Possible
https://www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2024/11/Screenshot-2024-11-19-at-12.47.49%E2%80%AFPM.png
One of the biggest losers in this election that nobody seems to be considering is Mitt Ronmey. One of the main standard-bearers of the never-trumpers, he refused to endorse Kamala because he envisioned himself as a future power of sorts that would steer the direction of the GOP after trump lost to Kamala. The fact that he has been forgotten in the aftermath of trump’s win is a promising sign for this new version of the GOP
Mitt who? He’ll go over to the lincoln project or some such, i dont think aei would have him
Someone else: “an acquaintance has a teen with 6 transgender friends”
Is the friend a lefty?
And living in a Democrat run town?
Sad times.
The activist Leftys & many public schools are working on normalizing all things abnormal.
Prognostications about what a specific system, ATACMS, or HIMARS will or won’t force Russia to do are, IMO, horsesh*t slung from afar or wishcasting.
Things aren’t going all Russia’s way, their vast manpower for meat waves has now been reduced to NORK meat puppets for the maw. Why is that? Maybe because Vlad can’t decimate the male populations of St.Petersburg and Moscow for his exestintial war (his existence) on Ukraine. Russian mother’s won’t support that.
I haven’t seem any reports of Ukrainian missile or drone atacks on civilians. Funny that, they haven’t the capability or perhaps the intention to terrorize Russian civilians.
It is an asymetrical war in many ways.
om, As to prognostication, tell that to Ben Hodges.
From a November 23, 2022 article in Insight News:
By the way, Ukraine has been using ATACMS on targets inside Ukraine for some time.
General Hodges: Ukrainian Army can liberate Mariupol by January, then Crimea
https://insightnews.media/general-hodges-ukrainian-army-can-liberate-mariupol-by-january-then-crimea/
Democratic Party “policy” goes a long way to answering that confounding question:
“But HOW did she GET so many votes???”…
“Minnesota Election Judge Faces Felony Charges For Allowing Unregistered People To Vote”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/minnesota-election-judge-faces-felony-charges-allowing-unregistered-people-vote
So let’s see now… Pennsylvania, Minnesota…OTHERS?
Maybe the question should be, Where DIDN’T they try to cheat?
The transgender issue isn’t going away, and we need to have a resolution to it.
I kiddingly suggested a few years ago, that instead of male and female signs at bathrooms, we should have penis and not penis signs. I don’t know how women feel about it, but if a man has fully transitioned with surgery she may not be a woman, but a trans woman in this case is also not a man.
I don’t know how many males have that surgery as part of their transition, but I imagine it’s a minority.
huxley,
Thanks for the link. I gave up on Zeihan about a year ago. He cites some interesting data, but he extrapolates overly bold predictions and he goes too far into the future. It’s hard enough to predict the economy of a single country over a 12 month period. 200+ countries’ behaviors over the course of decades is impossible. Nothing wrong with giving it a go, and stating opinions, but he’s way too confident and self-assured with all of his guesses.
I didn’t bother to watch the video, but, as you wrote, there are some fun take downs in the comments. I hope he reads them and tries to learn from them and adjust.
ArtflDgr,
Defenestration is also prominent in “Czech” and “Bohemian” history.
A fully “transitioned” biological male is just a biological male without a penis. I’m with Congresswoman Nancy Mace on this.
Biological males should also not be allowed in women’s sports.
Get this Crime Against Humanity out of the public schools also…
Karmi, I had a friend from college transition 30-40 years ago. If you didn’t know him you wouldn’t know he had been a male. I have no idea if he had bottom surgery, but using a bathroom I doubt a woman would know, since there are privacy stalls in women’s bathrooms.
When I saw her, I don’t recognize her and someone had to point out that Kendra had been Ken.
Using a bathroom and competing in a sport are different issues.
“Kendra” is a biological male with or without a penis…
Rather haughty “Presidential scholar” Alan Lichtman, a frequent guest on MSM shows, claimed that his “Thirteen Key” system for predicting presidential elections was very good indeed, predicting the correct outcome for every presidential election since 1984, and this time his system predicted that Harris would win.
When he was being roundly criticized by leftist Cenk Uygur for the abject failure of his system, Lichtman said that he would not stand for this “blasphemy” against me.
To which Uygur asked, “are you Jesus Christ?”*
* See https://dailycaller.com/2024/11/19/allan-lichtman-melts-down-cenk-uygur/
gender dysphoria is a mental condition. As I was typing this, I was watching 2 Way and a “cis-gendered male” who looked like a female was expressing concern about the safety of her community with the Trump election.
I think the view is most conservatives [at least me] is I don’t want to know your sexual/gender proclivities. If you are gay, I don’t need/want to know. If you are a male that wants to be accepted as a female– then act the part. I don’t need/want to know you used to by a “cis gendered male”.
I gained from that little interaction on the 2-way yahoo show was there is an element of exhibitionism that is a characteristic of dysphoria. The need for acceptance– and I think that may also be a characteristic of homosexuality. This is going to be an unsolvable issue– until the left regains control and makes it a capital crime to not show the correct level of acceptance/affirmation.
I only brought the topic up because Rep. Nancy Mace is going to introduce a rule in Congress that biological males cannot use women’s restrooms. There will be a transgender woman in the House next term and she is vehemently opposed due to a sexual assault in her past.
I like using ISW (Institute for the Study of War) – they rely heavily on Open-Source Intelligence
Yeah, it’s hard to hide from proof. Russia especially hates such Open-Source Intelligence. One site checked out some Russian “proof” of a “Ukrainian terrorist attack” in Ukraine that killed a pro-Russian Ukrainian. Russian morons showed pics of the person in the blown up car, and that skull damage had been done elsewhere and the body had been placed into the blown up car. Open-Source Intelligence proved it was false info.
Bellingcat is one of the Top Dogs in the Open-Source Intelligence ‘Business’.
Lots of others also…
Lots of pro-Russia Americans & RWM (right-wing media), along with the daily Russian disinformation efforts, have been desperately pushing the false narrative that “Ukraine is losing” or “Ukraine can’t win.” Open-Source Intelligence is proving otherwise…
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19, 2024
“1,000 days” and the once ‘MiGhTy’ Russian military is on its knees to Iran & North Korea – and *THAT* along with Open-Source Intelligence shows that Ukraine is holding its own, and Russia is both desperate and “is beginning to teeter.”
Hopefully, Trump doesn’t blow this opportunity…
Karmi, was your name Bob in another life?
Brian E – spoken like a true pro-Russia/Iran American…
Brian E:
Indeed, predicting outcomes in war is difficult. Should I dredge up predictions from Colonel McGreggor to amplify your point, or even from Vladimir Putin?
HIMARS and ATACMS have forced Russia to alter their tactics and caused hudge casualties, do you discount or deny that? Russia has been hounded out of the Black Sea, has lost control of part of their sacred motherland, and is in the 600k range of casualties in a 1000 day war that was expected and predicted to last 21 days.
Predicting what long range strikes on military targets in Russia will accomplish is bullshit. There are other platforms/weapons; Stormshadow/Scalp that may be allowed to rearrange Russian assets soon.
Payback, Vladdy.
Can anyone say they foresaw the bromance between Musk and Trumpvcoming a month or more ago? I sure didn’t!
Not only did Elon Musk plunk down a hundred or two million dollars in support of the former president, but he’s taken a break from all his entrepreneurship with several businesses, typically seeing him in the air twice a day or more— then insinuating himself into the Trump clan, gaining “uncle” status.
Successful new businesses are built by obsessives. And many credit Musk’s mega loss leadership buy of Twitter for creating open channel for Trump’s message in the Presidential election to reach voters of the nation!
I am amazed. Now, how helpful Elon Musk’s counsel will be to recruiting solid DC leadership in a decadent DC Federal government remains to be seen. But I’m enjoying the show so far.
Anyone else?
”Lots of pro-Russia Americans & RWM (right-wing media), along with the daily Russian disinformation efforts, have been desperately pushing the false narrative that ‘Ukraine is losing’ or ‘Ukraine can’t win.’
This “Russia stronk!” argument was always baffling. Russia has had a second-rate military since at least the fall of the Berlin Wall, yet from the start of this latest Russian invasion the conservative media have almost all painted Russia as invincible. Even now, three years into a three-day war, this message persists.
Just to show you how ridiculous this claim is, note that during Russia’s “blistering” (according to right-wing media) advances this last year, Russia captured roughly 2,455 square kilometers of Ukraine from Nov. 1, 2023 to Nov. 1, 2024. At this “blistering” rate of advance it will take Russia another *four years* just to capture the 9,600 square kilometers of Donetsk oblast it doesn’t already occupy and **200 years** to capture the rest of the country. (Donetsk is an oblast (province) that Russia invaded in 2014 and formally incorporated — including the parts it doesn’t yet control — into Mother Russia in 2023.)
Russia doesn’t have 200 years. Forget even the men. Within about four years Russia will be out of tanks and artillery, as the 75-year stockpile accumulated by the Soviet Union will be gone. Russia’s only hope of victory is that the Trump administration will successfully force Ukraine to effectively surrender.
The sad part is that the strategy appears to be working.
@ T. J. > “many credit Musk’s mega loss leadership buy of Twitter for creating open channel for Trump’s message in the Presidential election to reach voters of the nation!”
I don’t think there is any way to overstate the importance of Twitter’s change of ownership. Without the Twitter Files breaking open the massive act of government malfeasance in second-hand censorship, and then X un-censoring conservatives and sane liberals (or at least some of them), there would probably not have been a Trump victory.
The efforts of Trump’s campaign to go anywhere and talk to anybody were fruitful in the venues they went to, especially among black and Hispanic communities, but the resulting news stories, podcasts, etc. were amplified tremendously by publicizing them on X, which he was prevented from doing on Twitter in 2020.
As usual, Elon said it best:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/musk.png
If the election had been a movie:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/elms-deeps.jpg?w=819
Rhetoric kind of depends on your point of view:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/gb1-7roxwaaptkr.png?w=1024
AND finally, what the voters told their elected representatives:
https://accordingtohoyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/1700855881832337412.jpg
I decided spare you a couple of dozen Peanut Victorious memes, but you can go to Sarah’s blog and check out her Friday Meme posts for the last couple of weeks.
Elon’s brief remark that I linked to is explained very well in this lengthy post from Matt Taibbi.
https://www.racket.news/p/how-americas-accurate-election-polls
“How America’s Accurate Election Polls Were Covered Up —
The Real Clear Politics National Average was removed by Wikipedia before the election and the New York Times denounced its failure to skew data. A solution to the “mystery” of crappy polling?”
Puget Sound hammered by high winds. PSE has 347.5k customers without power. SNOPud another 116.7k.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/yogapilates/washington-post-s-jennifer-rubin-urges-dems-to-say-republicans-want-to-kill-your-kids/vi-AA1uoDe0?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=c29ad325c810419fb99fc6008f166fca&ei=12
==
How often does John Podhoretz suffer bouts of heartburn realizing that he promoted this woman’s career as an opinion journalist and some of his testimonials to her he penned 15 years ago can still be located online?
The transgender issue isn’t going away, and we need to have a resolution to it.
==
Eliminate 3d party payments for it, tell people demanding ‘accommodation’ to pound sand, and bankrupt practitioners with malpractice suits. That will largely resolve it. You want to go the extra mile, put the medical ghouls who poison people with hormones and butcher them with unnecessary surgery in prison where they belong. There’s your resolution.
Sunny Hostin looks dejected as she is forced to read out awkward memo on The View just minutes after trashing Matt Gaetz
Former federal prosecutor Sunny didn’t look very sunny after sticking her foots in her mouth…
Are you stocked up with Iodine pills?
Norwegians are told to stock up on iodine, Swedes are given bomb shelter guide and Finns are reminded of ‘defence obligation’ amid growing risk of war with Russia
I stocked up in 2022 (good to 2032), so forgot what to look for and get. One said old people – something like old people already have iodine in system, and that younger people are the ones who need it…I dunno tho. Bought it anyway…
Guess our pro-Russia commenters here have forgot about Russian NUKE threats during late fifties thru sixties (?)…and again now.
For those who haven’t seen it, here is Mollie Hemingway’s investigation of the Gaetz charges and why the DOJ didn’t charge him. The charges come from an entirely unreliable convicted felon who tried the same sort of scam on someone else. Not credible.
https://thefederalist.com/2024/11/17/house-probe-into-matt-gaetz-relies-on-witnesses-doj-found-lacked-credibility/
There is always someone who is the last one to get the memo or, perhaps, never even gets it at all.
See the new Jaguar ad.
* See https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14102135/jaguar-car-dei-rebrand-ad-critics-URL.html
Sounds like Senate REPs are screwing up as usual…
Senate GOP fumes at JD Vance over vote no-shows…
Puget Sound Energy alone has over 400k accounts without power this morning. Practically the whole east side is dark. Issaquah hard hit. Enumclaw recorded 77 mph gust. Saw a tree down on a security camera view at a vacant house of mine right before the power went out. Last time this happened (2006) it took a week to get power back.
Based on this new ad, there is an obvious brand name change for “Jaguar” which comes to mind.
Chases Eagles, best wishes for you and your area. Stay safe.
“Brian E – am going to add you to my new pro-Russis/Iran Americans list…” – Karmi
Can you upgrade me to a Putin lover? What an honor to be in the same company as Tulsi Gabbard! Of course, om had me as a Putin lover long before you even showed up.
I don’t need to talk about Russia’s shortcomings as you, om and mkent have that covered. What you’re failing to understand is the manpower shortfall that Ukraine is facing. While Russia may face manpower issues in possibly 2025, or maybe 2026, or almost certainly 2027 (according to ISW), Ukraine is facing the issue now.
And Ukraine can’t “fix” that– without taking drastic measures they have refused to take. And if they don’t have the political will to mobilize the number of men they need– that suggests there isn’t enough men to draft, or there isn’t the popular support in the country, or they don’t really believe Russia intends to occupy the entire country.
The ISW report you linked to has so many qualifiers to be almost meaningless. For example: “there are mounting indicators that this system is beginning to teeter”. Ok, how many years until it does teeter? Then how many years before it falls? 2-3 years?
Ukraine doesn’t have 2-3 years.
You shouldn’t ignore the realities on the eastern front.
Why Ukraine’s war is in a bad place
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-joe-biden-us-weapons-troops-donetsk-region-deep-state-shortage/
https://rmsothebys.com/auctions/hf17/lots/r158-1955-jaguar-xk-140-mc-roadster/
https://metrommp.com/Classic-Car-Guides-Ratings-Features/Jaguar/1990-Jaguar-Xjs-Catalog/
https://www.jaguarhinsdale.com/2023-jaguar-f-type/
From an aesthetic standpoint, decline. Over many decades.
Why Ukraine’s war is in a bad place
==
At some point, it would be agreeable if Putin admirers figured out their predictive ability is less than stellar.
Are you saying Politico.eu is a Putin admirer?
Brian E
Heck *NO*!!! You are without a doubt a pro-Russia/Iran American. Can’t speak for om, but suspect that he was just taking it easy on you with the “Putin lover” label.
You seem to arrive at the wrong conclusion so often…possibly a Guinness World Record.
Anyway, of course I know Ukraine is facing manpower shortages, but not so much as to pay South Korea to send troops to help. Russia is putting theirs thru the infamous *MEAT GRINDER* and Ukraine is still holding back many whilst planning for the future after the war. I wrote about that a while back.
Go back and read my Open-Source Intelligence comment. Instead of those bogus and/or Russian propaganda sites you keep reading for your so-called “source” – try some factually based Open-Source sites…
That comment will also mentions the ‘“1,000 days” and the once ‘MiGhTy’ Russian military is on its knees to Iran & North Korea’ -– that’s desperate—that’s teetering on the brink of losing. Have read rumors that Russia is going to bring in 100,000 more North Korean troops because Ukraine is killing so many Russians that Russia can’t replace them without going to some kind of full or similar draft, and Putin is afraid that would bring the wrath of the Russian people down on him.
Again, of course Ukraine is facing manpower shortages, but not like your *BELOVED* Russian propaganda sites are telling you. Ukraine has like 1/3 the population of Russia, and maybe ¼ the military that Russia has, but as mkent said at November 20, 2024 at 12:54 am in this thread:
Some people would rather die than to lose their freedom, but apparently pro-Russia Americans and pro-Russia/Iran American you don’t understand. Ukraine has been fighting Russia since 2014 or 2015. Europe is preparing for war with Russia. NATO has grown since Russia reinvaded Ukraine, and it is also preparing for war with Russia.
Americans are not going to let Trump give Ukraine to Russia, so Putin’s gamble is about to leave Russia in a much weaker position…IMHO.
UPDATE: Just read where America is sending landmines!? Had wondered why Ukraine didn’t have more mined areas…fuking Biden should’ve already sent them. Better late than never, and those mines will get stepped on by a lot of North Koreans. These are supposedly terrible mines on troops…
Brain E has been shaping the Russian war on Ukraine for 1000 days and always returns to the Yanukovitch sad trombone of 2014. Because of course the Ukrainian constitution not the actual war being waged by Russia against those who don’t want to be under the Russian boot forever.
Karmi, what sources I’ve linked to do you consider “your *BELOVED* Russian propaganda sites?”
I won’t use those in the future.
Since you linked to The Economist, I assume you consider it a reliable source.
From Nov. 20 article Most Ukrainians now want an end to the war:
Even though the article tried to tie the drop in support for the war to the election of Trump, the survey was done in August and September, when Trump’s election was in doubt.
The Ukrainian people– even those in western Ukraine where there is less effect from the war are doubting the ability to “win”. The reason why Ukraine didn’t go along with the mobilization they originally were trying to pass of 500,000 was because the politicians realized it was political suicide– so they settled on a smaller mobilization of 160,000 and even then they are drafting people with physical disabilities.
They are already not reaching their monthly targets and the total mobilization may be closer to 100,000.
One of the problems is mkent is using the failed blitzkrieg that the Russian army began with in 2022 and the success Ukraine had in repelling their attacks. That was the highwater and the best chance Ukraine had to get a favorable settlement. This isn’t 2022 and Russia is using the tactic they know– trench warfare.
There are several key towns that have been the bulwark of defense for the Ukrainians– highly fortified. But if or when they fall, it will be much easier for Russia to continue advancing west as there aren’t the trenches to the west of these towns.
mkent sometime back linked to a story that said Russia would run of military equipment/armored vehicles in 2027. Even the ISW assessment you linked to only suggests Russia’s capability are beginning to teeter. Let’s assume that they will have their own manpower shortages by sometime in 2027. Can Ukraine’s manpower shortage hang on for 2-21/2 years?
I asked art deco if he considered Politico.eu as Russian propaganda, but here’s some statistics from the article I linked to about casualties.
Now you just claimed that Russia has suffered 700,000+ dead and 2 million wounded– which are the numbers Ukraine is claiming. These numbers are unrealistic. At the same time, most analysts (including the US DOD) think Zelensky’s claim 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers is also propaganda.
I’ve read from several sources the number is likely at least 70,000 dead and 200,000+ wounded for Ukraine– which would be 270,000 casualties. Most analysts think the 720,000 “liquidated” claim by the Ukrainians is likely 720,000 casualties for Russia.
We are 2 years into the war (or half way if Russia can continue fighting at this pace (or something like it) for 2 more years. So now we’re speculating which army is going to run out of soldiers first. Can Ukraine afford to suffer another 270,000 casualties or can Russia afford to suffer another 720,000 casualties?
Let’s look at the funding. This years bill was $60,000 billion– of which less than $20 billion was for military aid and the rest was for the support of the Ukraine budget. Getting reliable numbers on how much the US has sent to Ukraine is almost impossible to find, but it’s somewhere between $150-200 billion. For the scenario I’m describing, we would need to send at least another $200 billion to get Ukraine to 2027. So by 2027 Ukraine will be devastated and will still have not driven the Russians back to the pre 2014 border. They may or may not be in a position to negotiate anything better than settling now.
And the west still will have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to rebuild a smaller Ukraine get them on their feet.
I think this reality is finally dawning on the people of Ukraine. They are tired of the war. Yes, the ultra-nationalists will want to continue fighting– but they are a minority.
Sometimes the bad guys win.
Most Ukrainians now want an end to the war
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2024/11/20/most-ukrainians-now-want-an-end-to-the-war
Karmi, those are anti-personnel landmines. The US has been providing anti-tank mines all along.
Karmi, another The Economist article outlining the seriousness of Ukraine’s manpower weakness.
Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win
https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/10/29/ukraine-is-now-struggling-to-cling-on-not-to-win
Brian E
This is why discussing with you is useless. Akin to trying to carry on a discussion with a Progressive, i.e., just lots of muddy water and few if any actual facts…
We just had a discussion on “sources” not being reliable. I don’t consider Economist to be reliable or unreliable. As I said in the November 9, 2024 at 10:46 am comment on deceptive, wrong, mistaken, etc. that readers & commenters need to double-check anything they read—including links that neo uses as “sources”.
Also, this is exactly why I made the Open-Source Intelligence comment at November 19, 2024 at 10:54 pm, and suggested you use “sources” that actually have Open-Source proof in them. You don’t use them for a reason – you are a pro-Russia/Iran American, and you don’t want actual facts.
I also linked to Bellingcat as one of the Top Dogs in the Open-Source Intelligence info, and the ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19, 2024 article which used Open-Source info to show that Russia is the one suffering the most from manpower shortages—shortages that will become worse in 2025.
Show me Open-Source intel – not speculation and/or pro-Russia right-wing American propaganda and/or Russian propaganda…
Bellingthecat is a nsa ghcq contractor that occassionally turns up good intel as in blind squirrel (like the berlin shooter that biden traded for some magic beans
Bellingcat
Russians and pro-Russia Americans hate Bellingcat…
Who We Are
Did I mention that Russians and pro-Russia Americans hate Bellingcat? Yes I did…good.
My favorite example of Open-Source workings and excellent work done by Bellingcat:
‘Exploiting Cadavers ’and ‘Faked IEDs’: Experts Debunk Staged Pre-War ‘Provocation’ in the Donbas
Open-Source research like that is why Russia and pro-Russia Americans hate Bellingcat…
“This is why discussing with you is useless.” -Karmi
I don’t hate good intel. But I do think we need to be skeptical. For instance– your using Ukraine’s casualty figures for Russian losses. Why should we believe them? Ukraine is in the business of propaganda when it comes to the war.
Just as are organizations like ISW. The key is balancing the opposing sources and look at how they frame their “data”. This can help determining something approximating reality.
I’m not finding much from you but ad hominem attacks. I need data/estimates that are grounded in something more than “mounting evidence that Russia is beginning to teeter”. That is narrative.
And framing everything in relation to 2022 is narrative. This is not the same war that was being fought in 2022. Russia learned from it’s disastrous assumptions that they were going to be met with flowers as they rode into Kyiv.
Remember when the narrative was Russia was running out of missiles and their troops were fighting with shovels? I’m not accusing you of saying things like that, but that was the narrative for a time.
I have watched the support in Ukraine for the war dwindle this year, as the realities of the destruction was brought home. If the Ukrainian people had an opportunity to vote (which they don’t under martial law) and they voted to settle the war, would you support their decision?
That would be a good start– to have an election or a referendum on continuing the war. In fact, once and if there are negotiations led by President Trump, it would be useful for a pause to the fighting and allow the Ukrainian people vote on whether to accept any deal.
people don’t understand the Russian mindset, the Russo Turkish wars which happened around the time of our Revolution, is very vivid in their memory, same with the Crimean war, it’s not ancient history for them,
Karmi- I also use open source intelligence– just different sources.
I’ve found him to be knowledgeable on military tactics and evenhanded in his reporting. While he would like to see Ukraine prevail– he is trying to be neutral in his analysis.
He provides mostly daily updates, though he is beginning a new round of treatments for brain cancer and that has affected the timing of his broadcasts. He also flew to Israel and provided analysis of the beginning of the Israeli strikes into Gaza and later Lebanon.
He might provide you with another source to add to what you’re reading now. This is his latest broadcast.
Huge Strikes – Russia Launches An ICBM | Future Reality For Crimea – Ukraine Map Update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dnu6GTikrM
If the people of Russia had the opportunity to vote ….. Brain E?
Still shaping the narrative I see.