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Open thread 10/14/2024 — 25 Comments

  1. Barry Meislin @ 9:40 AM

    The demonkrat’s “utterly destructive madness,” has not ever prevented the Democrats – legally or otherwise – from prevailing or at least moving their agenda forward.

    From the time of Woodrow Wilson (who made no bones about the Constitution being an archaic document long past its applicability in the modern era) , to FDR to Obama, the liberal progressive / socialist / neo-communist agenda has marched forward. Sometimes in fits and starts, but always, always, always making progress.

    For about 50% of the voters, demonkrats can do no wrong, at least not wrong enough to either not cast a vote for a demonkrat candidate or, heaven forbid, vote for a dumbpublican.

    For Trump to prevail, he will have to win enough votes and by a margin great enough to overcome the (tens? hundreds?) of thousands of phony-baloney ballots for the “CACKLER” that will magically appear – late at night or overnight – in ONLY those 3 to 5 states that, as it turns out, will determine the outcome of the entire election.

    And even if Trump prevails, the deep state will have to deal with him for only 4 years which, IMHO, is nowhere enough time to make real, lasting changes in that corrupt, s**t hole that is Washington, DC. They will stonewall or slow walk any changes that Trump may order and all will be reversed once another demonkrat becomes president; it will be back to business as usual.

    Speaking of Trump; contrast the media’s treatment of his improper comments and/or actions dealing with females (real or imagined), with that of Bill Clinton. The latter actually had been accused of rape (or as Whoopie Goldberg would characterize it, “rape-rape”) by at least one female. This unleashed a full scale media war to destroy the accuser. So much for “believe all women.”

    Meanwhile, Trump’s most notorious accuser, E. Jean Carroll, can’t even remember the YEAR !! in which she was supposedly molested by Trump. The media is totally mum about Carroll. No big deal that during an interview on TV she proclaimed that women find (or should find) rape to be exciting or arousing (or something similar to that.)

    If Trump becomes president, he will not only have to overcome the resistance of the deep state and the media as they try to destroy his presidency, but also – and this is a slam dunk – those dumbpublicans that will emerge from the woodwork to oppose Trump at every turn (for starters, see Mitt Romney).

    Meanwhile, the dems will, as they usually are, all in lockstep obeying the commands of their politburo.

    Anyway, any democrat party “self destructive” behaviour is only temporary and of no consequence in the long run.

  2. I have a bad feeling this morning. Over the weekend, and in articles this morning many saying that with the polls, Trump looks to be in great position. Ack! Polls! My discomfort comes from 2022 where at this time the Red tsunami was assured, turned into a puddle. I’m wondering if the same effect is happening again.

    JohnTyler,

    Despite the article being in SciAm, it’s a good history lesson of the Copenhagen Interpretation. Yes, QM goes against what we perceive as “reality”. It seems “reality” is a wavefunction in some sense and needs a “measurement” to get a number out of many probabilities. Starting with Schrodinger’s cat to the EPR proposal (Einstein, Podolsky, Rosen) where they proposed an experiment to actually test the notion of the Copenhagen Interpretation, to Bell putting the math behind the EPR experiment, to finally Aspect, where after the techonolgy caught up, was able to do the experiment. Since, Aspect’s work, many more such experiments have been done; all confirming the CH. As the late physicist, John Wheeler said, “In some strange way, it’s a participatory universe.” We are still left with what is a “measurement”? I fall into the consciousness camp. But then we don’t have a good definition of consciousness. I think the many-worlds idea is bunk. There’s a reason physics used to be call “natural philosophy”.

  3. physicsguy,

    If you want to feel a bit more hopeful listen to The Megyn Kelly Show podcast from October 4, “Inside the GOP and Democratic Ground Game in Pennsylvania.”

    She speaks with Scott Presler who is very involved with the GOP ground game in Pennsylvania. I was impressed. At the very least, Presler shares a lot of statistics and numbers that you’ll find interesting. It’s also an interesting snap shot of America. How to reach the Amish and get them to vote? How to reach hunters who don’t vote? How to reach long haul truck drivers who often miss election day due to being on the road? When Trump does a rally in swing states with early voting they will have buses ready to drive people to the polls at the end of the rally.

    Glenn Beck has been hammering non-voting Christians, many of whom listen to his programming. He’s even had religious leaders on who use scripture to argue that one should do what one can at the ballot box to stop politicians who will legislate child mutilation, eliminate home schooling, etc…

    It’s marginal stuff, but getting a few thousand people to vote in rural counties in PA, MI, OH… can swing the election to the GOP.

  4. New England in the fall is glorious! At this time of year, usually, many thousands of tourists go up to the North Carolina mountains to look at the leaves. This year, everyone is being told please to stay away while they clear the wreckage and find all the missing people. In Asheville, 80% of the famous arts district, which drew so many tourists, is totally destroyed. One hopes rebuilding will give due consideration to flood zones.

  5. Perfect fall day here as well, even northern Illinois can be beautiful this time of year. And since I’m off for Columbus Day I’m out and about on my motorcycle – glorious. Just stopped for lunch.

  6. October was, of course, my favorite month in New England. As perhaps it is in Texas. Hot days but cool nights. With open/shut windows, inside temperature is comfortable without AC. Perfect.

    But even November in New England has its beauties. I recall November walks through the woods after sundown, going home after an afternoon of playing football with friends. (Back then that was every day…) The calmness of the muted colors, enhanced on occasion by ground fog. Robert Frost had something to say about November in New England. What a surprise! 🙂

    My November Guest

    My sorrow, when she’s here with me,
    Thinks these dark days of autumn rain
    Are beautiful as days can be;
    She loves the bare, the withered tree;
    She walks the sodden pasture lane.

    Her pleasure will not let me stay.
    She talks and I am fain to list:
    She’s glad the birds are gone away,
    She’s glad her simple worsted grey
    Is silver now with clinging mist.

    The desolate, deserted trees,
    The faded earth, the heavy sky,
    The beauties she so truly sees,
    She thinks I have no eye for these,
    And vexes me for reason why.

    Not yesterday I learned to know
    The love of bare November days
    Before the coming of the snow,
    But it were vain to tell her so,
    And they are better for her praise.

  7. @JohnTyler:reality may not be the reality that we all think.

    It’s not really news though. I remember reading Bell’s paper when I was an undergraduate, about thirty years ago, when it was already over thirty years old, and being amused by the “Bertlmann’s socks” illustration in his 1980 address “Bertlmann’s socks and the nature of reality”.

    I’m not sure most of the public is aware how old quantum theory is. Older than relativity by just a few years, but not overwhelmingly identified with one person the way relativity is. A little over 120 years old, older than the Ford Model T.

    The philosopher in the street, who has not suffered a course in quantum mechanics, is quite unimpressed by the [Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen] correlations. He can point to many examples of similar correlations in everyday life. The case of Bertlmann’s socks is often cited. Dr. Bertlmann likes to wear two socks of different colours. Which colour he will have on a given foot on a given day is quite unpredictable. But when you see that the first sock is pink you can be already sure that the second sock will not be pink. Observation of the first, and experience with Bertlmann, gives the immediate information about the second. There is no accounting for tastes, but apart from that there is no mystery here. And is this [Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen] business just the same?

    Of course he goes on to explain why it isn’t, and how to set up an experiment that demonstrates it to be different.

  8. New England in October is very nice. But after 40 years there, I started dreading October. After about 15 years I looked at the leaves and the falling temps as the harbinger of that long, dark winter; starting as early as Halloween. We had a Halloween snow storm that knocked power out for 5 days….miserable. I had already closed the pool on Labor day, and by the end of October there would be an occasional skim of ice beneath the cover. By mid December the ice was about 6″ and by the end of January about a foot of ice (above ground pool, but from friends their inground wasn’t much different).

    Growing up in Denver I thought winter isn’t so bad: generally low 50s, and then a storm comes through, dumps about 2 ft of snow, and then a few days later it all melts away as the temps get back to 40s-50s….rinse repeat. Yes there would be an occasional week of near zero, but it never lasted long. And if you wanted real winter, just drive up I70 into the mountains. New England cured me of winter forever.

  9. Karmi’s Musings: Has ‘Media Pendulum’ started a swing back to the Right? Elon Musk did buy Twitter (now X) in late 2022. DEMs have been trying to destroy it and him ever since—and as usual, most REPs sit on their hands and whine about being cheated in the past ‘n being cheated again in the future – ‘if Trump loses again’ (?!?).

    Yes, Soros bought into Radio recently, but will Radio ever be the same without Rush & Neal?

    The joke is on woke CBS News execs as new execs considering ‘blowing the place up’

    CBS News — the once-prestigious “Tiffany Network” built by giants like Edward R. Murrow, Walter Cronkite and Mike Wallace — is the latest media institution to succumb to the bizarre spectacle of full-on wokeness.

    That was proven by a leaked tape of CBS’s fake-news execs idiotic­ally rebuking an actual journalist doing his job.

    “CBS Mornings” anchor Tony Dokoupil got into trouble because he pressed the author of a one-sided, anti-Israel polemic, Ta-Nehisi Coates, about his warped, historically inaccurate views on the Middle East conflict.
    ********
    In the interim, though, David Ellison and pops Larry want CBS News to go back to its roots, people close to them tell me … “They’re thinking about blowing the place up.”

    Go woke, go broke’. Couple of interesting links to go along w/ Larry & David Ellison’s planned purchased of CBS and parent Paramount:

    Oracle billionaire Larry Ellison will control Paramount after Skydance deal: filing

    Skydance Media

    One article said the deal was for $28-billion, but that seems to be a misprint – since most say it was for “$8 Billion Investment”.

    People are still cutting the cord, but having a major TV network like CBS—if it is ‘blown up’ and goes “back to its roots” would be a major score for the Right, IMHO.

    physicsguy – maybe the Betting Market can help settle you and bring you better luck ‘n accuracy than that “Red tsunami” did.
    • Polymarket Trump 54.6% v Harris 44.8%
    • RCP Betting Odds Trump 54.1% v Harris 44.9%
    • Election Betting Odds Trump 53.7% v Harris 45.7%
    • PredictIt Trump 54-cents v Harris 50-cents
    • OddsTrader Trump 57.98% & 57.80% v Harris 47.62% & 47.62% (two for Bet365 CA Betting Odds & SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds)

  10. Another changer, the co-host of Young Turks no less:

    Ana Kasparian BLASTS “WOKEISM” – Is she ditching the left?!

    Join Jillian as she explores the surprising reasons behind Ana Kasparian’s move away from the left.

    Ana Kasparian, co-founder of The Young Turks, one of the most popular left-leaning news organizations, recently departed from the left, sending shockwaves through the political landscape and raising questions about her decision.

    In this episode, Ana shares her growing disillusionment with the increasing radicalism and intolerance within extreme left factions. She also addresses deep concerns about identity politics, corporate funding of political parties, the decline of California, and the embracing of endorsements from figures like Dick Cheney.

    Ana’s commitment to intellectual honesty and her desire for constructive dialogue ultimately pushed her away from the community she once embraced. Exposure to alternative perspectives through media appearances with the likes of Ben Shapiro, Dave Rubin, Tomi Lahren and more broadened her understanding of the political spectrum, making it difficult for her to align with any ideology.

    Later in the episode, Ana reveals her “final straw”: the public backlash and attacks she faced from her own party for expressing nuanced views on a highly polarizing issue.

    Ana’s departure has significant implications for the future of progressive politics. Without her voice, the left risks becoming more radicalized and isolated. However, Ana’s decision could also open the door for a more moderate, inclusive, and intellectually honest political approach that values debate and free thought over dogma.

    What do you think of Ana Kasparian’s decision to leave the left? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and don’t miss our latest video on political shifts and ideological evolution!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5FFner3pgo

  11. There should be some evidence of such an extraordinary thesis as one as might have premonitions or perceptions

  12. @ Marisa

    Interesting. Don’t know anything about Young Turk or Ana Kasparian— or Glenn Greenwald, but do recall Glenn Greenwald shifting more to the Right a couple of years are so ago…maybe the ‘Media Pendulum’ has started its swing back.

  13. My idiot SIL says she thinks it’s unfair that SpaceX has no competitors. I asked her if she expects Elon to invent competitors too?!

  14. @Karmi:recall Glenn Greenwald shifting more to the Right

    He’s done no such thing. What he’s done is he’s stopped being acceptable to Team Blue, because he criticizes them from the Left. He’s not the least bit less of a Leftist.

    Example from 2020: No Matter the Liberal Metric Chosen, the Bush/Cheney Administration Was Far Worse Than Trump.

    Those who want to insist that Trump’s evils are unprecedented — such that their own service to or support for prior presidents should not exclude them from the realm of the Patriotic, the Decent and the Noble — should be prepared to explain which acts of Trump’s compete with the destruction of Iraq, or the implementation of a global regime of torture, or the “rendition” kidnappings and CIA black sites and illegal domestic eavesdropping under Bush and Obama, or imprisoning people for decades with no due process, and on and on and on.

    The enemy of our enemy is not necessarily our friend, and the opposite of a stupid position is not necessarily a smart position.

    If we expect anything to get less stupid we have got to stop using tribal affiliation as a substitute for learning about people and their positions.

  15. My discomfort comes from 2022 where at this time the Red tsunami was assured, turned into a puddle.

    –physicsguy

    Off-year elections and presidential elections are different animals. And Trump adds such a huge personal presence. (More than I like frankly, but there it is.)

    Plus Americans have had another two very bad years to experience the Biden-Harris aprpoach to governing.

  16. SpaceX has competitors. They’re Boeing and NASA. Incompetents, in other words. NASA spends more in a month than SpaceX does in a year, mostly to promote DEI in space. Musk expects results, and actually cares about getting them. NASA wants to protect it budget.

  17. Niketas Choniates – what would you call these headlines?

    What happened to Glenn Greenwald? The former trans ally now sides with right wing transphobia

    Right Turn: Glenn Greenwald’s Conservative Shift

    Is Glenn Greenwald the New Master of Right-Wing Media?

    Debunking Glenn Greenwald’s lies about me – “Right wing influencer Glenn Greenwald just posted a bizarre rant..”

    I followed him a little after his ‘Shift Right’ – seemed he had shifted right to get closer to the Center…where news media ‘n such should probably be. Is he still there? I dunno, since haven’t read him recently, but imagine it would be difficult to get back into the ‘Graces‘ of the far left after what he did…

  18. Interesting article in the NYT, which is actually true!
    _________________________________

    The Democratic Party has spent years hoping that demography would equal destiny. As the country became more racially diverse, Democrats imagined that they would become the majority party thanks to support from Asian, Black and Hispanic voters. The politics of America, according to this vision, would start to resemble the liberal politics of California.

    It’s not working out that way. Instead, Americans of color have moved to the right over the past decade.

    The latest New York Times/Siena College poll offers detailed evidence. The poll reached almost 1,500 Black and Hispanic Americans, far more than most surveys do. (Our poll didn’t focus on Asian voters, but they have shifted, too.)

    A key fact is that the rightward drift is concentrated among working-class voters, defined as those without a four-year college degree…

    https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/14/briefing/hispanic-black-americans-election-poll.html
    _________________________________

    It’s curious that the NYT would publish this article, somewhat discouraging to the Dem cause, three weeks before the election.

    I’m seeing this all over the Dem-dominated media.

    (A) Are these media hoping to scare Dem voters into voting?

    (B) Are these media now seeing a strong possibility Kamala will lose and trying to preserve their credibility?

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