Election eve
Here’s a thread for the election results.
I’m staying away from coverage for another hour or two, but you can discuss everything here.
The New Neo
A blog about political change, among other things
Here’s a thread for the election results.
I’m staying away from coverage for another hour or two, but you can discuss everything here.
Dermatologist appt in morning—7:40 AM EST—but may stay up another hour or two with the way ‘Thangs are looking…
@Karmi:may stay up another hour or two
Remember how that worked out last time…
Somehow or other Florida counts millions of votes in 45 minutes. Somehow or other, the swingier the state, the more days it takes to count votes.
Niketas Choniates
🙂 I can’t remember last time I stayed up – but this looks like something may break, so will stay at least another 45 minutes…
https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2024/
Ted Cruz made it…great!
Flipping between CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC and the Daily Wire. The first three are very non-committal; the team at the Daily Wire, led by Ben Shapiro, are confident Trump is performing very well. Shapiro is listing county by county, demographic by demographic, where Harris is underperforming Biden. Their stance is; likely highest turnout ever in the U.S. and Harris is tracking below Biden = win for Trump.
Neo, you might want to check this real time NY Times link which, at 10:15pm, has Trump with a 79% chance of winning.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-president.html
Shapiro quoted the NYT (I believe), exit polling shows Jewish vote for Trump in New York is ~44%.
Hey how’d Iowa turn out? What with that last-minute huge margin for Harris by that pollster who is never ever wrong?
Everything the media spent a century building they have set on fire in the last 8 years.
Re: Iowa poll
Ann Selzer, supposedly a reputable pollster, flipped Iowa from Trump+4 to Harris+3. Trump HQ called it literally BS. Likewise some of our commenters.
Iowa has been called with Trump+14.
I saw a pathetic interview with Selzer in which she claimed she couldn’t understand what R and D were in some numbers apparently taken from the cross tabs of the poll comparing her weighting and the 2020 results.
That poll’s weighting showed outrageous favoring of Democrats. The worst was older women set for D+35.
The analysis I’m hearing is that Harris must now take all three blue wall states — WI, MI, PA — and that sweep is not looking good.
Mark Halperin, a liberal but usually honest commentator, claimed earlier that he didn’t know how the election would turn out, but his bet was that whoever won would sweep all seven swing states.
If so, at this point Trump wins.
Polymarket: 93%-7% Trump