IDF enters southern Lebanon; Iran launches missile attack on Israel
So far, the expected Iranian missile attack appears to resemble one back in April in scope and effect, in which the missiles were either successfully destroyed or didn’t cause deaths even though some of them hit. Israel has a robust (but not inexhaustible) defense capability as well as extensive bomb shelters.
But these attacks from Iran are frightening, and the defense is costly to Israel in terms of money. Was this a carefully calibrated and face-saving move by Iran to supposedly not start a major war, which Iran fears it would lose? Is Iran willing to sacrifice Hezbollah to the Israelis, in order to protect itself?
Iran wishes to pose as the reasonable one:
Iran’s mission to the United Nations issued a statement that confirmed the attack on Israel and indicated that its direct assault was over.
“Iran’s legal, rational, and legitimate response to the terrorist acts of the Zionist regime — which involved targeting Iranian nationals and interests and infringing upon the national sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran — has been duly carried out,” the Iranian statement said. Iran supports many proxy groups in the region, and it wasn’t clear whether any of those groups might still launch additional attacks on Israel after the Iranian missile salvo.
Meanwhile, in Israel there was a lethal terrorist attack:
While Iran’s missiles appeared to have claimed no lives, Israeli police said two gunmen opened fire on members of the public on a road in Tel Aviv not long before the rockets were fired. The Associated Press cited police as saying six people were killed in the attack before the two suspects were neutralized.
I see that word “neutralized” a lot these days. It often means “killed,” and I think that’s what happened to today’s attackers.
Meanwhile, the IDF is engaged in southern Lebanon:
Israeli officials have characterized the incursion into southern Lebanon as limited in scope, saying there will be “no long-term occupation.”
Officials have, however, declined to say how deep Israeli troops would venture into the country or how long the operation is expected to last. On Tuesday, the Israeli military called on residents in more than two dozen villages in southern Lebanon to evacuate approximately 30 miles into the country. …
The Israeli military earlier said it was focused on removing “immediate threats” from Lebanese villages along the border, including Hezbollah’s ability to infiltrate northern Israel. Israeli soldiers, including paratroopers and commandos, as well as armored corps troops have been “preparing for limited, localized, targeted operations in southern Lebanon,” the Israeli military said, adding that soldiers have been training for weeks and had gained skills and operational experience in Gaza over many months.
That last bit is of the utmost importance. The IDF is now very used to this sort of operation – which I believe involves clearing and obliterating the tunnels of Hezbollah in particular, much as occurred with the tunnels in Gaza. The IDF is battle-hardened in terms of the sort of operation that will be necessary in southern Lebanon.
Was this a carefully calibrated and face-saving move by Iran to supposedly not start a major war, which Iran fears it would lose? Is Iran willing to sacrifice Hezbollah to the Israelis, in order to protect itself?
I’d guess they’d like the American cash flow to continue, but they have to do something or have no credibility with their subjects and clients, and as long as they don’t do “too much”–as defined by the people behind Biden and Harris–the people behind Biden and Harris are fine with it.
From “Axis of Evil” terror sponsor to this; hell of a couple of decades. I did not have it on my bingo card.
The leadership of Iran might be better off without people like Hezbollah anyway. A pipeline to the pockets of the American taxpayers probably gets them more than rocket attacks on Israel do.
We were in our safe room for the better part of an hour earlier this evening.
As was almost everyone else in our family, including my son who lives in the central area and whose children are not used to hearing sirens.
My parents are too old to get to their safe room so they took folding chairs out to the windowless interior stairwell of their apartment building.
We hear the Iron Dome taking out missiles directed at Ben Gurion airport and the Tel Aviv metro area.
Thank G-d everyone is OK.
I am the shopper in the family, so I put together a box of provisions for our safe room. But my son took all the good stuff with him to reserve duty in the north. So we had crackers but no Nutella…
Ben David:
Glad to hear you are safe.
Yes, they are battle hardened, and they’ve learned to fight in the tunnels. Every war needs a hero, and this guy seems like he’ll do nicely.
https://m.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-819823
Also very glad to hear everyone is ok BenDavid.
G-d bless you and your family, BenDavid!
Read elsewhere that there are a good many miles of tunnels in Hez terrain in Lebanon. Unexpected. Going to take some work.
And there are limits. I recall reading about the WW II house-to-house fighting in WW II. Going through the walls from one to the next would save exposure to enemy fire on the streets. Those houses were usually stone or concrete, very sturdy. But the amount of explosive necessary for the theater to do that was so huge it could not even be produced, much less shipped and forwarded to the units in question.
Which brings up the question; how much explosive will it take to blow up, say, every quarter mile of the tunnels? How long? After clearing Hez out so you can do the work.
Or you find the tunnels, clear out the above-ground area of Hez fighters so the sappers can do their work. BIG shaped charge, then drop a couple of hundred pounds through the hole.
Or do you want to work within the tunnels, from end to end?
Going to be a tough, long job.
There are many Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) buildings and bases across Iran. Imagine the consequences if those hundreds of IRGC buildings and bases went KABOOM!
Ragarding the Hezbollah tunnels, this is in hard rock country. Very difficult to destroy completely. Destroy the entrances and exits.
Difficult to dig too though, fortunately. So I’d expect many fewer than the Gaza complex. Still, it’s a crazy freaking bother.
I hate to make you read Reuters,
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-has-finished-attack-israel-amid-fears-spreading-conflict-2024-10-02/
But more evidence this was just face-saving bullshit.
Mike
That’s supposed to mean, to the left, that if Israel responds, it’s Israel who’s escalating.
Here’s a good post explaining what Iran’s leaders may be pondering while deciding how and when to respond to Israel finally taking the war to Hezbollah, instead of continuing to just play defense.
I have no information on the author, but what he says makes sense.
https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-822406
Iran’s calculated inaction: Why Tehran stands by as Hezbollah falters – opinion
Despite Hezbollah’s critical role as Iran’s regional proxy, Tehran remains hesitant to intervene as Israel cripples the group—economic, political, and strategic factors explain why.
By FARHAD REZAEI
SEPTEMBER 30, 2024