On the Jewish vote in 2024
I’m too busy today to put up Part II of my series on the Israeli hostages; I’ll probably do it tomorrow. There’s a lot to say.
But in the meantime, I happened to see this Caroline Glick piece about the Jewish vote in the US in 2024. That topic seems to occupy a lot of people’s minds, and I’ve written about it before. Over and over I see comments here and elsewhere to the effect of, “And despite everything, the Jews will be voting overwhelmingly for the Democrats, as usual.” It’s sometimes written with sorrow and sometimes with venom, but it’s a standard observation from many people on the right.
I’ve written on the topic before, for example here as well as here, here, and here. Now I want to quote what Caroline Glick said yesterday:
The growth of antisemitic violence in the United States will lead a “significant number” of Jews to vote for Republicans in the upcoming election, Caroline Glick, a former policy adviser for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and currently a senior editor for the Jewish News Syndicate, said Tuesday on Newsmax.
“I think that you’re seeing that already in polls that have come out two or three times over the past several months of Jews in New York, which is the largest Jewish population,” Glick said on “Newsline.”
“You find for the first time that President Trump is getting over 50% of the Jewish vote, which is an earthquake. Those numbers are largely reflected in larger samples that are not specifically about the politics of American Jews.”
Who knows? I guess we’ll see in November – although the only mechanism for that is exit polls, and they are somewhat iffy, especially for small groups like the Jews. I don’t think, for example, that Orthodox Jews – who vote overwhelmingly Republican – are likely to be responding to many exit polls.
I understand that the Jewish culture places an emphasis on social justice, hence their alligence to Democrats. If Glick is correct, then they are facing a new reality in the Democrat party.
It is a seismic shift. Too bad they don’t make up more in terms of voter numbers. However, they do have substantial influence in many other arenas and have been part of the Gramscian march, so I hope that changes also.
Interesting juxtaposition of this post and the one directly beneath.
The question of the trustworthiness of the US voting system vis-a-vis the polling pre/post-voting of unique demographic voting blocs.
Put me down in the “not trusting any of it” camp.
No offense, but I’m not discussing this issue anymore. Speaking just for myself, I’ve said all I have to say on it.
Again, no offense.
I think there is certainly some movement how far is unclear, i linked melanie phillips substacks on kamala and her opposite number lammy
Jewish guy doing tv interview on a NYC street:
https://x.com/ACTBrigitte/status/1831050448964325423
“I understand that the Jewish culture places an emphasis on social justice…”
I attended a Catholic high school run by Jesuits, and social justice is one of their big preoccupations. Now that I’m older, whenever I hear someone talking about social justice, what I hear is “hand over your money, middle class American.”
Has anyone noticed I’m big on the anecdotal? But hey, it’s a conversation starter. I once knew a guy, early in my career, with a stereotypical Jewish name, whose email address was something like johngalt157@something.com – a reference I immediately understood. I naturally thought it was ok to bring up politics with him. I was flabbergasted to learn he always votes Democrat, and he claimed at the time, he always would. When I challenged him on the obtuseness of democrats on economics, he said, “I know. I know. But I could never vote for anyone who’s against a woman’s right to choose.”
I have never in my life, outside of a few conservative leaning conferences I’ve attended, met a secular Jewish Republican. I hope Caroline Glick is right, and I will soon meet many.
Some of the big-dollar Jewish donors are seeing the light on the Jew-hating among Democrats. It was hidden, or they didn’t want to look, before Oct. 7.
Some things take more time than others. Eastern urbanites, including but not limited to Jews, might have seen more anti-Semitism than I have, living in the midwest.
Perhaps the eruption after October 7 was less of a surprise. For me, I can hardly comprehend where it’s been hiding. It can’t just….appear out of nowhere, can it. It had to be there, hidden, or simmering.
Or maybe the capacity for unreasoning hate was always there and followed the directions in the direction of anti-Semitism when the time was ripe.
But the stereotyped southern cracker as the Jews’ worst nightmare has taken a few shots recently.
Still, will it take another iteration to finish the job? Hate to think of what that would have to be.
Mike Plaiss (6:49 pm) said, “I have never in my life, outside of a few conservative leaning conferences I’ve attended, met a secular Jewish Republican.”
I am reasonably well-acquainted with four . . . they’re out there . . .
They take their ethnic Jewishness seriously (one is a hard core Zionist) but they’re not “into” the religious observances and so on. My impression is that they may show up for Jewish High Holy Day services, but I really don’t know. Does that qualify as secular?
If Glick’s prediction turns out to be correct, it will not signify that their leftist views have changed but only that fear for their survival requires ‘compromise’. Similar to ‘liberal/leftist’ Californians moving to Denver and Boulder Colorado and turning that State from red to blue…
M J R – close enough for government work.
Geoffrey Britain – agreed. They will have merely made a deal with a devil they don’t believe in anyway.
Outside of perhaps five commuter belts, Jews are not a consequential voting bloc. Their significance is their donations, organizational acumen, and legal talent. If half of that leaves the Democratic Party, the commonweal benefits. I suspect what has to happen is a general realization that rednecks and evangelicals are not hostile to Jews qua Jews and pose no threat to them. We’ll see.
Some of the big-dollar Jewish donors are seeing the light on the Jew-hating among Democrats.
–Kate
I’ve little doubt that Jewish donors punch considerably above their weight. I’d be curious how much.
I’d bet my house that the NYC Jewish vote for Trump is less than 50%.
William:
It’s a safe bet for one simple reason: no one will ever truly know what the Jewish vote in NYC really is. How does one define “Jewish” when doing exit polling, for example? And how would an exit pollster ever get the right balance of Orthodox, Conservative, Reform, and secular Jews willing to answer? You’d have to get a really large sample of Jews responding, and make sure the mix of categories is correct, as well as making sure you break it down that way (which pollsters almost never ever do; they merely lump “Jews” together in one big heap, and even then the numbers are small with large margins of error). In addition, for example, the Jewish demographics in different boroughs are quite different. It would take a very special poll to tease out the truth, and those polls are typically not done.
Geoffrey Britain:
I’ve seen plenty of Jews saying their minds have changed not just for this election, but about the left vs. right in general. I can’t say what percentage of vote-changers it would be, but it’s certainly most of the Jews who are vocal about it.
I’m surprised you think you can read people’s minds and you know that it’s “only” their desire for survival that motivates them.
Mike Plaiss:
Secular Jewish conservatives are relatively common, actually. I know some, plus one of those polls I cited in one of those articles I linked said that the number of secular Jews who are conservative is about one in five (somewhere between 17% and 22%).
And remember that most Jews in the US live in mostly blue cities (such as NY and LA) in which there are only small minorities of conservatives among most groups who live there.
Hi, NY Jewish voter here. I’m voting for Trump.
But, that would not be something I would say to a pollster or anyone in person— here in kindly, educated, tolerant lefty leafy NY. My trust factor is at zero.
It’s hard to tell if my political views changed -15 years ago- or the Democratic party did. Anyway, I am still a registered Democrat, mainly because I’m lazy, but also a chicken. It’s kind of like a low rent “gray man” in an aggressively blue bubble.
I’m a Democrat because my parents were. Although my parents also whispered urgently they voted for Reagan. I also noted that they whispered.
From what I can tell there just aren’t that many Jews. Even if we all agreed on anything our votes or dollars would not outweigh our value as universal scapegoats.
Obviously I’m biased about it, but antisemitism is a bad sign. To me, it’s not so much the ‘hate,’ but antisemitism is also a conspiracy theory about Jews.
A society falling for conspiracy theories is losing the plot.
Esther,
Sorry to hear about your situation, among so many of the ostentatiously virtuous, he Just and Righteous.
Fortunately, my situation allows me to say, “I will vote for Trump, again. What are you going to do about it?”
Actually, the second sentence is implied, not stated, but maybe somebody will take me up on it.
Hamas Rules = Democratic Party Rules…
…UNSURPRISINGLY:
“How Hamas Duped Pollsters into Exaggerating Its Popularity”—
https://mosaicmagazine.com/picks/politics-current-affairs/2024/09/how-hamas-duped-pollsters-into-exaggerating-its-popularity/
“Harris’ So-Called ‘Surge’ Is Thanks To Oversampling: Pollsters”—
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/harris-so-called-surge-thanks-oversampling-pollsters
+ Bonus:
Brendan O’Neill, adamant voice of conscience, in another scathing article…
“The deaths of these hostages shame the Western conscience;
“It is time to call out Western liberals’ craven silence in the face of Hamas’s fascism.”—
https://www.spiked-online.com/2024/09/01/the-deaths-of-these-hostages-shames-the-western-conscience/
H/T Powerline blog.
What has more significance than Jewish votes, is Jewish political donations.
Jewish American leadership is overwhelming Democrat. That is the real problem.
Musk said the ADL is one of the worst sources of contemporary antisemitism. That´s true. It does not matter how Jews vote, it does matters who their communal organizations support.
According to the spam I get daily from the “Justice Democrats,” Israel, anyone who supports them (hint, hint, Jews,) all normal people on any topic generally (hint, hint Jews,) and especially anyone who spends money to challenge them politically (hint, hint Jews) are fiendish, right wing, billionaire, Republican Trump supporters (and hint, hint Jews.)
“Democrats” are telling me, daily, what to do if I don’t want to be ruled by people who loathe me to my core (hint, hint, vote Republican)
That said, I’m not sure Jewish liberals abandoning the Democratic party to antisemitic control is a great idea either. But, they can, hint, hint, vote Republican.
There aren’t that many Jews that our votes matter. But, in the last election NY picked up enough Republican seats to give them the majority, so maybe a few votes do matter.
Justice democrats are the squad ignore them
Disagree. It matters how they vote in fragments of five metropolitan areas which collectively account for about 13% of the general population and close to half the Jewish population. It also matters to whom they donate. American Jews are an affluent and educated population. Few of them will be influenced by whichever schmuck is currently in charge of the Anti-Defamation League. Most have no affiliation, so the opinions of the local Reform rabbi do not reach them.
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I suspect the common life of the Jewish population would benefit if the ADL just disappeared. It was prior to 1992 somewhat twee. Abraham Foxman took to starting culture war pissing matches because of his own antagonisms and (one presumes) because he had time left over from the agency’s vigorous efforts to get obscure radio announcers fired from their jobs. Foxman’s successor has made it an arm of the Democratic Party. That does not benefit Jews. Jews might benefit from an organized effort to stare down Arab revanchists on college campuses, but a new organization might be more appropriate to that task.
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What would help outfits like J-Street and the ADL to disappear is if Jews at all social levels shut their wallets.
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I think Jews in general would benefit from reflecting on who is congenial to them and who is not. It isn’t evangelicals and rednecks proposing mass property seizures to benefit regime pets. They’re not on college campuses agitating for the welfare of violent Arab revanchists, either. There’s a lesson in there if American Jews are willing to learn it.
Art Deco
Jews aren’t the only ones looking down on rednecks and southerners. Those groups have been nominated the subhuman population to which anyone, no matter how lacking in talent, accomplishment, or even manners can feel superior merely by sneering at them.
So if Jews who do think that way are to change their views, there’ll be a fair amont of friction between them and their oh-so-superior friends. Could slow down the process.
Richard Aubrey: one of the best compliments I ever received was when a southern colleague called me a “redneck at heart”. I don’t think I rated it–e.g. I’ve never fixed a broken-down truck in the rain and the mud, as one of my redneck friends has–but it was nice to hear.
Since we are talking elsewhere about October 7 and the hostages, that same friend observed that if there had been a squad of Alabama rednecks with AR-15s and shotguns at the Nova rave, the massacre wouldn’t have happened. At least not to the attendees. There would have been bits and pieces of the paragliding terrorists scattered around, however.
Maybe this nickel will eventually drop with my co-religionists. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Hubert.
There’s an interesting comedy bit on youtube,
“Rednecks’ Louis Ramey.
Michigan sells 600k rifle deer permits every year. That’s a lot of guys who think they can walk through the woods with a rifle to some end. Half are right and the other half are saying, “two more days, dammit”.
Then there is a bunch who can hit what they aim at but don’t care for venison.
It’s said that, from the earliest times to today, no militia order has ever gone out because…whatever’s happening, guys have already shown up.
There was a straight-line wind hit a small town some years ago. Trees everywhere including across every street. Rumor had it that the state police were broadcasting that no more guys with chain saws were necessary, as the place was overloaded. About twenty minutes.
If it were considered that a couple of dozen Michiganders with rifles would be necessary, or at least a good idea maybe, at a public event, I can’t imagine the State’s obstructions.
Richard Aubrey: “Rumor had it that the state police were broadcasting that no more guys with chain saws were necessary, as the place was overloaded. About twenty minutes.” I believe it. Like the Cajun Navy during Hurricane Harvey.
Louis Ramey: “Nothin but beer cans and shotgun shells.” I’ve been to places like that. We called one of them “Bubbastan”. It was an ATV track/shooting range in the woods on the Alabama side of the Chattahoochee River. Beer cans and shell casings all over the place. It’s closed now, thank God.
Sharing Mr. Ramey with the class (cued up to the rednecks part):
https://youtu.be/KpSg8PfPQlU?si=bSEMokWsdnqgMSCJ&t=203
Thanks for the laugh.
New York secular Jewish republican here. Hi, Esther! I’m still a registered democrat so I can vote in the primaries, where all the action is. I’d probably lose my job if colleagues knew I voted for Trump (not kidding).
MrsX
Sorry to hear that. That the reverse is not remotely possible gives you a picture of the emotional…maturity?…sense of justice?…tolerance.?…of the two sides.
It also constrains your speech about various items and possibly even facial expressions at one or another piece of news.
Hubert.
Thanks for bringing up a memory…… Clears throat…”Far across the Chattahoochee….”
Having thieved the melody from Cornell
I was a 69 grad of Chattahoochee High, aka Infantry OCS at Benning. We maneuvered on the Alabama side of the river, in Quitman County. Quite a place. When resupplied, the instructor would wrap a couple of turns of toilet paper–instructors got the good stuff–around a tree to notify the locals and we would deposit such of our C-ration cans as we didn’t want to haul around–mostly Ham and Limas–for the locals. The machine gun teams were the gunner, the a-gunner and a kid with a basket to catch the brass for future sale.
One time, coming back from a week doing conventional stuff as opposed to Viet Nam-style snooping and pooping, we had some heavy equipment with us, shovels, axes and so forth. Detoured to stop a brush fire threatening a shack out in the woods. There’s the homeowner and his wife with shovels. Got it stopped, except for the outhouse. Passed the hat. Five bucks per Candidate, I suppose, was probably the best day that household had seen in some time.
Learned something every day, one way or another.
“Make eye contact with a redneck, you don’t have to check six.”
Richard Aubrey: nice story. I have a local friend who is also an alumnus of Benning School for Boys. He matriculated a little over ten years after your class and served with V Corps in Germany during the Cold War. He knows the song too.
Benning (I won’t call it Moore) is enormous. It starts literally at the southern edge of Columbus and goes on for miles through the Georgia pine woods. I drive through it on the way to a destination in Stewart County. The route takes me right past the tank sheds, or some of them. I’ve also visited the tank museum (officially the U.S. Army Armor & Cavalry Museum–sorry, Collection) there. High-speed tour of the collection from a couple of years ago by The Chieftain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mls-W9nXebQ
Haven’t been to the Infantry Museum yet.
Hubert.
My father is also a grad of the Benning School for Boys. I’m junior so there has been some confusion.
By the luck of the draw, or something, most of his guys were from the hills of the mid south.
He wouldn’t hear a word against them as long as he lived.
They stayed in touch until they all faded away.