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Election eve

The New Neo Posted on by

Here’s a thread for the election results.

I’m staying away from coverage for another hour or two, but you can discuss everything here.

UPDATE 11/6/2024 at 12:40 AM:

I’m back. I still have PTSD from late returns in 2020, so I won’t comment on the presidential race. But I think you all know how it’s going so far.

I’ll say a few other things, though, that please me a lot.

Republicans will control the Senate, although it’s still not clear by how much.

Cruz’s race wasn’t even close, after all that blah blah blah from the MSM and the Democrats.

I can’t locate the link where I read the following statistics – and early statistics of this sort often change somewhat anyway – but it appears that Trump has done considerably better than previously with black voters (about 25% of black men), Jewish voters (about 45%), Hispanic voters, and Muslim voters. That’s an interesting mix for a neo-Hitler. And I also read that Harris did 6% worse than Biden did with black women.

It’ll be a while before I go to bed tonight.

Oh, and it looks like George Gascon, the abominable DA of Los Angeles, will be defeated.

And I guess Californians have gotten tired of the rampant shoplifting that has gone on since Prop 47 was passed, because they have voted for Prop 36, which reinstates tougher penalties.

UPDATE 1:50 AM:

Dare I say it? Fox calls it for Trump!

Comments

Election eve — 87 Comments

  1. Dermatologist appt in morning—7:40 AM EST—but may stay up another hour or two with the way ‘Thangs are looking…

  2. @Karmi:may stay up another hour or two

    Remember how that worked out last time…

    Somehow or other Florida counts millions of votes in 45 minutes. Somehow or other, the swingier the state, the more days it takes to count votes.

  4. Flipping between CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC and the Daily Wire. The first three are very non-committal; the team at the Daily Wire, led by Ben Shapiro, are confident Trump is performing very well. Shapiro is listing county by county, demographic by demographic, where Harris is underperforming Biden. Their stance is; likely highest turnout ever in the U.S. and Harris is tracking below Biden = win for Trump.

  7. Hey how’d Iowa turn out? What with that last-minute huge margin for Harris by that pollster who is never ever wrong?

    Everything the media spent a century building they have set on fire in the last 8 years.

  8. Re: Iowa poll

    Ann Selzer, supposedly a reputable pollster, flipped Iowa from Trump+4 to Harris+3. Trump HQ called it literally BS. Likewise some of our commenters.

    Iowa has been called with Trump+14.

    I saw a pathetic interview with Selzer in which she claimed she couldn’t understand what R and D were in some numbers apparently taken from the cross tabs of the poll comparing her weighting and the 2020 results.

    That poll’s weighting showed outrageous favoring of Democrats. The worst was older women set for D+35.

  9. The analysis I’m hearing is that Harris must now take all three blue wall states — WI, MI, PA — and that sweep is not looking good.

    Mark Halperin, a liberal but usually honest commentator, claimed earlier that he didn’t know how the election would turn out, but his bet was that whoever won would sweep all seven swing states.

    If so, at this point Trump wins.

    Polymarket: 93%-7% Trump

  10. From a friend:

    My very very conservative friend from Spokane, Washington just sent me this. She lives in CO now and hates it there.

    “I just read a confession by an Australian man that has only lived here for 6 weeks. He walked into a voting place and they gave him a ballot without checking his id or even asking who he was. He didn’t vote. He was just seeing how easy it would be. If there’s one, how many more are getting them and voting anyway.”

  11. Becoming cautiously optimistic.
    The west coast, of course, is knee jerk Harris. North Carolina and Georgia, are strange. There is a huge military vote in NC, but they probably vote absentee, and the remainder are overwhelmed by the University towns. . Georgia is, of course, driven by Atlanta and suburbs.
    As a 37 year resident of Virginia, before a necessary move to California, it sadden me that the DC suburbs can over whelm a basically Republican state.

    In my family there are smart (after their mother), big hearted, medical professionals who simply would not vote for Trump. Aside from TDS, they really believe in government managed health care and ‘abortion rights’. I don’t know their what their information sources are, but they hate big Pharma, big Oil,etc. My head is bloody from butting against brick walls.

  12. According to PJ Media, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina have been called for Trump.

    Polymarket: 97%-3% Trump.

    Looking very good. We may not have to worry about overtime.

    If so, what can they do now?

    Declare martial law?

  13. I want to make sure I’m not insane: look at the NYT front page electoral map. Nevada is the only state that has this disclaimer for not projecting results:

    “Counting usually takes days, but new technology and rules could speed up reporting. Postmarked ballots are allowed to arrive up to four days after the election, on Nov. 9”

    Counting usually takes days. Remember all those days in the past centuries that it took days.

  14. @huxley:If so, what can they do now?

    Dump hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots in the middle of the night…. who knows? Their campaign is saying it’s not over until tomorrow… PA won’t be called tonight, apparently.

  15. Should they actually lose, they’re still in power till mid-January.

    They can always decide to ransack the place—in the interests of “the American People” and “Our Democracy”(TM).
    And/or let the wide-open border open still wider. And/or increase the National debt to even giddier heights. Ditto with inflation.

    (Two and a half months of pure, “joyful” destruction can cause a fair amount of “joyful” damage. Besides, those voters who “did this” to them MUST be punished—“Biden”’s Rule, as it were—especially the bigger names amongst the anti-American, anti-women, National Socialist gangsters…
    AAAND Bibi will simply have to go; to be sure, if they’re feeling sufficiently compassionate, they might allow the State of Israel to survive, or at least give lip-service to the idea…but that’s a pretty big IF…etc., etc., etc.)

  16. Nice to see people are still awake.

    Sure, there are lots of things they can do, but if the Trump win is big enough there is a future Democrats have to live with, if they want a future, unless they want to go for something like martial law.

  17. @huxley:unless they want to go for something like martial law.

    The truck will pull up at 3am with 100,000 votes out of nowhere, they’ll tell you it was the Cleanest Election Evah, punish any lawyers who argue otherwise, and then brag about it in Time Magazine. Just like last time.

  18. So you say. I don’t think it’s that simple. There are limits.

    Too big to rig is real. It looks to me like we are close.

    This isn’t 2020.

  19. Well, the American people may just have to be saved from themselves.

    (Anything less would be irresponsible and “anti-American”…which is something “Biden” would never allow “himself” to countenance…)

  20. Top four states in population: CA, TX, FL, NY. All votes tallied and reported. 100 million population right there.

    Nevada is #33. Less population than Puerto Rico for hell’s sake. Might take DAYS.

  21. Especially if a whole s#%tload of ‘em don’t even live in Nevada.

    (Have to go around scrounging up those suckers…which takes a fair amount of time. Anything less would be “denying them the vote”, doncha know…)

    E.g.:
    “It’s 11pm. Why are boxes of ballots still arriving to Detroit’s Bureau of Elections via cars with California plates?”
    https://instapundit.com/682547/

    Looks like “things” are slipping into over-drive…(or should that be “warp speed”…?)

  22. Been bouncing around the channels. If you really want to hear what you want to hear, head over to Bloomberg TV where they’ve pretty much moved on and are talking of Trump and a Republican sweep.

  23. TX Senate race was never a thing. Beto stinks but his campaign was great about stating “here is an alternate to Ted Cruz.” Allred is a people pleasing nice guy and had no chance.

  24. NYT also won’t completely call Maine, they really want that one EV.

    (ME-2 is going red)

  25. Polymarket: 99%-1% Trump

    Fox just called Pennsylvania with 90% reported: 51.2%-47.8% Trump.

    That’s all she wrote.

  26. Neo I’m sorry I’m making your comments section my notepad but the NYT description of the AZ vote has just turned to:

    “Most voters cast ballots by mail, and counting typically takes days. Officials in Maricopa County said full tabulation could take 10 to 13 days.”

  27. Trump wins! The biggest political comeback in history. I couldn’t sleep waiting for the results now I can’t sleep because I want to drink this moment in.

  28. And—for your viewing pleasure—the highly-coveted Middle-Finger-On-The-Pulse Award goes to….

    MSNBC’s Joy Reid proclaimed that Vice President Kamala Harris ran a “flawless” campaign minutes — despite the Democratic nominee trailing behind former President Donald Trump in all seven swing states…

    …She repeatedly blamed white women for the lackluster results.

    (Note that it is widely suspected that Harris’s highly effective “Joy” campaign was inspired by the lovable, experienced and widely-respected TV journalist….)

  29. Trump wins! The biggest political comeback in history…. I want to drink this moment in.

    Gregory Harper:

    Indeed.

    I’m having a shot of Calvados, the French brandy Chief Inspector Maigret prefers.

    I can’t quite describe how it differs from regular brandy. A hint of pine sap?

  32. This just in:
    https://pjmedia.com/paula-bolyard/2024/11/06/presidential-race-called-n4933894

    BREAKING: Trump Clinches With 270 Electoral Votes!
    Paula Bolyard | 1:27 AM on November 06, 2024
    Decision Desk HQ projects that Donald will be the next president of the United States. As of publishing time, Trump has 65 million votes to Harris’s 60 million.

    This is their website, but they are NOT affiliated with any government election office. I hope they did the math correctly.
    There are maps of the results.
    https://decisiondeskhq.com/

  33. huxley:

    You’re a bit more sophisticated in your beverage of choice. I’m going with vodka and grapefruit.

  36. Forget Decision Desk HQ.
    The election isn’t finally over until the betting markets pay out.

  38. Ed Driscoll at Instapundit asks, “…How will those states who chose to be part of the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact award their Electoral College votes?”

    Cue Emily Litella.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjYoNL4g5Vg

    However, to date, the PVC only has “77% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force” so it’s not going to be an issue this year.
    The scare might cause any remaining states to back off.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

  44. Those witches didn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell….

    “Ben Shapiro: Turning point of election was when Trump visited Rebbe’s grave;
    “American conservative political commentator says that the turning point of the election was when he accompanied former President Trump at the grave of the Lubavitch Rebbe.”—
    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/398695

  45. Hello everyone, I’m a conservative living abroad in Brazil, and I’ve had many curious questions posed to me about the election. Most of them – are people who asked about the chances of Harris losing. Many Brazilians (very sociable) have approached me and stated quite bluntly- “Trump is better for Brazil, our right wing will be reinvigorated with his victory”. This is not just about the salvaging of America from anarcho-communists, his victory will breath life into national/conservative movements across the world. The conservatives here are taking courage from his example.

  49. Harris is quiet.
    Too quiet.

    (Someone has to say it.)
    – – – – – – –
    Want to thank AF for that extraordinary Tom Klingenstein link.
    Here’s another incredibly important one, from Lee Smith, that I saw along the way, in fact it’s what prompted my initial remark…since Obama PLAYS FOR KEEPS.
    “Obama Is Still Waging War on Trump“—
    https://tomklingenstein.com/obama-is-still-waging-war-on-trump/

    One of the fundamental messages to be gleaned from this link is just how essential Elon Musk (and his acquisition of Twitter, but not only) has been in the current stalwart attempt to help save the Republic.

  50. ”NBCNews = 266, ABCNews = 266”

    Watching ABC News now. They’re saying 266 electoral votes, but that’s without Alaska. Can’t imagine Alaska going blue while Pennsylvania goes red. That alone gets Trump to a 269-269 tie, which would send it to the House. Then Maine-2 could make it a clean 270.

    And if Fox’s call for Wisconsin holds true, it gets more comfortable. The only way Kamala wins it is to reverse Pennsylvania after it’s been called by everybody. That would tear the country apart. Not saying the Democrats won’t do it, but it’s looking good for the boys in red.

  51. I’m getting worried! Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin appear to have stopped counting. Here come the fake ballots.

  54. In 2020 I stayed up late, this year I’m hardly watching, had a beer and a fine night of sleep after praying for more folks to focus more on family love. Now awake in the morning, Slovak TV is showing Trump’s acceptance speak. Barron Trump the tallest on stage. JD Vance with a pale purple tie.

    I hope he avoids appeasement/ loss to Putin in Ukraine; I think I like all his other public positions that have been emphasized.

    Trump looks a lot better with more natural looking gray hair ( more like mine for 20 years). But he keeps talking & talking, at least coherently, if not with much significant to say.

    Happy and Hopeful for America!

  55. MEO on November 6, 2024 at 3:11 am said:
    I’m getting worried! Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin appear to have stopped counting. Here come the fake ballots.
    ____________________________________________

    MEO: If it’s an easy thing to grab, I’d appreciate a link to the news of which states have stopped counting ballots. Thanks.

    I took a nap. Woke up. Stayed sober. Avoided breathless projections.

    My favorite site to watch the count has been “Real Clear Politics.”

    Here’s a link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/live_results/2024/president/

    So far, Real Clear has the electoral votes as follows:
    Trump/Vance: 270
    Harris/Walz: 226

    They haven’t yet called Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada.

    They’ve called Pennsylvania and Georgia for Trump, but both are close. We know that Philadelphia and Atlanta are notorious for finding late Democratic ballots. Fingers crossed.

    So far, I’m most surprised by Michigan, but maybe Detroit’s corruption machine has yet to kick in.

    Anyway, it’s still very close, but Trump is starting to look like Grover Cleveland. I will likely lose my bet and be forced to walk the earth. Oh well, could stand to drop a few pounds.

  56. Cornflour, I am keeping track on RCP. There hasn’t been any change in vote percentages for quite a while.

  57. Managed this night not to look after midnight at what was happening but when did at 3am couldn’t avoid it. So not much sleep but it’s better than a big sports win for your team feeling. It’s more the country has been saved for awhile longer fighting that slow March of Marxism.

  58. https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/2024/General/President/

    Decision Desk has called PA and WI for Trump. 286 EV. He’s leading by ~180k votes in MI and by a lesser margin in AZ. It’s all over folks. Trump won. I didn’t believe it would happen, and certainly not by this margin, but it did.

    The Senate is still pretty interesting. DD has called 51 for the R team with R candidates leading in PA, WI, MI, NV, and MT. Sherrod Brown is out and Jon Tester, Bobby Casey, Jackie Rosen may follow. It could be as high as 56. Let’s hope that it is 56 because 2026 is going to be a tough Senate year for the GOP.

    Also, aside, Kelly Ayote won the governor’s mansion in NH.

    What a night. I’m happy to eat crow. I still have serious doubts about Trump’s ability to govern, but I would be even happier to eat more crow in a few years.

  59. Foreign leaders don’t seem to be waiting. The first three I saw were Macron, Netanyahu, and Zelensky congratulating Trump. That’s a good sign.

  60. Hopefully he’ll do a better *JOB* this time—than he did last time—but they say ‘the tiger cannot change its stripes‘…

  61. Never was a fan of Donald Trump, but I am elated that he beat that cackling idiot!!!
    Trump got 43% of the Jewish vote in New York City Take that antisemites, and thank you Columbia University for your Hitler Youth rallies last Spring! We dodged a huge bullet.

  63. How is it possible that in Wisconsin Harris gained 3% during the night?
    Am I wrong?

  64. It is 0352 here in MT. I like what I am seeing, but don’t trust any of them! I won’t rest until there is a formal announcement. BTW who is supposed to do that announcing–Biden,Harris,Jill,Obama? Kinda hard to tell who is who these days. Pray for US!

  65. Woke up early and read this thread, often in tears of thanksgiving. We seem to have, for now, saved free speech and the structure of our republic.

  66. CNN has also conceded to Trump’s victory.

    mkent: “Foreign leaders don’t seem to be waiting. The first three I saw were Macron, Netanyahu, and Zelensky congratulating Trump. That’s a good sign.“

    No doubt Trump will be talking to important world leaders ASAP — even today or else tomorrow.

    I’m calling out first that Trump will go to Israel to visit embattled Netanyahu. Before the Inauguration. Then…who else? Place yer bets that Trump will quickly fill the void of the DementiaDent!

    I’m counting on it. He’s too able and smart not to renew himself with various leaders, building on his first term as President.

    BREAKING Vladimir Putin has no plans to congratulate Trump, CNN is reporting. The “Ukraine issue will not be ended quickly”, says a Kremlin spokesman.

    Trump’s gonna relish the challenge to turn this around! “Art of The Deal”m man.

  67. Paolo Pagliaro:

    I didn’t follow the exact figures in Wisconsin earlier and so I don’t know for sure, but what usually happens in a case like that is that results from some very heavily-Democrat-leaning city come in overnight and the gap between the candidates narrows. I see, though, that as of now Trump is still projected as the winner in Wisconsin with 99% of the votes already reported. The difference in the vote totals of Trump and Harris as I write this is 1%.

  68. It’s early here in California but the San Joaquin Valley is red, red, red! There will be Republicans flipping Democrat congressional seats. Hispanic vote going Republican is why. Also at this point Orange County seems to be returning to its roots!

  69. I went into an election blackout- didn’t want to know anything till morning after. Went as I expected, Trump victory, likely takeover of House and Senate, and my state Washington went with 4 more years of fascist hell. Trying to decide if I can afford to take out a loan to move somewhere else.

  70. Karmi on November 6, 2024 at 5:23 am said:
    Hopefully he’ll do a better *JOB* this time—than he did last time—but they say ‘the tiger cannot change its stripes‘…

    Hopefully, Trump won’t have a feckless, obstructionist GOP Congress like he did last time.

  71. Alan+Colbo, from fascist WA:
    “Trying to decide if I can afford to take out a loan to move somewhere else.”
    Whew!
    Hello & same here Alan, but from fascist Austin, Texas.
    We had a chance to replace the lefty coward mayor Kirk Watson, AND the Travis county Marxist Soros DA Garza … But nope.
    SMH.
    Just thankful that Trump & Sen.Ted Cruz won!!

  72. Kind of a puzzlement;

    If I am moved, or invited, to discuss the election and underlying issues with opponents of Trump….
    Do I presume they’re stupid enough to actually believe what they claim are important factors; mean tweets, bogus trials, so forth? Would seem unkind.
    But if they are smart enough not to believe those, then they’re lying about them being important because they don’t want to publicly admit what really motivates them.
    Which might be what?
    In pursuit of which they willingly make themselves look stupid.

    Not. Getting. It.

  73. They’re going to do their unhinged best to make it impossible for Trump to govern.

    But then we knew that would be the case.

    In that sense, it really ain’t over.

    One hopes that their actions will finally expose them—to more and more people—for the scum they truly are…however unlikely such a hope might be.

    On the bright side, however:
    “ COVID debate finally flourishing in academia, censored voices sought: ‘Night and day different’”—
    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-debate-finally-flourishing-academia-censored-voices-sought-night

    “Some Election Day irregularities but overall few glitches, lessons learned from 2020”—
    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/all-eyes-polls-election-irregularities-anticipated-occur-election-day

    “Trump’s improbable comeback also engineered D-Exit, a significant exodus from Democrat Party“—
    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trumps-improbable-comeback-also-engineered-d-exit-significant

  74. And it’s Tossers Wild…in the UK, on these, the “Guy Fawkes Day” Elections….
    “Badenoch demands Starmer and Foreign Secretary say SORRY to Trump over jibes”
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14048619/Kemi-Badenoch-demands-Keir-Starmer-Foreign-Secretary-David-Lammy-say-SORRY-Trump-Neo-Nazi-sympathiser-jibes-brutal-PMQs-clashes-accusing-student-politics.html

    + Bonus (No, No Nostradamus):
    “Moment stunned ‘polling Nostradamus’ who was convinced Kamala would win realizes he was wrong”—
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14048461/polling-nostradamus-kamala-harris-prediction-wrong.html

  76. I await those blue states who signed up for electoral votes to go to the national vote leader, to renig on sending their electoral votes to Trump.

    Reps should be ready to call out the hypocrisy: making laws for others that they don’t follow when they don’t want to.

  78. Went to bed it was 217, middle of the night it was 267, got up it was 277. I want MORE!
    It is cold here in CO, front range, Light snow, roads icy. Of course went for Harris. But some Rep wins.
    Huxley – I’m having a shot of Calvados, the French brandy Chief Inspector Maigret prefers.

    Sounds like a good idea. I will have a shot of my Calvados tonight. Have to husband it because what I have I can never replace. Bought it from the Farmer at Brecourt Manor, of Band of Brothers fame. Walked the battlefield during a WWII tour.

  80. Alan+Colbo

    Hopefully, Trump won’t have a feckless, obstructionist GOP Congress like he did last time.

    🙂 Well, he definitely won’t have Mitch McConnell holding his hands this time. Mitch McConnell walked THREE SC nominees through an incredibly difficult process, against an incredibly RADICAL stand by DEMs.

    Trump’s last chance, and he best learn how to get along with people…quickly!

  81. Karmi, keep it up and GMB might just offer you a cabinet position.
    Something along the lines of Sec. of Outta the Box “thinking”…perhaps.

    To all you Calvados (and other) sippers out there…Cheers!

  82. The divine intervention election
    “The Lord did not save Donald Trump to have him finish in second place.” – Don Surber

  83. @Karmi:Mitch McConnell walked THREE SC nominees through an incredibly difficult process

    Three times he DIDN’T shaft us. He spent most of the last eight years shoveling money at Dems, money they used to nearly win this election.

  84. @Tom Grey:I await those blue states who signed up for electoral votes to go to the national vote leader

    The compact does not take legal effect until 270 votes’ worth of states sign up, and that has not yet happened, so none of these states will do that. I see a lot of people on the Right repeating this meme…

  85. Yeah, Niketas, it’s not clearly legal even then, to the point of withstanding any state choosing to NOT do it after all the conditions.

    Part of the point is to show it’s a dumb idea, part to show that Dems like laws which they think will hurt Reps, but won’t follow those laws when it hurts Dems.

    Watch how the “End the Filibuster” Dems get really quiet; as well as the “Expand the SC” group.

    But it’s a bit of a gloat, too. ‘Cause I is a human.

  86. Hee hee hee. Here in Germany, the “traffic light” coalition (composed of our analogue of the Democrats, color-coded red plus our classical liberal party in yellow and the Green party) had been having major issues. The US election tipped it over the edge, because with Trump, there is less possibility of always hiding behind big brother. The coalition just broke up, new elections are likely for March. Interesting times!

  87. The election uncertainty & frequent breakup of frequent coalition govt is seldom noted by US fans of multi-party parliamentary systems.
    Like I was when in the US, a Libertarian fan of parliamentary systems.
    But like Italy, Israel, and my home in Slovakia, govt coalition breakups are worse than the (unique?) US two-party system with big competing factions in each major party.

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