Jewish voting patterns in the US, and in Israel
Many people seem extremely interested in this topic, far beyond what might be expected by the sheer numbers.
But it’s not as easy as one might think to poll Jews on their voting behavior. Here’s a discussion about it. The gist of the situation is that the numbers are small, there is no one group doing the polling and results depend on the pollster’s agenda, and a representative sample of Jews is very hard to get. The latter question is an especially important one because results depend on the number of Orthodox Jews polled, and it’s not an easy task to get that right and to get responses from that group.
Another problem with polling is that Jews in big blue cities vote differently than rural Jews or Jews in red states, so the mix of urban and rural, blue and red, has to be calibrated carefully, too.
I don’t think we really know that much about how Jews are voting, except that it’s virtually certain that the majority in this country vote as Democrats.
While I’m at it, there’s something else I’ve been meaning to mention, which is that I don’t think most people are aware of the huge differences between the Jews of the US and the Jews of Israel in terms of personal history and ethnicity. I’m not just talking about growing up in this country versus growing up in that country; I’m talking about background. Jews are far from a unitary group in either country, but in general the Jews of America are much less likely to be the direct descendants of Holocaust survivors. Sure, they have relatives who died in the Holocaust, but for the most part they are not close relatives, whereas the Ashkenazi Jews of Israel have a higher percentage of very close relatives who were murdered or who were Holocaust survivors with direct experience of the conflagration.
Another demographic difference is that only about half of Israel’s Jewish people are descended from European Jewry. The other half are refugees, and/or the children and grandchildren of refugees, from Arab countries. The US contains some of the latter group as well – in fact, I know a couple of them – but they constitute a much smaller percentage of America’s Jewish population than of Israel’s Jewish population.
Nearly half of all Israeli Jews are descended from Jews who made aliyah from Europe, while around the same number are descended from Jews who made aliyah from Arab countries, Iran, Turkey, and Central Asia. Over two hundred thousand are, or are descended from, Ethiopian and Indian Jews.
The Ashkenazi Jews of Israel are more inclined to be on the left and the Mizrahi Jews of Israel (those from Arab countries) are more inclined to be on the right (see this). And of course, as in the US, the more religious Jews in Israel have more children than less religious and/or secular Jews:
Haredi [ultra-Orthodox] women have 7.7 children on average while the average Israeli Jewish woman has over 3 children.
All of this affects voting behavior, and is one of the reasons – IMHO – that the Jews of Israel are to the right of Jewish voters here. It also sharpens the voting issues in Israel that people feel their lives are at stake, day after day, in a way so obvious it can’t be denied.
Another thought that has occurred to me about polling Jews in America or otherwise trying to generalize about them is that because of the high incidence of intermarriage in the last 2-3 generations it is a lot more ambiguous as to just who is “Jewish” now. When I was little – I’m close to your age, neo – intermarriage was rare so it was usually pretty clear who was of Jewish descent even among secular Jews. But this is no longer true. How do polls even decide who is “Jewish”? Just by asking if they somehow identify?
FOAF:
Yes, I think it’s just by self-report.
I once hired an attorney. During the course of several conversations with him he declared his wife was getting ready to deliver their 11th child. I congratulated him and asked why they were having so many children. He became very angry–announcing that they had to have babies to replace the numbers of Jewish people who had been killed during WWII ! He was born in the US and licensed to practice in CA.
I thought this experience might provide some insight to the subject!
A recently deceased friend was a Sephardic Jew from Morocco. She moved to the States when she married a US serviceman. One of her sons and several of her sisters moved to Israel. Because she had grown up with Arabs, she was much less likely to be fooled by Arab rhetoric than other Jewish people in the US. (Such as Arafat’s saying different things about the two-state solution to Western and to Arab audiences.)But that didn’t mean that she was hostile to Arabs. A neighbor of ours, a Muslim from Morocco, had his mother visit. Which my friend viewed as a great opportunity to get together and chat about the old country.
My friend was a die-hard Democrat. I didn’t argue politics with her. I knew she was Democrat, she knew I was Republican, and we let it go at that. In 2020, she changed parties and voted for Trump. There were at least two reasons for that. First, Trump was more pro-Israeli than previous Presidents- moving the embassy to Jerusalem and setting up peace accords between Israel and some Arab countries, for starters. Second, she was appalled by the “mostly peaceful” riots of 2020, and the “let ’em riot” attitude of Democrat mayors and governors. (It is possible that her two children in town, both Republicans, had gently persuaded her.)
One of her grandsons served with the IDF in Gaza, and then in northern Israel.
@neo:Another demographic difference is that only about half of Israel’s Jewish people are descended from European Jewry. The other half are refugees, and/or the children and grandchildren of refugees, from Arab countries.
I’m pretty sure that a significant fraction of Israeli Jews are descendants of Jews who have lived in Israel continuously since Roman times. This is compatible with the two “halves” you mentioned as people can be descended from multiple groups of people. I just though your phrasing–half from Europe, half from Arab countries–could be easily misinterpreted as reinforcing the “settler colonialism” description of Israeli Jews and I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t mean it that way.
Niketas, the fraction from those who have lived in Israel continuously is fairly small, probably less than 10%. A larger percentage are from those who arrived in the 19th century, well before a lot of the “Palestinians,” and worked to drain swamps and make the desert bloom.
And those from Arab countries are hardly settler colonialists. Most were forced out or fled for their lives from those countries in the 1930s and 40s (especially 1948), with their property confiscated other than what they could bring with them.
The Muslims were the colonialists, from medieval times through WWI.
Niketas:
Not only that, but DNA studies of Ashkenazi (European) Jews indicate that a great deal of their DNA has Middle Eastern origins, although some is European.
And of course the Mizrahi Jews never left the Middle East.
“Not only that, but DNA studies of Ashkenazi (European) Jews indicate that a great deal of their DNA has Middle Eastern origins, although some is European.
And of course the Mizrahi Jews never left the Middle East.”My beloved Mizrachi wife is a Turk whose family left Spain in 1492.
avi:
I was speaking generally. Of course there are exceptions.
I wonder, though, if your wife’s family might technically be considered Sephardic?
@neo:DNA studies of Ashkenazi (European) Jews indicate that a great deal of their DNA has Middle Eastern origins
Not surprising if they didn’t marry non-Jews much. Similarly, European Roma have a lot of their DNA from Northern India.
But I’m not sure how many of these genetic studies we read about actually establish ancestry as opposed to comparing frequencies between populations, journalists reporting on it are usually confused by the difference. For example they got this wrong on Cheddar Man. Yes, local history teacher Adrian Targett had some of the same mitochondrial DNA as Cheddar Man, but at most that could prove that they’re both descended from the same person. The article says, up front, that “Mr Targett, a 42-year-old history teacher in Cheddar, Somerset, has been shown by DNA tests to be a direct descendant, by his mother’s line, of Cheddar Man” and then contradicts it later, saying “the two men have a common maternal ancestor”. They propagate the same confusion regarding Sally Hemings and Thomas Jefferson: Hemings’ children being descended from a male Jefferson doesn’t mean it was Thomas Jefferson.
At any rate, the only reason I said anything about it is because I get tired of hearing from people on the Left and on the Right that Israeli Jews just showed up out of nowhere one day after having not been there for 1900 years.
@ Neo > ” It also sharpens the voting issues in Israel that people feel their lives are at stake, day after day, in a way so obvious it can’t be denied.”
In some parts of the USA and Europe, Jews are getting close to the same situation.
@ Niketas > “Israeli Jews just showed up out of nowhere one day after having not been there for 1900 years.”
Allowing for the ratio of God’s time to ours, that makes the Muslims & Arabs like squatters challenging a house-owner’s right to his own home.
“…he became very angry…”
What a bizarre reaction…
(Ought one wonder what kind of lawyer this fellow was? Trial lawyer? Divorce? OTOH he may have been having a bad-hair day…)
Related?
I was friendly with someone who came from a traditional/secular-leaning Jewish family. He had five siblings and those not aware of his background assumed he was Catholic…
Regarding continuous Jewish habitation in the Holy Land, there is one famous family who purportedly lived in the Galilee of Peki’in, but that family would be the exception that proves the rule: there weren’t very many such families.
(The remaining member of this family retains a home there but moved to Haifa years ago.)
There were those who were able to stay.
There were returnees from time to time; e.g., Maimonides lived in Tzfat (Safed) for a while (after having to flee Spain and living in what is currently Morocco), reputedly rejecting Richard Lionheart’s request to be his personal physician, after which he set up shop in Fostat (Old Cairo).
The famed Kabbalist Yosef Karo moved to Tzfat in the 17th century along with a contingent of disciples. Jerusalem traditionally had a majority Jewish population. In addition, not a few villages converted to Islam wholesale (there have been DNA tests) including some of the currently more anti-Israeli villages in the Hebron area.
Go figure….
Just a few examples….
I hesitate to publish something I observed in perusing this post, but I shall do so regardless of the opprobrium I expect to receive from some among the readership. The statement that “most Jews vote democrat” is a truth, as is the statement that, “most blacks vote democrat.” At one time, such statements could be made or heard and result in little, if any reaction beyond mere acknowledgement. Then the democrat party decided it should become the party of “fundamental transformation” of America, and those of us who did not particularly wish to have our country so transformed could no longer brush such things off as inconsequential. As time has gone on, the democrat party has become more and more obviously a party whose membership disdains, dislikes and wishes to eliminate traditional America and replace it with… what? It is not entirely clear, but it is clear that the destruction of the status quo is the driving force behind democrat politics. So what does that mean in connection with the demographics of democrat voting groups? Given the human tendency to generalize, it means that many of us in the traditional American bloc now view all Jews and blacks as our enemies, hence accounting for the increasing amount of tension, hostility and suspicion between us and those we generalize as being our enemies. And so rather than viewing our neighbors as individuals, we stereotype. At one time, such stereotyping could be regarded as having little or no basis in fact, and thus wrongheaded, but today, the stereotype has become the rule, which only serves to validate and reinforce it. (Of course, it is equally true that those among the democrat voting blocs equally stereotype tradtional Americans as “racists/bigots/homophobes,” etc. so it works in both directions.) Thus, unfortunately, we are at a time when group identity predominates. This is exactly what the left aimed to do, as it always does; to separate people according to groups, rather than individuals, so to that extent, the left has succeeded.
accordingly, it should come as no suprise when Americans of Christian European descent regard all jews and all blacks as holding views inimical to our continued existence and exhibit the expected hostility. Until it becomes the rule that “most Jews/blacks” cease to vote democrat–meaning cease to desire the overthrow of our Constitutional republic and its replacement with something else–we shall probably continue to see an exacerbation of the hostility with which we view each other.
Steve: thanks for your comment. I agree with it. American politics aren’t played between the 45-yard lines anymore. The stakes for traditional America–the America you and I grew up in and loved–are existential.
Last year, sometime commenter DNW alluded to certain questions that are verboten “…simply because they are unresolvable or even impossible to discuss profitably; being at least unresolvable under certain operating assumptions.”
Here are three third-rail issues that it’s nearly impossible to discuss profitably on this and most other blogs:
1. The role of politically empowered women–especially Affluent White Female Liberals (AWFLs)–in the deliberate destruction of traditional America.
2. The role of left-wing and/or communist Jews in the deliberate destruction of traditional America. I’m Jewish, but I harbor a very special loathing for these people, especially sneaky red-diaper babies like Marc Elias. This was the source of the most heated political arguments I ever had with my parents, good FDR/Cold War liberals who experienced anti-semitism firsthand in the 1930s-1940s and viewed any criticism of Jews-as-Jews as incipient Jew-hatred–an attitude that I suspect is shared by our host. It is indeed true that American Jews who are critical of the political behavior of their fellow Jews can quickly find themselves in very bad company.
3. The role of (some, not all) politically empowered homosexuals in the deliberate destruction of traditional America.
Anyway, thanks again for straightforwardly addressing one of them. And to the point of this post: yes, Israeli Jews, whom I occasionally encountered during my years in academe, are a different breed of cat from diaspora Jews. Even the lefties.
Steve (retired/recovering lawyer):
It’s interesting that you – or perhaps not you, but those people you’re writing about – lump together Jews and blacks as though the numbers are the same for both groups. But not only are there far more black Americans than Jews in America – and therefore the black vote is far more determinative of the outcome – but black voters are far more monolithic than Jewish voters in their preference for Democrats (often in the 90+ percent range for blacks versus about 70% for Jews).
It’s interesting, also, that Buddhists and Hindus vote Democratic in percentages even greater than Jews do, and yet I don’t think many people bother to hate Buddhists and Hindus. Funny thing, that; it would almost make a person believe that the hatred for Jews and blacks isn’t really about each group’s voting behavior.
And what of agnostics? They are overwhelmingly Democrats, too, but I’ve never noticed anyone bothering to hate them.
You also write: “it is clear that the destruction of the status quo is the driving force behind democrat politics.” That may be the way many people on the right perceive it, but it’s an error to believe that people voting for Democrats all see it that way too. Dedicated leftists see it that way and are pleased to destroy traditions and the status quo, but a great many of the people I know who vote for Democrats see such a vote as primarily a “nice” thing to do, a “kind” thing to do, a “non-racist” thing to do.
Neo
WRT your last graf above. I make it a point to be in discussion groups as the opportunity arises. I’m “on the periphery” as one guy said.
These people may be saying they’re voting “nice” and “kind”. But they know better. They know the alternatives.
There are exceptions. Some are still outraged about the Floyd thing in Minneapolis. But they don’t know Justine Damond ever existed. Nor are they going to expose themselves to the possibility they might find out such things.
They know about Kyle Rittenhouse but profess–honestly or not–to never have heard of Darrell Brooks.
After the BLM/antifa riots, they still think the most dangerous group in the country are a bunch of white guys bearing tiki torches.
Are they fooling themselves? Trying to fool us? Avoiding the obvious in order to feel “nice” and “kind”?
They’ll tell you, in discussions, they dislike those aspects of US and western civilization the left is trying to destroy.
Voting in such patterns rarely costs you. The catastrophe you voted for rarely shows up at your front door with a copy of your ballot attached. (this clever thought may be used without attribution)
I have a relation who was very pleased that California fast-food workers were going to have a $20/hr, minimum wage. Just and proper she said. So that’s an emotional win for her. When the perfectly predictable jobs losses occurred, she referred to the employers as “greedy”. Another triumph of virtue. She lives about two thousand miles away from the issue. No problem for her. Win-win.
But, as Prager and Telushkin “Why The Jews?” and Thomas Sowell, in “The Minority Middleman” make clear, those folks have to be particularly on the ball all the time. If only trying to know when it’s time to up sticks and change hemispheres. Wishful thinking is several degrees less useful for them.
People voting and acting in such a fashion as to destroy the US can be condemned for indulging their need for a virtuous self-image. But those who do or should know better are a different class.
I don’t “hate” the Jews who do this any more than I “hate” others who do. But, of all of them, maybe Jews should know better, at least a bit.
“I wonder, though, if your wife’s family might technically be considered Sephardic?“
Absolutely. And Sephardic Tur- which means true Sephardic from Spain. In the early years of the state, they kind of just called everybody who was not Eastern European Sephardic, including people from Yemen, and Iran who never said foot in Spain. I always thought that was a mistake but now it’s gradually being changed to Safardic and Mizrachi although there’s much overlap.
Dear Neo,
And I do mean “dear,” because I am quite fond of you (despite my total lack of understanding of or interest in ballet), allow me to further elaborate on your response to my comment. First, I am not aware that American hindus, agnostics or buddhists make an issue of their status, nor demand special treatment on account of it; in fact, at least at this point in time in America, they pretty much go unnoticed, despite the size of their cohort, so nobody outside these groups really knows or cares how they vote. Maybe not hindus or buddhists so much, but I suspect that the cohort identifying as “agnostic” is impressively large. It’s hard to know, simply because they do not seek to emphasize their group cohesion or identity, contrary to jews and blacks, who make their ethnicity a primary concern. I will admit that both jews and blacks have a reason to do so, but regardless, their group identity is very strong. So when an ethnic or religious group that strongly identifies qua group also makes well known its political affinity, it is inescapable that others will link the ethnicity/religion and political affiliation in their mind. So, we have the current emphasis on “blacks and jews are mostly democrat,” at the same time we see that the democrat party seeks to overthrow traditional America. It’s simply impossible not to notice the correlation. And as for your second observation that people voting democrat do not all wish for the destruction of traditional America, I assume that is true, but only because they are too stupid or inattentive to realize what the democrat party is actively seeking to do. Not all germans who voted for the NSDAP were nazis, but by so voting, they were complicit in producing the horrors of nazi germany. As with them, so with today’s democrat voter. Having said this, allow me to (again) state that I strongly support the nation of israel as an ethnostate for jews. I strongly support the right of jews in this country to worship as their religion dictates. I strongly reject the notion of group responsibility, whether the group is black, jewish or white christians. I shall continue to follow with interest your blog with gratitude for sharing your informed opinions with the rest of us.
“ . How do polls even decide who is “Jewish”? Just by asking if they somehow identify?“
JSTREET uses Jewish sounding names which essentially excludes Soviet Jews with Russian surnames and Jew with Sephardic and Mizrchi names Outside of Levi and Cohen. But it would include goyim like Emhoff’s Nazi daughter and Former Senator William Cohen andAmy Schumer. Hence their polls skew left.
There is a gradual but major kulturkamf and resetting of the Jewish electorate in America and in Israel.
Traditionally, the numbers and power were in the hands of secular liberals That controlled federations and federation newspapers and the Jewish telegraph agency and use their media power to minimize any alternative Thinking. Most American shoes had been from the wave of 1882 1910 from me Russian Empire, and with the least religiously observant segments of the community because they would reject their rabbis advice not to go to America.
They came and largely intermarried in aredisappearing slowly.
During and after World War II, there was an influx of small but unassimilable very Orthodox Jews Who do the massive rate have been growing slowly and now rapidly have taken over communities like Lakewood and Rockland County New York. They are politically very conservative and traditional, and do not care hoot about what JTA says. Along with Meena growing as fast are modern orthodox Jews, as well as saphardim and mizrachi and Soviet Jews All who are mega Trumpists.
The reason why the recent Paul in New York showing 50% support for Trump is not because those who still believe in FDRYMS Suddenly realized that he was a scumbag. No, they will believe that their death, but they are dying off. Vermin like Rob, Reiner and Emmhoff and Mark Elias And Soros Are not having a return to Judaism moment and are not suddenly putting on tefillin with Chabad. No, because they don’t marry Jewish get castrated or if they do marry Jewish have one child and demographically they are dying off. Good riddance.
As we’ve heard, Israeli Jews more right-wing after Oct. 7
“Oct. 7 caused a complete collapse of the old Israeli left.”
It’s a significant shift. There’s getting mugged by reality. Then there’s getting butchered, massacred, slaughtered, burned alive, and a baby baked in a oven. Those sorts of things leave an impression.
The attorney I was working with was a business attorney. There were no emotions involved. Unfortunately, he failed to file the necessary paperwork.
Steve (retired/recovering lawyer):
Massive paragraphs are very difficult to read. Please in the future consider breaking up your posts into much smaller paragraphs.
Thanks.