The unpromising hostage negotiations
The hostage negotiations are great PR for the murderers of Hamas, as is the constant understandable pressure from many of the Israeli hostage families on the Israeli government. But Sinwar and the others have no intention of capitulating to any deal unless it involves their empowerment and continuation, basically an Israeli surrender. After all, they learned long ago up close and personal – Sinwar himself was freed from an Israeli prison in 2011 as part of the Shalit exchange – what extraordinarily lopsided deals Israel was willing to make with them in the past.
After releasing some prisoners in order to get many of the more vulnerable hostages back, Israel has not made any more deals and refuses to accede to Hamas’ unreasonable demands. It seems to me that’s a given; they really can’t afford to do so, or the whole war will have been in vain.
But Biden and Blinken and the rest of the crew in the current administration keep pretending that there is some sort of good faith cooperation on the part of Hamas, and that the deals negotiated on their behalf by parties such as Egypt and Qatar will be accepted by Sinwar, and that Israel could afford to give up what Hamas demands. It’s a charade that we’ve seen them go through many times. My guess is that the administration would dearly love for a deal to be made at any price, so it can claim negotiating victory and “peace for our time.” The MSM cooperates and writes optimistic pieces about how the deal is practically done, really in the bag – and then there’s the announcement that alas, it fell through again.
These cycles repeat and repeat like Lucy and the football. But Hamas has no intention of giving up whatever hostages might still be alive – if they even know who really is alive at this point – for anything short of an end to the war. That’s why Hamas took the hostages in the first place – that, and sadism. Blaming Israel for any of this is preposterous, and yet so many do.
The Hamas terror group published an official statement on Sunday evening in which it rejected the terms for a hostage release-ceasefire deal that were discussed in Doha on Thursday and Friday, and blamed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for putting up new obstacles in the talks.
Netanyahu, for his part, reportedly told cabinet ministers earlier on Sunday that he was pessimistic about the chances for a deal, especially given that Israel had been effectively negotiating with mediating countries rather than with Hamas, which refused to send a delegation to the latest round of talks.
“The chances are not high,” the Kan public broadcaster quoted Netanyahu as telling ministers.
You can say that again.
Here’s Blinken on the subject:
Speaking ahead of meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv, Blinken said, “This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a ceasefire, and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security.”
“I’m here as part of an intensive diplomatic effort on President Biden’s instructions to try to get this agreement to the line, and ultimately over the line. It’s time for it to get done,” he continued.
It’s a fiction that any deal with Hamas would get “everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security.” That’s not what Hamas wants – except the “peace” of ending the Israeli state and taking over the whole region, as well as Islam ultimately triumphing in the rest of the world.
“Netanyahu, for his part, reportedly told cabinet ministers earlier on Sunday that he was pessimistic about the chances for a deal, especially given that Israel had been effectively negotiating with mediating countries rather than with Hamas, which refused to send a delegation to the latest round of talks.”
If Hamas is not at the table negotiating then Israel should walk away from the discussions until they get directly involved. Whether in business or international relations, you are a fool if you negotiate with anyone but the person or group that is able to make commitments on behalf of the organization.
steve walsh:
That won’t work, either, in this case. Sinwar – the head of Hamas – is in hiding and won’t come out of hiding for negotiations. But the larger point is that Israel has a policy – and a correct one – that they don’t negotiate with terrorist organizations. That’s why Qatar and Egypt are the middlemen. Of course, that’s part of the reason these negotiations are a sham – you can’t and shouldn’t negotiate with terrorists, but they’re the ones who hold the hostages.
In the context of the pressures applied, arms twisted, subterfuges attempted and backstabbings cheerfully undertaken (all on the part of and in service to the Obama-Biden scheme to mollycoddle the Iranian tyranny and impose that tyranny upon the middle-east) Bibi’s patient ju-jitsu has been unfailingly amazing to behold. By far the most impressive record and exemplar of knowing statesmanship in our times, I think.
For Biden and his many Obamaphiles who believe in Barack’s “fundamental transformation” of the USA and the world (excluding Asia), Hamas and Hezbollah are quite OK. Muslims listen only to Allah, after all.
neo:
Thanks for the additional info. Though that doesn’t change the situation, just makes it more clear that as you say the “negotiations” are a sham. Seems Israel (Netanyahu) is participating for image and political reasons – to refuse to engage at all would be a bad look, but with the anti-Israel, pro-Hamas crowd it cannot be worse. Participating in the talks with Qatar and Egypt gives Israel’s allies some cover.
It’s a fiction that any deal with Hamas would get “everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security.”
I believe it’s equally a fiction that Blinken is following Biden’s instructions, and that if Biden has given any instructions at all, it’s because he was patiently told what “his” instructions are, probably by Blinken himself.
“a better path to enduring peace and security.”. How can anyone actually believe this, much less be an important person directly American foreign policy.
Talk Talk Talk, then use a very Big Stick.
Blinken wants us to believe his is incorrigibly fatuous.
Blinken has been one of Bidden’s coat holders going back to the Clarence Thomas Senate hearing. Biden was the chairman of the committee and did what he could to reject CT. Blinken was the head of Biden’s campaign in 2020 and orchestrated the infamous 50 Intelligence officials letter that claimed that Hunter’s laptop was Russian disinformation. Blinken knows exactly what Biden wants and carries out his orders. Both men are foreign policy nitwits. In my mind, the only issue is how Biden intends to pay off Blinken one of these days.
Sirwar reputedly has cancer according to leaked communications with
Kremlin officials
https://x.com/israelnewspulse/status/1825565620659757336
Blynken = Warren Christopher. Failure theatre personified.
Cutting off one of the Islamic hydra’s heads or even two or three of its heads… will not slay the beast. Slaying the beast is the only way to keep it from regrowing the heads that have been cut off.
Slay the ‘beast’ with migratory containment, eliminate the recruitment incentive (‘certainty’ of paradise) and attach to aggression and terrorism what in the mind of the enemy are unthinkable consequences.
Miguel, two years ago we were told Putin had cancer and wouldn’t survive very long. I’ll believe Sinwar is gone when I see the crowds carrying his coffin.
Why would the Russians want to tell this if Hamas promoted him of course of their hadnt been a prisoner exchange for shalit sinwar wouldnt have slouched to the top
If the U.S stood firmly behind Israel, demanding a surrender by Hamas before any negotiations could take place, what would Hamas do?
If the U.S. used Navy air power to wipeout the Houthi missile launchers and re-opened the Suez Canal, what would Hamas do?
If the U.S slapped sanctions on Iranian oil sales again, what would Hamas do?
They might not surrender, but they would certainly know that their scheme of fighting behind the Palestinian civilians was not working, and that the West was not fooled, or fuzzy headed, or cowardly, or whatever afflicts the big thinkers at Foggy Bottoms.
Appeasement has never worked against those who seek to destroy you. Especially if they are religious zealots. It sure won’t work this time.
J.J., I cannot understand why the Egyptians and Saudis have not worked together to obliterate the Houthis in Yemen, or at least asked the US to do it. Revenue from the Suez is very important to the Egyptian economy.
J.J.:
And if not just the US but the West made it clear to the terrorists of Palestine, Lebanon, the government of Iran, etc., that they would no longer be enabled in their anti-Israel and anti-Jewish war, things would be very very different. Unfortunately, though, that won’t be happening. And it won’t even happen in the US if Harris is elected.
“And if not just the US but the West made it clear to the terrorists of Palestine, Lebanon, the government of Iran, etc., that they would no longer be enabled in their anti-Israel and anti-Jewish war, things would be very very different.’ – Neo
Yep, and if we had clear-eyed thinking in our leadership, the rest of the democratic world know that it’s not just Israel and the Great Satan that are a risk. They would understand the big picture and be on board,
Unfortunately, too many democratic nations are too busy trying to get to net zero to notice that the entire democratic world is under threat. If not that, then they are marinating in their guilt about being wealthier than most of theocracies and autocracies.
In the video Neo posted a few days ago of Trump addressing the conference of a couple of Jewish organizations supporting his election, he said quite bluntly that he believes the hostages are all dead, and that’s why Hamas won’t settle on a deal, even one beneficial to themselves, that is less than total withdrawal by Israel.
By setting such an unreasonable condition, they never have to produce proof that the hostages are still alive — because they can’t.
I don’t know if Trump is correct or not (I suspect he’s close), but the audience took his bluntness without objection.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcBWEcru3_8
At about minute 22.
@ Kate: “I’ll believe Sinwar is gone when I see the crowds carrying his coffin.”
I am not sure that we can even believe that it is him in the coffin, unless there are approved reliable western witnesses taking a DNA sample from the corpse and matching it to his known living relatives [or perhaps from a known dead one?]
Report this morning that Netanyahu has accepted the proposed US-led cease fire proposal shifting the pressure to Hamas. Good move.
steve walsh:
I can’t find that – could you give a link? This is the sort of thing I see.
This has more detail than the headline I saw early this morning:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/confirming-netanyahu-accepts-us-deal-proposal-blinken-says-hamas-must-now-do-the-same/
Mike and Gadi discuss amongst other things this apparent shift in US State Department stance vis a vis Netanyahu’s refusal to budge on victory and holding ground along the Philadelphi corridor in today’s Israel Update: https://youtu.be/YlsvY2MKGg8?si=n71_7wwG6NefySA9
This time might be different.