Western North Carolina is devastated
If you’re wondering why inland, mountainous western North Carolina was hit so hard by Helene, here’s the explanation:
It’s a beautiful area in which I once spent a month (with Gerard, about fifteen years ago). Driving around in the fall was wonderful because anywhere you went it was picturesque. Asheville was a fun town with plenty of good food, but I was staying to the west of there in the mountains. Now the entire area seems to have been hard hit, with many deaths. The toll is expected to rise.
We all know that, if a Republican had been in the White House, or a Republican was the governor of the state, these two people would be fully blamed by the press. These days, however, does anyone expect anything of Biden? Yes, he was on the beach, and yes, he said he’d been “on the phone” about it for two hours, but does anyone even consider him president anymore? The headline of that AP story I just linked is basically “Trump pounces!”
Kamala Harris says she’s been in touch with authorities. She and Biden are planning a visit (not necessarily together), and Trump is in Georgia with some aid. Seems as though all of them are waiting until things calm down enough in North Carolina to visit, so that they don’t impede rescue operations there. Right now access and communications are terrible in that area.
One of the impressions I get is that, although there was a warning in North Carolina to evacuate low-lying areas, the portion of the state that was hit hardest by the surge was at elevation and therefore I’m assuming everyone was still at home. I see that a state of emergency had been declared for western areas prior to the storm, but it was mostly about preparedness and I see nothing about evacuation. This would make for a much higher death toll.
The photos and videos remind me somewhat of the dreadful tsunami of 2004. The latter disaster struck an enormous area and caused over two hundred thousand deaths in many countries of the world, so its scope was far greater. But both show the tremendous destructive power and force that water can take on.
Slow moving water is scary enough when it is just steadily rising up thru your neighborhood from a swelling river, flooding one neighbor’s home after the next as it steadily climbs the gently sloped street. I have experienced that North of Houston back in 1993. It seems like an unstoppable thing.
But fast moving water must be just absolutely terrible.
The good news from my perspective: the threatening development of another low pressure system just off the Yucatan where Helene came from — present just this morning — has been removed! It’s gone! Poof! Thanks be!
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
DEMs say humans can control Earth’s climate – but it seems that humans can’t even stop a small tsunami or Cat4 hurricane…
Hurricane Katrina deaths: ~1400
Hurricane Helene deaths: ~120 (so far)
Hurricane Katrina damages: ~$270 bil (adjusted for inflation)
Hurricane Helene damages: ~$110 bil (so far)
Helene is worse than I expected.
huxley:
Of course, we only have very early figures for Helene. No doubt those figures will go up considerably.
The damage photos I’ve seen from western NC are incredible. News sources say the NC death toll is at 49, but I think that may rise some. Considering what happened, it seems that many people did move to higher ground based on the flood warnings, but the scope of it was more than anyone realized it would be.
I have decided to send some money to “Wings of Hope,” a group flying in aid, on Glenn Reynolds’ recommendation, and to the Salvation Army in Asheville. I hope this may provide something to desperate people.
Local news says Gov. Cooper is in talks with the federal government to use assets at Fort Liberty (Fort Bragg) to airlift supplies and personnel into Asheville and beyond.
sdferr,
Not necessarily. The models show something forming and then moving east towards central FL next week.
The best source I found over 15 years ago is Mike’s Weather page. (spaghettimodels.com) He also puts up daily video updates on YouTube and FB. If you don’t want to watch him explain, go to his web page, upper left corner are the model runs that you can look at yourself.
NOAA/NHC are usually about a week behind reporting what the models are showing. Mike had Helene on his “radar” a week and half before any notice went out.
It isn’t just water flowing. It’s a slurry of hard-edged objects, mud, trees, parts of structures, lubricated by water. You don’t swim out of one of those.
Going on forty years ago, we had about a foot of rain overnight. Came up to the house, through the front door (was at grade levek) and put three feet of water into the basement. What a mess.
But, where the terrain was irregular, it collected in a couple of streams and washed out at least two bridges carrying two-lane roads.
Appalachia is irregular. And, unless you have a lot of money or are willing to put up with major inconvenience, nobody wants to build up a couple of hundred feet fro the nearest creek on the side of a hill.
Flood plains are popular. They’re flat. Near water. Near the water table if you need to have a well. Good soil, which washed down from the hills. Such transport as uses the creek/river is convenient. It’s just that….
We have moved many times. Our current house is #9. We always check terrain and flood plain maps before buying.
sdferr et.al:
This is the 7-day outlook from the NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
All the weather nerds I follow expect this one to stay pretty disorganized, not the slam-dunk sure bet that Helene was.
Thanks physicsguy and sharksauce, good info
https://x.com/JamesBlairUSA/status/1841240319347872198