Home » Open thread 11/4/2024

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Open thread 11/4/2024 — 41 Comments

  1. My border collies tilt their heads when I’m giving them instructions for performing a task. I speak in a certain tone of voice that indicates that I’m giving instructions and they respond accordingly. They’re trying very hard to understand what you’re saying and what you want. They’re very task-oriented. They have — and must have, for the work they do with sheep — advanced problem solving capabilities. You send them out to fetch a flock of sheep to you and they might go behind a hill to do it — out of your line of sight, beyond your ability to issue commands, where they have to think and make their own decisions as to what they must do to control a flighty group of sheep.

    I was out just yesterday with my border collie, training with her on sheep. Specifically I was teaching her to “walk up” on the sheep without spooking them, a necessary skill for driving a flock from point A to point B. I would speak with her in my certain tone of voice and she would tilt her head. Then we would perform a task. At first of course she doesn’t quite get it. So we do it over and over — herding, then talking/communicating. Gradually she comes to understand what I’m telling her: first she learns the meaning of individual words, then she learns the meaning of entire sentences. Head-tilting during our “conversations” until she “gets it.”

    At the end of yesterday’s training session she was starting to get it. She will get it eventually, sooner rather than later. Then she’ll perfect her skills.

    Truly amazing dogs.

  2. Nice.

    https://archive.md/hYnPu

    Milei Vows Purge of ‘Traitors’ After Argentina’s UN Vote on Cuba

    Libertarian president has already fired his foreign minister
    ‘Woke’ diplomats ‘in love’ with bureaucracy now in his sights

    See how easy this is?

  3. Sabine went way out of her lane last week when she examined whether the US is a democracy or not. First she finds textbook definitions of democracy and republics, and of course notes that the US doesn’t fit such rigid definitions. She then goes on to criticize the US 2 party system and notes how the multi-party systems of the UK and Germany lead to more “proportional” representation; which she thinks is good. She also totally misses the point of the Electoral College and thinks it devalues the vote of the individual. And then wonders why a 200+ year old system hasn’t been changed. Funny how a European totally misses the point of our country being a set of united states and how the system is designed to protect the smaller states from being overwhelmed by the larger states, and how it also tires to protect the 49% from the dictatorship of the 51%. Many of the comments rightfully took her to task.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVqjH6MaqRY&t=573s

  4. Sabine’s confusion doesn’t surprise me. I’d say continental Europe has always struggled to “get” products of the English Enlightenment, like the U.S. Constitution.

  5. The EU would do well to adopt the US federal approach, lest it, like perhaps us, begins to fly apart.

  6. @physicsguy:She then goes on to criticize the US 2 party system and notes how the multi-party systems of the UK and Germany lead to more “proportional” representation

    The two-party system has a lot, I think, wrong with it, but in terms of proportional representation it just pushes the coalitions down one level: Congress has essentially two parties, but each party is made up of coalitions, and one of those coalitions has a majority. In the proportional representation systems one party rarely has a majority, so it forms a coalition with other parties, and then they have a majority.

    The problem with being really smart is that sometimes a really smart person thinks something is obvious when they’ve only just started looking at it.

    https://xkcd.com/793/

    You’re trying to predict behavior of (complicated system)? Just model it as (simple object) and then add some secondary terms to account for (complications I just thought of). Easy, right? So why does (your field) need a whole journal, anyway?

    Sabine might benefit from an acquaintance with Gilbert Chesterton and his gate, if she’d be willing to listen to him:

    There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”

    Erecting a gate takes time and work and is not done willy-nilly by crazy or stupid people, so it’s worth understanding why something is the way it is before deciding it’s obviously dumb and isn’t needed.

  7. @Kate:The EU would do well to adopt the US federal approach

    Given that the EU nations are fully sovereign, and can leave, and some are nuclear-armed, I’d say they’re more “Federal” than we are in a lot of ways. What they’re not is responsive to what the people generally might want, and again they are ahead of us there, though we’re not far behind.

  8. EU nations can leave, but there would be huge financial costs for doing so. In practice, Brussels is working hard to make every European place “perfect” in the eyes of bureaucrats in Brussels.

  9. EU nations can leave, but there would be huge financial costs for doing so.
    ==
    Who enumerated that for you?
    ==
    The big problem with leaving is that you have to quietly prepare to replace the currency. That’s messy and could generate a severe recession. Other aspects of departure will generate small welfare losses.

  10. Darn! And here I was thinking I was getting better at linking to articles.

    Here is the original, but I assume few have a Bloomberg subscription:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-04/milei-vows-purge-of-traitors-after-argentina-s-un-vote-on-cuba?embedded-checkout=true

    Here’s another attempt at the Archive edition:

    https://archive.md/hYnPu

    And if that doesn’t help here’s more of the gist:

    President Javier Milei is promising to conduct a deep purge of Argentina’s diplomatic ranks after the nation voted to condemn the US embargo on Cuba at the United Nations.
    “Every person involved in that decision, I’m ready to fire them all,” Milei said Monday in a televised interview.

    The routine vote cost Diana Mondino her job as foreign minister last week because it flew in the face of the global alignments with the US and Israel that Milei had laid out during last year’s election campaign, he explained.

    “The unforgivable error that Minister Mondino committed the other day cost her the job in 30 minutes,” Milei said.

    His criticism of the foreign ministry didn’t stop there. Some diplomats are “in love with the bureaucracy” and living as parasites, he said. “That’s the woke agenda within the 2030 pact,” he added, referring to a broad set of sustainability goals adopted by the UN a decade ago.

    Those quotes cover pretty much the whole thing.

  11. Sabine in the final analysis doesn’t seem to be that smart, has the proportional selection system, really worked out that well in Germany, I’m talking recently not only in the bad old days, checks and balances seems something alien to her,

    norways seems to doing a similar thing supporting the
    arms embargo against Israel, the only European power,

    now who’s directive was Mondino following if it wasnt Mileis

    Cuba seems to really collapsing into the special period era, even with plenty of
    Venezuelan crude,

  12. Neither “archive.md” link is working for me, but thanks for the excerpt! Can we clone Milei?

  13. IrishOtter: Part of me would love to live with a Border Collie. The other part of me knows that I am too old and lazy to have one.

    I would bore the heck out of it.

    I have managed to find lazy dogs, which works well with me. I don’t drive them nuts, and they aren’t champing at the bit to work. I had a lab who was rejected by a hunter who had adopted her. He said she didn’t have the temperament to be a hunting dog. And she really did not. She had the shortest attention span her entire life. And although a pretty destructive puppy, she was pretty lazy. It was so entertaining. I loved her so much.

    My current dogs love nothing more than sleeping. except maybe food. Though the one dog loves chasing squirrels. I think that is third on the list. My husband says I am ruining them.

  14. @Kate:
    Got news for you. The US is coming apart. The Left Coast is in the Pacific, Walzland should be Canadian, New England is socialist, and the Deep South (including TX and OK)is and has been rising for a generation now, and will make a great nation by itself. Which leaves the center, e.g. Nebraska and Kansas, who are being suborned by Leftists.See Omaha.

  15. Quincy Jones has died.
    91.
    An immense talent.
    A very talented trumpeter in his own rite, his talent for composition and production spanned genres and media.
    Has anyone been responsible for more music sales in the past century?

  16. News too late? Not IMHO, since many people like to vote on Tuesday.

    Ousted CBS reporter drops ‘sickening’ Hunter Biden bombshell on eve of election as laptop-gate returns to haunt Kamala Harris

    Catherine Herridge described the broadcaster’s investigation into the laptop as a ‘missed opportunity for CBS News’, suggesting the broadcaster failed to properly report her findings.

    Herridge said she told company executives the laptop contained material about ‘a million dollar retainer from a Chinese energy firm’ along with Hunter’s business texts and emails in early October 2020.

    But later that month, during a 60 Minutes interview with then-President Trump, correspondent Lesley Stahl said the laptop ‘couldn’t be verified’, according to Herridge. ‘As I watched the broadcast, I felt sick,’ she wrote.

    It comes after two IRS whistleblowers sat down with Herridge for an interview and told her they were banned from investigating Joe Biden amid the government’s probe into his son.

    Now, Herridge is suggesting that CBS failed to properly report on what she found on the laptop.

    Fuking #MeTOO women—and women who wait 40 years to report groping and/or rape. Well, sometimes real Whistleblowers take a few years to show up…here’s the Herridge link:

    How Hunter Biden Laptop Got The CBS News Treatment

  17. Re: Sabine / Criticism of US system

    I would remind Europhiles that the US has had a continuous government system longer than any major European nation.

    San Marino and Monaco are exceptions but not major.

  18. Cicero,
    Did you know the naval weapons depot at the Bangor sub base is three miles long? I wonder how many warheads they have there.

  19. I would remind Europhiles that the US has had a continuous government system longer than any major European nation.
    ==
    Not longer than Britain.
    ==
    We’ve been suffering from escalating institutional dysfunction for ninety years, so I wouldn’t be blowing the old horn about our system.

  20. Time fer another Twofer:

    1) Feeling a little ‘On Edge’? Techno Fog offers a little consolation:

    Election 2024: The Day Before

    ..the Democrats are wrecked with worry.

    We have documented the polling trends for the last couple of months. The movement from September 10, 2024 to the present day, November 1, has Republicans feeling confident. Victory isn’t guaranteed, but it’s safe to say that leadership is cautiously optimistic.

    For what it’s worth, here’s Karoline Leavitt (Trump’s Press Secretary) discussing their internal polling: “Our internal polls have President Trump leading in every single key battleground state.

    You expect a campaign to say that – but that doesn’t mean she’s wrong. In fact, early voting results indicate motivated Republicans and suggest potential problems with Democrat turnout. There’s an enthusiasm gap.

    If even half of Trump’s Admin ‘n Staff are a sharp as Karoline Leavitt is – then I will gladly eat my words about Trump lacking Basic Leadership Ability! Just noticed her yesterday—and she leaves Left-wing reporters speechless…speechless as in afraid to say anything else lest she shreds that before it fully leaves their mouths!!!

    2) Donald Trump hunting for the support of 200K Americans eligible to vote in Israel

    A one-time Democrat living in Israel says he proudly cast his ballot for former President Trump in a swing state — and says he is far from alone.

    “I have been a lifelong Democrat. But that changed in October of last year. Sadly, I feel like the Democratic Party is not the same as it was even five years ago,” said Netanel Worthy, 37, who mailed his vote for Trump in the battleground state of Arizona in September. “I changed my party registration to Republican about six months ago. I know many that are following suit.”

    His vote highlights a state that appears to be solidly behind Donald Trump — the Jewish State.

  21. The Gramscian march to insanity continues apace. The wacky school, Fairhaven College, attached to my alma mater is holding a forum entitled “Let Us Vote!”
    Youth Voting Rights in the USA and Globally in support of lowering the voting age in the US to 16.

    Fairhaven was the alternative college of the day– someplace for the hippies/communists to hang out. Apparently it hasn’t changed in the last 55 years.

  22. Janet Parshall comments, “who says this isn’t a spiritual battle”. I certainly agree.

    Social media forums like Reddit’s WitchesVsPatriarchy reveal the efforts of some witches to cast spells against Trump, such as the popular “freezer spell,” where his name is frozen in water to block his influence. However, several practitioners claim their spells aren’t making an impact, with some saying that Trump seems to have a spiritual “shield” that is somehow protecting him from their magic.

    It May Be A Little Late For A Halloween Story, But Witches Are Struggling To Hex Trump
    https://timesofamerica.news/it-may-be-a-little-late-for-a-halloween-story-but-witches-are-struggling-to-hex-trump/

  23. @ Mike Plaiss > “Here’s another attempt at the Archive edition:”

    You are not the problem.
    The Archive aka Wayback Machine has been under attack since October, and is still digging out from the wreckage.
    That’s why your links don’t always work. I was able to get in, but I’m a paid subscriber.
    Not to Bloomberg, however.
    There isn’t money enough to fund every site I read.

    https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/11/01/the-internet-is-getting-flushed-down-orwells-memory-hole-n4933849

    https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/cyber-security/internet-archive-hacked-and-31-million-user-accounts-leaked-hacking-group-sn-blackmeta-claims-responsibility

  24. @ Barry > “ Here’s the key to reading the tight polls and predicting a Trump win”

    The NYPost article by Henry Olsen was very enlightening.
    He linked to another post by Josh Clinton about polling, which was also very informative.
    https://goodauthority.org/news/election-poll-vote2024-data-pollster-choices-weighting/

    Recommended for those who are really, really interested in the polls and their methodologies.
    I pretty much ignore them — for many of the reasons that Olsen and Clinton elucidate.

    Note about the author of the second post, link “here” in the original:
    “Josh Clinton is the Abby and Jon Winkelried Chair and professor of political science at Vanderbilt University. He is also the co-director of the Vanderbilt Poll and co-director of the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions at Vanderbilt. The data and code for this analysis are available here.”

  25. @ Brian E in re the quote from your linked post:
    “Trump seems to have a spiritual “shield” that is somehow protecting him from their magic.”

    Do tell.

  26. In re Josh Clinton’s post on polling methodology:
    I don’t see anything biased in his article and explanation, but it might be wise to consider the “about” section of his website host:
    “Good Authority is the successor to The Monkey Cage, a site that was founded in 2007 and published at the Washington Post from 2013-2022.”

  27. @ Karmi > “Well, sometimes real Whistleblowers take a few years to show up”

    Sometimes their job depends on NOT showing up.

    However, there seems to be an increase in writers on the left side of the media who are blowing whistles out of disgust at their employers’ bias, now that they can see some protection from Musk at X(Twitter), monetizable Substack sites, and the endorsement embargoes at NYT and WaPo.

    Let’s hope the trend continues.

    A nice post-script on Herridge’s report — which basically reveals that Biden got a massive “in kind” donation from CBS in 2020 (and lots of other times they, and lots of other media, did the same)

    Inside the SCIF

    Late breaking today, I am hearing from many of you about Kamala Harris’ appearance on Saturday Night Live and what an FCC Commissioner called “a clear and blantant effort to evade FCC’s Equal Time rule” for political candidates.

    In a snap poll, the vast majority of you, about 94%, say NBC should offer Donald Trump time on Sunday Night Football, the Today show or Nightly News. Based on the replies, many of you would rather see candidate Trump turn down an NBC offer and see NBC fined by the FCC.

    Here’s what happened next; both appeared in venues most likely to draw their own supporters, and I doubt many Independents were swayed by either one.
    I suspect NBC offered NASCAR rather than the broader-interest shows and Trump’s people took that as at least a free ad; doubtful that the Regime Agency would ever punish NBC with a fine, despite Carr’s censure.

    https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4969297-nbc-airs-video-message-trump-harris-snl/

    The network was broadcasting a NASCAR playoff race, but toward the end of its broadcast, Trump looked into the camera and addressed the crowd in a recorded message.

    The Hill has reached out to NBC News for more information. The Hollywood Reporter noted Trump said a Harris presidency would cause a “depression,” and he encouraged people to vote.

    Harris made her debut on “SNL” less than three days before the election in a short sketch for the episode’s cold open with comedian Maya Rudolph, who plays Harris on the show.

    The Trump campaign immediately criticized Harris for going on the show, saying she was “cosplaying with her elitist friends” as her campaign “spirals down the drain into obscurity.”

    On Sunday, the fallout from the appearance continued. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Commissioner Brendan Carr posted on the social platform X that her appearance was a “clear and blatant” effort to evade the FCC’s ‘equal time’ rule.

    The rule allows rival candidates to ask for equal air time if they want it. Carr said it was designed to avoid “this type of biased and partisan conduct.”

  28. @ Karmi > ” Donald Trump hunting for the support of 200K Americans eligible to vote in Israel”

    I hope they get their ballots in on time.
    And, I wonder if these ex-pats, and others, have been figured into any of the polls that are so widely worried over (like a cat worries a catnip mouse).

  29. @ Karmi: Techno Fog says on 11/04: “We’re just a day away from the 2024 Presidential election ”

    We were actually (this morning) only “a day away” from the original concept of an election day, what with early voting, mail in voting that can continue for days past Tuesday, and counting that will take weeks, I tell ya, weeks!! in some jurisdictions.

    Lots of poll worrying in that post.

    For what it’s worth, here’s Karoline Leavitt (Trump’s Press Secretary) discussing their internal polling: “Our internal polls have President Trump leading in every single key battleground state.”

    How good ARE internal polls, anyway?

    You expect a campaign to say that – but that doesn’t mean she’s wrong. In fact, early voting results indicate motivated Republicans and suggest potential problems with Democrat turnout. There’s an enthusiasm gap.

    Deep dive into the details, especially the really close states.

    Will we see an urban/female turnaround, and has the GOP vote been frontloaded? It’s possible, but it may not be likely. We’ll find out soon enough.

    But if it’s any indication, the Democrats are admitting that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” And that’s probably an understatement.

    One commenter points out another problem with polling methodologies.

    The polls do not take into account the illegal migrants voting

  30. AesopFan, I’m not sure how much power the Witches of Endor have, but they believe that some force is protecting President Trump.
    If you believe that it was a miracle that President Trump wasn’t killed in the Butler assassination attempt, then the next question is why?
    And if he protected Trump in that instance, are there other instances of miracles or are they all just coincidences.
    One that just popped out at me was the horrible comedians attempt to sabotage Trumps election with the awful Puerto Rico joke. The left would have ridden that joke to election day, but what happened? The next day, Biden has a lucid/not lucid moment and saves Trump’s campaign by an even bigger blunder. Just dumb luck or divine intervention?
    But back to the question why did God spare Trump? I’m not sure America is worth saving at the rate we are succumbing to the god of this age. More likely, God has a plan for Israel and America still has a part in it.
    We all need to pray for our President.

  31. Well, it’s the night of Nov.4, 2024, by my schedule.

    The Presidential, election day of 2024, is tomorrow.

    If Kamala Harris wins the election, I’ll be singing this song a lot, (and maybe, so will lots of others):

    To the tune of the song, “Leaning on the Everlasting Arms”-

    Waiting for The US Economy to die!…

    Waiting.

    Waiting.

    Getting low on CASH and ALL SUPPLIES.

    Waiting.

    Waiting.

    Waiting for the US Economy to DIE!

  32. @ Brian E > “More likely, God has a plan for Israel and America still has a part in it.”

    That’s actually a pretty fair statement of one of the main themes in The Book of Mormon.
    What details He has planned were not disclosed.

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