Tampa’s vulnerability to Milton
The mayor of Tampa was quite blunt about it:
[Mayor] Castor noted that many Floridians are already leaving the area. For those trying to stay home, she urged them to reconsider.
“They may have done that in others,” Castor said, referring to Floridians riding out previous storms. “There’s never been one like this.”
“Helene was a wake-up call. This is literally catastrophic, and I can say without any dramatization whatsoever: If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you’re going to die,” she continued.
Sometimes hurricanes are overhyped, which creates a “boy who cried wolf” mentality in residents. This time, though, the danger does seem very stark, and what happened with Helene will probably make people pay very serious attention.
Why is Tampa so vulnerable? The answer is rather simple:
The city is especially susceptible to hurricane damage due to its low-lying topography. …
While the city has survived other tropical storms over the years, Hurricane Milton, a category 5 storm which is set to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday, is concerning because Tampa is vulnerable to storm surges due to its shallow waters. Milton’s storm surge is forecasted to raise water levels by eight to 12 feet in Tampa Bay, if peak surge happens during the high tide. …
The last hurricane to directly impact Tampa Bay was the Tarpon Springs Hurricane of 1921. As a Category 3 storm, it caused eight deaths, an 11-foot surge and cost $10 million in damages (worth nearly $180 million today when accounting for inflation).
That seems a lot less serious than what is forecasted for Milton.
The heightened risk is partially a result of topography. The Gulf of Mexico coastline of Florida is shallow with a gentle, sloping shelf. The higher ocean floor acts as a barrier that retains the storm’s outflow of water, forcing the ocean to surge onto shore. That’s the opposite of Florida’s east coast, where the ocean floor drops suddenly a few miles from the coast.
“You can have the same storm, the same intensity, the same everything, but very different surges,” said Klotzbach.
A 2015 report from the Boston-based catastrophe modeling firm Karen Clark and Co. concluded that Tampa Bay is the most vulnerable place in the U.S. to storm surge flooding from a hurricane and stands to lose $175 billion in damage. …
“It’s a huge population. It’s very exposed, very inexperienced and that’s a losing proposition,” Emanuel, who has studied hurricanes for 40 years, said. “I always thought Tampa would be the city to worry about most.”
Considering everything, Tampa has been rather lucky in regard to hurricanes till now.
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Yep, Tampa has been a kind of doughnut hole heretofore, winning the skirting trophy time after time. Not looking good at all this time around.
18Z spaghetti models out. Significant shift south with the northern most spaghetti at Bradenton, and the southern most at Port Charlotte. IF (big IF), they hold this shift, much less surge for Tampa, but bad news for Ft Meyers and Naples still recovering from Ian. Model tracks tend to windshield wiper until close to landfall. Fingers crossed for Tampa, but pray for cities to the south.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#14L
Hey! Knock it off with the calling for hell to come down on my head, thanks! Don’t need! (I keed, I keed, but only halfway)
Believe it was physicsguy who gave out the Mike’s Weather Page (MWP) link. Apparently just a normal dude who knows a lot about hurricanes.
Was thinking today that the Milton may turn out as a wet dud…slow, changing speeds, changing landfall time, etc. News media is definitely hyping it for all it’s worth (as neo suggests – “Sometimes hurricanes are overhyped”). Then – I visited MWP for the “Daily Brew”…Jeez!?
Yes, it may weaken considerable…but, it has also sucked lots of moisture from another weather ‘Thingie, had an eye-wall replacement that can be unpredictable, and around 16:22 he gets into Milton heading into very warm waters—something it hasn’t had so far, and Mike asks “How did it get so strong?”
Anyway, Mike says if a hurricane weakens people complain about the terrible forecast that was made, etc. and basically says better safe than sorry…
Yes Tampa has been lucky with hurricanes, not so lucky with Mayor Lockdown. But really in luck with consultants who could use a little more money right now. Category 5 two days away and on track to be a 2 or 3 when it makes landfall.
IF the eye of this thing goes into Tampa Bay, all the dire forecasts will be proven accurate. If it moves slightly south, bad news for Bradenton and Sarasota and Venice. The weather people would be seriously remiss NOT to issue these warnings, even if Tampa Bay survives yet again.
Check out the pix at Not The Bee, and don’t miss the final tweet.
https://notthebee.com/article/check-out-these-aerial-shots-of-milton-from-orbit-and-an-update-on-what-to-expect-when-the-hurricane-makes-landfall
How good is Florida’s preparation? This good.
“Highways heading north remain packed, as do airports, as people evacuate en masse. Gov. DeSantis has been using law enforcement and convoys of fuel trucks to ensure that traffic continues to move.
…
Meanwhile, workers are moving rapidly to secure vulnerable locations such as the Tampa General Hospital and the Central Florida Zoo.”
Not wanting to discourage anyone in Florida, but this is what FEMA calls “helping.”
https://notthebee.com/article/government-sends-electric-chainsaws-to-community-without-electricity
Sometimes the Bee is scary.
https://babylonbee.com/news/fema-warns-they-dont-have-the-resources-to-block-humanitarian-aid-for-next-hurricane
… Because this is a story that popped up today.
https://redstate.com/jenniferoo/2024/10/08/brian-trascher-of-united-cajun-navy-confirms-blackhawk-the-rotor-wash-incident-at-a-nc-resource-site-n2180276
It’s a good idea to stay open-minded about stories like this, but right now the track record for the administration is not helping reduce suspicion.