Thoughts on the election
Wow, what a night. And, as has become typical in recent years, we still don’t know about several Senate races or who will take control of the House.
But much as Trump dodged a real bullet on July 13 in Butler, PA, the US dodged a metaphorical bullet last night. And it was thanks to the hard work of Trump, Vance, their staffs – including many election lawyers who acted on reports of possible fraud and other problems in the days leading up to the election in a timely and effective fashion – and perhaps most of all, the American voter. In particular it was thanks to many erstwhile Democrat voters who decided that they couldn’t in all conscience vote for Harris and either sat home or voted for Trump this time, giving him a more solid victory than ever before.
Will the Democrats manage to find those extra votes to put them over the top in the states that are still undecided? About twenty years ago, Hugh Hewitt wrote a book entitled If It’s Not Close They Can’t Cheat. And although I assume that some of the as-yet-undecided places in which Trump is only slightly ahead now, or races in which another Republican is barely leading, will ultimately turn blue, I think this Trump victory is decisive enough that it will hold, and that there’s little question that the Senate will be controlled by the GOP.
More and more things are going to emerge about this election as time goes on and they crunch the numbers, but here are my thoughts so far:
(1) Polls were essentially worthless this year. But at least the pollsters didn’t speak with false confidence; they basically said “Hey, it’s 50/50 but what that means is that we haven’t a clue.” So I appreciate the honesty.
(2) Yes, there is a “shy Trump voter” phenomenon. I’m one of them. A lot of people say they’ve never been called by a pollster, but I’ve gotten many such calls and I always say, “I’m not interested” and hang up.
(3) Trump’s energy is astounding for any age, much less for a man of his age.
(4) I had almost forgotten about Melania. It was nice to see her up there on the dais – or the podium or whatever it’s called – looking beautiful and happy.
(5) Barron was by far the tallest person standing in front of that crowd late last night, and in general it’s a very tall bunch and so that’s saying something.
(6) J. D. Vance turned out to have been a tremendous asset, whereas Tim Walz was one of many poor decisions by Harris.
(7) Harris was rude to her supporters, choosing not to address them last night.
(8) The pundits on Fox looked giddy last night, the CNN folks looked very glum. And the CNN newspeople seem as clueless as ever; they were analyzing why Trump won and why Harris lost and several sadly and condescendingly said “racism and sexism.” Keep thinking that rather than pointing out her extraordinary weaknesses.
(9) Remember Michael Steele, who was head of the RNC from 2009-2011? I don’t generally watch TV news and hadn’t seen him or thought of him in ages, but last night I discovered that he’s found a home on MSNBC and is a NeverTrumper. He said some extraordinary things during the few minutes of the broadcast I watched. One was that, somehow, the Republicans had succeeded in tying Kamala Harris to the failed Biden administration. Ya think? And this was uttered as though making such a connection would require some sort of pretzel-like gymnastics to pull off.
(10) There was one guy on MSNBC – I didn’t catch his name – who pointed out some interesting things, while standing in front of maps. He looked at a number of blue states and blue districts that Harris won, and compared them to Clinton’s total share in 2016 and Biden’s total share in 2020. Harris consistently did worse than both of them. Also, the gap between Biden’s percentage of the vote and Harris’ percentage of the vote was often about a five percent dropoff.
(11) Jen Psaki has also found a cozy gig on MSNBC. I hadn’t missed her, either.
(12) Someone (again, I don’t recall who) on MSNBC mentioned that Harris lost ground with all demographics compared to Biden, except for white college-educated women. I guess Biden gets to say, “See, you should have let me run again,” although of course many other factors have changed compared to 2020, including Biden himself.
(13) I don’t know which thing I’m more relieved about – that Trump won or that Harris lost. Let’s call it 50/50.
(14) Trump will have his work cut out for him.
(15) We still don’t know who won the House, but the Senate results are heartening.
(16) I’m struck once again at how, when there’s a trend – in this case it was that Trump did better than most polls and pundits predicted – the phenomenon is often exhibited across the board. He did better almost everywhere.
I remain dumbfounded by the fact that if the Dems nominated an actual person with actual beliefs that this thing might have swung the other way. Harris is the worst major candidate of my lifetime. Hell, Fritz Mondale would have done better.
sharksauce:
Exactly. The results of this election should have been about 80 to 20. They were way too close, considering what an empty vessel Harris is. However, many voters will reflexively vote for the Democrat. And abortion was a factor, too, as well as rampant Trump-hatred.
But at least the pollsters didn’t speak with false confidence; they basically said “Hey, it’s 50/50 but what that means is that we haven’t a clue.”
This was, I think evidence of a different kind of dishonesty from what we are used to. Nate Silver pointed out that with such a large number of polls and such small sample sizes, not nearly as many of them should have come out to 50/50, sampling uncertainty at minimum should have produced many more where one candidate led (and averaging them would have given 50/50).
I hope that the people who do polls can take a break for a few years while they try to figure out what they need to do to.
This is what has traditionally been called a MANDATE.
It is the American electorate clearly saying: F*ck you, Leftist globalists.
Maybe not “nuanced,” but understandable.
No federally sanctioned baby murders of third trimester infants in the name of elective birth control, no more child grooming or mutilation. No more open borders and the resulting child and female sex trafficking, rapes, murders and drug addiction. No more printing money and the resulting out of control inflation. No more support of the bloodbath that is Ukraine.
If you had told me a year ago, that I’d be voting with the Amish, Arabs, Muslims and Somalis, as well as black men and Hispanics—and Joe Rogan and Danica Patrick and Elon Musk!
What a world!!! hmm?
Apparently Baron Trump is a towering 6’9 and supposedly at 18 years old may not have even reached his final height yet. Not sure if he plays basketball, but maybe he should at least consider it if he has even a modicum of athletic ability.
The stock market reaction is amazing. That’s gotta hurt the Dems, though they will probably say it’s just proof that Trump favors the wealthy. But a lot of middle class have retirement money in the market. And Harris wanted effectively a wealth tax. All those Nobel Prize economists that signed a letter saying Trump would be bad for the economy have egg on their faces, though Biden has left Trump with a stinking pile of garbage (appropriately now that Trump has donned the mantle of garbage man).
Raw Egg Nationalist:
https://x.com/Babygravy9/status/1854136162467696891
1min48sec video at link.
Could Trump get a shot at appointing another Three SC Justices?
He won’t have Mitch McConnell to push them thru…who is strong enough to get 1-3 SC candidates thru?
• Clarence Thomas 76 (2 years younger than me)
• Samuel A. Alito 74
• Sonia Maria Sotomayo 70 (looks like she could go at any time)
Any of them ready to retire – ‘Early‘?
This is an excellent explainer for those who don’t understand how Trump won – and sort of a liberal Western anti-woke manifesto. Long but worth it, and excerptable:
https://jeffgoldstein.substack.com/p/i-am-not-voting-for-donald-trump
I sorta hope that Clarence Thomas decides to retire before Trumps term is up so he can be safely replaced. Don’t Ruth Bader Ginsburg it.
Yep, Baron Trump should give BB a try. He need only jump about 6″ off the floor to dunk the ball.
But he would need to bulk up to be effective unless he can shoot from 3 point range with other-worldly accuracy; sort of like Caitlin Clark (of WNBA fame) or Steph Curry (of NBA fame).
Thank GOD Trump prevailed !!!
I had assumed that either Trump or the Cackler had a good chance to win.
The “map guy” on NBC (if it’s who I am thinking of) became something of a celebrity to the lefties when he (I guess) projected hope of a Biden victory in the hours before the “fortification” took place.
He parlayed that into a bunch of side gigs on NBC, one of which was trying to be a horse racing analyst on big televised races for the past 4 years, during which I don’t believe he picked a single winner (including this past Saturday during the Breeders’ Cup).
My spider sense is not tingling.
It was a big win for Trump. Could there be a peaceful transfer of power?
I hope, I hope, I hope.
No offense to Baron meant, but that kid gets eaten alive on a basketball court.
Do not count on Kamala to become pro-American. She has until January 21 to wreak harm on the deplorables who did not see her “majesty”.
Now… whether it’s your custom or not, let’s pray that POTUS Trump stays upright and healthy until the 2029 peaceful transfer of power.
Collin Rugg:
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1854230895743439285
Trump needs to hit the ground running. Since he already a lame duck, he can’t waste a day. Name Vance acting AG so the senate can’t slow walk his AG to protect the DOJ trash. The lawyers and judges that engaged in lawfare against him AND the J6ers need to be offered an escape route from the consequences by undoing what they have done and if they don’t take it, then burn them to the ground.
The civil service laws need to be kicked to the curb as unconstitutional and then wholesale firings of the disloyal bastards commences. He should get the longest serving out first. They have had their share at the trough. Let the youngsters have turn.
Three obvious people need to be arrested about 1 minute after Trump takes the oath.
I was conned by the glitterati, the media, and the polls into underestimating the American voter. While the shrill voices echoed across the land, the average voter was going about life. But collectively they made their voices heard when it counted.
I apologize to them; and I thank them from the bottom of my heart.
I should think that the margin of victory is large enough to discourage shenanigans by the pros. But I will be surprised if the street thugs don’t use this as an excuse for mischief.
Caught the video of Megyn Kelly’s talk at the Trump rally. Wow! I wonder if she has a slot in the administration–Communications Directors seems appropriate.
Finally, it is clear to me that Trump is a ‘force of nature’ unlike anything we are likely to see any time soon.
PS I would like to see Trump ‘retire’ after two or three years, once he has set the direction, and hand the baton to Vance. I have come to believe that Vance is the future.
On a state level, Mark Robinson’s gubernatorial campaign was soundly defeated, as I thought it would be, and along with him we lost the AG and Lt. Gov. offices. We also lost the NC House supermajority by one house seat. The newly-elected governor is against school choice in North Carolina. I hope the federal government will give us some help with this by restricting funding for any university or state which incorporates DEI into its instruction materials.
@sdferr:The DOJ cited their policy that presidents can’t be prosecuted
The DOJ reports to the President of the United States and cannot have any policy other than the one the sitting President sets. Where do these people get off pretending they answer to no one?
Article II Section I: The executive power shall be vested in a President of the United States of America. I don’t see ‘except for the Department of Justice which has its own’ in there.
Chases Eagles, et alia,
I think you’ll see one of the most prepared administrations to take over the White House this January. Trump is much wiser this time, but, regardless, he is surrounded by big name, type A people with bold plans. They will not let his first 2 years go fallow.
@Chases Eagles:Since he already a lame duck,
This term has hugely expanded in my lifetime. It was originally the part of a President’s term between the election and the inauguration of the next President; Joe Biden is as of today a “lame duck” under that definition. Somehow it got expanded to “any President in his second term”, which doesn’t really make sense, especially not for Trump.
including many election lawyers who acted on reports of possible fraud and other problems in the days leading up to the election in a timely and effective fashion
Putting in a good word here for Lara Trump, who took over an RNC that could charitably be described as “ineffective” under Ronna and turned it into a turnout machine and an aggressive legal watchdog on The Enfraudening.
Excellent piece by Jeff Goldstein linked by Ben David. Interesting because Goldstein was a conservative blogger who had issues with Trump and I don’t think he reconciled himself as quickly as say neo did. Or myself sorta though I voted for Trump all three times. The significance of and need for Trump has been sinking in on Americans for nearly a decade now and the election showed it overcoming the furious campaign against him. Which likely still hasn’t ended so beware.
Victory is sweet. Then comes facing the road not taken — accounting for the costs not to be cashiered. Finally.
Last night, Elon Musk features a clip in his Tucker Carlson interview — becoming a stem for Elon’s further accolades for President Trump. Via X.com:
Elon Musk
@elonmusk
·
Follow
Sure it was a lot of pressure, but it pales by comparison with President @realDonaldTrump, who they tried to kill twice, bankrupt and imprison for eternity
Autism Capital
@AutismCapital
TUCKER: “So how much pressure has there been on you to shut down X?”
ELON: “Well apart from multiple democrats saying they want to put me in jail, take away government contracts from my companies, nationalize my companies, deport me as an illegal, and have me arrested for…”
===================
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1854024475559248300?
It would be wonderful if an expert in de-programming severely indoctrinated people would wet up a website and free de-programming assistance. There are several million intelligent Americans who cannot de-program themselves
They need help in getting back to having a desire to search for the facts, understanding what the MSM has done to them these past years, and being able to accept how they have been conned. Many of these people are well educated–they are not stupid–just too vulnerable! We need a serious program helping them to make this recovery. One reasonable and well-informed step at a time! Don’t we have some of these well-trained individuals in our millitary? Maybe free 15 minutes after dinner time on Fox TV !
It would be wonderful if an expert in de-programming severely indoctrinated people would wet up a website and free de-programming assistance.
Anne:
With respect, and speaking as an ex-leftist, I don’t think there is much we can do directly for our woke brethren. As AA says, that’s an “inside job.”
The best we and Trump can do is to be just and competent and to proceed as Abraham Lincoln recommended in his immortal Second Inaugural Address:
____________________________
With malice toward none with charity for all with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right let us strive on to finish the work we are in to bind up the nation’s wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan ~ to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.
–Abraham Lincoln, “Second Inaugural Address” (March 4, 1865, only 41 days before his assassination)
https://www.nps.gov/linc/learn/historyculture/lincoln-second-inaugural.htm
____________________________
Amen.
Such good advice huxley.
I disliked the constant use of the phrase “word salad” about Kamala but as I listened to a few of Kamala’s interviews toward the end of the campaign, I was astounded that she could speak at length and say absolutely nothing. It wasn’t zen-like. It was carefully constructed sentences that contained no information.
The point is, while the media portrays Trump’s supporters as “low propensity”, under-educated and Kamala’s supporters as educated and intelligent– how could “educated” people not be revulsed at her speaking at length and passing along no information.
Which points to the great divide in the country. It’s the same country, but people perceive totally different realities. Neo addressed that somewhat in her post about “Why would people vote for Kamala”, but it’s a great mystery. Did these people just project what they wanted her to do onto her answers that were devoid of meaning?
Brian E:
A think a lot of Democrats never listened to her interviews and therfore had no need to react to them.
neo, I bet in many cases they knew deep down what a loser she was going to be and didn’t want to be reminded.
I disliked the constant use of the phrase “word salad” about Kamala but as I listened to a few of Kamala’s interviews toward the end of the campaign, I was astounded that she could speak at length and say absolutely nothing. It wasn’t zen-like. It was carefully constructed sentences that contained no information.
Brian E:
That’s a cogent observation. Most people don’t know that “word salad” is a psychiatric term of art for describing the disordered speech of schizophrenics.
Going further, the psychiatrist R.D. Laing argued that such schizophrenic speech could be understood as an effort to resolve a mental “double blind” — to respond to contradictory social demands by going outside the box and saying things which don’t ultimately make sense.
I interpret Harris’ word salad thus:
If I am to be elected, I must be authentic.
If I am authentic, I will be rejected and not elected.
Therefore, I must say something which sounds authentic but doesn’t say anything at all.
Several reasoned people whose writings I follow suggested that Trump should win handily, Victor Davis Hanson being the most prominent. I was burned so badly in 2020 that I couldn’t bring myself to believe that. I would have saved a lot of fretting if I had just believed them.
Dana Loesch had Glenn Reynolds on yesterday. Glenn suggested that if Trump wins he could do worse than model himself like Javier Melei. By that he urged Trump to use the next 2.5 months to decide which of the alphabet agencies should be cut/relocated and by how much. He likened it to having a group of jets lined up on a runway. He also said Trump should do these changes in a Fast & Furious manner so the media can’t concentrate on any one instance. Not if they happen every 2-3 days.
FOAF:
No, I don’t think they knew that at all. I think that what they DID know is that they’d be voting for her no matter what, because of the depth of their hate/fear of Trump. So they didn’t need to bother to watch her interviews, which they probably assumed would be good enough.
Oldflyer:
I also would like to see Megyn Kelly take the job as communications director.
And, I agree: Vance is the future. I’m very happy with that.
But . . . is America ready for a bearded president?
(7) Harris was rude to her supporters, choosing not to address them last night.
That’s interesting. I’m reminded of Oleg Atbashian’s description of the latter stages of the Soviet Union, where the labor unions still imagined or hoped that they had a little power or sway over government actions, but didn’t. They had no power because all power had been consolidated at the top.
Contrast that with the Dems. They really still need that union influence, and Kamala can’t give them some of her precious time? Even in a post-election moment. Dumb.
One of my brothers is a far lefty and during the Hillary/Trump campaign volunteered to do get-out-the-vote work for Hillary. He recounted just how shabby his treatment was by Hillary’s extended campaign. And he emailed a bunch of people about it.
These things tend to give me hope. Maybe the sleazy personalities of many of the left wing politicians does tend to shine through in unexpected ways.
On May 1st, 2016, the White House Correspondent’s dinner was held. There, when it came time to give his speech, rather than roast members of the Press and Media, which is the standard exchange of the various speeches that are given, President Obama instead decided to humiliate Donald Trump.
Although not a member of the media or the Administration, Trump had repeated the dirty-trick rumor that Hillary Clinton had paid for – that Obama had not been born in the USA, and had no birth certificate to prove otherwise. This made Trump the target of Obama’s ridicule, and Obama laid it on thick.
You can review the videos of this public humiliation yourself to evaluate it, but Trump sat there and took it. And within 2 months, was making himself into the candidate for 2016.
So I contend that much of this entire 8-year period has been a dueling dance between Trump and Obama, with Obama’s third term there in the middle, and has now concluded with Obama being completely vanquished by Trump’s determination and mettle. There will be no fourth term-by-proxy for Obama. The lawfare cases will wither up and blow away, as if they were dust. Obama is done; Trump has won. I’m betting that the DC mansion will go onto the market pretty soon, as DC will soon become a place of bad odor and unpleasant remembrances for its owner.
I think you’ll see one of the most prepared administrations to take over the White House this January.
An acquaintance of mine who was in the first Trump administration told me a month or so ago that they are hard at work planning and lining up talent so that they can hit the ground running, something he acknowledged they did not do in 2016. I suspect that in 2016, not being insiders, they had no idea what they were up against, and maybe also didn’t really expect to win. They’ve learned, which is good.
Yes, Trump has blood in his eyes and he won’t be walking naively into multiple traps this time.
All those who believe Trump is prepared for his 2nd term are showing the effects of Hope over Experience. I have never heard him say anything that I consider specific and explicit about “draining the swamp”. Perhaps he is being coy and doesn’t want to give away his plans. Going off his first term, he will spend way more money than we have and produce much smaller gains than expected. This is how low we have fallen; that we expect a party of Socialists to behave like Capitalists.
BenDavid,
That Jeff Goldstein link was awesome.
Thanks very much…
Neo: “(6) J. D. Vance turned out to have been a tremendous asset, whereas Tim Walz was one of many poor decisions by Harris.” We might think that if Harris had picked Penn. Governor Josh Shapiro things might have gone better for her. But today I received a status flyer from the FIRE organization where they highlight an episode where he tries to implement a gag order on state employees, and FIRE will go after him for 1st Amendment violations. Not a good look for a VP candidate, either.
and from (8) “… analyzing why Trump won and why Harris lost and several sadly and condescendingly said “racism and sexism.” But because her “race” and sex were the criteria for which she was selected, without regard to any considerations of real merit, then racism and sexism were why she and the Dems lost. [Or perhaps an F U from Biden to Obama? Will we ever really know if that is true?]
“(9) Remember Michael Steele, who was head of the RNC from 2009-2011?” Which still leaves the longer term question of just how folks like Michael Steele, or even Ryan, Romney, McConnell got to the positions they held if they also were really “elite” wanna-bees or thought themselves above the ordinary citizen.
Now on to read the comments – apologies if I duplicated someone else’s remarks.
Niketas Choniates on November 6, 2024 at 2:09 pm said:
“I hope that the people who do polls can take a break for a few years while they try to figure out what they need to do to.” Perhaps if they had spent more money on a larger query population, and had fewer but more comprehensive and “reliable” polls, their credibility and value would return. But several commenters here are more expert about statistics and polling than I am.
Polls?
Who needs polls?
Democrats can’t even understand why all those garbage people ditched ‘em:
“Dems scratching their heads over how a diverse NJ stronghold flipped for Trump“—
https://nypost.com/2024/11/06/us-news/nj-dems-scratch-their-heads-of-trump-win-in-passaic-county/
@ Niketas > “I hope that the people who do polls can take a break for a few years while they try to figure out what they need to do to.”
So does Jon Stewart, expressed a little more profanely.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tv/article-14047335/Jon-Stewart-urges-election-viewers-continue-fight-slams-pundits.html
Jon Stewart rips into pollsters who got it so wrong: ‘I don’t ever want to hear from you again!’
Daily Mail blew their own horn about being the only correct predictor of Trump’s victory, although they did not foresee its magnitude.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14049725/poll-polling-trump-harris-james-johnson.html
How the Daily Mail predicted Trump’s historic win…. while almost every other poll got it wrong. Here’s the ‘secret ingredient’ they missed
@ sdferr > “Obama set in train a series of events that would see the complete destruction of his entire corrupt political project. If only he’d known…”
I watched the video and remembered thinking at the time that the first “birther” jokes were fair game, but he should have stopped with those.
(And doesn’t he look young, and so smooth and so hip/cool/whatever.)
Aggie puts the date differently, but gets the outcome correct > “On May 1st, 2016, the White House Correspondent’s dinner was held. There, when it came time to give his speech, rather than roast members of the Press and Media, which is the standard exchange of the various speeches that are given, President Obama instead decided to humiliate Donald Trump … So I contend that much of this entire 8-year period has been a dueling dance between Trump and Obama, with Obama’s third term there in the middle, and has now concluded with Obama being completely vanquished by Trump’s determination and mettle. There will be no fourth term-by-proxy for Obama.”
Time had a retrospective in 2017 that gives the correct date, and has a transcript of Obama’s remarks.
https://time.com/4756751/donald-trump-white-house-correspondents-dinner/
Until listening to the video today, I had forgotten how readily the audience joined in the laughter, and that, as Time noted, the jabs at Trump were continued by other speakers.
No wonder he declared war on the Democrat elites.
Although he denied that the 2011 mocking experience was the reason, it may have opened his eyes to what the people who had been his “friends” really thought, about him and about the country he loves.
@ BenDavid > “a liberal Western anti-woke manifesto.”
That was magnificent, not just Jeff’s “50 reasons he’s not voting for Trump” but rather for the things Trump stands for and against, but also for the Manifesto that follows the list, centered on this declaration:
That manifesto against everything that the Wokerati tell us we must, or must not, do, was prefaced by these words of wisdom that should be engraved in stone in every courthouse in the country.
@ John+Guilfoyle > “whether it’s your custom or not, let’s pray that POTUS Trump stays upright and healthy until the 2029 peaceful transfer of power.”
It is my custom, and I have been following it for many days, especially since the assassination attempts.
Today 11/5) I extended my prayers to VP-elect Vance, and Swamp Drainer in Chief Musk.
All of them will be targets of the lefty lunatics for the next four years, minimum.
@ Aggie > “I’m betting that the DC mansion will go onto the market pretty soon, as DC will soon become a place of bad odor and unpleasant remembrances for its owner.”
And the same about remembrances OF its owner.
The ineffectiveness of the hectoring lectures Barack and Michelle gave to “their” constituency showed how little the younger (and maybe even older) black voters care about their exalted decrees.
If they aren’t of any use to the Junta that installed Barry in 2008, they will be cold-shouldered until they leave.
@ IrishOtter > “But . . . is America ready for a bearded president?”
We used to have them — as a traditionalist, I say, go for it!
However, there were never many with beards (5), a few with mustaches (4), and mostly clean-shaven. Also a few with wild mutton-chops.
Well, then, time for a change!
https://www.loc.gov/free-to-use/presidential-portraits
“…completely vanquished…”
Not sure. He’s a thug with lots and lots of tricks up his sleeve…and no qualms about using them.
Let’s hope that Trump is actually inaugurated and, as John said, gets through the term safely (and then some)….
once again, all 400 million polls were useless. Yet 4 years from now, theyll be back.
Taking a course in Probability and Statistics taught me a whole lot about confidence intervals.
Mixing confidence intervals with our media is similar to divide by zero.