Home » Open thread 9/14/2024

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Open thread 9/14/2024 — 53 Comments

  1. Do a majority of Immigrants—illegal or not—end up voting for Democrats?

    I found this part of a Rasmussen Report interesting:

    • White voters: 49% for Trump, 47% for Harris.
    • Black voters: 33% for Trump; 64% for Harris.
    • Hispanic voters: 58% for Trump; 38% for Harris.
    • Other minorities: 64%, Trump; 30% for Harris.

    Are Whites more unbiased?! 😉

    Are Democrats digging their own graves on the Illegal Immigration issue?

    Am mainly following Betting Sites this year instead of normal polling stuff:

    • PredictIt: Harris – 57 cents. Trump 46 cents.
    Betting Odds (Lott & Stossel) – Harris 52.2%. Trump 46.7%.
    • RCP Betting Average – Harris 50.8. Trump 47.7.
    • Polymarket – Harris 50%. Trump 49%.
    • OddsTrader (Implied Win Probability)– Harris 54.64%. Trump 50%.

  2. Just another open-thread comment about something I read somewhere else.

    At the blog “Marginal Revolution,” Alex Tabarrok has written a long. fascinating essay on the UK’s Orwellian Equality Act 2010. The Act is strikingly Marxist, and replaces supply and demand with judges and labor boards (https://tinyurl.com/mrya3923).

    Is this something we can expect from President Kamala Harris? The near future beckons with a cackle, and we must welcome our Marxist overlords. This isn’t fantasy; it’s happening right now in the UK.

    Tabarrok’s whole essay is well worth reading, but here are a few excerpts:

    “In short, supply and demand have been replaced by judges and labor boards with the authority to deem which jobs are “equal” and therefore should be paid equally. And the labor boards do so based on vague and subjective considerations that do not change with changing circumstances. Imagine replacing “jobs” with “condiments” and having judges decide whether ketchup and mustard should be priced equally because they are similar, broadly comparable, or rated equivalent in terms of the effort, skill, and decision-making that went into their production.”

    “Labor boards will inevitably lead to the misallocation of labor, diminishing both wealth and fairness. Severe misallocation may lead to further intervention, in the worst scenario, even to the allocation of labor by fiat. Politicization breeds division, rent-seeking, and a stagnant, unpleasant society.”

    “I despair when I consider that these fundamental ideas are the foundation of our liberal, global, and prosperous civilization. On economics, as on free speech, the UK has entered the great forgetting.”

  3. it was introduced by Harriet Harman, a Labour MP, who is now Baroness, but apparently 14 years of Tory rule did nothing to reverse it,

    its an imposition of EU rules, who actually won the wars, that Britain has fought for hundreds of years, it builds on previous legislation, thre was one court challenge in 2020, but the judges said surprise it wasn’t ripe or something,

  4. she gets away with bald faced lies,

    https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1834724210834653279

    getting back around to miss swift, who apparently doesn’t care she’s empowering the ones who wanted to hang or stone her non binary friends, as that fellow in vienna wanted to, if she wants to make an adult decision, she has to weigh the consequences,

    if the Dems thought they would be importing their opposition, they wouldn’t be doing it,
    but we see in the UK France Germany how this works, yes Merkel was pretty worthless on that count

  5. Miguel’s link shows deployed US troops watching Kamala claim they are not in harm’s way.

    Karmi, yes, I think white Americans (who are not Democrats) are in general less racially biased than some minority groups.

  6. that is not a neutral finding, they are betting on our destruction, harris or whoever pulls her stringing is an evil conniving self absorbed creature who is the enemy of all free people, like siding with the Vandals,

    some people are aware, but certainly there is a cohort who don’t care what they are doing, and yes the Russian economy has prospered while ours is stagnating in spite of the sanctions, because of the chokehold we have put on our resources development because of the Debt we have created to develop a huge scam with clean energy,

    its funny how he was hobbled as was Khameneiwhen Energy resources were fully utilized, when there was a degree of public safety, but thats why there had to be the Floyd subterfuge for the insurgency of the so called Antifa and BLM

  7. Decades ago, my family was attending an opera at the Met in Lincoln Center and we had good seats. During an intermission my mother heard this distinctive voice. She turned around and Lauren Bacall was sitting in the row behind us.

  8. oops

    https://x.com/BreitbartLondon/status/1834558897694408985

    yes i’ve seen many of the classic noirs on TCM, among other places, Sunset Indemnity, all the Chandler ones, (indemnity was a chandler script, on a cain template, Out of the Past most recently, that I noted at some point was ‘covered’ by against all odds, with Woods and Bridges, doing the Douglas and Mitchum role,

    LA Confidential, captured some of the ethos,
    others have noted the Police Captain in that one, has echoes of Orson Welles in Touch of Evil, but there is too much dark in the modern remakes like one some years ago, with Brolin,

  9. Trump may say what he likes, but in terms of polls, the debate wasn’t good for him
    ________________________________________

    Harris topped Trump among all voters, independents and Democrats; with even 14% of Republicans saying that she won the debate.

    Perhaps, most significantly, half of independent voters believe Harris won the debate, according to a Reuters’ poll…

    The debate certainly knocked some confidence from Republicans concerning their candidate.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-harris-polls-latest-tracker-debate-election-b2612602.html
    ________________________________________

    That’s my sense of it now. We’ll see how the polls hold up in the next week.

    I suspect Trump’s pet-eating comment will become the Big Soundbite from the debate. Trump had better get smarter.

  10. huxley:

    Polls say Harris won the debate, but the polls I’ve seen (and I’m sure there are exceptions, as there always are) say there was either no change in answers about who respondents will be voting for, or Trump gained about a point. In other words, many people thought Harris won the debate in the sense of scoring rhetorical points, but don’t want to vote for her.

  11. Swapping out Biden for Kamala wasn’t about shifting the issues, but the personalities. Despite her disavowals of most of her past views, like banning cars, health insurance and plastic straws, and the random adoption of some Trump economic proposals, the Democrat presidential ticket is still fundamentally the same on the issues as it was in May 2024. All that’s new is the vibe.

    In polls, men are statistically more likely to vote on issues, and women on personal characteristics. The Kamala coup offers new personal characters, but not issues.

    https://www.frontpagemag.com/why-men-hate-kamala/

  12. Polls say Harris won the debate, but the polls I’ve seen (and I’m sure there are exceptions, as there always are) say there was either no change in answers about who respondents will be voting for, or Trump gained about a point.

    neo:

    I saw some of those polls too and they seemed sparse and preliminary. If one looks at the current RCP average, it sure looks like Trump was closing the gap before the debate, then started losing ground from the day of the debate on:
    __________________________________

    09/10 Harris 48.4% Trump 47.3% Harris +1.1%
    09/13 Harris 48.7% Trump 46.9% Harris +1.8%

    https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
    __________________________________

    I am not comforted.

    The debate has worn poorly with me. Yes, I know that the moderators were quite unfair, maybe they provided Harris the questions beforehand and maybe illegals really are eating pets. Still, I think Trump could have won that debate by avoiding dodgy soundbites and pressing Harris for more substantive responses.

    He has followed up with more Trumpery — declaring that he won the debate and Harris was weaker for asking for another debate. Then a whole speech about how angry he is. To me this sounds like loser talk.

    The debate was the best thing that’s happened for Harris since the DNC. Trump seems to have little self-control, so of course she wants to go to that well again and cement her gains.

  13. I found it a very insulting exercise, that only shows contempt for the concerns of the people, if you care about the crime the inflation the wars on every side, well who cares, we got vibes happening,

  14. if you care about the crime the inflation the wars on every side…

    Then you might also care about Trump not sticking hard with the issues sensibly and challenging Harris directly, instead of babbling about pet-eating, he is Da Winner! and prize fighters.

  15. Anyone suppose illicit tunnel digging beneath an international border could be construed as an act of hostility? A casus belli, even?

  16. [Bacall] got really lonely after Bogie.

    Abraxas:

    That’s what I’ve read.

    I used to wonder why her career declined. She was no longer Bogart-Bacall and Hollywood was changing.

    She had an affair with Frank Sinatra, later a marriage and a child with Jason Robards. She already had two children from Bogart. She focused on her family for much of that time.

    After Bogie I only noticed her playing side roles in “Harper” and “Murder on the Orient Express.”

  17. I didn’t know Bacall lived in the Dakota. According to Chat:
    _________________________________

    Lauren Bacall lived at the Dakota, the iconic apartment building in New York City, for many years, starting in 1961. She continued to live there for decades until her death in 2014. Bacall reportedly bought her nine-room apartment for around $48,000, a relatively modest price at the time, and it became her home for more than 50 years.
    _________________________________

    That means Bacall was a neighbor while John and Yoko lived in the Dakota. However, there is no information that they ever met beyond occasional happenstance.

  18. She appeared in 28 feature films and five Broadway productions after 1957. She was the star of the five Broadway productions and a lead performer in most of the films.
    ==
    (She also appeared as an actress on television now and again and did voice over work. In addition, she made over 200 appearances in documentaries, on talk shows, on award shows &c).
    ==
    I think we can gather from the living arrangements that she had an ample private income by the time she was age 37.

  19. Viola playing astronaut-ette plays “Rey’s Theme” from outer space in collaboration with musicians back on earth. Pretty danged cool:

    HARMONY OF RESILIENCE: Recorded in space and sent to Earth via @SpaceX’s @Starlink constellation, Polaris Dawn crewmember and violinist @Gillis_SarahE invites you to enjoy this music moment in support of @StJude & @ElSistemaUSA

    https://x.com/PolarisProgram/status/1834557770374296010

    Video at link.

  20. America’s recent weak three Presidents (Obama, Trump & Biden) have put Israel in an almost impossible position:

    Houthis say fired new hypersonic missile at Tel Aviv target – ‘Missile traveled a distance of 2,040 km (1,267 miles) in 11.5 minutes … “The operation was carried out using a new hypersonic ballistic missile that successfully reached its target. The enemy’s defense systems failed to intercept it.”

    IDF ordered to prepare for military campaign in Lebanon: ‘Situation in north cannot continue; we must return residents home’

    Russia gave Iran nuclear bomb secrets in return for missiles to strike Ukraine, West fears – Yeah, Iran hasn’t been sending ‘Stuff’ & drones & missiles to Russia for chump change.

    Why America hasn’t brought Iran’s entire military to its knees is beyond me!?! Wiping out Iran’s nuclear capabilities may have been too difficult, but wiping their Defense Industrial Base (DIB) – or at least crippling it should’ve been Trump’s 2nd objective after the military. Obama & Biden weren’t going to do it. No Boots on the ground (other than Special Ops) needed.

  21. sdferr, thanks for the link to Polaris music. Amazing!

    I’m not a big fan of Tesla vehicles for most circumstances, but Elon Musk’s achievements with SpaceX and Starlink are admirable and world-changing. His liberation of X (Twitter) from authoritarian control is also a major advance. I only hope he can hang on with that against dictators around the world and in our country.

  22. RE: Lue Elizondo–Roswell was, indeed, a UFO crash, and NHI biological material was recovered. This, it seems to me, is a form of gradual Disclosure.

    In conjunction with the release of his new book, “Imminent,” Lou Elizondo has reemerged and again started to give interviews.

    Elizondo wrote in “Imminent” that a UFO did, indeed, crash at Roswell in 1947. That, in fact, two UFOs crashed–one UFO was able to take off again, and one was not.

    It might be noted that in 1947, what was then an Army Air Force base, located quite near Roswell, was the home base of the bombers which had dropped the atomic bombs on Japan, and that’s where we had stationed what were the only couple of bombers we had, at that time, which were capable of delivering nuclear weapons. (I’d imagine that whatever nuclear weapons we then possessed were also there as well.)

    So, one would think that this this area would have been of prime interest for any NHIs.

    A few days ago, in an interview with Australian investigative journalist Ross Coulthart and Bryce Zabel, Elizondo was asked directly to verify that a UFO had, indeed, crashed in 1947 at Roswell, and he said, unequivocally, that a UFO crash had happened, and that four biological samples were also recovered, and that the crashed ship, all the debris, and NHI biological material were gathered up by the authorities, and taken away.*

    In the second linked interview, this with Glenn Beck interviewing Elizondo, Elizondo also talks about 1947 crash debris, says that he has held some in his hand and that, as of a couple of years ago, scientists do not know what the material–layered at the atomic level–does.

    Moreover, that while some current nation state might be able to accomplish the very technologically challenging and very expensive job of manufacturing some approximation of such layered material, no one human had anywhere near that capability back in 1947.**

    Elizondo also emphasized that the things he wrote in “Imminent,” and the things he was saying in these interviews were all cleared for him to write and say after one year of intensive review by the Defense Department’s Office of Prepublication and Security Review. (DOPSA).

    Thus, of course, what Elozondo wrote in his book, and has said in these recent interviews, directly contradicts almost 80 years worth of the DOD’s several previous prosaic explanations, trying to explain away the idea that a UFO crashed at Roswell, and that some NHI bodies from that crash were also recovered.

    * See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs4opofUoWI

    ** https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZvIEMqLZfc

  23. America’s recent weak three Presidents (Obama, Trump & Biden) have put Israel in an almost impossible position:

    –Karmi

    One of these is not like the others.

  24. who allowed the Saudis to attack Houthi camps and who took them off the terrorist sanction list, who has given millions of dollars to the proxy army for Hezbollah, re the UK who stood by the stupid Iran deal, I could go on and on, but you get the point,

    where did the Houthis get the missiles from, the dropped sanctions on Iran’s oil reserves

    the iraqi proxy militias did hit Ab Quaiq, but because of our expanded oil drilling it ended up a one day story, now such a hit would crack our economy because we have practically no reserves,

  25. Sunday Open Thread: Russian War in Ukraine – Stuff That Didn’t Work Out:

    Disappointing Systems in Ukraine – From imprecise precision munitions to explosive IFVs – Perun

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWE1h0GA5fk

    00:54 — What Am I Talking About?
    03:08 — Rating This
    05:15 — When Precision – Isn’t
    07:30 — Excalibur
    12:51 — GLSDB
    20:10 — The Paradrop Problem
    32:19 — Speaking Of Attack Helicopters
    35:45 — Attack Helicopter Losses
    41:08 — Polish Figures
    47:04 — What Could It Be Instead?
    54:01 — Not The End For Rotary…
    58:13 — Channel Update

    Yep the GLSDB was a disappointment.

  26. It’s a free country, Karmi, or sort of, for a while, unless Dems take control of the executive and legislative branches next year; so you’re entitled to have your opinions.

  27. Starmer doesn’t intimidate anyone, hes like the groom on the wedding cake, he does despise his countrymen, much more than Putin,
    who actually has a death notice against him, hint not Biden not Obama, although that supposed ringer Samir Merchant seems fake to me, the one the Bureau let roam the country for three months,

  28. remember that multi national anti Houthi task force, well pepperidge farm remembers

    no one is intimidated by starmer or macron or schulz, and they would not be intimidated

  29. All three were/are weak on Iran.

    Translation: All three didn’t launch pre-emptive strikes on Iran defensive facilities.

    That’s a pretty big expectation for any US president and ignores, naturally, all the other differences.

    Obama and Biden have facilitated Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons, freed billions of dollars to Iran, while openly opposing Israel and undermining Netanyahu.

    Not Trump.

  30. A contract on him from the Ayatollah, you get my meaning one of these is not like the other,

  31. BREAKING NEWS: Gunman ‘armed with an AK-47’ is shot at by Secret Service while prowling Donald Trump’s golf course in Florida – as the former president played round with billionaire businessman: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13853143/Shots-Trump-National-Golf-Club-Mar-Lago.html

    The Martin County Sheriffs Office has stated that the Suspect involved in the Shooting at Trump International Golf Club in Palm Beach was Arrested while fleeing in an SUV on I-95.“: https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1835410133180125565

  32. Yes, the stakes are very high and stacked against Trump. We haven’t seen the end of the attempts to be rid of the Troublesome Trump.

    Obama and Biden, not so much.

    But, yeah, all three are basically the same.

  33. All the stories I’ve seen are in agreement that Secret Service officer(s) fired at the suspected assassin; what not one of them says is this: that the target of the Secret Service shooter(s) was hit. So I’m going to assume they missed until told otherwise.

  34. Fox News now says the FBI considers this incident an attempted assassination. Two months after the last one. At least no one was hurt this time.

    Great job, Dems, on toning down the rhetoric.

  35. Kate: sources I have read said—well, one said there were 4 fact-checks on Trump, and the other said there were 5. Do you know how many fact-checks were done during that—what was it, 1.5 hour debate?

  36. @ Kate > ” the affidavit is notarized”

    All that means is that the notary saw ID from the person making the affidavit that says he/she is who he/she claims to be.
    It means nothing regarding the content of the affidavit.
    However, a willingness to be identified does lend support to the whistleblower’s credibility.

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