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So, what about those polls? — 5 Comments

  1. Related:
    “Polymarket Vindicated After Trump Landslide As France Moves To Ban Betting Platform“—
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/polymarket-vindicated-after-trump-landslide-france-moves-ban-betting-platform

    + Bonus:
    “Opinion | Donald Trump is going to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Here are three reasons why”—
    https://blazingcatfur.ca/2024/11/07/i-predicted-donald-trumps-win-heres-why-so-many-got-it-wrong/
    H/T Blazingcatfur blog.

  2. The Obama/“Biden” master plan of fomenting divisiveness, division and despair at every level—racial, judicial, social, family, education, economic, energy, military, medical, scientific, international relations ALONG WITH the Media’s enthusiastic collusion with this poisonous and destructive strategy continues to bear its toxic fruit, accelerated exponentially to insane levels by the election results.

    Gosh! Who’da thunk it?
    “The Women’s Wave Fell Short For Kamala Harris. What Happened?“—
    https://blazingcatfur.ca/2024/11/07/the-womens-wave-fell-short-for-kamala-harris-what-happened/
    H/T Blazingcatfur blog.

    In spite of all the animus and hysteria, it’s now up to the sane, the optimistic, the hopeful and the energetic, encouraged by new leaders—and, one hopes, a chastened media—to start to turn things around.

  3. The problem is that without unpacking the methodology of each poll and somehow deciding which was the correct one, all we have is hindsight to say which poll “got it right”. And because we’re using hindsight we have no way to know if that same poll will be right next time, even if nothing else changes.

    Imagine if I put 100 people in a room and asked them to call a fair coin flip. 99% of the time, somewhere between 37 and 63 people call it correctly. I dismiss the ones who didn’t, they are bad coin callers.

    I take my remaining 37 to 63 people and ask them to call another one. Somewhere between 11 and 42 get it right. I dismiss the remainder, clearly they did not know what they were doing.

    I take my remaining 11 to 42 people and ask them to call another one. Somewhere between 1 and 29 get it right. They get to stay. What’s their secret for calling these coin flips?

    If I do this 5 times I get somewhere between 0 and 8 people who correctly called all five. But there’s still not strong evidence these guys are somehow psychic. It is exactly what is predicted by a 50/50 coin toss assuming that people guess randomly.

    If I flip long enough they will eventually all fail, though some may keep getting it right a surprising number of times–there’s a 9% chance that at least 1 of those 100 people will call ten in a row. That’s even assuming nothing changes.

    That guy who gets 10 in a row may have told you he uses the same method every time, he may even have said every time it’s coming up heads, but there’s still no better than 50% that he’ll be right on the next one.

  4. I keep seeing the map showing that Harris did not outperform Biden in any county in the country. I think everyone is reading that wrong. Of course she didn’t outperform him–they added 15 million votes to his total in 2020 that have magically just disappeared this time. Subtract those 15 million votes from the obvious places where those ballots somehow don’t exist this time around, and you might have some counties here and there where she did outperform Biden. Gosh, it’s hard to understand why 15 million apparent Democrat voters didn’t vote this time, even though they were told the opponent was another Hitler….mystifying, isn’t it?

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