The Shapiro snub and the Jewish vote
Commenter “Richard Aubrey” asks a question:
Did dumping—or scaring off–Shapiro do enough to catch the attention of non-observant Jews?
Shapiro’s observant. But does “No Jews Need Apply” get the attention of the ethnic-only Jews?
Let me first note that even non-religious, ethnic-only Jews are not all Democrats. This poll taken in 2020 indicates that something between 19% and 22% of non-religious Jews were Republicans at that time, and I would guess that figure has gone up to some unknown extent since then. Although Richard Aubrey’s question appears to lump all ethnic-only Jews together, I’ll assume that his question only applies to those “ethnic-only” Jewish voters who would be inclined to vote for Harris in the first place. So my response in this post only applies to that latter group.
I obviously can’t answer the question about how many will notice, because no one can answer that question unless a poll were to be taken of that group about that specific question. But my contention is that, for most of them, even if they did notice, it wouldn’t matter in terms of their votes and they would still vote for Harris/Walz. They would give any of the following reasons, and some would probably give some combination of these reasons. Nor would this be limited to Jewish voters; these reasons would be available to any Democrats or swing voters who are not rabidly anti-Semitic, and numbers 2-7 would be available to any Democrats or swing voters who are not rabidly anti-Semitic and rabidly anti-Israel:
(1) They would say that Shapiro was rejected because he is pro-Israel rather than because he’s Jewish, and they don’t support Israel either.
(2) They would say that even though the rejection of Shapiro was unfortunate, it was a pragmatic decision by Harris (or her advisors) that made sense, because dumping Shapiro would help Kamala win and winning is all that matters at this point because Trump is tantamount to Hitler.
(3) They are deeply upset by Shapiro’s rejection and think the ticket is the worse for it, but will vote for Kamala anyway because Trump is tantamount to Hitler.
(4) They are low-information voters and don’t even know it happened.
(5) They are low-information voters and have never heard of Shapiro.
(6) They are aware that Harris didn’t choose Shapiro but they deny that it had anything to do with his being a Jew or his stance on Israel.
(7) They are aware of the the event but believe that it was Shapiro who said “no” to Harris (which may even be true).
The point is that there are many avenues available to those who might have any cognitive dissonance about what happened to Shapiro. Cognitive dissonance is generally an uncomfortable experience, and people – not just Democrats, not just leftists, not just Jews (ethnic or otherwise) – will usually go to great lengths to rationalize it away or reason it away.
Neo,
And just as you posted this, a new article comes up at Townhall about how Walz is all buddy-buddy with a Minnesota imam who celebrated Oct 7. His relation with the cleric goes back to 2019.
As you say, will it make any difference? Probably not.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/rebeccadowns/2024/08/09/tim-walz-met-with-anti-israel-imam-n2643191
I know neo has said it many times already, but there’s something like 8 million Jews in the US and they are overwhelmingly concentrated in deep blue areas, and their electoral significance on Shapiro or any other issue would appear to be a rounding error.
There are about 5 million Chinese Americans, 4.5 million Indian Americans*, and 4.0 million Filipino Americans, with another 6.5 million Asian Americans of other ethnicities. Collectively we spend far less time talking about what Asian Americans might think about this or that than we do of what Jews might be thinking.
I think that for people in the media, disproportionately concentrated in areas with lots of Jews, it’s natural for them to overstate this, and for the rest of us it’s probably a habit from the times when Jews were more electorally significant than they are today.
*U. S. Census considers them a subset of Asian.
@physicsguy:As you say, will it make any difference? Probably not.
It might help the Dem ticket out in Michigan.
Yeah, it’s interesting. The total Muslim population in the US is only around 4.5 million. But there’s a significant concentration in Michigan that is a key swing state (it went for Trump in 2016). Meanwhile most Jewish people (“ethnic only” or otherwise) don’t have a concentration in any real swing states or districts but are rather primarily found in very deep blue enclaves. Consequently their votes really don’t matter that much to Democrats. To be fair, their donation money is important though.
Niketas:
You’re brought up a big topic. I agree that people care way disproportionately about Jews if you look at the number of Jews in this country or in the world – and by “care” I mean both for good and for bad. I may take this up in a future post.
But I do want to question you about what you mean by saying that in the past Jews were more electorally significant than they are today. That’s not what the numbers seem to indicate; the Jewish population of the US has always been low, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage, and has long been concentrated in cities that are Democratic strongholds. Before the 1900s that featured an influx of Eastern European Jews, the Jews in the US were mostly German Jews and were predominantly politically conservative.
Niketas:
One more thing to reflect on in terms of Jews taking on significance in people’s minds out of proportion to their numbers – you may or may not have been aware of this before, but please take a look at the statistics on the number of Jews in Germany prior to WWII.
Meanwhile most Jewish people (“ethnic only” or otherwise) don’t have a concentration in any real swing states or districts but are rather primarily found in very deep blue enclaves.
There are over 400,000 Jews in PA, and around 150,000 in each of GA, VA, and AZ. Given that Jews have high turnout rates, a 10% or so swing of Jews from D to R in any of those states could be significant.
I just want to kick in, as I’m wont do do, that people change slowly. Even Jews.
If I may say, though I’ll say it anyway, conservatives often fixate on who to blame rather than how to fix the problem.
From recent polls I gather that American Jews are now shifting conservative.
Do we celebrate this or blame Jews for not getting there faster?
@neo:But I do want to question you about what you mean by saying that in the past Jews were more electorally significant than they are today.
It’s a good question. Maybe it’s just that I only know the past through reading what was written, and the same kind of exaggeration may well have been going on then for much the same reasons? The period I had in mind was the 1920s – 1950s, when labor and the Old Left were also much more electorally significant. I’d be prepared to accept that by the numbers it never mattered all that much. The writers I’ve read from those times were disproportionately Jewish themselves or living in disproportionately Jewish areas, and perhaps that’s why I might be overestimating their past significance.
Writers write for other writers and about people like themselves, and I keep forgetting this, even as I deliberately try to seek out evidence of the lives of people who didn’t leave writings behind. This too is a big topic.
you may or may not have been aware of this before, but please take a look at the statistics on the number of Jews in Germany prior to WWII.
I was aware of them, but thanks for the reminder. However, I don’t think this in itself is likely to explain the overemphasis. After all something like 100 million Asians died thanks to WWII and Communism, and hundreds of thousands of Asians fled here as a result, and yet we don’t spend much time in American politics on what Asian Americans think. (I do understand that the methods and objectives of the Holocaust were not those operating in Asia, when those tens of millions died, and maybe that’s part of it. But most Americans are at least aware of the Holocaust, and not about things that happened in Asia no matter the magnitude.)
Welcome to all who see what’s going on and try to help stop it, whatever their faith or ancestry, even if there aren’t enough of them to turn the tide. Unfortunately none of the Jews I know in real life are planning to vote against Harris–quite the contrary. They’re far more afraid of rednecks than they are of the people who actually advocate killing Jews, and have forgotten everything they used to know about Trump and instead have hitched to the media narrative that he’s racist, anti-gay, Hitler 2.0, etc.
Republicans are fairly competitive among the Orthodox and among certain recent immigrant cohorts in the Jewish population, and fail among the rest. The advantage the Democratic Party had among Ellis Island ethnics began to dissipate 60 years ago and is now gone, for the most part. It remains vigorous among Jews. What has to happen, IMO, is that the threat to their material interests presented by the Democratic Party is alarming to them to a degree which cancels out their abiding antagonism to consequential segments of the Republican electorate.
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Jews carry little demographic weight outside of about five commuter belts. Four of those commuter belts are so blue that the loss of the Jewish vote would not be noticed outside of a suburban municipality here or there. What Jews provide to the Democratic Party is organizational acumen, legal muscle, funds, and a pool of people willing to run for office. Right now, about 12% of the Democrats in Congress are Jews.
I can’t believe anyone actually buys that Walz is not a Jew. I doubt the Muslims buy it. Jewish organizations praised the choice putting out articles about his long history with the Jewish community. And his insane commitment to the T agenda altogether proves he is a Jew.
neo, I’m curious as to how you know that, prior to the 1900s (i.e. 19th century and earlier), most Jews were politically conservative? Maybe they were or maybe they weren’t, but where is the evidence for it either way? I am not prepared to say that just because most pre-1900 Jews in America were from the German lands (is that true? how do we know?), but I do suspect that German Jews, who were famously well-educated and mostly urban in their origins, leaned to the political/ideological left, a stance which had been gaining adherents throughout Western Europe since the end of the Napoleonic Wars. The revolutions of 1848 attest to that trend, as do Bismarck’s later (but not too much later) successful efforts to buy off the German working class with the establishment of a welfare state. I would venture to say that the Jews of the great Eastern European Jewish diaspora/migration — the shtetle and rural Jewish populations of Eastern Europe and Russia — were far more conservative, at least in the social sense, than their Western European co-religionists, who as time went on became increasingly cosmopolitan and, I daresay, progressive in their political views.
Republicans are fairly competitive among the Orthodox and among certain recent immigrant cohorts in the Jewish population, and fail among the rest.
Yes, those immigrant cohorts include Russians and also Jews from Iran, the Middle East, and North Africa, and even Europe. Most of those I know tend to be politically conservative (maybe not a random sample, but I think accurate), whether or not they are Orthodox. So whatever changes in voting patterns may be occurring, it may not be so much individuals changing their views, but more the demographics changing.
Unfortunately none of the Jews I know in real life are planning to vote against Harris–quite the contrary. They’re far more afraid of rednecks than they are of the people who actually advocate killing Jews, and have forgotten everything they used to know about Trump and instead have hitched to the media narrative that he’s racist, anti-gay, Hitler 2.0, etc.
That has been, and remains, my experience as well. Sorry to have to say it, neo, but I call ’em as I see ’em.
I assume “Jeff Smith” above is a troll. Walz is of northern European descent, was raised Catholic, and now belongs to a radical ELCA (Lutheran) congregation in St. Paul, MN. Church info: https://protestia.com/2024/08/07/vice-president-pick-tim-walzs-lutheran-church-is-a-trainwreck-of-heresy-and-blasphemy/#google_vignette
Jimmy:
Yes, there are a few places where a change in the vote of Jewish people would matter – but even in those places they are a small group that is focused on WAY out of proportion to their actual numbers compared to many other groups. The question is why. I have some ideas about that and might write a future post about it.
My impression is that Orthodox Jews are mostly in for Republicans now. I suspect that is where the numbers come from.
There is some similar shift among other Jews, but not nearly as large.
IrishOtter:
I am aware of the Republican earlier lean of German Jews in the US from a host of sources too numerous to mention, but a very quick one for you to look at would be this.
huxley:
The numbers I gave in this post for Jewish Republicans were for NON-religious Jews only.
Orthodox Jews are far more heavily Republican, with 75% identifying as Republicans. And although I can’t find the source at the moment, I recall reading that Orthodox Jews voted over 80% for Trump in 2020.
Niketas:
I know quite a few not especially religious Jews who will not be voting for Harris.
However, the majority of Jews I know will be voting for Harris, but not because they’re afraid of rednecks. They will be voting for Harris because of the usual reasons most lifelong Democrats of any religion or ethnicity will be voting for Harris.
Jeff Smith:
Are you a paid troll or just doing it for the love of the game?
Oh, and thanks for your remarkable and brilliant insight that anyone in favor of T rights is Jewish, QED.
@neo:I know quite a few not especially religious Jews who will not be voting for Harris.
I would like to think I did too, but it would be career-ending for them to say so, or for me to try to find it out from them. Perhaps the more vocally pro-Harris are just covering. It’s not even safe to be apolitical, here, without some kind of cover story that makes it okay.
neo:
You said:
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This poll taken in 2020 indicates that something between 19% and 22% of non-religious Jews were Republicans at that time, and I would guess that figure has gone up to some unknown extent since then
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Agreed.
It will be interesting to see if that 19-22% number goes up. I would argue that it will or maybe already has.
I hope you keep us updated.
My point is that fundamentally changing one’s politics doesn’t come easy. I dislike the conservative bent to blame the Jews (or any other group) that they aren’t changing fast enough.
the trolls have week fu, do better,
if Walz was a Southern Baptist, he would still be a moron, or worse,
yes Martin Luther might wonder where he went wrong, then again the German branch of Lutheranism isn’t that solid either,
Jewish people are too small a demographic to affect a national election with their votes alone. Even if every single Jew in this country cast a vote for trump, it wouldn’t affect the electoral college tally. The only noticeable change would be that Harris wins New York by 20%, not 30%.
However, if every Muslim voter sat out the election because of Shapiro, Harris would be in danger of losing Michigan and potentially the whole election. Not choosing Shapiro makes it much easier for the Democrats to fortify the election for Harris in Detroit.
Kate:
On Walz’s religion. Certainly not Jewish.
huxley:
Agreed.
How do we know that Harris’s team dropped Shapiro and he didn’t drop them? It must have been flattering for him to think that he might have the second job in the country, but maybe he thought that this wasn’t his year, or that Harris couldn’t win, or that he didn’t want to serve with her? He wouldn’t be the first (potential) subordinate to quit on Harris. I wouldn’t see it as necessarily a snub. Maybe there was a cooling off on both sides.
Abraxas:
That’s #7 on my list in the post.
probably so, but he did seem like the mark at that philadelphia rally, after he abased himself, from some perspectives
he did have the sexual harrassment issue with his aide, plus that misdiagnosed
suicide, to worry about, minnesota fats seems to have a steamer trunk of baggage attached,
from the maggies farm link (its back)
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/arts-letters/articles/fact-crisis-at-the-new-yorker
I suppose this wasn’t the time to raise the question, but I wasn’t speaking of the electoral effect.
I was wondering about the phenomenon of change–or not change.
But, due to the campaign, it seemed we had a pretty solid case, an experiment with many variables not applying, this time. So we have the question at campaign time.
As it happens, some of the people supported by and supporting Harris/Walz would happily kill some of the Jews. And I’m talking about those already resident in the US of A.
Why this doesn’t make more of an impact is beyond me. Except, in earlier discussions, we’ve talked about the case that certain beliefs or belief systems support the self-image of the believer. I believe this, therefore I’m a good person. Contradictory facts thus threaten the self-image by threatening the Highly Virtuous Belief. The former can’t do without the latter.
I suppose one might say that is a lame personality which doesn’t have enough self-worth that it has to go hunting the Sanctified Very Virtuous Belief(s) for support. Likely, an easy sale.
But to support those whose minions want to kill you….and you know it….
And all you’ve got is TRUMP!!! for factual, real-world support.
As Heinlein said, man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal. But you’d think evolution’s watchfulness would have pared that propensity down some. A million years’ worth of opportunity to encounter reality.
Well, if the good guys have to turn out to protect the deluded, it won’t be the first time.
Not sure I should get a kick out of saying it but it will be funny/sad when Jews discover their safe spaces are NASCAR events and Baptist churches.
I really hate to say this. There is a church in our area which is so pro-Palestine that I wouldn’t bet a Jew hiding there could be sure he wouldn’t be betrayed. They’re not Baptist.
Richard Aubrey:
What domestic Jew-killers are you talking about? I follow these things fairly carefully, and all I can think of are some wacko professors on Twitter and a portion of the street demonstrators and that sort of thing, not anyone most people or most Jews would connect to Harris/Walz. Nor do Harris or Walz advocate killing American Jews, nor does even a pro-Hamas anti-Semite like Tlaib.
If you’re talking about some of the pro-Hamas demonstrators, most people have no idea how bad their rhetoric is. And for the most part, they are angry at Harris for not being anti-Semitic enough; for example, they heckled her at a recent appearance of hers (and they called Biden “genocide Joe”).
Please be more specific.
Kate: unfortunately, your 100% correct about the ELCA. I was raised ALC, and am horrified by the track the ELCA has gone down.
I guess I am an Independent Lutheran.
It is definitely possible (I have no idea how likely) that Shapiro turned down Harris rather than vice-versa. But if he did it is likely one of the reasons was *because* of all the talk already out there about the Dem base not wanting a Jewish candidate. So that should not be used as a reason to “excuse” the Democrats of antisemitism.
My wife and I grew up in Southern Orthodox Jewish families which were in practice closer to the middle of Jewish religious practice. My parents, who experienced the depression were Democrats. My maternal grandfather however, owner of a furniture business and a builder, was one of the unique Republicans in our Jewish community. I guess I got my conservative gene from him. My wife is more hardcore than me and though her best friend is a Manhattan liberal, she has to watch her tongue to preserve their relationship.
Neo.
It doesn’t take many wackos to run up a substantial casualty list. Go where the victims gather, shoot, stab, run over with a car. And, as you point out, there are enough. Point, however, is that there is a substantial number who…do not…quite have the opportunity. But would certainly cheer.
Remember, Crooks had explosives in his car….
Harris/Walz do not dismiss groups who would certainly cheer, and one per cent of that number is sufficient to cause a tragedy.
But, for some people, it’s TRUMP!!!! and that is all that matters.
A puzzlement.
Discussion re Shapiro was rejected (because he’s Jewish) vs he declined the offer to be VP candidate
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Reports that an “interview” between Shapiro and Harris did not go well
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Harris told Shapiro that she would pick him if he would only STFU about Israel, and he declined to promise that he would do so.
Richard Aubrey:
The question is not whether a few wackos exist or whether they can do damage. It’s whether Harris is perceived as allied with them. She’s not perceived that way.
Niketas…”Unfortunately none of the Jews I know in real life are planning to vote against Harris–quite the contrary. They’re far more afraid of rednecks than they are of the people who actually advocate killing Jews”
I do know Jews IRL who are planning to vote against Harris, but the phenomenon you mention is a real one, and not only among Jews, but common among highly-educated people in general. I discussed and analyzed this at length in my post The Phobia(s) That May Destroy America:
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I am continually dismayed by the level of fear, contempt, and anger that many educated/urban/upper-middle-class people demonstrate toward Christians and rural people (especially southerners). This complex of negative emotions often greatly exceeds anything that these same people feel toward radical Islamists or dangerous rogue-state governments. I’m not a Christian myself, but I’d think that one would be a lot more worried about people who want to cut your head off, blow you up, or at a bare minimum shut down your freedom of speech than about people who want to talk to you about Jesus (or Nascar!)
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https://ricochet.com/548927/the-phobias-that-may-destroy-america-2/
Neo
Granted as to direct statements. But policies with Israel, scumming for Muslim votes, so forth will invariably bring in wackos and those one degree of separation from them. Multiples cheering the same.
Walz ditto if not worse
In addition to Confirmation Bias, there is also Motivated Reasoning: the tendency to distort one’s thinking to avoid conclusions which would lead to undesirable things. If one’s friends and/or work colleagues are almost all strongly of one political view, and not shy about expressing it, then there will be a strong tendency to skew one’s own thinking in that way to avoid unpleasantness.
Women seem on the average to find going against the Group even harder than men do, and I think this has much to do with gender differences in political beliefs.
Richard Aubrey:
You and I may think it’s obvious that Harris and Walz enable such people. But I don’t think it’s so obvious that failure to see it is inexplicable.
neo
Couple of decades ago, I found my high school–class of 62–yearbook. Some nice things said within, but two said I was “so” or “too” logical. Which is to say that 2+2=4, no matter what I think about it.
And so should others. They don’t?
So I have a problem with the “inexplicable” thing. Is it possible to make an argument in good faith that “supporting” the palestinians in Gaza doesn’t mean, necessarily and with chains of iron–connecting with the fervent wish Hamas prevail? That Israel surrender to the ante-bellum status of frequent raids on their citizens? Or commit suicide?
Sure. Hamas surrenders. Best thing that could happen to Gaza and its inhabitants. That’s not something I hear much of.
So, logically and realistically, one cannot support “Palestine” without calling for the deaths of Jews. Is anybody stupid enough not to get that?
I guess that’s my point. Who’s stupid enough not to get the connection? So it has to be evaded, in order to keep believing in TRUMP!!! They know it, they know better–can’t not–but what’s so strong in them that the support for Hamas must be submerged as an issue?
Don’t know about the impact on the election, but a parent who’s had their kids beaten, flunked and expelled at school or college would have to take notice.
You’d think parents would notice. Maybe, say, University of Alabama is going to get more out of state applicants than usual.